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WW 624 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY MO 152240Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Extreme southwestern Indiana Northwestern Kentucky Southeastern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 540 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A growing cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms should continue to pose severe-weather potential across southern IL and to the adjoining Ohio Valley. Additional development is possible over southeastern Missouri to its west as well. Occasional severe gusts and large hail are the main concerns, and a tornado cannot be ruled out The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Farmington MO to 30 miles south southeast of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Edwards Read more

Hoot-owl restrictions were issued for the Yellowstone River from the Highway 89 Bridge Fishing Access Site east of Livingston to the Highway 212 bridge in Laurel because water temperatures were high and flows were low. The restrictions took effect on July 27 and prohibit all fishing from 2 p.m. to midnight daily. KTVQ-TV Q2 (Billings, Mont.), July 26, 2024

Dry weather this summer in Kentucky has left hay growers with almost no regrowth. Cattle producers were worried about maintaining their livestock through the coming winter. Morning Ag Clips (Greenwich, N.Y.), Aug 15, 2024

MD 1908 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri and southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152003Z - 152230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development appears possible as early as 5-7 PM CDT. One or two supercells may evolve, posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some potential for a tornado. DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for convective development remains generally weak and/or unclear. However, a seasonably moist boundary-layer along and east of the southeastward advancing weak surface troughing is becoming moderately unstable across parts of northeast Kansas into southern Iowa, where CAPE now appears in excess of 2000 J/kg and mid-level inhibition is eroding. This is being aided by both continuing insolation and mid-level cooling associated with a notable short wave perturbation pivoting across the mid to lower Missouri Valley vicinity. As the exit region of a 40-70 kt westerly jet in the 500-300 mb layer noses across the stronger destabilization, vertical shear is becoming increasingly conducive to supercells. Although timing of thunderstorm initiation remains uncertain, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible as early as 22-00z, particularly within a corridor east-southeast of St. Joseph MO through the Missouri/Iowa border vicinity. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 40219546 41349399 41859248 41099091 40429178 38959464 39279575 40219546 Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0623 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 15 20:29:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the Great Basin through the forecast period, and will be greatest over the weekend across western to central NV. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual transition to a highly amplified upper-level regime through the upcoming weekend with troughing along the West Coast and ridging over the south-central CONUS. Disturbances propagating through the West Coast trough will bring breezy conditions to the Great Basin where precipitation chances will be minimal through next week. Hot/dry conditions are expected to persist across central to western TX where fire activity has increased amid steadily-drying fuels. ...D3/Sat to D5/Mon - Great Basin... Confidence in critical fire weather conditions continues to increase for D3/Saturday across the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for 20+ mph winds in the lee of the Sierra Nevada as a mid-level perturbation propagates through the West Coast trough. Fuel conditions are favorable for fire spread after multiple days of single-digit RH and minimal rainfall. Downslope warming/drying should maintain widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens coincident with 15-25 mph winds. 70% risk probabilities have been introduced within the broader risk area where confidence the potential for sustained 20+ mph winds and gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appears greatest. After D3/Saturday, mid-level flow will abate in the wake of the upper disturbance, but lingering 30-40 knot flow should maintain breezy downslope conditions with the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least D4/Sunday and D5/Monday. ...Texas... Long-range guidance continues to show strong consensus on persistent afternoon high temperatures well above 100-105 F through the forecast period across central to western TX. This places temperatures well above the 90th percentile for mid-August with some locations approaching record daytime highs. The anomalous heat is driving rapid curing/drying of grasses and shrubs across the region, which has resulted in increased fire activity in recent days. Fuels will become increasingly available as the heat lingers well into next week; however, the building upper ridge will modulate surface pressure gradients and limit the potential for widespread windy conditions. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show very limited potential for sustained winds above 20 mph for central/western TX, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1907 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1907 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151814Z - 152015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A developing cluster of thunderstorms, with strongest storms gradually consolidating on its southern flank, may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and a few strong surface gusts across the Interstate 80 corridor of western Iowa and adjacent eastern Nebraska through 4-5 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has undergone a recent increase near the Norfolk vicinity of northeastern Nebraska. This is occurring in the presence of weak low-level cold advection, to the west of a surface trough axis shifting southeastward through the central Great Plains and mid to lower Missouri Valley region. However, the boundary-layer remains relatively moist, and appears supportive of CAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg, beneath the leading edge of a -10 to -12C 500 mb cold pool, associated with a notable mid-level perturbation pivoting southeastward and eastward across southern portions of the mid Missouri Valley. Generally within the exit region of a 40-70+ kt westerly jet streak in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear appears sufficient for supercell structures with potential to produce severe hail. With continuing insolation in advance of activity, it is possible that vigorous thunderstorm development will be maintained and perhaps increase further as the mid-level forcing spreads into the Interstate 80 corridor of western Iowa through 21-22Z. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41959723 42419687 42259409 41119401 40999577 41179679 41389756 41959723 Read more