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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OK TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Mid MS Valley this afternoon/evening... The remnants of overnight convection, and an associated/lead shortwave trough, are moving across southern MO/IL. Though these storms will likely weaken through midday, a diffuse outflow/differential heating zone may help focus additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Southern MO to southern IL will be along the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow, where a mix of multicell clusters and possibly a supercell or two capable of producing damaging winds (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible later this afternoon/evening. The primary midlevel shortwave trough will progress eastward from NE/SD toward the upper MS Valley by tonight, in conjunction with a surface cold front. Weak, ongoing convection across north central and northeast NE reflects the zone of ascent spreading east-southeastward through the afternoon, toward the destabilizing warm sector in the wake of overnight convection across northern MO/southern IA. Though timing is still a bit uncertain, thunderstorm development appears probable late this afternoon or this evening across eastern NE and especially near the MO/IA border. Relatively long/straight hodographs, midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will support supercells capable of producing large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts (60-75 mph). Some upscale growth into a cluster may also occur as the storms spread east-southeastward toward IL tonight. ...OK this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is ongoing across central OK along a weak pre-frontal trough. Mid-upper flow will be weak this far southwest, but deep mixing with surface heating will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg or greater with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along this trough by mid-late afternoon, when isolated damaging downburst winds (60-75 mph) will be possible. ...New England this afternoon... To the west of a closed low over Nova Scotia, an embedded shortwave trough is rotating southward over New England with ongoing convection in southwest ME and NH. Surface heating/destabilization on the western/southern fringes of the ongoing storms will likely contribute to additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates, as well as cool midlevel temperatures (-14 to -15 C at 500 mb), will support the potential for isolated wind damage with 45-60 mph gusts and isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter with multicell clusters. See MD #1557 for additional information. ...Northern Rockies this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will eject east-northeastward over ID/southwest MT/extreme northwest WY through this evening. Steep lapse rates and modest PW (near or less than 0.75 inches) will support high-based thunderstorm development this afternoon in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be the main concern. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OK TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Mid MS Valley this afternoon/evening... The remnants of overnight convection, and an associated/lead shortwave trough, are moving across southern MO/IL. Though these storms will likely weaken through midday, a diffuse outflow/differential heating zone may help focus additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Southern MO to southern IL will be along the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow, where a mix of multicell clusters and possibly a supercell or two capable of producing damaging winds (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible later this afternoon/evening. The primary midlevel shortwave trough will progress eastward from NE/SD toward the upper MS Valley by tonight, in conjunction with a surface cold front. Weak, ongoing convection across north central and northeast NE reflects the zone of ascent spreading east-southeastward through the afternoon, toward the destabilizing warm sector in the wake of overnight convection across northern MO/southern IA. Though timing is still a bit uncertain, thunderstorm development appears probable late this afternoon or this evening across eastern NE and especially near the MO/IA border. Relatively long/straight hodographs, midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will support supercells capable of producing large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts (60-75 mph). Some upscale growth into a cluster may also occur as the storms spread east-southeastward toward IL tonight. ...OK this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is ongoing across central OK along a weak pre-frontal trough. Mid-upper flow will be weak this far southwest, but deep mixing with surface heating will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg or greater with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along this trough by mid-late afternoon, when isolated damaging downburst winds (60-75 mph) will be possible. ...New England this afternoon... To the west of a closed low over Nova Scotia, an embedded shortwave trough is rotating southward over New England with ongoing convection in southwest ME and NH. Surface heating/destabilization on the western/southern fringes of the ongoing storms will likely contribute to additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates, as well as cool midlevel temperatures (-14 to -15 C at 500 mb), will support the potential for isolated wind damage with 45-60 mph gusts and isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter with multicell clusters. See MD #1557 for additional information. ...Northern Rockies this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will eject east-northeastward over ID/southwest MT/extreme northwest WY through this evening. Steep lapse rates and modest PW (near or less than 0.75 inches) will support high-based thunderstorm development this afternoon in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be the main concern. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OK TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Mid MS Valley this afternoon/evening... The remnants of overnight convection, and an associated/lead shortwave trough, are moving across southern MO/IL. Though these storms will likely weaken through midday, a diffuse outflow/differential heating zone may help focus additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Southern MO to southern IL will be along the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow, where a mix of multicell clusters and possibly a supercell or two capable of producing damaging winds (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible later this afternoon/evening. The primary midlevel shortwave trough will progress eastward from NE/SD toward the upper MS Valley by tonight, in conjunction with a surface cold front. Weak, ongoing convection across north central and northeast NE reflects the zone of ascent spreading east-southeastward through the afternoon, toward the destabilizing warm sector in the wake of overnight convection across northern MO/southern IA. Though timing is still a bit uncertain, thunderstorm development appears probable late this afternoon or this evening across eastern NE and especially near the MO/IA border. Relatively long/straight hodographs, midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will support supercells capable of producing large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts (60-75 mph). Some upscale growth into a cluster may also occur as the storms spread east-southeastward toward IL tonight. ...OK this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is ongoing across central OK along a weak pre-frontal trough. Mid-upper flow will be weak this far southwest, but deep mixing with surface heating will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg or greater with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along this trough by mid-late afternoon, when isolated damaging downburst winds (60-75 mph) will be possible. ...New England this afternoon... To the west of a closed low over Nova Scotia, an embedded shortwave trough is rotating southward over New England with ongoing convection in southwest ME and NH. Surface heating/destabilization on the western/southern fringes of the ongoing storms will likely contribute to additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates, as well as cool midlevel temperatures (-14 to -15 C at 500 mb), will support the potential for isolated wind damage with 45-60 mph gusts and isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter with multicell clusters. See MD #1557 for additional information. ...Northern Rockies this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will eject east-northeastward over ID/southwest MT/extreme northwest WY through this evening. Steep lapse rates and modest PW (near or less than 0.75 inches) will support high-based thunderstorm development this afternoon in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be the main concern. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OK TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Mid MS Valley this afternoon/evening... The remnants of overnight convection, and an associated/lead shortwave trough, are moving across southern MO/IL. Though these storms will likely weaken through midday, a diffuse outflow/differential heating zone may help focus additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Southern MO to southern IL will be along the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow, where a mix of multicell clusters and possibly a supercell or two capable of producing damaging winds (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible later this afternoon/evening. The primary midlevel shortwave trough will progress eastward from NE/SD toward the upper MS Valley by tonight, in conjunction with a surface cold front. Weak, ongoing convection across north central and northeast NE reflects the zone of ascent spreading east-southeastward through the afternoon, toward the destabilizing warm sector in the wake of overnight convection across northern MO/southern IA. Though timing is still a bit uncertain, thunderstorm development appears probable late this afternoon or this evening across eastern NE and especially near the MO/IA border. Relatively long/straight hodographs, midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will support supercells capable of producing large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts (60-75 mph). Some upscale growth into a cluster may also occur as the storms spread east-southeastward toward IL tonight. ...OK this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is ongoing across central OK along a weak pre-frontal trough. Mid-upper flow will be weak this far southwest, but deep mixing with surface heating will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg or greater with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along this trough by mid-late afternoon, when isolated damaging downburst winds (60-75 mph) will be possible. ...New England this afternoon... To the west of a closed low over Nova Scotia, an embedded shortwave trough is rotating southward over New England with ongoing convection in southwest ME and NH. Surface heating/destabilization on the western/southern fringes of the ongoing storms will likely contribute to additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates, as well as cool midlevel temperatures (-14 to -15 C at 500 mb), will support the potential for isolated wind damage with 45-60 mph gusts and isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter with multicell clusters. See MD #1557 for additional information. ...Northern Rockies this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will eject east-northeastward over ID/southwest MT/extreme northwest WY through this evening. Steep lapse rates and modest PW (near or less than 0.75 inches) will support high-based thunderstorm development this afternoon in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be the main concern. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OK TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest through tonight. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms. ...Mid MS Valley this afternoon/evening... The remnants of overnight convection, and an associated/lead shortwave trough, are moving across southern MO/IL. Though these storms will likely weaken through midday, a diffuse outflow/differential heating zone may help focus additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Southern MO to southern IL will be along the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel flow, where a mix of multicell clusters and possibly a supercell or two capable of producing damaging winds (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible later this afternoon/evening. The primary midlevel shortwave trough will progress eastward from NE/SD toward the upper MS Valley by tonight, in conjunction with a surface cold front. Weak, ongoing convection across north central and northeast NE reflects the zone of ascent spreading east-southeastward through the afternoon, toward the destabilizing warm sector in the wake of overnight convection across northern MO/southern IA. Though timing is still a bit uncertain, thunderstorm development appears probable late this afternoon or this evening across eastern NE and especially near the MO/IA border. Relatively long/straight hodographs, midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will support supercells capable of producing large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts (60-75 mph). Some upscale growth into a cluster may also occur as the storms spread east-southeastward toward IL tonight. ...OK this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is ongoing across central OK along a weak pre-frontal trough. Mid-upper flow will be weak this far southwest, but deep mixing with surface heating will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg or greater with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along this trough by mid-late afternoon, when isolated damaging downburst winds (60-75 mph) will be possible. ...New England this afternoon... To the west of a closed low over Nova Scotia, an embedded shortwave trough is rotating southward over New England with ongoing convection in southwest ME and NH. Surface heating/destabilization on the western/southern fringes of the ongoing storms will likely contribute to additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates, as well as cool midlevel temperatures (-14 to -15 C at 500 mb), will support the potential for isolated wind damage with 45-60 mph gusts and isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter with multicell clusters. See MD #1557 for additional information. ...Northern Rockies this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will eject east-northeastward over ID/southwest MT/extreme northwest WY through this evening. Steep lapse rates and modest PW (near or less than 0.75 inches) will support high-based thunderstorm development this afternoon in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be the main concern. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability for wetting rainfall compared to convection that occurred over the previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability for wetting rainfall compared to convection that occurred over the previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability for wetting rainfall compared to convection that occurred over the previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability for wetting rainfall compared to convection that occurred over the previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability for wetting rainfall compared to convection that occurred over the previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability for wetting rainfall compared to convection that occurred over the previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability for wetting rainfall compared to convection that occurred over the previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability for wetting rainfall compared to convection that occurred over the previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability for wetting rainfall compared to convection that occurred over the previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability for wetting rainfall compared to convection that occurred over the previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track. The early-morning round of convection has largely ended with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms observed based on lighting data and MRMS QPE. A second round of thunderstorms remains likely this afternoon along and east of the OR Cascades into western ID under the upper low. Morning guidance suggests thunderstorms this afternoon will have a higher probability for wetting rainfall compared to convection that occurred over the previous 12 hours. However, areas that did not receive appreciable overnight rain have likely maintained receptive fuels that should support fire starts from lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation cores. Given this concern, along with the potential for numerous lightning strikes across east-central OR, the risk area has been maintained. See the previous discussion below regarding additional, but low-end, fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 08/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 15 14:00:02 UTC 2024.

Some maple tree leaves were beginning to wilt and turn brown, which normally would not happen for a couple of months yet. At Youghiogheny River Lake, a lot of creeks and rivers were rather dry. Water wasn’t flowing over the waterfalls. WWCP-TV FOX 8 (Johnstown, Pa.), Aug 2, 2024

The Homer City Borough and Central Indiana County Water Authority urged all water users to voluntarily conserve starting July 16. Indiana Gazette (Pa.), Aug 4, 2024