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MD 1562 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 515... FOR ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Areas affected...Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 515... Valid 090427Z - 090630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 515 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues across central and eastern Arkansas. DISCUSSION...TS Beryl circulation has progressed into northeast TX, just southwest of Texarkana, and is gradually weakening as it ejects northeast into the lower MS Valley. Strongest low-level shear is now focused across central AR where 0-3km SRH at LZK is on the order of 650 m2/s2. Even so, low-level shear has gradually decreased ahead of this feature, and nocturnal cooling is notably affecting buoyancy in the lower troposphere. As a result, supercell structures are considerably fewer than earlier this evening, though several embedded longer-lived circulations are noted within a larger cluster of convection currently lifting north across central AR. Tornado threat continues with this activity and a local extension to Tornado Watch 0515 may be needed by 05z. ..Darrow.. 07/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 34569313 34979288 35349229 35629132 35579063 35169019 34539047 34039118 33949216 34109299 34569313 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of central/northern Pennsylvania and western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a large anticyclone -- presently centered over south-central CA, will drift erratically northeastward to the southern Great Basin through day 2. Downstream, large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the central CONUS and mid Mississippi Valley through the period, with very slow net eastward shift. That will occur as the remains of TC Beryl eject northeastward from present position over AR, where it already is interacting with a midlatitude/low-level frontal zone. By the start of the period at 10/12Z, the associated deep-layer low should be over northern IN, with 500-mb trough southwestward across southern IL to the Arklatex region. The surface occluded/cold front should arc from that low across portions of OH to a triple point in PA, then southwestward over the central/southern Appalachians to northern/western GA and the coastal FL Panhandle, bending west-northwestward over the coastal LA region as a stationary front, then a warm front over central/west-central TX and southern NM. An eastern warm front should extend from the PA triple point east-northeastward over eastern PA, southeastern NY and central/eastern New England. The eastern warm front should move northward to central NY, and portions of VT/NH by 00Z. Meanwhile, the cold front should reach central/eastern portions of PA/VA, NC, and western SC, becoming quasistationary to warm over parts of southern GA/AL/MS, then continuing as an increasingly diffuse warm front from southern LA to north-central NM. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, near the warm front, and possibly near a prefrontal surface trough over the outlook area from midday through afternoon and shift eastward to northeastward. Activity near the warm front will encounter a favorable parameter space for supercells and a tornado risk, along with short lines or clusters of thunderstorms with damaging to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should contribute to enlarged low-level shear/hodographs and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 45-55-kt range). Forecast soundings also suggest that a corridor of diurnal heating in the warm sector will combine with rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) to offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates, for low LCL and peak/ preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Given the lack of CINH and abundance of moisture, confidence in convective coverage and supercell potential has increased enough to raise unconditional severe probabilities a notch over the region. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Strongly difluent flow aloft will exist over this region east and southeast of the mid/upper high, while a series of minor shortwave perturbations and vorticity maxima move over the region in northwesterly to northerly flow aloft. Moisture return into this region over the next couple days, near the western limb of the diffuse warm front, should support increasing thunderstorm potential, with preferential initiation over higher terrain and convective/differential-heating boundaries. Low/middle-level flow and shear will be weak, leading to multicellular storm mode. Enough offset of strong heating/mixing by moist advection should persist through much of the afternoon to sustain favorably deep/robust, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms atop high DCAPE over the "marginal" area. As a result, an unconditional threat for isolated severe downbursts exists, and a few small clusters may aggregate outflow for a couple hours to boost convective wind potential locally. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the near-surface layer stabilizes. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of central/northern Pennsylvania and western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a large anticyclone -- presently centered over south-central CA, will drift erratically northeastward to the southern Great Basin through day 2. Downstream, large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the central CONUS and mid Mississippi Valley through the period, with very slow net eastward shift. That will occur as the remains of TC Beryl eject northeastward from present position over AR, where it already is interacting with a midlatitude/low-level frontal zone. By the start of the period at 10/12Z, the associated deep-layer low should be over northern IN, with 500-mb trough southwestward across southern IL to the Arklatex region. The surface occluded/cold front should arc from that low across portions of OH to a triple point in PA, then southwestward over the central/southern Appalachians to northern/western GA and the coastal FL Panhandle, bending west-northwestward over the coastal LA region as a stationary front, then a warm front over central/west-central TX and southern NM. An eastern warm front should extend from the PA triple point east-northeastward over eastern PA, southeastern NY and central/eastern New England. The eastern warm front should move northward to central NY, and portions of VT/NH by 00Z. Meanwhile, the cold front should reach central/eastern portions of PA/VA, NC, and western SC, becoming quasistationary to warm over parts of southern GA/AL/MS, then continuing as an increasingly diffuse warm front from southern LA to north-central NM. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, near the warm front, and possibly near a prefrontal surface trough over the outlook area from midday through afternoon and shift eastward to northeastward. Activity near the warm front will encounter a favorable parameter space for supercells and a tornado risk, along with short lines or clusters of thunderstorms with damaging to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should contribute to enlarged low-level shear/hodographs and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 45-55-kt range). Forecast soundings also suggest that a corridor of diurnal heating in the warm sector will combine with rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) to offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates, for low LCL and peak/ preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Given the lack of CINH and abundance of moisture, confidence in convective coverage and supercell potential has increased enough to raise unconditional severe probabilities a notch over the region. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Strongly difluent flow aloft will exist over this region east and southeast of the mid/upper high, while a series of minor shortwave perturbations and vorticity maxima move over the region in northwesterly to northerly flow aloft. Moisture return into this region over the next couple days, near the western limb of the diffuse warm front, should support increasing thunderstorm potential, with preferential initiation over higher terrain and convective/differential-heating boundaries. Low/middle-level flow and shear will be weak, leading to multicellular storm mode. Enough offset of strong heating/mixing by moist advection should persist through much of the afternoon to sustain favorably deep/robust, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms atop high DCAPE over the "marginal" area. As a result, an unconditional threat for isolated severe downbursts exists, and a few small clusters may aggregate outflow for a couple hours to boost convective wind potential locally. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the near-surface layer stabilizes. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of central/northern Pennsylvania and western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a large anticyclone -- presently centered over south-central CA, will drift erratically northeastward to the southern Great Basin through day 2. Downstream, large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the central CONUS and mid Mississippi Valley through the period, with very slow net eastward shift. That will occur as the remains of TC Beryl eject northeastward from present position over AR, where it already is interacting with a midlatitude/low-level frontal zone. By the start of the period at 10/12Z, the associated deep-layer low should be over northern IN, with 500-mb trough southwestward across southern IL to the Arklatex region. The surface occluded/cold front should arc from that low across portions of OH to a triple point in PA, then southwestward over the central/southern Appalachians to northern/western GA and the coastal FL Panhandle, bending west-northwestward over the coastal LA region as a stationary front, then a warm front over central/west-central TX and southern NM. An eastern warm front should extend from the PA triple point east-northeastward over eastern PA, southeastern NY and central/eastern New England. The eastern warm front should move northward to central NY, and portions of VT/NH by 00Z. Meanwhile, the cold front should reach central/eastern portions of PA/VA, NC, and western SC, becoming quasistationary to warm over parts of southern GA/AL/MS, then continuing as an increasingly diffuse warm front from southern LA to north-central NM. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, near the warm front, and possibly near a prefrontal surface trough over the outlook area from midday through afternoon and shift eastward to northeastward. Activity near the warm front will encounter a favorable parameter space for supercells and a tornado risk, along with short lines or clusters of thunderstorms with damaging to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should contribute to enlarged low-level shear/hodographs and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 45-55-kt range). Forecast soundings also suggest that a corridor of diurnal heating in the warm sector will combine with rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) to offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates, for low LCL and peak/ preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Given the lack of CINH and abundance of moisture, confidence in convective coverage and supercell potential has increased enough to raise unconditional severe probabilities a notch over the region. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Strongly difluent flow aloft will exist over this region east and southeast of the mid/upper high, while a series of minor shortwave perturbations and vorticity maxima move over the region in northwesterly to northerly flow aloft. Moisture return into this region over the next couple days, near the western limb of the diffuse warm front, should support increasing thunderstorm potential, with preferential initiation over higher terrain and convective/differential-heating boundaries. Low/middle-level flow and shear will be weak, leading to multicellular storm mode. Enough offset of strong heating/mixing by moist advection should persist through much of the afternoon to sustain favorably deep/robust, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms atop high DCAPE over the "marginal" area. As a result, an unconditional threat for isolated severe downbursts exists, and a few small clusters may aggregate outflow for a couple hours to boost convective wind potential locally. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the near-surface layer stabilizes. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of central/northern Pennsylvania and western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a large anticyclone -- presently centered over south-central CA, will drift erratically northeastward to the southern Great Basin through day 2. Downstream, large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the central CONUS and mid Mississippi Valley through the period, with very slow net eastward shift. That will occur as the remains of TC Beryl eject northeastward from present position over AR, where it already is interacting with a midlatitude/low-level frontal zone. By the start of the period at 10/12Z, the associated deep-layer low should be over northern IN, with 500-mb trough southwestward across southern IL to the Arklatex region. The surface occluded/cold front should arc from that low across portions of OH to a triple point in PA, then southwestward over the central/southern Appalachians to northern/western GA and the coastal FL Panhandle, bending west-northwestward over the coastal LA region as a stationary front, then a warm front over central/west-central TX and southern NM. An eastern warm front should extend from the PA triple point east-northeastward over eastern PA, southeastern NY and central/eastern New England. The eastern warm front should move northward to central NY, and portions of VT/NH by 00Z. Meanwhile, the cold front should reach central/eastern portions of PA/VA, NC, and western SC, becoming quasistationary to warm over parts of southern GA/AL/MS, then continuing as an increasingly diffuse warm front from southern LA to north-central NM. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, near the warm front, and possibly near a prefrontal surface trough over the outlook area from midday through afternoon and shift eastward to northeastward. Activity near the warm front will encounter a favorable parameter space for supercells and a tornado risk, along with short lines or clusters of thunderstorms with damaging to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should contribute to enlarged low-level shear/hodographs and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 45-55-kt range). Forecast soundings also suggest that a corridor of diurnal heating in the warm sector will combine with rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) to offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates, for low LCL and peak/ preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Given the lack of CINH and abundance of moisture, confidence in convective coverage and supercell potential has increased enough to raise unconditional severe probabilities a notch over the region. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Strongly difluent flow aloft will exist over this region east and southeast of the mid/upper high, while a series of minor shortwave perturbations and vorticity maxima move over the region in northwesterly to northerly flow aloft. Moisture return into this region over the next couple days, near the western limb of the diffuse warm front, should support increasing thunderstorm potential, with preferential initiation over higher terrain and convective/differential-heating boundaries. Low/middle-level flow and shear will be weak, leading to multicellular storm mode. Enough offset of strong heating/mixing by moist advection should persist through much of the afternoon to sustain favorably deep/robust, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms atop high DCAPE over the "marginal" area. As a result, an unconditional threat for isolated severe downbursts exists, and a few small clusters may aggregate outflow for a couple hours to boost convective wind potential locally. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the near-surface layer stabilizes. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of central/northern Pennsylvania and western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a large anticyclone -- presently centered over south-central CA, will drift erratically northeastward to the southern Great Basin through day 2. Downstream, large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the central CONUS and mid Mississippi Valley through the period, with very slow net eastward shift. That will occur as the remains of TC Beryl eject northeastward from present position over AR, where it already is interacting with a midlatitude/low-level frontal zone. By the start of the period at 10/12Z, the associated deep-layer low should be over northern IN, with 500-mb trough southwestward across southern IL to the Arklatex region. The surface occluded/cold front should arc from that low across portions of OH to a triple point in PA, then southwestward over the central/southern Appalachians to northern/western GA and the coastal FL Panhandle, bending west-northwestward over the coastal LA region as a stationary front, then a warm front over central/west-central TX and southern NM. An eastern warm front should extend from the PA triple point east-northeastward over eastern PA, southeastern NY and central/eastern New England. The eastern warm front should move northward to central NY, and portions of VT/NH by 00Z. Meanwhile, the cold front should reach central/eastern portions of PA/VA, NC, and western SC, becoming quasistationary to warm over parts of southern GA/AL/MS, then continuing as an increasingly diffuse warm front from southern LA to north-central NM. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, near the warm front, and possibly near a prefrontal surface trough over the outlook area from midday through afternoon and shift eastward to northeastward. Activity near the warm front will encounter a favorable parameter space for supercells and a tornado risk, along with short lines or clusters of thunderstorms with damaging to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should contribute to enlarged low-level shear/hodographs and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 45-55-kt range). Forecast soundings also suggest that a corridor of diurnal heating in the warm sector will combine with rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) to offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates, for low LCL and peak/ preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Given the lack of CINH and abundance of moisture, confidence in convective coverage and supercell potential has increased enough to raise unconditional severe probabilities a notch over the region. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Strongly difluent flow aloft will exist over this region east and southeast of the mid/upper high, while a series of minor shortwave perturbations and vorticity maxima move over the region in northwesterly to northerly flow aloft. Moisture return into this region over the next couple days, near the western limb of the diffuse warm front, should support increasing thunderstorm potential, with preferential initiation over higher terrain and convective/differential-heating boundaries. Low/middle-level flow and shear will be weak, leading to multicellular storm mode. Enough offset of strong heating/mixing by moist advection should persist through much of the afternoon to sustain favorably deep/robust, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms atop high DCAPE over the "marginal" area. As a result, an unconditional threat for isolated severe downbursts exists, and a few small clusters may aggregate outflow for a couple hours to boost convective wind potential locally. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the near-surface layer stabilizes. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of central/northern Pennsylvania and western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a large anticyclone -- presently centered over south-central CA, will drift erratically northeastward to the southern Great Basin through day 2. Downstream, large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the central CONUS and mid Mississippi Valley through the period, with very slow net eastward shift. That will occur as the remains of TC Beryl eject northeastward from present position over AR, where it already is interacting with a midlatitude/low-level frontal zone. By the start of the period at 10/12Z, the associated deep-layer low should be over northern IN, with 500-mb trough southwestward across southern IL to the Arklatex region. The surface occluded/cold front should arc from that low across portions of OH to a triple point in PA, then southwestward over the central/southern Appalachians to northern/western GA and the coastal FL Panhandle, bending west-northwestward over the coastal LA region as a stationary front, then a warm front over central/west-central TX and southern NM. An eastern warm front should extend from the PA triple point east-northeastward over eastern PA, southeastern NY and central/eastern New England. The eastern warm front should move northward to central NY, and portions of VT/NH by 00Z. Meanwhile, the cold front should reach central/eastern portions of PA/VA, NC, and western SC, becoming quasistationary to warm over parts of southern GA/AL/MS, then continuing as an increasingly diffuse warm front from southern LA to north-central NM. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, near the warm front, and possibly near a prefrontal surface trough over the outlook area from midday through afternoon and shift eastward to northeastward. Activity near the warm front will encounter a favorable parameter space for supercells and a tornado risk, along with short lines or clusters of thunderstorms with damaging to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should contribute to enlarged low-level shear/hodographs and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 45-55-kt range). Forecast soundings also suggest that a corridor of diurnal heating in the warm sector will combine with rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) to offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates, for low LCL and peak/ preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Given the lack of CINH and abundance of moisture, confidence in convective coverage and supercell potential has increased enough to raise unconditional severe probabilities a notch over the region. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Strongly difluent flow aloft will exist over this region east and southeast of the mid/upper high, while a series of minor shortwave perturbations and vorticity maxima move over the region in northwesterly to northerly flow aloft. Moisture return into this region over the next couple days, near the western limb of the diffuse warm front, should support increasing thunderstorm potential, with preferential initiation over higher terrain and convective/differential-heating boundaries. Low/middle-level flow and shear will be weak, leading to multicellular storm mode. Enough offset of strong heating/mixing by moist advection should persist through much of the afternoon to sustain favorably deep/robust, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms atop high DCAPE over the "marginal" area. As a result, an unconditional threat for isolated severe downbursts exists, and a few small clusters may aggregate outflow for a couple hours to boost convective wind potential locally. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the near-surface layer stabilizes. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly over portions of central/northern Pennsylvania and western/central New York. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a large anticyclone -- presently centered over south-central CA, will drift erratically northeastward to the southern Great Basin through day 2. Downstream, large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the central CONUS and mid Mississippi Valley through the period, with very slow net eastward shift. That will occur as the remains of TC Beryl eject northeastward from present position over AR, where it already is interacting with a midlatitude/low-level frontal zone. By the start of the period at 10/12Z, the associated deep-layer low should be over northern IN, with 500-mb trough southwestward across southern IL to the Arklatex region. The surface occluded/cold front should arc from that low across portions of OH to a triple point in PA, then southwestward over the central/southern Appalachians to northern/western GA and the coastal FL Panhandle, bending west-northwestward over the coastal LA region as a stationary front, then a warm front over central/west-central TX and southern NM. An eastern warm front should extend from the PA triple point east-northeastward over eastern PA, southeastern NY and central/eastern New England. The eastern warm front should move northward to central NY, and portions of VT/NH by 00Z. Meanwhile, the cold front should reach central/eastern portions of PA/VA, NC, and western SC, becoming quasistationary to warm over parts of southern GA/AL/MS, then continuing as an increasingly diffuse warm front from southern LA to north-central NM. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front, near the warm front, and possibly near a prefrontal surface trough over the outlook area from midday through afternoon and shift eastward to northeastward. Activity near the warm front will encounter a favorable parameter space for supercells and a tornado risk, along with short lines or clusters of thunderstorms with damaging to severe gusts. Veering winds with height should contribute to enlarged low-level shear/hodographs and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 45-55-kt range). Forecast soundings also suggest that a corridor of diurnal heating in the warm sector will combine with rich low-level moisture (surface dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F) to offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates, for low LCL and peak/ preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Given the lack of CINH and abundance of moisture, confidence in convective coverage and supercell potential has increased enough to raise unconditional severe probabilities a notch over the region. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Strongly difluent flow aloft will exist over this region east and southeast of the mid/upper high, while a series of minor shortwave perturbations and vorticity maxima move over the region in northwesterly to northerly flow aloft. Moisture return into this region over the next couple days, near the western limb of the diffuse warm front, should support increasing thunderstorm potential, with preferential initiation over higher terrain and convective/differential-heating boundaries. Low/middle-level flow and shear will be weak, leading to multicellular storm mode. Enough offset of strong heating/mixing by moist advection should persist through much of the afternoon to sustain favorably deep/robust, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms atop high DCAPE over the "marginal" area. As a result, an unconditional threat for isolated severe downbursts exists, and a few small clusters may aggregate outflow for a couple hours to boost convective wind potential locally. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the near-surface layer stabilizes. ..Edwards.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, in association with the remnants of Beryl, will be possible today from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward through parts of the lower Ohio Valley. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of New England. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... The remnants of Beryl will move across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the associated surface low, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. In response to surface heating, pockets of moderate instability are expected to develop south of a warm front across parts of Kentucky by afternoon. Model forecasts are in generally good agreement that a broken line of storms will develop and move east-northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley. A 40 to 50 knot low-level speed max is forecast to move into the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. The storms will likely be located along the northeastern edge of this feature. RAP forecast soundings during the early to mid afternoon from Paducah to Louisville generally increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for tornadoes with rotating cells that form in the remnant rainband of Beryl, especially with storms that interact with a warm front near the Ohio River. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. Compared to the previous day, the low-level jet for today is a bit weaker and further to the west relative to where the models are forecasting convective development. This introduces uncertainty concerning the magnitude of today's tornado potential. ...New England... A low-amplitude trough at mid-levels will move eastward across Quebec and New England today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic northeastward into New England. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of New England early this afternoon. Some of this convection will move eastward into the lower elevations by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis from southern Vermont into southern New Hampshire have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear will be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. A few rotating storms with hail potential will also be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, in association with the remnants of Beryl, will be possible today from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward through parts of the lower Ohio Valley. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of New England. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... The remnants of Beryl will move across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the associated surface low, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. In response to surface heating, pockets of moderate instability are expected to develop south of a warm front across parts of Kentucky by afternoon. Model forecasts are in generally good agreement that a broken line of storms will develop and move east-northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley. A 40 to 50 knot low-level speed max is forecast to move into the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. The storms will likely be located along the northeastern edge of this feature. RAP forecast soundings during the early to mid afternoon from Paducah to Louisville generally increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for tornadoes with rotating cells that form in the remnant rainband of Beryl, especially with storms that interact with a warm front near the Ohio River. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. Compared to the previous day, the low-level jet for today is a bit weaker and further to the west relative to where the models are forecasting convective development. This introduces uncertainty concerning the magnitude of today's tornado potential. ...New England... A low-amplitude trough at mid-levels will move eastward across Quebec and New England today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic northeastward into New England. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of New England early this afternoon. Some of this convection will move eastward into the lower elevations by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis from southern Vermont into southern New Hampshire have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear will be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. A few rotating storms with hail potential will also be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, in association with the remnants of Beryl, will be possible today from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward through parts of the lower Ohio Valley. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of New England. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... The remnants of Beryl will move across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the associated surface low, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. In response to surface heating, pockets of moderate instability are expected to develop south of a warm front across parts of Kentucky by afternoon. Model forecasts are in generally good agreement that a broken line of storms will develop and move east-northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley. A 40 to 50 knot low-level speed max is forecast to move into the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. The storms will likely be located along the northeastern edge of this feature. RAP forecast soundings during the early to mid afternoon from Paducah to Louisville generally increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for tornadoes with rotating cells that form in the remnant rainband of Beryl, especially with storms that interact with a warm front near the Ohio River. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. Compared to the previous day, the low-level jet for today is a bit weaker and further to the west relative to where the models are forecasting convective development. This introduces uncertainty concerning the magnitude of today's tornado potential. ...New England... A low-amplitude trough at mid-levels will move eastward across Quebec and New England today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic northeastward into New England. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of New England early this afternoon. Some of this convection will move eastward into the lower elevations by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis from southern Vermont into southern New Hampshire have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear will be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. A few rotating storms with hail potential will also be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, in association with the remnants of Beryl, will be possible today from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward through parts of the lower Ohio Valley. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of New England. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... The remnants of Beryl will move across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the associated surface low, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. In response to surface heating, pockets of moderate instability are expected to develop south of a warm front across parts of Kentucky by afternoon. Model forecasts are in generally good agreement that a broken line of storms will develop and move east-northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley. A 40 to 50 knot low-level speed max is forecast to move into the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. The storms will likely be located along the northeastern edge of this feature. RAP forecast soundings during the early to mid afternoon from Paducah to Louisville generally increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for tornadoes with rotating cells that form in the remnant rainband of Beryl, especially with storms that interact with a warm front near the Ohio River. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. Compared to the previous day, the low-level jet for today is a bit weaker and further to the west relative to where the models are forecasting convective development. This introduces uncertainty concerning the magnitude of today's tornado potential. ...New England... A low-amplitude trough at mid-levels will move eastward across Quebec and New England today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic northeastward into New England. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of New England early this afternoon. Some of this convection will move eastward into the lower elevations by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis from southern Vermont into southern New Hampshire have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear will be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. A few rotating storms with hail potential will also be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, in association with the remnants of Beryl, will be possible today from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward through parts of the lower Ohio Valley. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of New England. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... The remnants of Beryl will move across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the associated surface low, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. In response to surface heating, pockets of moderate instability are expected to develop south of a warm front across parts of Kentucky by afternoon. Model forecasts are in generally good agreement that a broken line of storms will develop and move east-northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley. A 40 to 50 knot low-level speed max is forecast to move into the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. The storms will likely be located along the northeastern edge of this feature. RAP forecast soundings during the early to mid afternoon from Paducah to Louisville generally increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for tornadoes with rotating cells that form in the remnant rainband of Beryl, especially with storms that interact with a warm front near the Ohio River. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. Compared to the previous day, the low-level jet for today is a bit weaker and further to the west relative to where the models are forecasting convective development. This introduces uncertainty concerning the magnitude of today's tornado potential. ...New England... A low-amplitude trough at mid-levels will move eastward across Quebec and New England today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic northeastward into New England. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of New England early this afternoon. Some of this convection will move eastward into the lower elevations by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis from southern Vermont into southern New Hampshire have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear will be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. A few rotating storms with hail potential will also be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, in association with the remnants of Beryl, will be possible today from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward through parts of the lower Ohio Valley. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of New England. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... The remnants of Beryl will move across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the associated surface low, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. In response to surface heating, pockets of moderate instability are expected to develop south of a warm front across parts of Kentucky by afternoon. Model forecasts are in generally good agreement that a broken line of storms will develop and move east-northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley. A 40 to 50 knot low-level speed max is forecast to move into the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. The storms will likely be located along the northeastern edge of this feature. RAP forecast soundings during the early to mid afternoon from Paducah to Louisville generally increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for tornadoes with rotating cells that form in the remnant rainband of Beryl, especially with storms that interact with a warm front near the Ohio River. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. Compared to the previous day, the low-level jet for today is a bit weaker and further to the west relative to where the models are forecasting convective development. This introduces uncertainty concerning the magnitude of today's tornado potential. ...New England... A low-amplitude trough at mid-levels will move eastward across Quebec and New England today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic northeastward into New England. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of New England early this afternoon. Some of this convection will move eastward into the lower elevations by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis from southern Vermont into southern New Hampshire have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear will be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. A few rotating storms with hail potential will also be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, in association with the remnants of Beryl, will be possible today from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward through parts of the lower Ohio Valley. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of New England. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... The remnants of Beryl will move across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys today. Ahead of the associated surface low, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. In response to surface heating, pockets of moderate instability are expected to develop south of a warm front across parts of Kentucky by afternoon. Model forecasts are in generally good agreement that a broken line of storms will develop and move east-northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley. A 40 to 50 knot low-level speed max is forecast to move into the lower Ohio Valley during the afternoon. The storms will likely be located along the northeastern edge of this feature. RAP forecast soundings during the early to mid afternoon from Paducah to Louisville generally increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for tornadoes with rotating cells that form in the remnant rainband of Beryl, especially with storms that interact with a warm front near the Ohio River. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window. Compared to the previous day, the low-level jet for today is a bit weaker and further to the west relative to where the models are forecasting convective development. This introduces uncertainty concerning the magnitude of today's tornado potential. ...New England... A low-amplitude trough at mid-levels will move eastward across Quebec and New England today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic northeastward into New England. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of New England early this afternoon. Some of this convection will move eastward into the lower elevations by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis from southern Vermont into southern New Hampshire have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear will be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat. A few rotating storms with hail potential will also be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/09/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090500
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Beryl, located inland over southwestern Arkansas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059-061-069- 079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-117-119-125-127-133-145-147-149- 090440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEVIER WHITE WOODRUFF YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059-061-069- 079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-117-119-125-127-133-145-147-149- 090440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEVIER WHITE WOODRUFF YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-019-025-029-039-041-043-045-051-053-059-061-069- 079-085-095-097-103-105-109-113-117-119-125-127-133-145-147-149- 090440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEVIER WHITE WOODRUFF YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more