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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NH/VT AND WESTERN MA.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly from northern Pennsylvania and much of central and southern New York into southern New Hampshire/Vermont and western Massachusetts. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday, supported by a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the cyclonic flow aloft. Most prominent of these shortwaves is associated with the remnants of TC Beryl and is forecast to move quickly northeastward from its early period position over the Middle OH Valley and Lower MI through the Lower Great Lakes region and eastern Ontario. An associated surface low is expected to progress northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, moving from central IN/OH into the St. Lawrence Valley while occluding. Cold front attendant to this system will move eastward across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Secondary surface cyclogenesis is possible Wednesday afternoon at the triple point (which will likely be in the southwestern NY/Finger Lakes vicinity), with the resulting low tracking northeastward into northern NY. Farther west, upper ridging centered over southern NV is expected to build throughout the day, covering much of the western CONUS by early Thursday morning. Modest northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features over the High Plains, with associated lee surface troughing. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Upper OH Valley and Northeast... A occluded front will likely extend from the primary surface low near the northern/central IN/OH border east-northeastward to the triple point in the northeast OH/northwest PA vicinity early Wednesday morning, with a warm front continuing eastward from the triple point across southwest/south-central NY into MA. The associated warm sector is expected to be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which are forecast to advect northward as the surface low pushes east and the warm front lifts north. Strong heating is anticipated within this warm sector as well, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. These thermodynamic conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy throughout the warm sector, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front, with some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence possible as well. Deep-layer vertical shear across the warm sector will be moderate (i.e. around 30-40 kt from 0-6 km bulk shear), supporting the potential for organized storm structures and a few supercells. Warm temperatures aloft will likely mitigate the hail threat, but strong heating and resulting steep low-level lapse rates will support damaging gusts. Additionally, some backing of the surface winds (particularly near the warm front), could also result in enough low-level veering with height to result in some tornado potential. Greatest severe coverage is anticipated from southwest NY/northwest PA northeastward across much of central and southern NY into southern NH/VT and western MA. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Afternoon and evening thunderstorms development is possible across the region, beginning over the higher terrain, as the airmass destabilizes amid strong heating and a low-amplitude shortwave trough rounds the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. Buoyancy will be modest, but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will still support the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging wind gusts. A few small clusters could aggregate outflow for a couple hours to locally enhance the convective wind potential. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NH/VT AND WESTERN MA.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly from northern Pennsylvania and much of central and southern New York into southern New Hampshire/Vermont and western Massachusetts. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday, supported by a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the cyclonic flow aloft. Most prominent of these shortwaves is associated with the remnants of TC Beryl and is forecast to move quickly northeastward from its early period position over the Middle OH Valley and Lower MI through the Lower Great Lakes region and eastern Ontario. An associated surface low is expected to progress northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, moving from central IN/OH into the St. Lawrence Valley while occluding. Cold front attendant to this system will move eastward across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Secondary surface cyclogenesis is possible Wednesday afternoon at the triple point (which will likely be in the southwestern NY/Finger Lakes vicinity), with the resulting low tracking northeastward into northern NY. Farther west, upper ridging centered over southern NV is expected to build throughout the day, covering much of the western CONUS by early Thursday morning. Modest northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features over the High Plains, with associated lee surface troughing. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Upper OH Valley and Northeast... A occluded front will likely extend from the primary surface low near the northern/central IN/OH border east-northeastward to the triple point in the northeast OH/northwest PA vicinity early Wednesday morning, with a warm front continuing eastward from the triple point across southwest/south-central NY into MA. The associated warm sector is expected to be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which are forecast to advect northward as the surface low pushes east and the warm front lifts north. Strong heating is anticipated within this warm sector as well, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. These thermodynamic conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy throughout the warm sector, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front, with some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence possible as well. Deep-layer vertical shear across the warm sector will be moderate (i.e. around 30-40 kt from 0-6 km bulk shear), supporting the potential for organized storm structures and a few supercells. Warm temperatures aloft will likely mitigate the hail threat, but strong heating and resulting steep low-level lapse rates will support damaging gusts. Additionally, some backing of the surface winds (particularly near the warm front), could also result in enough low-level veering with height to result in some tornado potential. Greatest severe coverage is anticipated from southwest NY/northwest PA northeastward across much of central and southern NY into southern NH/VT and western MA. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Afternoon and evening thunderstorms development is possible across the region, beginning over the higher terrain, as the airmass destabilizes amid strong heating and a low-amplitude shortwave trough rounds the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. Buoyancy will be modest, but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will still support the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging wind gusts. A few small clusters could aggregate outflow for a couple hours to locally enhance the convective wind potential. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NH/VT AND WESTERN MA.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly from northern Pennsylvania and much of central and southern New York into southern New Hampshire/Vermont and western Massachusetts. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday, supported by a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the cyclonic flow aloft. Most prominent of these shortwaves is associated with the remnants of TC Beryl and is forecast to move quickly northeastward from its early period position over the Middle OH Valley and Lower MI through the Lower Great Lakes region and eastern Ontario. An associated surface low is expected to progress northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, moving from central IN/OH into the St. Lawrence Valley while occluding. Cold front attendant to this system will move eastward across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Secondary surface cyclogenesis is possible Wednesday afternoon at the triple point (which will likely be in the southwestern NY/Finger Lakes vicinity), with the resulting low tracking northeastward into northern NY. Farther west, upper ridging centered over southern NV is expected to build throughout the day, covering much of the western CONUS by early Thursday morning. Modest northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features over the High Plains, with associated lee surface troughing. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Upper OH Valley and Northeast... A occluded front will likely extend from the primary surface low near the northern/central IN/OH border east-northeastward to the triple point in the northeast OH/northwest PA vicinity early Wednesday morning, with a warm front continuing eastward from the triple point across southwest/south-central NY into MA. The associated warm sector is expected to be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which are forecast to advect northward as the surface low pushes east and the warm front lifts north. Strong heating is anticipated within this warm sector as well, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. These thermodynamic conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy throughout the warm sector, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front, with some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence possible as well. Deep-layer vertical shear across the warm sector will be moderate (i.e. around 30-40 kt from 0-6 km bulk shear), supporting the potential for organized storm structures and a few supercells. Warm temperatures aloft will likely mitigate the hail threat, but strong heating and resulting steep low-level lapse rates will support damaging gusts. Additionally, some backing of the surface winds (particularly near the warm front), could also result in enough low-level veering with height to result in some tornado potential. Greatest severe coverage is anticipated from southwest NY/northwest PA northeastward across much of central and southern NY into southern NH/VT and western MA. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Afternoon and evening thunderstorms development is possible across the region, beginning over the higher terrain, as the airmass destabilizes amid strong heating and a low-amplitude shortwave trough rounds the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. Buoyancy will be modest, but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will still support the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging wind gusts. A few small clusters could aggregate outflow for a couple hours to locally enhance the convective wind potential. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NH/VT AND WESTERN MA.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly from northern Pennsylvania and much of central and southern New York into southern New Hampshire/Vermont and western Massachusetts. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday, supported by a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the cyclonic flow aloft. Most prominent of these shortwaves is associated with the remnants of TC Beryl and is forecast to move quickly northeastward from its early period position over the Middle OH Valley and Lower MI through the Lower Great Lakes region and eastern Ontario. An associated surface low is expected to progress northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, moving from central IN/OH into the St. Lawrence Valley while occluding. Cold front attendant to this system will move eastward across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Secondary surface cyclogenesis is possible Wednesday afternoon at the triple point (which will likely be in the southwestern NY/Finger Lakes vicinity), with the resulting low tracking northeastward into northern NY. Farther west, upper ridging centered over southern NV is expected to build throughout the day, covering much of the western CONUS by early Thursday morning. Modest northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features over the High Plains, with associated lee surface troughing. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Upper OH Valley and Northeast... A occluded front will likely extend from the primary surface low near the northern/central IN/OH border east-northeastward to the triple point in the northeast OH/northwest PA vicinity early Wednesday morning, with a warm front continuing eastward from the triple point across southwest/south-central NY into MA. The associated warm sector is expected to be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which are forecast to advect northward as the surface low pushes east and the warm front lifts north. Strong heating is anticipated within this warm sector as well, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. These thermodynamic conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy throughout the warm sector, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front, with some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence possible as well. Deep-layer vertical shear across the warm sector will be moderate (i.e. around 30-40 kt from 0-6 km bulk shear), supporting the potential for organized storm structures and a few supercells. Warm temperatures aloft will likely mitigate the hail threat, but strong heating and resulting steep low-level lapse rates will support damaging gusts. Additionally, some backing of the surface winds (particularly near the warm front), could also result in enough low-level veering with height to result in some tornado potential. Greatest severe coverage is anticipated from southwest NY/northwest PA northeastward across much of central and southern NY into southern NH/VT and western MA. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Afternoon and evening thunderstorms development is possible across the region, beginning over the higher terrain, as the airmass destabilizes amid strong heating and a low-amplitude shortwave trough rounds the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. Buoyancy will be modest, but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will still support the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging wind gusts. A few small clusters could aggregate outflow for a couple hours to locally enhance the convective wind potential. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NH/VT AND WESTERN MA.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly from northern Pennsylvania and much of central and southern New York into southern New Hampshire/Vermont and western Massachusetts. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday, supported by a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the cyclonic flow aloft. Most prominent of these shortwaves is associated with the remnants of TC Beryl and is forecast to move quickly northeastward from its early period position over the Middle OH Valley and Lower MI through the Lower Great Lakes region and eastern Ontario. An associated surface low is expected to progress northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, moving from central IN/OH into the St. Lawrence Valley while occluding. Cold front attendant to this system will move eastward across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Secondary surface cyclogenesis is possible Wednesday afternoon at the triple point (which will likely be in the southwestern NY/Finger Lakes vicinity), with the resulting low tracking northeastward into northern NY. Farther west, upper ridging centered over southern NV is expected to build throughout the day, covering much of the western CONUS by early Thursday morning. Modest northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features over the High Plains, with associated lee surface troughing. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Upper OH Valley and Northeast... A occluded front will likely extend from the primary surface low near the northern/central IN/OH border east-northeastward to the triple point in the northeast OH/northwest PA vicinity early Wednesday morning, with a warm front continuing eastward from the triple point across southwest/south-central NY into MA. The associated warm sector is expected to be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which are forecast to advect northward as the surface low pushes east and the warm front lifts north. Strong heating is anticipated within this warm sector as well, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. These thermodynamic conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy throughout the warm sector, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front, with some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence possible as well. Deep-layer vertical shear across the warm sector will be moderate (i.e. around 30-40 kt from 0-6 km bulk shear), supporting the potential for organized storm structures and a few supercells. Warm temperatures aloft will likely mitigate the hail threat, but strong heating and resulting steep low-level lapse rates will support damaging gusts. Additionally, some backing of the surface winds (particularly near the warm front), could also result in enough low-level veering with height to result in some tornado potential. Greatest severe coverage is anticipated from southwest NY/northwest PA northeastward across much of central and southern NY into southern NH/VT and western MA. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Afternoon and evening thunderstorms development is possible across the region, beginning over the higher terrain, as the airmass destabilizes amid strong heating and a low-amplitude shortwave trough rounds the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. Buoyancy will be modest, but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will still support the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging wind gusts. A few small clusters could aggregate outflow for a couple hours to locally enhance the convective wind potential. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NH/VT AND WESTERN MA.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly from northern Pennsylvania and much of central and southern New York into southern New Hampshire/Vermont and western Massachusetts. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday, supported by a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the cyclonic flow aloft. Most prominent of these shortwaves is associated with the remnants of TC Beryl and is forecast to move quickly northeastward from its early period position over the Middle OH Valley and Lower MI through the Lower Great Lakes region and eastern Ontario. An associated surface low is expected to progress northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, moving from central IN/OH into the St. Lawrence Valley while occluding. Cold front attendant to this system will move eastward across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Secondary surface cyclogenesis is possible Wednesday afternoon at the triple point (which will likely be in the southwestern NY/Finger Lakes vicinity), with the resulting low tracking northeastward into northern NY. Farther west, upper ridging centered over southern NV is expected to build throughout the day, covering much of the western CONUS by early Thursday morning. Modest northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features over the High Plains, with associated lee surface troughing. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Upper OH Valley and Northeast... A occluded front will likely extend from the primary surface low near the northern/central IN/OH border east-northeastward to the triple point in the northeast OH/northwest PA vicinity early Wednesday morning, with a warm front continuing eastward from the triple point across southwest/south-central NY into MA. The associated warm sector is expected to be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which are forecast to advect northward as the surface low pushes east and the warm front lifts north. Strong heating is anticipated within this warm sector as well, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. These thermodynamic conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy throughout the warm sector, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front, with some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence possible as well. Deep-layer vertical shear across the warm sector will be moderate (i.e. around 30-40 kt from 0-6 km bulk shear), supporting the potential for organized storm structures and a few supercells. Warm temperatures aloft will likely mitigate the hail threat, but strong heating and resulting steep low-level lapse rates will support damaging gusts. Additionally, some backing of the surface winds (particularly near the warm front), could also result in enough low-level veering with height to result in some tornado potential. Greatest severe coverage is anticipated from southwest NY/northwest PA northeastward across much of central and southern NY into southern NH/VT and western MA. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Afternoon and evening thunderstorms development is possible across the region, beginning over the higher terrain, as the airmass destabilizes amid strong heating and a low-amplitude shortwave trough rounds the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. Buoyancy will be modest, but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will still support the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging wind gusts. A few small clusters could aggregate outflow for a couple hours to locally enhance the convective wind potential. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NH/VT AND WESTERN MA.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible mainly from northern Pennsylvania and much of central and southern New York into southern New Hampshire/Vermont and western Massachusetts. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to persist across the central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday, supported by a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the cyclonic flow aloft. Most prominent of these shortwaves is associated with the remnants of TC Beryl and is forecast to move quickly northeastward from its early period position over the Middle OH Valley and Lower MI through the Lower Great Lakes region and eastern Ontario. An associated surface low is expected to progress northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, moving from central IN/OH into the St. Lawrence Valley while occluding. Cold front attendant to this system will move eastward across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Secondary surface cyclogenesis is possible Wednesday afternoon at the triple point (which will likely be in the southwestern NY/Finger Lakes vicinity), with the resulting low tracking northeastward into northern NY. Farther west, upper ridging centered over southern NV is expected to build throughout the day, covering much of the western CONUS by early Thursday morning. Modest northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated between these two features over the High Plains, with associated lee surface troughing. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Upper OH Valley and Northeast... A occluded front will likely extend from the primary surface low near the northern/central IN/OH border east-northeastward to the triple point in the northeast OH/northwest PA vicinity early Wednesday morning, with a warm front continuing eastward from the triple point across southwest/south-central NY into MA. The associated warm sector is expected to be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, which are forecast to advect northward as the surface low pushes east and the warm front lifts north. Strong heating is anticipated within this warm sector as well, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. These thermodynamic conditions will support moderate to strong buoyancy throughout the warm sector, with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front, with some pre-frontal development within areas of low-level confluence possible as well. Deep-layer vertical shear across the warm sector will be moderate (i.e. around 30-40 kt from 0-6 km bulk shear), supporting the potential for organized storm structures and a few supercells. Warm temperatures aloft will likely mitigate the hail threat, but strong heating and resulting steep low-level lapse rates will support damaging gusts. Additionally, some backing of the surface winds (particularly near the warm front), could also result in enough low-level veering with height to result in some tornado potential. Greatest severe coverage is anticipated from southwest NY/northwest PA northeastward across much of central and southern NY into southern NH/VT and western MA. ...Portions of NM and west TX... Afternoon and evening thunderstorms development is possible across the region, beginning over the higher terrain, as the airmass destabilizes amid strong heating and a low-amplitude shortwave trough rounds the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. Buoyancy will be modest, but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will still support the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging wind gusts. A few small clusters could aggregate outflow for a couple hours to locally enhance the convective wind potential. The threat should wane quickly during the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. ..Mosier.. 07/09/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091720
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight across the lower Ohio Valley in association with the remnants of Beryl. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley... Beryl has become a post-tropical cyclone with its remnant surface circulation (1004 MB) shifting northeastward across the Mid-South this morning, and it will continue toward the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers today and Wabash Valley vicinity of southern Illinois and central/southern Indiana tonight. Short-term global/mesoscale guidance varies on the strength of 2-3km AGL winds diurnally, but recent WSR-88D VWP data from Memphis substantiates the possibility of somewhat-stronger-than-guidance low-level winds, with a more uniform guidance consensus otherwise that low-level winds/shear will likely regionally strengthen into this evening. Preceding the surface low, a warm front will effectively shift north-northeastward from western/northern Tennessee across Kentucky toward the Ohio River, oriented generally parallel to the river later today, with increasingly prevalent lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints within the nearby warm sector. Cloud breaks and a steady warming of the boundary layer will promote an increase and intensification of storms this afternoon. Enlarged low-level hodographs, especially in proximity to the warm front, and on the east-southeast periphery of the surface wave, will support semi-discrete rotating storms/supercells capable of tornadoes this afternoon through at least early/mid-evening, particularly within a corridor across northwest Tennessee, much of Kentucky, into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Even with a gradual wane in boundary layer buoyancy and low-level parcel accelerations, at least some potential for wind damage and/or tornado risk will continue through the late-night hours northeastward across Ohio toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ...New England... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max will influence the region, with increasing thunderstorm development expected this afternoon along a weak/remnant front, with additional influence by higher terrain and differential heating. A few organized multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two can be expected, with wind gusts of 50-65 mph and severe hail possible this afternoon through around sunset. ...New Mexico... The region will be influenced by a relatively moist air mass over interior areas along with a belt of modestly strong northwesterly flow aloft. Thunderstorm development should semi-focus this afternoon near the Raton Mesa as well as the Gila National Forest vicinity, with storms subsequently generally moving south. Steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture/buoyancy, in the presence of moderately strong/vertically veering wind profiles, may allow for some strong to locally severe storms this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No further forecast updates are necessary, as current thinking remains unchanged. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong upper-level ridging aloft will generally keep winds generally light across the western US today where the most critical fuels are presently located. Very warm and dry conditions are forecast, with afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across much of the region. Sundowner winds will lead to localized Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across Santa Barbra County in southern California, but these conditions remain too localized for highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the Central Rockies Tuesday afternoon. Overall, this threat remains too localized for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more