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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective development -- some of it will likely be severe. Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection reintensifies. Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS. ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140502
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

670
ABPZ20 KNHC 140502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located about 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this
system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portion of the basin during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

MD 1607 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528... FOR CENTRAL MN TO WEST-CENTRAL WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas affected...central MN to west-central WI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528... Valid 140428Z - 140530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528 continues. SUMMARY...Mixed severe wind and hail threats are likely to continue as a cluster over west-central to central Minnesota potentially accelerates east-southeastward along the I-94 corridor. DISCUSSION...The west-central MN cluster has a history of measured wind gusts approaching severe thresholds, along with reported large hail to around 1.5 inches in diameter. Additional storms are forming farther southeast within the modest low-level warm advection regime along the I-94 corridor into east-central MN and west-central WI. Potential merging of the cluster with these leading cells would yield a broader acceleration to the east-southeast, and may result in an increase in strong to severe wind gusts into the greater Twin Cities area during the early morning. ..Grams.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45929472 45499292 45239194 44859110 44569099 44219158 44209241 44409345 44869489 45279551 45559565 45929472 Read more

WW 0529 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0529 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0529 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0529 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more