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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Interior West as a mid-level trough meanders over the West Coast and an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. today. Boundary-layer mixing to the lee of the Sierra will promote windy conditions amid 10-20 percent RH by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained across portions of the Harney Basin in southeast Oregon and adjacent areas, as well as southwest into central Nevada, where the aforementioned dry and windy conditions should persist for several hours atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Interior West as a mid-level trough meanders over the West Coast and an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. today. Boundary-layer mixing to the lee of the Sierra will promote windy conditions amid 10-20 percent RH by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained across portions of the Harney Basin in southeast Oregon and adjacent areas, as well as southwest into central Nevada, where the aforementioned dry and windy conditions should persist for several hours atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Interior West as a mid-level trough meanders over the West Coast and an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. today. Boundary-layer mixing to the lee of the Sierra will promote windy conditions amid 10-20 percent RH by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained across portions of the Harney Basin in southeast Oregon and adjacent areas, as well as southwest into central Nevada, where the aforementioned dry and windy conditions should persist for several hours atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Interior West as a mid-level trough meanders over the West Coast and an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. today. Boundary-layer mixing to the lee of the Sierra will promote windy conditions amid 10-20 percent RH by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained across portions of the Harney Basin in southeast Oregon and adjacent areas, as well as southwest into central Nevada, where the aforementioned dry and windy conditions should persist for several hours atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Interior West as a mid-level trough meanders over the West Coast and an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. today. Boundary-layer mixing to the lee of the Sierra will promote windy conditions amid 10-20 percent RH by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained across portions of the Harney Basin in southeast Oregon and adjacent areas, as well as southwest into central Nevada, where the aforementioned dry and windy conditions should persist for several hours atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Interior West as a mid-level trough meanders over the West Coast and an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. today. Boundary-layer mixing to the lee of the Sierra will promote windy conditions amid 10-20 percent RH by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained across portions of the Harney Basin in southeast Oregon and adjacent areas, as well as southwest into central Nevada, where the aforementioned dry and windy conditions should persist for several hours atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the central and northern High Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the trough at the start of the period in the central Dakotas. Further west, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will destabilize during the day, with pockets of moderate instability likely developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak due to the upper ridge, topographical forcing and low-level convergence is expected to result in isolated convective initiation. A few storms should develop in the afternoon, from central and eastern Montana southward into western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains during the mid to late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mostly owing to speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, with relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. This environment will likely be favorable for high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the central and northern High Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the trough at the start of the period in the central Dakotas. Further west, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will destabilize during the day, with pockets of moderate instability likely developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak due to the upper ridge, topographical forcing and low-level convergence is expected to result in isolated convective initiation. A few storms should develop in the afternoon, from central and eastern Montana southward into western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains during the mid to late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mostly owing to speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, with relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. This environment will likely be favorable for high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the central and northern High Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the trough at the start of the period in the central Dakotas. Further west, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will destabilize during the day, with pockets of moderate instability likely developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak due to the upper ridge, topographical forcing and low-level convergence is expected to result in isolated convective initiation. A few storms should develop in the afternoon, from central and eastern Montana southward into western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains during the mid to late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mostly owing to speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, with relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. This environment will likely be favorable for high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the central and northern High Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the trough at the start of the period in the central Dakotas. Further west, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will destabilize during the day, with pockets of moderate instability likely developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak due to the upper ridge, topographical forcing and low-level convergence is expected to result in isolated convective initiation. A few storms should develop in the afternoon, from central and eastern Montana southward into western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains during the mid to late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mostly owing to speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, with relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. This environment will likely be favorable for high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the central and northern High Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the trough at the start of the period in the central Dakotas. Further west, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will destabilize during the day, with pockets of moderate instability likely developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak due to the upper ridge, topographical forcing and low-level convergence is expected to result in isolated convective initiation. A few storms should develop in the afternoon, from central and eastern Montana southward into western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains during the mid to late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mostly owing to speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, with relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. This environment will likely be favorable for high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the central and northern High Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the trough at the start of the period in the central Dakotas. Further west, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will destabilize during the day, with pockets of moderate instability likely developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak due to the upper ridge, topographical forcing and low-level convergence is expected to result in isolated convective initiation. A few storms should develop in the afternoon, from central and eastern Montana southward into western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains during the mid to late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mostly owing to speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, with relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. This environment will likely be favorable for high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the central and northern High Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Northern Rockies... A shortwave trough in the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the trough at the start of the period in the central Dakotas. Further west, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will destabilize during the day, with pockets of moderate instability likely developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak due to the upper ridge, topographical forcing and low-level convergence is expected to result in isolated convective initiation. A few storms should develop in the afternoon, from central and eastern Montana southward into western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings in the central and northern High Plains during the mid to late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, mostly owing to speed shear in the mid-levels. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, with relatively large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads. This environment will likely be favorable for high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible across several areas of the Continental U.S. this afternoon evening. An organized large hail threat may materialize over eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the eastern seaboard as an upper ridge prevails across the Southwest into the Plains and another mid-level trough remains in place along the West Coast today. Given adequate moisture and instability, scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms (some strong to locally severe) are expected along the periphery of both mid-level troughs and the upper ridge. ...North Carolina into the Northeast... At least scattered thunderstorms will develop amid weak vertical wind shear this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Pulse cellular and occasional multicells are the expected storm mode. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, which may support a few strong, potentially damaging gusts with some of the stronger storms. ...North Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of a cold front by afternoon. Similar to the Northeast, rich low-level moisture will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, fostering wet downburst/strong wind gust potential with pulse single cells and multicells. ...Portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley... 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize across portions of southern AR into LA and far western MS during the afternoon on the backside of the East Coast mid-level trough. Tropospheric unidirectional northwesterly flow may contribute to enough deep-layer speed shear to support multicells capable of producing wet downbursts and subsequent strong/damaging wind gusts. ...Eastern Colorado... Moist upslope flow during peak surface heating will result in thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s F beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile will contribute to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly elongated hodographs. Multicells and occasional supercells are expected, with large hail the main threat, though a couple of severe gusts are also possible. ...Portions of the central and Northern Rockies... Broad 40+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the central into the northern Rockies as an impulse embedded in the West Coast mid-level trough grazes the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a deep boundary layer extending up to 500 mb. Scattered pulse-cellular and multicells should initiate over higher terrain areas during the afternoon and progress eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Given the deep boundary layer and corresponding steep lapse rates, severe gusts are the primary threat, though a couple instances of large hail cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/19/2024 Read more