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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 14 16:51:11 UTC 2024.

WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0532 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0532 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft is in place today across the northern Plains and Midwest, with several small-scale features noted in satellite imagery embedded in the flow. This will result in multiple MCSs from MT into the upper OH valley during this period. ...IN/OH this afternoon... A linear MCS is currently ongoing over portions of northwest IN and northeast IL. Strong heating ahead of the system across much of IN/OH, combined with surface dewpoints near 70F will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE, likely aiding intensification of storms. Given 20-25 knots of mid-level flow and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates, a few strong to severe storms are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1612 for further details. ...Eastern IA/Southern WI/Northern IL/Northern IN... Strong heating is occurring in wake of aforementioned MCS across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where ample low-level moisture remains. A well-defined remnant MCV from the overnight severe MCS over SD is currently over northern IA, and will track into the destabilizing air mass. A consensus of morning CAM solutions suggest that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the MCV and track toward northern IL/IN this evening. Damaging winds and some hail would be the main threats. ...Northeast MT/Dakotas/Western MN... Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough digging southeastward across southern AB. Large scale lift ahead of this system will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by early evening across portions of northeast MT and western ND. Model solutions remain diverse in the details of how this convective scenario unfolds. However, it appears likely that one or more clusters of strong/severe storms will track across ND and into northeast SD/western MN during the night. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from parts of eastern VA northeastward into eastern PA and NJ. Winds through the low/mid troposphere are rather weak and lapse rates are poor. Nevertheless, ample low-level moisture and rather high PWAT values may result in gusty winds near the strongest storms. ...AZ... Clear skies early today combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s will yield a hot and moderately unstable air mass this afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain of western NM/eastern AZ and along the rim later today, with sufficient easterly mid-level flow to aid propagation off the mountains. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany these storms. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft is in place today across the northern Plains and Midwest, with several small-scale features noted in satellite imagery embedded in the flow. This will result in multiple MCSs from MT into the upper OH valley during this period. ...IN/OH this afternoon... A linear MCS is currently ongoing over portions of northwest IN and northeast IL. Strong heating ahead of the system across much of IN/OH, combined with surface dewpoints near 70F will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE, likely aiding intensification of storms. Given 20-25 knots of mid-level flow and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates, a few strong to severe storms are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1612 for further details. ...Eastern IA/Southern WI/Northern IL/Northern IN... Strong heating is occurring in wake of aforementioned MCS across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where ample low-level moisture remains. A well-defined remnant MCV from the overnight severe MCS over SD is currently over northern IA, and will track into the destabilizing air mass. A consensus of morning CAM solutions suggest that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the MCV and track toward northern IL/IN this evening. Damaging winds and some hail would be the main threats. ...Northeast MT/Dakotas/Western MN... Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough digging southeastward across southern AB. Large scale lift ahead of this system will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by early evening across portions of northeast MT and western ND. Model solutions remain diverse in the details of how this convective scenario unfolds. However, it appears likely that one or more clusters of strong/severe storms will track across ND and into northeast SD/western MN during the night. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from parts of eastern VA northeastward into eastern PA and NJ. Winds through the low/mid troposphere are rather weak and lapse rates are poor. Nevertheless, ample low-level moisture and rather high PWAT values may result in gusty winds near the strongest storms. ...AZ... Clear skies early today combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s will yield a hot and moderately unstable air mass this afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain of western NM/eastern AZ and along the rim later today, with sufficient easterly mid-level flow to aid propagation off the mountains. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany these storms. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft is in place today across the northern Plains and Midwest, with several small-scale features noted in satellite imagery embedded in the flow. This will result in multiple MCSs from MT into the upper OH valley during this period. ...IN/OH this afternoon... A linear MCS is currently ongoing over portions of northwest IN and northeast IL. Strong heating ahead of the system across much of IN/OH, combined with surface dewpoints near 70F will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE, likely aiding intensification of storms. Given 20-25 knots of mid-level flow and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates, a few strong to severe storms are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1612 for further details. ...Eastern IA/Southern WI/Northern IL/Northern IN... Strong heating is occurring in wake of aforementioned MCS across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where ample low-level moisture remains. A well-defined remnant MCV from the overnight severe MCS over SD is currently over northern IA, and will track into the destabilizing air mass. A consensus of morning CAM solutions suggest that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the MCV and track toward northern IL/IN this evening. Damaging winds and some hail would be the main threats. ...Northeast MT/Dakotas/Western MN... Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough digging southeastward across southern AB. Large scale lift ahead of this system will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by early evening across portions of northeast MT and western ND. Model solutions remain diverse in the details of how this convective scenario unfolds. However, it appears likely that one or more clusters of strong/severe storms will track across ND and into northeast SD/western MN during the night. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from parts of eastern VA northeastward into eastern PA and NJ. Winds through the low/mid troposphere are rather weak and lapse rates are poor. Nevertheless, ample low-level moisture and rather high PWAT values may result in gusty winds near the strongest storms. ...AZ... Clear skies early today combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s will yield a hot and moderately unstable air mass this afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain of western NM/eastern AZ and along the rim later today, with sufficient easterly mid-level flow to aid propagation off the mountains. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany these storms. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft is in place today across the northern Plains and Midwest, with several small-scale features noted in satellite imagery embedded in the flow. This will result in multiple MCSs from MT into the upper OH valley during this period. ...IN/OH this afternoon... A linear MCS is currently ongoing over portions of northwest IN and northeast IL. Strong heating ahead of the system across much of IN/OH, combined with surface dewpoints near 70F will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE, likely aiding intensification of storms. Given 20-25 knots of mid-level flow and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates, a few strong to severe storms are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1612 for further details. ...Eastern IA/Southern WI/Northern IL/Northern IN... Strong heating is occurring in wake of aforementioned MCS across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where ample low-level moisture remains. A well-defined remnant MCV from the overnight severe MCS over SD is currently over northern IA, and will track into the destabilizing air mass. A consensus of morning CAM solutions suggest that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the MCV and track toward northern IL/IN this evening. Damaging winds and some hail would be the main threats. ...Northeast MT/Dakotas/Western MN... Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough digging southeastward across southern AB. Large scale lift ahead of this system will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by early evening across portions of northeast MT and western ND. Model solutions remain diverse in the details of how this convective scenario unfolds. However, it appears likely that one or more clusters of strong/severe storms will track across ND and into northeast SD/western MN during the night. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from parts of eastern VA northeastward into eastern PA and NJ. Winds through the low/mid troposphere are rather weak and lapse rates are poor. Nevertheless, ample low-level moisture and rather high PWAT values may result in gusty winds near the strongest storms. ...AZ... Clear skies early today combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s will yield a hot and moderately unstable air mass this afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain of western NM/eastern AZ and along the rim later today, with sufficient easterly mid-level flow to aid propagation off the mountains. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany these storms. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/14/2024 Read more