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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front across the northern Plains and across parts of the Great Basin. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy conditions will be, precluding highlights. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front across the northern Plains and across parts of the Great Basin. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy conditions will be, precluding highlights. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front across the northern Plains and across parts of the Great Basin. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy conditions will be, precluding highlights. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front across the northern Plains and across parts of the Great Basin. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy conditions will be, precluding highlights. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front across the northern Plains and across parts of the Great Basin. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy conditions will be, precluding highlights. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front across the northern Plains and across parts of the Great Basin. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy conditions will be, precluding highlights. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front across the northern Plains and across parts of the Great Basin. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy conditions will be, precluding highlights. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front across the northern Plains and across parts of the Great Basin. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy conditions will be, precluding highlights. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Localized dry and breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front across the northern Plains and across parts of the Great Basin. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy conditions will be, precluding highlights. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will build over most of the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the upper ridge axis along the U.S./Canada border tomorrow (Thursday). Surface high pressure will persist across the Interior west and from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with surface lee troughing and a cold front progressing across the central and northern Plains states. While relatively light and variable winds will promote quiescent fire weather conditions across most of the CONUS, at least locally dry/windy conditions may occur behind the cold front across the northern Plains. Short-term model guidance varies considerably on how dry and windy post-frontal conditions will become, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, the best chance for dry/windy conditions to develop would be across the Dakotas by afternoon peak heating. If future guidance trends drier/windier, Elevated highlights may be needed given dry fuels in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2141 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 690... FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2141 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...East Central and Southeastern Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 690... Valid 091751Z - 091915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat to continue shifting northward over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Ongoing supercell activity across south-central and southeastern Florida continues, with reports of a confirmed tornado near Fort Drum. A strong thermal gradient is in place across much of the southern Florida Peninsula, with MLCAPE around 500-2000 J/kg. Though the thermal profile becomes less favorable with northern extent, ongoing established supercells will likely continue to track northward and maintain organization and intensity as they move into highly favorable deep layer shear and southeasterly backed surface flow, progged to increase with the expanding wind field associated with Hurricane Milton. As such, the threat for tornadoes will continue, shifting northward over the next 1-2 hours. ..Thornton/Smith.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27378132 27708136 27968142 28508143 28918118 28838066 28608046 28348040 28018033 27698023 27338017 26988015 26778025 26698046 26758078 26988118 27378132 Read more

MD 2140 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 690... FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2140 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 690... Valid 091713Z - 091845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat to continue over the next few hours. A strong tornado or two is possible. DISCUSSION...A convective band associated with Hurricane Milton continues to track inland across the southwestern Florida peninsula. Ongoing supercells have produced confirmed tornado near Ft. Myers. Further cell development continues on the southern flank of this band tracking northward into a more favorable SRH environment sampled from the the VAD profile at TBW (Tampa, FL). A strong thermal gradient remains in place across the southern Florida Peninsula with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg amid temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s. Expect continued potential for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, to continue through the afternoon. ..Thornton/Smith.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... LAT...LON 26108120 25818129 25938169 26188196 26458221 26778242 27018256 27268267 27518266 27648266 27698254 27698225 27598199 26948139 26108120 Read more

MD 2139 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 690... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2139 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of South Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 690... Valid 091635Z - 091800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...Tornadoes remain possible south of Lake Okeechobee with developing/deepening updrafts. DISCUSSION...Temperatures in South Florida have risen into the upper 80s to near 90 F. Several updrafts have began to develop and deepen south of Lake Okeechobee per local radar ZDR data. Should these updrafts sufficiently deepen, they will be capable of producing tornadoes as the low-level flow is only expected to intensify through the day as Hurricane Milton continues east and its wind field expands. The greatest potential will be with storms closer to the eastern coast as cloud cover has been less abundant. Further, low-level winds are more backed with northward extent which will increase tornado potential there as well. ..Wendt.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL... LAT...LON 26538027 26248035 26008042 25588068 25618087 26398132 26788102 26938057 26878033 26538027 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 9 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized in association
with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple hundred
miles southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. By tonight, increasing upper-level winds and dry air
should end the chances for any further development as the
disturbance drifts toward the northwest or north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

MD 2138 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 690... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2138 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 690... Valid 091550Z - 091745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat north of Lake Okeechobee is increasing as a cluster of discrete supercells move generally northward. A strong tornado or two will be possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A cluster of discrete supercells continue to move north/north-northwest near Lake Okeechobee. Surface temperatures have risen into the low 80s F, with the most heating occurring in east-central Florida. The area where temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 70s F will be where the tornado threat will be maximized this afternoon. The storm just west of Lake Okeechobee (Glades County) is currently producing a tornado per TDS evident on KMLB radar dual-pol data. Given the easterly flow and the expected strengthening of the low-level wind field with time (KMLB VAD data has shown slow improvement in low-level shear), the tornado threat north of Lake Okeechobee will continue to increase this afternoon. The environment will support a strong tornado or two with these storms. ..Wendt.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 26468107 26808148 27498166 27668160 28028124 28178101 28128080 27838055 27328036 26818027 26658039 26468107 Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140 ..MOORE..10/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-086-087- 093-097-099-103-105-111-115-091840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD CHARLOTTE COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA AMZ555-610-630-650-651-GMZ031-032-033-035-042-052-656-657-676-830- 836-853-856-873-876-091840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140 ..MOORE..10/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-086-087- 093-097-099-103-105-111-115-091840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD CHARLOTTE COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA AMZ555-610-630-650-651-GMZ031-032-033-035-042-052-656-657-676-830- 836-853-856-873-876-091840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140 ..MOORE..10/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-086-087- 093-097-099-103-105-111-115-091840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD CHARLOTTE COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA AMZ555-610-630-650-651-GMZ031-032-033-035-042-052-656-657-676-830- 836-853-856-873-876-091840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140 ..MOORE..10/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC011-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-057-061-071-081-085-086-087- 093-097-099-103-105-111-115-091840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWARD CHARLOTTE COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA AMZ555-610-630-650-651-GMZ031-032-033-035-042-052-656-657-676-830- 836-853-856-873-876-091840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE FL EAST COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two remains possible during the late morning Thursday along the east-central to northeast Florida coast. ...FL Peninsula... Latest NHC forecast has Milton approaching the Space Coast at 12Z Thursday. Convective bands, outside of the inner core near the center, will likely be offshore of the FL Peninsula by this time. This appears to be a highly consistent signal across the 12Z HREF and experimental CAM guidance. As such, tornado potential related to Milton will be substantially diminished by mid-morning tomorrow, and may already by negligible by the start of the D2 period. A low-probability brief tornado risk might linger for a few hours into late morning, where low-level SRH remains enlarged to the northeast of the center, along a portion of the east-central to northeast coast. Farther south, increasingly warm/dry mid-levels coupled with veered low-level flow suggest the tornado threat will remain negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE FL EAST COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two remains possible during the late morning Thursday along the east-central to northeast Florida coast. ...FL Peninsula... Latest NHC forecast has Milton approaching the Space Coast at 12Z Thursday. Convective bands, outside of the inner core near the center, will likely be offshore of the FL Peninsula by this time. This appears to be a highly consistent signal across the 12Z HREF and experimental CAM guidance. As such, tornado potential related to Milton will be substantially diminished by mid-morning tomorrow, and may already by negligible by the start of the D2 period. A low-probability brief tornado risk might linger for a few hours into late morning, where low-level SRH remains enlarged to the northeast of the center, along a portion of the east-central to northeast coast. Farther south, increasingly warm/dry mid-levels coupled with veered low-level flow suggest the tornado threat will remain negligible. ..Grams.. 10/09/2024 Read more