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MD 2144 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 690... FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0522 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...Southern and Central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Tornado Watch 690... Valid 092222Z - 100015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat is expected to continue across parts of the southern and central Florida Peninsula over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Hurricane Milton is currently just offshore to the south of Tampa Bay, and will move inland over the next hour. The outer band of Milton is now moving offshore from the east coast of the Florida Peninsula. Instability and strong low-level shear, evident on RAP analysis along the East Coast, will continue to be favorable for tornado development over the next hour up the coast from the vicinity of Jupiter Beach. Further west, an isolated tornado threat is expected to continue as the inner bands of Milton move eastward across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. The greatest remaining tornado threat may develop across central Florida as the inner band ahead of the eyewall moves inland this evening. The tornado threat will decrease from west to east as a dry slot associated with Milton moves gradually eastward across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. ..Broyles.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27358014 28218056 28758131 28908198 28828256 28258318 27728341 27288335 27078296 27178251 27438217 27488188 27408163 27068137 26538120 26378088 26368058 26468025 26838008 27358014 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 9 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated with an area of
low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable, and additional
development is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mahoney

MD 2144 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 690... FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0522 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...Southern and Central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Tornado Watch 690... Valid 092222Z - 100015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat is expected to continue across parts of the southern and central Florida Peninsula over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Hurricane Milton is currently just offshore to the south of Tampa Bay, and will move inland over the next hour. The outer band of Milton is now moving offshore from the east coast of the Florida Peninsula. Instability and strong low-level shear, evident on RAP analysis along the East Coast, will continue to be favorable for tornado development over the next hour up the coast from the vicinity of Jupiter Beach. Further west, an isolated tornado threat is expected to continue as the inner bands of Milton move eastward across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. The greatest remaining tornado threat may develop across central Florida as the inner band ahead of the eyewall moves inland this evening. The tornado threat will decrease from west to east as a dry slot associated with Milton moves gradually eastward across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. ..Broyles.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27358014 28218056 28758131 28908198 28828256 28258318 27728341 27288335 27078296 27178251 27438217 27488188 27408163 27068137 26538120 26378088 26368058 26468025 26838008 27358014 Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PBI TO 55 SSE AGR TO 35 S SRQ TO 75 SW SRQ. ..BROYLES..10/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-053-057-061-069-081-085-093-095-097-101-103-105-111-115- 117-119-127-100040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE MANATEE MARTIN OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-GMZ830-853-873-100040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM Read more

WW 690 TORNADO FL CW 091215Z - 100100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and South Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 815 AM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells in the outer rain bands of Hurricane Milton will pose a threat for several tornadoes today across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. The forecast maximum wind gusts and mean cell motion apply to severe thunderstorms outside the eyewall. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Saint Petersburg FL to 10 miles south southwest of Marathon FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 17040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 WSW APF TO 40 SSW MIA TO 15 SE MIA TO 25 WNW PBI TO 35 SSE AGR TO 30 SSE SRQ TO 50 WSW SRQ. ..BROYLES..10/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-053-057-061-069-081-085-093-095-097-101-103-105-111-115- 117-119-127-100040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE MANATEE MARTIN OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-GMZ031-032-033-035-042-052-830-853-873-100040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 9 22:08:16 UTC 2024.

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW EYW TO 5 NNE APF TO 15 E FMY TO 25 NNE FMY TO 35 NNW FMY TO 35 SW SRQ TO 75 SW SRQ. ..BROYLES..10/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...MLB...KEY... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-021-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-081-085-086-087- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117-119-127-092240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD COLLIER GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE MANATEE MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ031-032-033-035-042-052-656-657- 830-853-873-092240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 2143 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 690... FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...East Central and Southeastern Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 690... Valid 092015Z - 092145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues across east central and southeastern Florida. A strong tornado or two remains possible. DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms continue to produce tornadoes across east central and southeastern Florida. East to southeasterly surface flow has increased with a very favorable curved hodograph observed from the VAD profile at MLB (Melbourne, FL) and effective SRH around 300 m2/s2. MLCAPE continues to be favorable (around 1000-2000 J/kg), though the corridor has narrowed towards the eastern coast of the peninsula. This environment will continue to support a risk of tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, over the next few hours before loss of daytime heating begins. ..Thornton/Smith.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 26258068 26798092 27478112 27988131 28338138 28688117 28748082 28578047 28178017 27667999 27027985 26427987 26147990 25918002 25868024 25838050 25958067 26258068 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire-weather concerns are generally limited through the remainder of the week before increasing into this weekend and early next week. Mid-level ridging over the western US will be in place as stronger westerly flow remains displaced northward. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to redevelop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin later this week and into this weekend as a cold front moves out of southern Canada. Gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas D4/Saturday behind the advancing front. Exactly how dry and how windy the post-frontal air mass is remains unclear, but the increase in winds should support some fire-weather risk within dry fuels. The risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions may extended into parts of the Plains and the eastern Great Basin through the weekend and into early next week. The original cold front will weaken as a second stronger front moves quickly south. Dry and windy conditions behind the front will overlap with very receptive fuels. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin through early next week. The most likely corridor for more widespread fire-weather conditions appears to be across parts of the southern High Plains, but forecast uncertainty of the air mass behind the front is high. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire-weather concerns are generally limited through the remainder of the week before increasing into this weekend and early next week. Mid-level ridging over the western US will be in place as stronger westerly flow remains displaced northward. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to redevelop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin later this week and into this weekend as a cold front moves out of southern Canada. Gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas D4/Saturday behind the advancing front. Exactly how dry and how windy the post-frontal air mass is remains unclear, but the increase in winds should support some fire-weather risk within dry fuels. The risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions may extended into parts of the Plains and the eastern Great Basin through the weekend and into early next week. The original cold front will weaken as a second stronger front moves quickly south. Dry and windy conditions behind the front will overlap with very receptive fuels. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin through early next week. The most likely corridor for more widespread fire-weather conditions appears to be across parts of the southern High Plains, but forecast uncertainty of the air mass behind the front is high. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire-weather concerns are generally limited through the remainder of the week before increasing into this weekend and early next week. Mid-level ridging over the western US will be in place as stronger westerly flow remains displaced northward. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to redevelop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin later this week and into this weekend as a cold front moves out of southern Canada. Gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas D4/Saturday behind the advancing front. Exactly how dry and how windy the post-frontal air mass is remains unclear, but the increase in winds should support some fire-weather risk within dry fuels. The risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions may extended into parts of the Plains and the eastern Great Basin through the weekend and into early next week. The original cold front will weaken as a second stronger front moves quickly south. Dry and windy conditions behind the front will overlap with very receptive fuels. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin through early next week. The most likely corridor for more widespread fire-weather conditions appears to be across parts of the southern High Plains, but forecast uncertainty of the air mass behind the front is high. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire-weather concerns are generally limited through the remainder of the week before increasing into this weekend and early next week. Mid-level ridging over the western US will be in place as stronger westerly flow remains displaced northward. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to redevelop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin later this week and into this weekend as a cold front moves out of southern Canada. Gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas D4/Saturday behind the advancing front. Exactly how dry and how windy the post-frontal air mass is remains unclear, but the increase in winds should support some fire-weather risk within dry fuels. The risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions may extended into parts of the Plains and the eastern Great Basin through the weekend and into early next week. The original cold front will weaken as a second stronger front moves quickly south. Dry and windy conditions behind the front will overlap with very receptive fuels. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin through early next week. The most likely corridor for more widespread fire-weather conditions appears to be across parts of the southern High Plains, but forecast uncertainty of the air mass behind the front is high. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire-weather concerns are generally limited through the remainder of the week before increasing into this weekend and early next week. Mid-level ridging over the western US will be in place as stronger westerly flow remains displaced northward. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to redevelop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin later this week and into this weekend as a cold front moves out of southern Canada. Gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas D4/Saturday behind the advancing front. Exactly how dry and how windy the post-frontal air mass is remains unclear, but the increase in winds should support some fire-weather risk within dry fuels. The risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions may extended into parts of the Plains and the eastern Great Basin through the weekend and into early next week. The original cold front will weaken as a second stronger front moves quickly south. Dry and windy conditions behind the front will overlap with very receptive fuels. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin through early next week. The most likely corridor for more widespread fire-weather conditions appears to be across parts of the southern High Plains, but forecast uncertainty of the air mass behind the front is high. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire-weather concerns are generally limited through the remainder of the week before increasing into this weekend and early next week. Mid-level ridging over the western US will be in place as stronger westerly flow remains displaced northward. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to redevelop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin later this week and into this weekend as a cold front moves out of southern Canada. Gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas D4/Saturday behind the advancing front. Exactly how dry and how windy the post-frontal air mass is remains unclear, but the increase in winds should support some fire-weather risk within dry fuels. The risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions may extended into parts of the Plains and the eastern Great Basin through the weekend and into early next week. The original cold front will weaken as a second stronger front moves quickly south. Dry and windy conditions behind the front will overlap with very receptive fuels. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin through early next week. The most likely corridor for more widespread fire-weather conditions appears to be across parts of the southern High Plains, but forecast uncertainty of the air mass behind the front is high. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire-weather concerns are generally limited through the remainder of the week before increasing into this weekend and early next week. Mid-level ridging over the western US will be in place as stronger westerly flow remains displaced northward. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to redevelop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin later this week and into this weekend as a cold front moves out of southern Canada. Gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas D4/Saturday behind the advancing front. Exactly how dry and how windy the post-frontal air mass is remains unclear, but the increase in winds should support some fire-weather risk within dry fuels. The risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions may extended into parts of the Plains and the eastern Great Basin through the weekend and into early next week. The original cold front will weaken as a second stronger front moves quickly south. Dry and windy conditions behind the front will overlap with very receptive fuels. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin through early next week. The most likely corridor for more widespread fire-weather conditions appears to be across parts of the southern High Plains, but forecast uncertainty of the air mass behind the front is high. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire-weather concerns are generally limited through the remainder of the week before increasing into this weekend and early next week. Mid-level ridging over the western US will be in place as stronger westerly flow remains displaced northward. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to redevelop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin later this week and into this weekend as a cold front moves out of southern Canada. Gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas D4/Saturday behind the advancing front. Exactly how dry and how windy the post-frontal air mass is remains unclear, but the increase in winds should support some fire-weather risk within dry fuels. The risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions may extended into parts of the Plains and the eastern Great Basin through the weekend and into early next week. The original cold front will weaken as a second stronger front moves quickly south. Dry and windy conditions behind the front will overlap with very receptive fuels. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin through early next week. The most likely corridor for more widespread fire-weather conditions appears to be across parts of the southern High Plains, but forecast uncertainty of the air mass behind the front is high. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire-weather concerns are generally limited through the remainder of the week before increasing into this weekend and early next week. Mid-level ridging over the western US will be in place as stronger westerly flow remains displaced northward. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to redevelop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin later this week and into this weekend as a cold front moves out of southern Canada. Gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas D4/Saturday behind the advancing front. Exactly how dry and how windy the post-frontal air mass is remains unclear, but the increase in winds should support some fire-weather risk within dry fuels. The risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions may extended into parts of the Plains and the eastern Great Basin through the weekend and into early next week. The original cold front will weaken as a second stronger front moves quickly south. Dry and windy conditions behind the front will overlap with very receptive fuels. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin through early next week. The most likely corridor for more widespread fire-weather conditions appears to be across parts of the southern High Plains, but forecast uncertainty of the air mass behind the front is high. ..Lyons.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Some apple orchards and farms in central Ohio where the public can pick their own apples were closing earlier than usual after drought reduced apple production or led to early picking. Some of the apples were smaller than usual from having inadequate water. The Columbus Dispatch (Ohio), Oct 9, 2024

MD 2142 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 690... FOR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2142 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...East-Central and Southeastern Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 690... Valid 091849Z - 092015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 690 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, to continue over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Supercells are tracking northward in a highly favorable environment across southeastern Florida, with confirmed tornadoes ongoing. Along the eastern Florida Peninsula, temperatures have warmed into the 80s with dew points in the mid 75 to 80s. This moisture rich environment is further enhanced by favorable wind profiles, with back easterly surface winds and effective SRH around 300-400 m2/s2 analyzed by the VAD profile at MLB (Melbourne, FL) and in surface objective analysis. This volatile environment will support continued potential for strong tornadoes. ..Thornton/Smith.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27398011 26677997 26367993 26097999 25868018 25728053 25658086 25688114 25858122 26278104 26868094 27098107 27358120 27758144 28138144 28638119 28898110 28948092 28758064 28548054 28028029 27698023 27398011 Read more