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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 10 22:29:01 UTC 2024.

Grain yields in southeastern Ohio were significantly affected by drought conditions, especially the soybeans. The quality has been adversely affected. Some soybean pods have broken open and spilled seeds onto the ground. Elsewhere, pods have cracked open, allowing moisture to get inside and cause the seeds to sprout. Cleveland.com (Ohio), Oct 10, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Mid-level ridging over the western and central US is forecast to slowly breakdown heading into the weekend as a series of West Coast troughs and increasingly strong flow aloft develop. Strong high pressure will shift eastward and weaken as troughing develops over the eastern third of the US. A cold front should move through the Rockies and northern Plains early this weekend ahead of a second, stronger, front moving out of southern Canada and across the central US early next week. Dry and breezy conditions, supporting a low-end risk for fire-weather conditions, are possible across the Plains, Midwest and Great Basin through this weekend and into next week. More widespread fire-weather concerns could develop midweek next week. ...Plains and Midwest... As the ridge aloft weakens, stronger mid-level flow will gradually move southward, first across the norther Plains and Upper Midwest, before developing over much of the central US. Dry and breezy conditions are possible behind and ahead of the aforementioned cold front through D3/D4 Sat/Sun, though the exact coverage and duration remains unclear. Still, the lack of recent rainfall and stronger winds suggests some fire-weather risk could evolve. Gusty southerly winds and very warm temperature are also possible over parts of the southern High Plains supporting some risk for locally elevated fire-weather potential given receptive fuels. Fire-weather concerns appear likely to increase early to midweek next week behind the second cold front as a strong area of high pressure develops over the eastern US. Breezy northerly winds are possible through early next week ahead of a strong area of low pressure expected to develop over the southern Plains. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the Plains and central US, given the overlap with very dry fuels and little recent rainfall. However, model guidance varies substantially on the timing and intensity of conditions. ...Great Basin... Breezy winds and low RH are possible over portions of the eastern Great Basin this weekend. Stronger flow aloft associated with western US troughing and the cold frontal passage could support another period of dry and windy conditions through early next week. Forecast certainty of widespread dry and breezy conditions is low, but Elevated highlights could be needed in future outlooks should confidence increase. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Mid-level ridging over the western and central US is forecast to slowly breakdown heading into the weekend as a series of West Coast troughs and increasingly strong flow aloft develop. Strong high pressure will shift eastward and weaken as troughing develops over the eastern third of the US. A cold front should move through the Rockies and northern Plains early this weekend ahead of a second, stronger, front moving out of southern Canada and across the central US early next week. Dry and breezy conditions, supporting a low-end risk for fire-weather conditions, are possible across the Plains, Midwest and Great Basin through this weekend and into next week. More widespread fire-weather concerns could develop midweek next week. ...Plains and Midwest... As the ridge aloft weakens, stronger mid-level flow will gradually move southward, first across the norther Plains and Upper Midwest, before developing over much of the central US. Dry and breezy conditions are possible behind and ahead of the aforementioned cold front through D3/D4 Sat/Sun, though the exact coverage and duration remains unclear. Still, the lack of recent rainfall and stronger winds suggests some fire-weather risk could evolve. Gusty southerly winds and very warm temperature are also possible over parts of the southern High Plains supporting some risk for locally elevated fire-weather potential given receptive fuels. Fire-weather concerns appear likely to increase early to midweek next week behind the second cold front as a strong area of high pressure develops over the eastern US. Breezy northerly winds are possible through early next week ahead of a strong area of low pressure expected to develop over the southern Plains. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the Plains and central US, given the overlap with very dry fuels and little recent rainfall. However, model guidance varies substantially on the timing and intensity of conditions. ...Great Basin... Breezy winds and low RH are possible over portions of the eastern Great Basin this weekend. Stronger flow aloft associated with western US troughing and the cold frontal passage could support another period of dry and windy conditions through early next week. Forecast certainty of widespread dry and breezy conditions is low, but Elevated highlights could be needed in future outlooks should confidence increase. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Mid-level ridging over the western and central US is forecast to slowly breakdown heading into the weekend as a series of West Coast troughs and increasingly strong flow aloft develop. Strong high pressure will shift eastward and weaken as troughing develops over the eastern third of the US. A cold front should move through the Rockies and northern Plains early this weekend ahead of a second, stronger, front moving out of southern Canada and across the central US early next week. Dry and breezy conditions, supporting a low-end risk for fire-weather conditions, are possible across the Plains, Midwest and Great Basin through this weekend and into next week. More widespread fire-weather concerns could develop midweek next week. ...Plains and Midwest... As the ridge aloft weakens, stronger mid-level flow will gradually move southward, first across the norther Plains and Upper Midwest, before developing over much of the central US. Dry and breezy conditions are possible behind and ahead of the aforementioned cold front through D3/D4 Sat/Sun, though the exact coverage and duration remains unclear. Still, the lack of recent rainfall and stronger winds suggests some fire-weather risk could evolve. Gusty southerly winds and very warm temperature are also possible over parts of the southern High Plains supporting some risk for locally elevated fire-weather potential given receptive fuels. Fire-weather concerns appear likely to increase early to midweek next week behind the second cold front as a strong area of high pressure develops over the eastern US. Breezy northerly winds are possible through early next week ahead of a strong area of low pressure expected to develop over the southern Plains. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the Plains and central US, given the overlap with very dry fuels and little recent rainfall. However, model guidance varies substantially on the timing and intensity of conditions. ...Great Basin... Breezy winds and low RH are possible over portions of the eastern Great Basin this weekend. Stronger flow aloft associated with western US troughing and the cold frontal passage could support another period of dry and windy conditions through early next week. Forecast certainty of widespread dry and breezy conditions is low, but Elevated highlights could be needed in future outlooks should confidence increase. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Mid-level ridging over the western and central US is forecast to slowly breakdown heading into the weekend as a series of West Coast troughs and increasingly strong flow aloft develop. Strong high pressure will shift eastward and weaken as troughing develops over the eastern third of the US. A cold front should move through the Rockies and northern Plains early this weekend ahead of a second, stronger, front moving out of southern Canada and across the central US early next week. Dry and breezy conditions, supporting a low-end risk for fire-weather conditions, are possible across the Plains, Midwest and Great Basin through this weekend and into next week. More widespread fire-weather concerns could develop midweek next week. ...Plains and Midwest... As the ridge aloft weakens, stronger mid-level flow will gradually move southward, first across the norther Plains and Upper Midwest, before developing over much of the central US. Dry and breezy conditions are possible behind and ahead of the aforementioned cold front through D3/D4 Sat/Sun, though the exact coverage and duration remains unclear. Still, the lack of recent rainfall and stronger winds suggests some fire-weather risk could evolve. Gusty southerly winds and very warm temperature are also possible over parts of the southern High Plains supporting some risk for locally elevated fire-weather potential given receptive fuels. Fire-weather concerns appear likely to increase early to midweek next week behind the second cold front as a strong area of high pressure develops over the eastern US. Breezy northerly winds are possible through early next week ahead of a strong area of low pressure expected to develop over the southern Plains. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the Plains and central US, given the overlap with very dry fuels and little recent rainfall. However, model guidance varies substantially on the timing and intensity of conditions. ...Great Basin... Breezy winds and low RH are possible over portions of the eastern Great Basin this weekend. Stronger flow aloft associated with western US troughing and the cold frontal passage could support another period of dry and windy conditions through early next week. Forecast certainty of widespread dry and breezy conditions is low, but Elevated highlights could be needed in future outlooks should confidence increase. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Mid-level ridging over the western and central US is forecast to slowly breakdown heading into the weekend as a series of West Coast troughs and increasingly strong flow aloft develop. Strong high pressure will shift eastward and weaken as troughing develops over the eastern third of the US. A cold front should move through the Rockies and northern Plains early this weekend ahead of a second, stronger, front moving out of southern Canada and across the central US early next week. Dry and breezy conditions, supporting a low-end risk for fire-weather conditions, are possible across the Plains, Midwest and Great Basin through this weekend and into next week. More widespread fire-weather concerns could develop midweek next week. ...Plains and Midwest... As the ridge aloft weakens, stronger mid-level flow will gradually move southward, first across the norther Plains and Upper Midwest, before developing over much of the central US. Dry and breezy conditions are possible behind and ahead of the aforementioned cold front through D3/D4 Sat/Sun, though the exact coverage and duration remains unclear. Still, the lack of recent rainfall and stronger winds suggests some fire-weather risk could evolve. Gusty southerly winds and very warm temperature are also possible over parts of the southern High Plains supporting some risk for locally elevated fire-weather potential given receptive fuels. Fire-weather concerns appear likely to increase early to midweek next week behind the second cold front as a strong area of high pressure develops over the eastern US. Breezy northerly winds are possible through early next week ahead of a strong area of low pressure expected to develop over the southern Plains. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the Plains and central US, given the overlap with very dry fuels and little recent rainfall. However, model guidance varies substantially on the timing and intensity of conditions. ...Great Basin... Breezy winds and low RH are possible over portions of the eastern Great Basin this weekend. Stronger flow aloft associated with western US troughing and the cold frontal passage could support another period of dry and windy conditions through early next week. Forecast certainty of widespread dry and breezy conditions is low, but Elevated highlights could be needed in future outlooks should confidence increase. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Mid-level ridging over the western and central US is forecast to slowly breakdown heading into the weekend as a series of West Coast troughs and increasingly strong flow aloft develop. Strong high pressure will shift eastward and weaken as troughing develops over the eastern third of the US. A cold front should move through the Rockies and northern Plains early this weekend ahead of a second, stronger, front moving out of southern Canada and across the central US early next week. Dry and breezy conditions, supporting a low-end risk for fire-weather conditions, are possible across the Plains, Midwest and Great Basin through this weekend and into next week. More widespread fire-weather concerns could develop midweek next week. ...Plains and Midwest... As the ridge aloft weakens, stronger mid-level flow will gradually move southward, first across the norther Plains and Upper Midwest, before developing over much of the central US. Dry and breezy conditions are possible behind and ahead of the aforementioned cold front through D3/D4 Sat/Sun, though the exact coverage and duration remains unclear. Still, the lack of recent rainfall and stronger winds suggests some fire-weather risk could evolve. Gusty southerly winds and very warm temperature are also possible over parts of the southern High Plains supporting some risk for locally elevated fire-weather potential given receptive fuels. Fire-weather concerns appear likely to increase early to midweek next week behind the second cold front as a strong area of high pressure develops over the eastern US. Breezy northerly winds are possible through early next week ahead of a strong area of low pressure expected to develop over the southern Plains. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the Plains and central US, given the overlap with very dry fuels and little recent rainfall. However, model guidance varies substantially on the timing and intensity of conditions. ...Great Basin... Breezy winds and low RH are possible over portions of the eastern Great Basin this weekend. Stronger flow aloft associated with western US troughing and the cold frontal passage could support another period of dry and windy conditions through early next week. Forecast certainty of widespread dry and breezy conditions is low, but Elevated highlights could be needed in future outlooks should confidence increase. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Saturday, but the severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be low. ...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deepen on Saturday across parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes, as a series of low-amplitude shortwaves move through the trough during the day, and a stronger shortwave trough and related jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies by evening. A surface low is forecast to develop along a front in the northern MO/IL vicinity, and then move east-northeastward during the afternoon/evening. Modest low-level moistening and cooling midlevel temperatures will support the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy by afternoon. In the absence of more robust moisture return, potential for storm development across the warm sector is uncertain. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front, within a low-level warm-advection regime. Deep-layer flow will be sufficient for some storm organization, but uncertainties regarding the potential for any surface-based development, as well as the magnitude of buoyancy available for elevated convection, preclude severe probabilities at this time. ...South FL and the Keys... Deeper tropical moisture is forecast to gradually spread northward across the Keys and south FL Peninsula on Saturday. This will likely be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm potential through the day and into the evening. Modest midlevel southwesterly flow may provide sufficient effective shear for some transient storm organization, though weak lapse rates will tend to limit potential for more robust updrafts. ..Dean.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Saturday, but the severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be low. ...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deepen on Saturday across parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes, as a series of low-amplitude shortwaves move through the trough during the day, and a stronger shortwave trough and related jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies by evening. A surface low is forecast to develop along a front in the northern MO/IL vicinity, and then move east-northeastward during the afternoon/evening. Modest low-level moistening and cooling midlevel temperatures will support the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy by afternoon. In the absence of more robust moisture return, potential for storm development across the warm sector is uncertain. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front, within a low-level warm-advection regime. Deep-layer flow will be sufficient for some storm organization, but uncertainties regarding the potential for any surface-based development, as well as the magnitude of buoyancy available for elevated convection, preclude severe probabilities at this time. ...South FL and the Keys... Deeper tropical moisture is forecast to gradually spread northward across the Keys and south FL Peninsula on Saturday. This will likely be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm potential through the day and into the evening. Modest midlevel southwesterly flow may provide sufficient effective shear for some transient storm organization, though weak lapse rates will tend to limit potential for more robust updrafts. ..Dean.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Saturday, but the severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be low. ...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deepen on Saturday across parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes, as a series of low-amplitude shortwaves move through the trough during the day, and a stronger shortwave trough and related jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies by evening. A surface low is forecast to develop along a front in the northern MO/IL vicinity, and then move east-northeastward during the afternoon/evening. Modest low-level moistening and cooling midlevel temperatures will support the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy by afternoon. In the absence of more robust moisture return, potential for storm development across the warm sector is uncertain. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front, within a low-level warm-advection regime. Deep-layer flow will be sufficient for some storm organization, but uncertainties regarding the potential for any surface-based development, as well as the magnitude of buoyancy available for elevated convection, preclude severe probabilities at this time. ...South FL and the Keys... Deeper tropical moisture is forecast to gradually spread northward across the Keys and south FL Peninsula on Saturday. This will likely be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm potential through the day and into the evening. Modest midlevel southwesterly flow may provide sufficient effective shear for some transient storm organization, though weak lapse rates will tend to limit potential for more robust updrafts. ..Dean.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Saturday, but the severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be low. ...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deepen on Saturday across parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes, as a series of low-amplitude shortwaves move through the trough during the day, and a stronger shortwave trough and related jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies by evening. A surface low is forecast to develop along a front in the northern MO/IL vicinity, and then move east-northeastward during the afternoon/evening. Modest low-level moistening and cooling midlevel temperatures will support the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy by afternoon. In the absence of more robust moisture return, potential for storm development across the warm sector is uncertain. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front, within a low-level warm-advection regime. Deep-layer flow will be sufficient for some storm organization, but uncertainties regarding the potential for any surface-based development, as well as the magnitude of buoyancy available for elevated convection, preclude severe probabilities at this time. ...South FL and the Keys... Deeper tropical moisture is forecast to gradually spread northward across the Keys and south FL Peninsula on Saturday. This will likely be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm potential through the day and into the evening. Modest midlevel southwesterly flow may provide sufficient effective shear for some transient storm organization, though weak lapse rates will tend to limit potential for more robust updrafts. ..Dean.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Saturday, but the severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be low. ...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deepen on Saturday across parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes, as a series of low-amplitude shortwaves move through the trough during the day, and a stronger shortwave trough and related jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies by evening. A surface low is forecast to develop along a front in the northern MO/IL vicinity, and then move east-northeastward during the afternoon/evening. Modest low-level moistening and cooling midlevel temperatures will support the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy by afternoon. In the absence of more robust moisture return, potential for storm development across the warm sector is uncertain. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front, within a low-level warm-advection regime. Deep-layer flow will be sufficient for some storm organization, but uncertainties regarding the potential for any surface-based development, as well as the magnitude of buoyancy available for elevated convection, preclude severe probabilities at this time. ...South FL and the Keys... Deeper tropical moisture is forecast to gradually spread northward across the Keys and south FL Peninsula on Saturday. This will likely be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm potential through the day and into the evening. Modest midlevel southwesterly flow may provide sufficient effective shear for some transient storm organization, though weak lapse rates will tend to limit potential for more robust updrafts. ..Dean.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor edits were made to the Convective Outlook thunder chances to line up with recent trends on radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no major changes needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024/ A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor edits were made to the Convective Outlook thunder chances to line up with recent trends on radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no major changes needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024/ A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor edits were made to the Convective Outlook thunder chances to line up with recent trends on radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no major changes needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024/ A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor edits were made to the Convective Outlook thunder chances to line up with recent trends on radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no major changes needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024/ A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor edits were made to the Convective Outlook thunder chances to line up with recent trends on radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no major changes needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024/ A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...19z Update... Confidence has increased, with the latest model guidance, that at least a few hours of 15-20 mph surface winds may develop over parts of the eastern Great Basin. While not overly strong, these winds should overlap with pockets of afternoon minimum RH of 15-20% and receptive fuels with recent fire activity. This suggests at least some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions. Otherwise, the prior outlook remains valid, see the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). Though some surface troughing may develop across the Southern Plains, high pressure will dominate across most of the CONUS, encouraging dry conditions, but with light or variable winds, limiting widespread significant wildfire-spread concerns. The best chance for localized wildfire-spread conditions to develop would be the Great Basin by afternoon peak heating, where RH will be below 15 percent on a widespread basis. Still, doubts of a stronger surface wind field developing, combined with only modestly receptive fuels, suggest that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...19z Update... Confidence has increased, with the latest model guidance, that at least a few hours of 15-20 mph surface winds may develop over parts of the eastern Great Basin. While not overly strong, these winds should overlap with pockets of afternoon minimum RH of 15-20% and receptive fuels with recent fire activity. This suggests at least some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions. Otherwise, the prior outlook remains valid, see the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). Though some surface troughing may develop across the Southern Plains, high pressure will dominate across most of the CONUS, encouraging dry conditions, but with light or variable winds, limiting widespread significant wildfire-spread concerns. The best chance for localized wildfire-spread conditions to develop would be the Great Basin by afternoon peak heating, where RH will be below 15 percent on a widespread basis. Still, doubts of a stronger surface wind field developing, combined with only modestly receptive fuels, suggest that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more