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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 11 23:03:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 11 23:03:02 UTC 2024.

The Lower Platte South Natural Resources District issued a complete fire ban on all Wildlife Management Areas due to severe drought. Effective immediately, all outdoor burning activities, including but not limited to campfires, bonfires, and cooking fires, are prohibited. KLIN (Lincoln, Neb.), Oct 11, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest D3/Sunday, with an associated cold front progressing southward down the Plains. Further west, a closed low will migrate slowly east southeastward over the Great Basin under an upper ridge through D5/Tuesday, as fairly deep troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. By mid week, the pattern will begin to shift as a north Pacific trough moves onshore and ridging replaces the trough over the east. Rain chances will accompany the former feature from the Pacific Northwest, perhaps as far south as northern CA, into the Intermountain West through the end of the week. ...Plains into the Midwest... Breezy post-frontal northerly winds are expected D3/Sunday from OK northward, while west southwesterly winds increase across portions of west TX and the Hill Country. Although localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible for these regions, particularly across TX where pre-frontal warmer/drier conditions will be likely, weaker northerly flow aloft under a subtropical ridge axis should limit higher wind speed potential and the need for 40 percent probabilities. Higher RH in the cooler post-frontal air mass further north should keep most locations from dropping below critical thresholds, although fuels remain highly receptive across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Dry southerly return flow by D6/Wed and D7/Thu across the plains could eventually result in an area of 40 percent Critical probabilities, although confidence in the location(s) of the highest wind speeds overlapping with the lowest RH is not quite high enough yet. ...Great Basin, Southwest, and Intermountain West... Localized elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible D3/Sunday across portions UT, NV, and AZ, as breezy southerly winds develop during the afternoon in conjunction with RH dropping into the teens. Then, as increasing mid to upper-level flow in the base of the trough begins to overspread the region D6/Wed, increasing surface wind speeds will become more widespread preceding rainfall chances. Subtle differences in the timing, magnitude, and position of this trough, however, again leaves confidence too low to warrant an inclusion of 40 percent probabilities at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest D3/Sunday, with an associated cold front progressing southward down the Plains. Further west, a closed low will migrate slowly east southeastward over the Great Basin under an upper ridge through D5/Tuesday, as fairly deep troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. By mid week, the pattern will begin to shift as a north Pacific trough moves onshore and ridging replaces the trough over the east. Rain chances will accompany the former feature from the Pacific Northwest, perhaps as far south as northern CA, into the Intermountain West through the end of the week. ...Plains into the Midwest... Breezy post-frontal northerly winds are expected D3/Sunday from OK northward, while west southwesterly winds increase across portions of west TX and the Hill Country. Although localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible for these regions, particularly across TX where pre-frontal warmer/drier conditions will be likely, weaker northerly flow aloft under a subtropical ridge axis should limit higher wind speed potential and the need for 40 percent probabilities. Higher RH in the cooler post-frontal air mass further north should keep most locations from dropping below critical thresholds, although fuels remain highly receptive across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Dry southerly return flow by D6/Wed and D7/Thu across the plains could eventually result in an area of 40 percent Critical probabilities, although confidence in the location(s) of the highest wind speeds overlapping with the lowest RH is not quite high enough yet. ...Great Basin, Southwest, and Intermountain West... Localized elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible D3/Sunday across portions UT, NV, and AZ, as breezy southerly winds develop during the afternoon in conjunction with RH dropping into the teens. Then, as increasing mid to upper-level flow in the base of the trough begins to overspread the region D6/Wed, increasing surface wind speeds will become more widespread preceding rainfall chances. Subtle differences in the timing, magnitude, and position of this trough, however, again leaves confidence too low to warrant an inclusion of 40 percent probabilities at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest D3/Sunday, with an associated cold front progressing southward down the Plains. Further west, a closed low will migrate slowly east southeastward over the Great Basin under an upper ridge through D5/Tuesday, as fairly deep troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. By mid week, the pattern will begin to shift as a north Pacific trough moves onshore and ridging replaces the trough over the east. Rain chances will accompany the former feature from the Pacific Northwest, perhaps as far south as northern CA, into the Intermountain West through the end of the week. ...Plains into the Midwest... Breezy post-frontal northerly winds are expected D3/Sunday from OK northward, while west southwesterly winds increase across portions of west TX and the Hill Country. Although localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible for these regions, particularly across TX where pre-frontal warmer/drier conditions will be likely, weaker northerly flow aloft under a subtropical ridge axis should limit higher wind speed potential and the need for 40 percent probabilities. Higher RH in the cooler post-frontal air mass further north should keep most locations from dropping below critical thresholds, although fuels remain highly receptive across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Dry southerly return flow by D6/Wed and D7/Thu across the plains could eventually result in an area of 40 percent Critical probabilities, although confidence in the location(s) of the highest wind speeds overlapping with the lowest RH is not quite high enough yet. ...Great Basin, Southwest, and Intermountain West... Localized elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible D3/Sunday across portions UT, NV, and AZ, as breezy southerly winds develop during the afternoon in conjunction with RH dropping into the teens. Then, as increasing mid to upper-level flow in the base of the trough begins to overspread the region D6/Wed, increasing surface wind speeds will become more widespread preceding rainfall chances. Subtle differences in the timing, magnitude, and position of this trough, however, again leaves confidence too low to warrant an inclusion of 40 percent probabilities at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest D3/Sunday, with an associated cold front progressing southward down the Plains. Further west, a closed low will migrate slowly east southeastward over the Great Basin under an upper ridge through D5/Tuesday, as fairly deep troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. By mid week, the pattern will begin to shift as a north Pacific trough moves onshore and ridging replaces the trough over the east. Rain chances will accompany the former feature from the Pacific Northwest, perhaps as far south as northern CA, into the Intermountain West through the end of the week. ...Plains into the Midwest... Breezy post-frontal northerly winds are expected D3/Sunday from OK northward, while west southwesterly winds increase across portions of west TX and the Hill Country. Although localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible for these regions, particularly across TX where pre-frontal warmer/drier conditions will be likely, weaker northerly flow aloft under a subtropical ridge axis should limit higher wind speed potential and the need for 40 percent probabilities. Higher RH in the cooler post-frontal air mass further north should keep most locations from dropping below critical thresholds, although fuels remain highly receptive across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Dry southerly return flow by D6/Wed and D7/Thu across the plains could eventually result in an area of 40 percent Critical probabilities, although confidence in the location(s) of the highest wind speeds overlapping with the lowest RH is not quite high enough yet. ...Great Basin, Southwest, and Intermountain West... Localized elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible D3/Sunday across portions UT, NV, and AZ, as breezy southerly winds develop during the afternoon in conjunction with RH dropping into the teens. Then, as increasing mid to upper-level flow in the base of the trough begins to overspread the region D6/Wed, increasing surface wind speeds will become more widespread preceding rainfall chances. Subtle differences in the timing, magnitude, and position of this trough, however, again leaves confidence too low to warrant an inclusion of 40 percent probabilities at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest D3/Sunday, with an associated cold front progressing southward down the Plains. Further west, a closed low will migrate slowly east southeastward over the Great Basin under an upper ridge through D5/Tuesday, as fairly deep troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. By mid week, the pattern will begin to shift as a north Pacific trough moves onshore and ridging replaces the trough over the east. Rain chances will accompany the former feature from the Pacific Northwest, perhaps as far south as northern CA, into the Intermountain West through the end of the week. ...Plains into the Midwest... Breezy post-frontal northerly winds are expected D3/Sunday from OK northward, while west southwesterly winds increase across portions of west TX and the Hill Country. Although localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible for these regions, particularly across TX where pre-frontal warmer/drier conditions will be likely, weaker northerly flow aloft under a subtropical ridge axis should limit higher wind speed potential and the need for 40 percent probabilities. Higher RH in the cooler post-frontal air mass further north should keep most locations from dropping below critical thresholds, although fuels remain highly receptive across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Dry southerly return flow by D6/Wed and D7/Thu across the plains could eventually result in an area of 40 percent Critical probabilities, although confidence in the location(s) of the highest wind speeds overlapping with the lowest RH is not quite high enough yet. ...Great Basin, Southwest, and Intermountain West... Localized elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible D3/Sunday across portions UT, NV, and AZ, as breezy southerly winds develop during the afternoon in conjunction with RH dropping into the teens. Then, as increasing mid to upper-level flow in the base of the trough begins to overspread the region D6/Wed, increasing surface wind speeds will become more widespread preceding rainfall chances. Subtle differences in the timing, magnitude, and position of this trough, however, again leaves confidence too low to warrant an inclusion of 40 percent probabilities at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest D3/Sunday, with an associated cold front progressing southward down the Plains. Further west, a closed low will migrate slowly east southeastward over the Great Basin under an upper ridge through D5/Tuesday, as fairly deep troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. By mid week, the pattern will begin to shift as a north Pacific trough moves onshore and ridging replaces the trough over the east. Rain chances will accompany the former feature from the Pacific Northwest, perhaps as far south as northern CA, into the Intermountain West through the end of the week. ...Plains into the Midwest... Breezy post-frontal northerly winds are expected D3/Sunday from OK northward, while west southwesterly winds increase across portions of west TX and the Hill Country. Although localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible for these regions, particularly across TX where pre-frontal warmer/drier conditions will be likely, weaker northerly flow aloft under a subtropical ridge axis should limit higher wind speed potential and the need for 40 percent probabilities. Higher RH in the cooler post-frontal air mass further north should keep most locations from dropping below critical thresholds, although fuels remain highly receptive across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Dry southerly return flow by D6/Wed and D7/Thu across the plains could eventually result in an area of 40 percent Critical probabilities, although confidence in the location(s) of the highest wind speeds overlapping with the lowest RH is not quite high enough yet. ...Great Basin, Southwest, and Intermountain West... Localized elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible D3/Sunday across portions UT, NV, and AZ, as breezy southerly winds develop during the afternoon in conjunction with RH dropping into the teens. Then, as increasing mid to upper-level flow in the base of the trough begins to overspread the region D6/Wed, increasing surface wind speeds will become more widespread preceding rainfall chances. Subtle differences in the timing, magnitude, and position of this trough, however, again leaves confidence too low to warrant an inclusion of 40 percent probabilities at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WV...EASTERN KY...NORTHEAST TN...EXTREME WESTERN VA...SOUTHEAST OH...SOUTHWEST PA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky and northeast Tennessee through West Virginia and into southwest Pennsylvania by early Sunday evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. ...Eastern KY/TN into WV/PA... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will continue to amplify over the north-central into eastern CONUS on Sunday, as a strong shortwave trough moves southeastward from the upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast. A surface low is forecast to move eastward along a quasi-stationary front from parts of IN/OH into western PA through the day, though guidance begins to diverge by Sunday evening with the intensity and track of this low. A trailing cold front will move through parts of the OH/TN Valleys and eventually reach the western slopes of the Appalachians. Only modest low-level moistening is expected along/ahead of the front through Sunday afternoon, though relatively strong heating will support a narrow corridor of at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from the OH/TN Valleys into parts of western WV and perhaps southwest PA. Warm-sector thunderstorm development may remain isolated at best through the day, but some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as large-scale ascent gradually strengthens in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Increasing low/midlevel flow (generally 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) will support a threat of strong/damaging gusts with the more robust storms. Steepening midlevel lapse rates could also result in some hail threat, especially if the more aggressive moisture/instability forecasts are realized. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WV...EASTERN KY...NORTHEAST TN...EXTREME WESTERN VA...SOUTHEAST OH...SOUTHWEST PA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky and northeast Tennessee through West Virginia and into southwest Pennsylvania by early Sunday evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. ...Eastern KY/TN into WV/PA... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will continue to amplify over the north-central into eastern CONUS on Sunday, as a strong shortwave trough moves southeastward from the upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast. A surface low is forecast to move eastward along a quasi-stationary front from parts of IN/OH into western PA through the day, though guidance begins to diverge by Sunday evening with the intensity and track of this low. A trailing cold front will move through parts of the OH/TN Valleys and eventually reach the western slopes of the Appalachians. Only modest low-level moistening is expected along/ahead of the front through Sunday afternoon, though relatively strong heating will support a narrow corridor of at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from the OH/TN Valleys into parts of western WV and perhaps southwest PA. Warm-sector thunderstorm development may remain isolated at best through the day, but some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as large-scale ascent gradually strengthens in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Increasing low/midlevel flow (generally 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) will support a threat of strong/damaging gusts with the more robust storms. Steepening midlevel lapse rates could also result in some hail threat, especially if the more aggressive moisture/instability forecasts are realized. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WV...EASTERN KY...NORTHEAST TN...EXTREME WESTERN VA...SOUTHEAST OH...SOUTHWEST PA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky and northeast Tennessee through West Virginia and into southwest Pennsylvania by early Sunday evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. ...Eastern KY/TN into WV/PA... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will continue to amplify over the north-central into eastern CONUS on Sunday, as a strong shortwave trough moves southeastward from the upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast. A surface low is forecast to move eastward along a quasi-stationary front from parts of IN/OH into western PA through the day, though guidance begins to diverge by Sunday evening with the intensity and track of this low. A trailing cold front will move through parts of the OH/TN Valleys and eventually reach the western slopes of the Appalachians. Only modest low-level moistening is expected along/ahead of the front through Sunday afternoon, though relatively strong heating will support a narrow corridor of at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from the OH/TN Valleys into parts of western WV and perhaps southwest PA. Warm-sector thunderstorm development may remain isolated at best through the day, but some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as large-scale ascent gradually strengthens in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Increasing low/midlevel flow (generally 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) will support a threat of strong/damaging gusts with the more robust storms. Steepening midlevel lapse rates could also result in some hail threat, especially if the more aggressive moisture/instability forecasts are realized. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WV...EASTERN KY...NORTHEAST TN...EXTREME WESTERN VA...SOUTHEAST OH...SOUTHWEST PA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky and northeast Tennessee through West Virginia and into southwest Pennsylvania by early Sunday evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. ...Eastern KY/TN into WV/PA... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will continue to amplify over the north-central into eastern CONUS on Sunday, as a strong shortwave trough moves southeastward from the upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast. A surface low is forecast to move eastward along a quasi-stationary front from parts of IN/OH into western PA through the day, though guidance begins to diverge by Sunday evening with the intensity and track of this low. A trailing cold front will move through parts of the OH/TN Valleys and eventually reach the western slopes of the Appalachians. Only modest low-level moistening is expected along/ahead of the front through Sunday afternoon, though relatively strong heating will support a narrow corridor of at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from the OH/TN Valleys into parts of western WV and perhaps southwest PA. Warm-sector thunderstorm development may remain isolated at best through the day, but some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as large-scale ascent gradually strengthens in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Increasing low/midlevel flow (generally 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) will support a threat of strong/damaging gusts with the more robust storms. Steepening midlevel lapse rates could also result in some hail threat, especially if the more aggressive moisture/instability forecasts are realized. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WV...EASTERN KY...NORTHEAST TN...EXTREME WESTERN VA...SOUTHEAST OH...SOUTHWEST PA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky and northeast Tennessee through West Virginia and into southwest Pennsylvania by early Sunday evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. ...Eastern KY/TN into WV/PA... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will continue to amplify over the north-central into eastern CONUS on Sunday, as a strong shortwave trough moves southeastward from the upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast. A surface low is forecast to move eastward along a quasi-stationary front from parts of IN/OH into western PA through the day, though guidance begins to diverge by Sunday evening with the intensity and track of this low. A trailing cold front will move through parts of the OH/TN Valleys and eventually reach the western slopes of the Appalachians. Only modest low-level moistening is expected along/ahead of the front through Sunday afternoon, though relatively strong heating will support a narrow corridor of at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from the OH/TN Valleys into parts of western WV and perhaps southwest PA. Warm-sector thunderstorm development may remain isolated at best through the day, but some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as large-scale ascent gradually strengthens in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Increasing low/midlevel flow (generally 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) will support a threat of strong/damaging gusts with the more robust storms. Steepening midlevel lapse rates could also result in some hail threat, especially if the more aggressive moisture/instability forecasts are realized. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...20z Updates... The only changes were to introduce two general thunderstorm risk areas to portions of northern NY/VT/NH into western ME as well as across the northwestern CA coast. Both areas will see relatively low thunderstorm chances, but consistent signals in high-res guidance over the past several runs suggests the potential is high enough to warrant thunder highlights. ..Moore.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...20z Updates... The only changes were to introduce two general thunderstorm risk areas to portions of northern NY/VT/NH into western ME as well as across the northwestern CA coast. Both areas will see relatively low thunderstorm chances, but consistent signals in high-res guidance over the past several runs suggests the potential is high enough to warrant thunder highlights. ..Moore.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...20z Updates... The only changes were to introduce two general thunderstorm risk areas to portions of northern NY/VT/NH into western ME as well as across the northwestern CA coast. Both areas will see relatively low thunderstorm chances, but consistent signals in high-res guidance over the past several runs suggests the potential is high enough to warrant thunder highlights. ..Moore.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...20z Updates... The only changes were to introduce two general thunderstorm risk areas to portions of northern NY/VT/NH into western ME as well as across the northwestern CA coast. Both areas will see relatively low thunderstorm chances, but consistent signals in high-res guidance over the past several runs suggests the potential is high enough to warrant thunder highlights. ..Moore.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...20z Updates... The only changes were to introduce two general thunderstorm risk areas to portions of northern NY/VT/NH into western ME as well as across the northwestern CA coast. Both areas will see relatively low thunderstorm chances, but consistent signals in high-res guidance over the past several runs suggests the potential is high enough to warrant thunder highlights. ..Moore.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. Read more