Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17Z Update... No changes are needed for today's outlook. Sustained wind speeds are still expected to increase to around 15-20 mph from the south and southwest this afternoon across portions of eastern NV and southwestern UT. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17Z Update... No changes are needed for today's outlook. Sustained wind speeds are still expected to increase to around 15-20 mph from the south and southwest this afternoon across portions of eastern NV and southwestern UT. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated showers and thunderstorms producing occasional lighting may persist for a few more hours across eastern/southern OK and vicinity before diminishing as modest warm advection with a south-southwesterly low-level jet weakens later this morning. A cold front will advance southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are expected to remain quite limited ahead of the front, cool mid-level temperatures and strong ascent with the upper trough may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of northern MI this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity could produce occasional gusty winds given strengthening low/mid-level flow through the day, but the overall severe threat still appears low. The front and upper trough will continue across the Northeast tonight. But, instability is forecast to remain minimal, which should hinder thunderstorm potential. Convection should also develop this afternoon across parts of south FL and the Keys. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft, some of this activity could produce isolated lightning flashes. A shortwave trough will move across the northern CA/western OR vicinity this evening and overnight. Thunderstorms may occur offshore, but potential for lightning over land appears limited. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated showers and thunderstorms producing occasional lighting may persist for a few more hours across eastern/southern OK and vicinity before diminishing as modest warm advection with a south-southwesterly low-level jet weakens later this morning. A cold front will advance southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are expected to remain quite limited ahead of the front, cool mid-level temperatures and strong ascent with the upper trough may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of northern MI this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity could produce occasional gusty winds given strengthening low/mid-level flow through the day, but the overall severe threat still appears low. The front and upper trough will continue across the Northeast tonight. But, instability is forecast to remain minimal, which should hinder thunderstorm potential. Convection should also develop this afternoon across parts of south FL and the Keys. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft, some of this activity could produce isolated lightning flashes. A shortwave trough will move across the northern CA/western OR vicinity this evening and overnight. Thunderstorms may occur offshore, but potential for lightning over land appears limited. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated showers and thunderstorms producing occasional lighting may persist for a few more hours across eastern/southern OK and vicinity before diminishing as modest warm advection with a south-southwesterly low-level jet weakens later this morning. A cold front will advance southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are expected to remain quite limited ahead of the front, cool mid-level temperatures and strong ascent with the upper trough may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of northern MI this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity could produce occasional gusty winds given strengthening low/mid-level flow through the day, but the overall severe threat still appears low. The front and upper trough will continue across the Northeast tonight. But, instability is forecast to remain minimal, which should hinder thunderstorm potential. Convection should also develop this afternoon across parts of south FL and the Keys. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft, some of this activity could produce isolated lightning flashes. A shortwave trough will move across the northern CA/western OR vicinity this evening and overnight. Thunderstorms may occur offshore, but potential for lightning over land appears limited. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated showers and thunderstorms producing occasional lighting may persist for a few more hours across eastern/southern OK and vicinity before diminishing as modest warm advection with a south-southwesterly low-level jet weakens later this morning. A cold front will advance southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are expected to remain quite limited ahead of the front, cool mid-level temperatures and strong ascent with the upper trough may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of northern MI this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity could produce occasional gusty winds given strengthening low/mid-level flow through the day, but the overall severe threat still appears low. The front and upper trough will continue across the Northeast tonight. But, instability is forecast to remain minimal, which should hinder thunderstorm potential. Convection should also develop this afternoon across parts of south FL and the Keys. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft, some of this activity could produce isolated lightning flashes. A shortwave trough will move across the northern CA/western OR vicinity this evening and overnight. Thunderstorms may occur offshore, but potential for lightning over land appears limited. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated showers and thunderstorms producing occasional lighting may persist for a few more hours across eastern/southern OK and vicinity before diminishing as modest warm advection with a south-southwesterly low-level jet weakens later this morning. A cold front will advance southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are expected to remain quite limited ahead of the front, cool mid-level temperatures and strong ascent with the upper trough may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of northern MI this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity could produce occasional gusty winds given strengthening low/mid-level flow through the day, but the overall severe threat still appears low. The front and upper trough will continue across the Northeast tonight. But, instability is forecast to remain minimal, which should hinder thunderstorm potential. Convection should also develop this afternoon across parts of south FL and the Keys. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft, some of this activity could produce isolated lightning flashes. A shortwave trough will move across the northern CA/western OR vicinity this evening and overnight. Thunderstorms may occur offshore, but potential for lightning over land appears limited. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/11/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111118
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that there will be substantive further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley early next week. Peak amplitude may occur near/east of the Atlantic Seaboard early Wednesday, when cool surface ridging may encompass much of the interior U.S. into areas offshore of the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. Although another vigorous digging short wave impulse may reinforce the larger-scale mid-level troughing near the northern Atlantic Seaboard into late week, a southerly return flow may develop across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, ahead of significant mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific. It is possible that this could be accompanied by at least some increase in thunderstorm development ahead of an associated cold front Thursday through Friday. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moistening will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support more than low probabilities for severe thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that there will be substantive further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley early next week. Peak amplitude may occur near/east of the Atlantic Seaboard early Wednesday, when cool surface ridging may encompass much of the interior U.S. into areas offshore of the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. Although another vigorous digging short wave impulse may reinforce the larger-scale mid-level troughing near the northern Atlantic Seaboard into late week, a southerly return flow may develop across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, ahead of significant mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific. It is possible that this could be accompanied by at least some increase in thunderstorm development ahead of an associated cold front Thursday through Friday. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moistening will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support more than low probabilities for severe thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that there will be substantive further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley early next week. Peak amplitude may occur near/east of the Atlantic Seaboard early Wednesday, when cool surface ridging may encompass much of the interior U.S. into areas offshore of the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. Although another vigorous digging short wave impulse may reinforce the larger-scale mid-level troughing near the northern Atlantic Seaboard into late week, a southerly return flow may develop across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, ahead of significant mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific. It is possible that this could be accompanied by at least some increase in thunderstorm development ahead of an associated cold front Thursday through Friday. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moistening will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support more than low probabilities for severe thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that there will be substantive further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley early next week. Peak amplitude may occur near/east of the Atlantic Seaboard early Wednesday, when cool surface ridging may encompass much of the interior U.S. into areas offshore of the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. Although another vigorous digging short wave impulse may reinforce the larger-scale mid-level troughing near the northern Atlantic Seaboard into late week, a southerly return flow may develop across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, ahead of significant mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific. It is possible that this could be accompanied by at least some increase in thunderstorm development ahead of an associated cold front Thursday through Friday. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moistening will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support more than low probabilities for severe thunderstorms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that there will be substantive further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley early next week. Peak amplitude may occur near/east of the Atlantic Seaboard early Wednesday, when cool surface ridging may encompass much of the interior U.S. into areas offshore of the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. Although another vigorous digging short wave impulse may reinforce the larger-scale mid-level troughing near the northern Atlantic Seaboard into late week, a southerly return flow may develop across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, ahead of significant mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific. It is possible that this could be accompanied by at least some increase in thunderstorm development ahead of an associated cold front Thursday through Friday. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moistening will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support more than low probabilities for severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OHIO AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky through West Virginia by early Sunday evening, with some posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified, with at least some further amplification of large-scale troughing across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley through this period. Models indicate at least a couple of vigorous short wave perturbations digging through this regime, one of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to a plume along and southeast of a remnant mid-level shear axis across the central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. However, models indicate that a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer ahead of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Kentucky into West Virginia... Models vary considerably concerning the evolution of the surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into Northeast. However, there appears a general consensus that a moistening but well mixed pre-frontal boundary layer will become characterized by modest CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon, within at least a narrow corridor. It appears that this will occur in the presence of strengthening deep-layer westerly mean wind fields, including 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer. Stronger mid-level height falls may not begin overspreading this corridor until late Sunday afternoon or later, but the environment may remain conducive to strong thunderstorms posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts well into Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OHIO AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky through West Virginia by early Sunday evening, with some posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified, with at least some further amplification of large-scale troughing across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley through this period. Models indicate at least a couple of vigorous short wave perturbations digging through this regime, one of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to a plume along and southeast of a remnant mid-level shear axis across the central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. However, models indicate that a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer ahead of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Kentucky into West Virginia... Models vary considerably concerning the evolution of the surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into Northeast. However, there appears a general consensus that a moistening but well mixed pre-frontal boundary layer will become characterized by modest CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon, within at least a narrow corridor. It appears that this will occur in the presence of strengthening deep-layer westerly mean wind fields, including 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer. Stronger mid-level height falls may not begin overspreading this corridor until late Sunday afternoon or later, but the environment may remain conducive to strong thunderstorms posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts well into Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OHIO AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky through West Virginia by early Sunday evening, with some posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified, with at least some further amplification of large-scale troughing across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley through this period. Models indicate at least a couple of vigorous short wave perturbations digging through this regime, one of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to a plume along and southeast of a remnant mid-level shear axis across the central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. However, models indicate that a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer ahead of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Kentucky into West Virginia... Models vary considerably concerning the evolution of the surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into Northeast. However, there appears a general consensus that a moistening but well mixed pre-frontal boundary layer will become characterized by modest CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon, within at least a narrow corridor. It appears that this will occur in the presence of strengthening deep-layer westerly mean wind fields, including 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer. Stronger mid-level height falls may not begin overspreading this corridor until late Sunday afternoon or later, but the environment may remain conducive to strong thunderstorms posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts well into Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OHIO AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky through West Virginia by early Sunday evening, with some posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified, with at least some further amplification of large-scale troughing across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley through this period. Models indicate at least a couple of vigorous short wave perturbations digging through this regime, one of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to a plume along and southeast of a remnant mid-level shear axis across the central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. However, models indicate that a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer ahead of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Kentucky into West Virginia... Models vary considerably concerning the evolution of the surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into Northeast. However, there appears a general consensus that a moistening but well mixed pre-frontal boundary layer will become characterized by modest CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon, within at least a narrow corridor. It appears that this will occur in the presence of strengthening deep-layer westerly mean wind fields, including 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer. Stronger mid-level height falls may not begin overspreading this corridor until late Sunday afternoon or later, but the environment may remain conducive to strong thunderstorms posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts well into Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest will result in modest mid-level westerly flow across the Great Basin, while east of the Rockies, the flow is predominantly northwesterly with a stronger jet core moving from Canada into the northern Great Plains. These mid-level features are responsible for two separate Elevated highlights on Saturday: one across much of western Utah into far eastern Nevada and northern Arizona, and the other stretching from far southern North Dakota/Western Montana into far northwestern Kansas. ...Great Basin... Daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing will result in relative humidity values of 10-15% and surface wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. While the threat for significant wildfire spread is low, these conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, and dry/windy conditions the preceding day that will contribute to additional curing of fuels. ...Northern and Central Great Plains... Post-frontal dry/breezy conditions are expected across the northern and central Great Plains, with the strongest winds (15-20 MPH) expected further north into South Dakota closer to the mid-level jet core. While the magnitude of surface winds further south remains somewhat uncertain, much of the central and northern Great Plains fuels have ERC values exceeding the annual 98th percentile. Given the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights were extended southward into Nebraska and northern Kansas where winds could reach 15 MPH. ..Halbert.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest will result in modest mid-level westerly flow across the Great Basin, while east of the Rockies, the flow is predominantly northwesterly with a stronger jet core moving from Canada into the northern Great Plains. These mid-level features are responsible for two separate Elevated highlights on Saturday: one across much of western Utah into far eastern Nevada and northern Arizona, and the other stretching from far southern North Dakota/Western Montana into far northwestern Kansas. ...Great Basin... Daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing will result in relative humidity values of 10-15% and surface wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. While the threat for significant wildfire spread is low, these conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, and dry/windy conditions the preceding day that will contribute to additional curing of fuels. ...Northern and Central Great Plains... Post-frontal dry/breezy conditions are expected across the northern and central Great Plains, with the strongest winds (15-20 MPH) expected further north into South Dakota closer to the mid-level jet core. While the magnitude of surface winds further south remains somewhat uncertain, much of the central and northern Great Plains fuels have ERC values exceeding the annual 98th percentile. Given the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights were extended southward into Nebraska and northern Kansas where winds could reach 15 MPH. ..Halbert.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest will result in modest mid-level westerly flow across the Great Basin, while east of the Rockies, the flow is predominantly northwesterly with a stronger jet core moving from Canada into the northern Great Plains. These mid-level features are responsible for two separate Elevated highlights on Saturday: one across much of western Utah into far eastern Nevada and northern Arizona, and the other stretching from far southern North Dakota/Western Montana into far northwestern Kansas. ...Great Basin... Daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing will result in relative humidity values of 10-15% and surface wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. While the threat for significant wildfire spread is low, these conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, and dry/windy conditions the preceding day that will contribute to additional curing of fuels. ...Northern and Central Great Plains... Post-frontal dry/breezy conditions are expected across the northern and central Great Plains, with the strongest winds (15-20 MPH) expected further north into South Dakota closer to the mid-level jet core. While the magnitude of surface winds further south remains somewhat uncertain, much of the central and northern Great Plains fuels have ERC values exceeding the annual 98th percentile. Given the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights were extended southward into Nebraska and northern Kansas where winds could reach 15 MPH. ..Halbert.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more