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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Great Lakes into New England... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes vicinity through the day, and then reach New England by later Friday night. A cold front will move across parts of the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and eventually parts of the Northeast in conjunction with this system. Scant low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front, limiting the thunderstorm potential across much of the warm sector. Very modest buoyancy may develop across the Great Lakes region during the afternoon, and into northern New England late Friday night, where low to mid-level moisture is expected to increase amid cooling mid-level temperatures. This will result in the potential for weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes. At this time, there is a somewhat stronger signal for thunderstorm potential across parts of WI/MI, where a general thunderstorm area has been maintained. A few flashes cannot be ruled out into New England Friday night, though this potential is more uncertain. Low/midlevel flow will be rather strong, so locally gusty winds will be possible if any relatively deep and sustained convection can develop across the region. ...Elsewhere... Elevated convection that may develop late in the D1/Thursday period across OK and north TX could persist into Friday morning, with some thunder potential. Convection may become deep enough to support some thunderstorm potential across the FL Keys, and possibly into southern portions of the FL Peninsula. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of central/northern CA and the Pacific Northwest, but thunderstorm potential across the region currently appears limited due to very weak instability. ..Dean.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Great Lakes into New England... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes vicinity through the day, and then reach New England by later Friday night. A cold front will move across parts of the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and eventually parts of the Northeast in conjunction with this system. Scant low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front, limiting the thunderstorm potential across much of the warm sector. Very modest buoyancy may develop across the Great Lakes region during the afternoon, and into northern New England late Friday night, where low to mid-level moisture is expected to increase amid cooling mid-level temperatures. This will result in the potential for weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes. At this time, there is a somewhat stronger signal for thunderstorm potential across parts of WI/MI, where a general thunderstorm area has been maintained. A few flashes cannot be ruled out into New England Friday night, though this potential is more uncertain. Low/midlevel flow will be rather strong, so locally gusty winds will be possible if any relatively deep and sustained convection can develop across the region. ...Elsewhere... Elevated convection that may develop late in the D1/Thursday period across OK and north TX could persist into Friday morning, with some thunder potential. Convection may become deep enough to support some thunderstorm potential across the FL Keys, and possibly into southern portions of the FL Peninsula. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of central/northern CA and the Pacific Northwest, but thunderstorm potential across the region currently appears limited due to very weak instability. ..Dean.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Great Lakes into New England... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes vicinity through the day, and then reach New England by later Friday night. A cold front will move across parts of the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and eventually parts of the Northeast in conjunction with this system. Scant low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front, limiting the thunderstorm potential across much of the warm sector. Very modest buoyancy may develop across the Great Lakes region during the afternoon, and into northern New England late Friday night, where low to mid-level moisture is expected to increase amid cooling mid-level temperatures. This will result in the potential for weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes. At this time, there is a somewhat stronger signal for thunderstorm potential across parts of WI/MI, where a general thunderstorm area has been maintained. A few flashes cannot be ruled out into New England Friday night, though this potential is more uncertain. Low/midlevel flow will be rather strong, so locally gusty winds will be possible if any relatively deep and sustained convection can develop across the region. ...Elsewhere... Elevated convection that may develop late in the D1/Thursday period across OK and north TX could persist into Friday morning, with some thunder potential. Convection may become deep enough to support some thunderstorm potential across the FL Keys, and possibly into southern portions of the FL Peninsula. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of central/northern CA and the Pacific Northwest, but thunderstorm potential across the region currently appears limited due to very weak instability. ..Dean.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Great Lakes into New England... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes vicinity through the day, and then reach New England by later Friday night. A cold front will move across parts of the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and eventually parts of the Northeast in conjunction with this system. Scant low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front, limiting the thunderstorm potential across much of the warm sector. Very modest buoyancy may develop across the Great Lakes region during the afternoon, and into northern New England late Friday night, where low to mid-level moisture is expected to increase amid cooling mid-level temperatures. This will result in the potential for weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes. At this time, there is a somewhat stronger signal for thunderstorm potential across parts of WI/MI, where a general thunderstorm area has been maintained. A few flashes cannot be ruled out into New England Friday night, though this potential is more uncertain. Low/midlevel flow will be rather strong, so locally gusty winds will be possible if any relatively deep and sustained convection can develop across the region. ...Elsewhere... Elevated convection that may develop late in the D1/Thursday period across OK and north TX could persist into Friday morning, with some thunder potential. Convection may become deep enough to support some thunderstorm potential across the FL Keys, and possibly into southern portions of the FL Peninsula. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of central/northern CA and the Pacific Northwest, but thunderstorm potential across the region currently appears limited due to very weak instability. ..Dean.. 10/10/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101711
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Dry and breezy conditions are expected to remain localized today and tonight across parts of the Dakotas and Great Basin. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the CONUS, with embedded mid-level impulses expected to traverse the ridge through the day today. One impulse will overspread the north-central CONUS, resulting in surface lee troughing and the associated southeastward progression of a cold front over the northern and central Plains. Behind the cold front, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be expected, especially over the Dakotas during the afternoon. While Elevated equivalent conditions may be met for brief periods behind the cold front, such conditions appear too localized and brief in short-range guidance consensus to introduce fire weather highlights at this time. Elsewhere across most of the CONUS, quiescent fire weather conditions will prevail. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be observed over parts of the Great Basin, though these conditions, along with fuel receptiveness, appear too marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Dry and breezy conditions are expected to remain localized today and tonight across parts of the Dakotas and Great Basin. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the CONUS, with embedded mid-level impulses expected to traverse the ridge through the day today. One impulse will overspread the north-central CONUS, resulting in surface lee troughing and the associated southeastward progression of a cold front over the northern and central Plains. Behind the cold front, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be expected, especially over the Dakotas during the afternoon. While Elevated equivalent conditions may be met for brief periods behind the cold front, such conditions appear too localized and brief in short-range guidance consensus to introduce fire weather highlights at this time. Elsewhere across most of the CONUS, quiescent fire weather conditions will prevail. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be observed over parts of the Great Basin, though these conditions, along with fuel receptiveness, appear too marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Dry and breezy conditions are expected to remain localized today and tonight across parts of the Dakotas and Great Basin. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the CONUS, with embedded mid-level impulses expected to traverse the ridge through the day today. One impulse will overspread the north-central CONUS, resulting in surface lee troughing and the associated southeastward progression of a cold front over the northern and central Plains. Behind the cold front, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be expected, especially over the Dakotas during the afternoon. While Elevated equivalent conditions may be met for brief periods behind the cold front, such conditions appear too localized and brief in short-range guidance consensus to introduce fire weather highlights at this time. Elsewhere across most of the CONUS, quiescent fire weather conditions will prevail. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be observed over parts of the Great Basin, though these conditions, along with fuel receptiveness, appear too marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Dry and breezy conditions are expected to remain localized today and tonight across parts of the Dakotas and Great Basin. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the CONUS, with embedded mid-level impulses expected to traverse the ridge through the day today. One impulse will overspread the north-central CONUS, resulting in surface lee troughing and the associated southeastward progression of a cold front over the northern and central Plains. Behind the cold front, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be expected, especially over the Dakotas during the afternoon. While Elevated equivalent conditions may be met for brief periods behind the cold front, such conditions appear too localized and brief in short-range guidance consensus to introduce fire weather highlights at this time. Elsewhere across most of the CONUS, quiescent fire weather conditions will prevail. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be observed over parts of the Great Basin, though these conditions, along with fuel receptiveness, appear too marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Dry and breezy conditions are expected to remain localized today and tonight across parts of the Dakotas and Great Basin. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the CONUS, with embedded mid-level impulses expected to traverse the ridge through the day today. One impulse will overspread the north-central CONUS, resulting in surface lee troughing and the associated southeastward progression of a cold front over the northern and central Plains. Behind the cold front, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be expected, especially over the Dakotas during the afternoon. While Elevated equivalent conditions may be met for brief periods behind the cold front, such conditions appear too localized and brief in short-range guidance consensus to introduce fire weather highlights at this time. Elsewhere across most of the CONUS, quiescent fire weather conditions will prevail. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be observed over parts of the Great Basin, though these conditions, along with fuel receptiveness, appear too marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Dry and breezy conditions are expected to remain localized today and tonight across parts of the Dakotas and Great Basin. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the CONUS, with embedded mid-level impulses expected to traverse the ridge through the day today. One impulse will overspread the north-central CONUS, resulting in surface lee troughing and the associated southeastward progression of a cold front over the northern and central Plains. Behind the cold front, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be expected, especially over the Dakotas during the afternoon. While Elevated equivalent conditions may be met for brief periods behind the cold front, such conditions appear too localized and brief in short-range guidance consensus to introduce fire weather highlights at this time. Elsewhere across most of the CONUS, quiescent fire weather conditions will prevail. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be observed over parts of the Great Basin, though these conditions, along with fuel receptiveness, appear too marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With Milton having moved east and off the FL Atlantic Coast, thunderstorms are not expected over FL through the rest of the period. Otherwise, isolated convection that may produce occasional lighting appears possible across parts of the southern Plains and southeast AZ/southern NM. The activity over the southern Plains will largely be tied to modest low-level warm advection and weak ascent associated with a shortwave trough moving southward from NE/KS. Instability is forecast to remain weak, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With Milton having moved east and off the FL Atlantic Coast, thunderstorms are not expected over FL through the rest of the period. Otherwise, isolated convection that may produce occasional lighting appears possible across parts of the southern Plains and southeast AZ/southern NM. The activity over the southern Plains will largely be tied to modest low-level warm advection and weak ascent associated with a shortwave trough moving southward from NE/KS. Instability is forecast to remain weak, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/10/2024 Read more