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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ..Halbert.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ..Halbert.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ..Halbert.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclogenesis appears underway near the Aleutians and, by early Saturday, models indicate that a broad, deep cyclone will become centered across the northeastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, to the east of the Aleutians. This is forecast to lead to amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of North America, including building mid-level ridging to the east of the Canadian Rockies and digging downstream mid-level troughing across the eastern Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. In lower latitudes, a modest mid-level trough likely will be forced inland across the Oregon/northern California coast, suppressing initial mid-level ridging across the Great Basin into southern Rockies. Downstream, in the wake of the weakening remnants of Milton, forecast to continue migrating east-northeastward through the subtropical Atlantic, a remnant weak frontal zone, initially near or just south of the Florida Keys, is forecast to weaken further. It appears that this will occur beneath generally steady or slowly rising mid-level heights, as a sheared mid-level perturbation shifts across and offshore of northern Florida. Seasonably moist air will generally remain confined to the south of the weakening frontal zone, but some low-level moistening is forecast along an initially quasi-stationary segment of a frontal zone, to the north of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by early Saturday. ...Portions of the Midwest into upper Ohio Valley... Models suggest that weak forcing for ascent and warm mid-levels will suppress thunderstorm development along and south of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. However, downstream of the southern periphery of the digging mid-level troughing, weak destabilization rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may contribute to thunderstorm development within a narrow corridor above the frontal zone/well to the north of the surface front, mainly Saturday night. Given the generally weak forecast instability and cloud-bearing layer shear, the potential for severe hail in stronger storms seems low. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclogenesis appears underway near the Aleutians and, by early Saturday, models indicate that a broad, deep cyclone will become centered across the northeastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, to the east of the Aleutians. This is forecast to lead to amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of North America, including building mid-level ridging to the east of the Canadian Rockies and digging downstream mid-level troughing across the eastern Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. In lower latitudes, a modest mid-level trough likely will be forced inland across the Oregon/northern California coast, suppressing initial mid-level ridging across the Great Basin into southern Rockies. Downstream, in the wake of the weakening remnants of Milton, forecast to continue migrating east-northeastward through the subtropical Atlantic, a remnant weak frontal zone, initially near or just south of the Florida Keys, is forecast to weaken further. It appears that this will occur beneath generally steady or slowly rising mid-level heights, as a sheared mid-level perturbation shifts across and offshore of northern Florida. Seasonably moist air will generally remain confined to the south of the weakening frontal zone, but some low-level moistening is forecast along an initially quasi-stationary segment of a frontal zone, to the north of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by early Saturday. ...Portions of the Midwest into upper Ohio Valley... Models suggest that weak forcing for ascent and warm mid-levels will suppress thunderstorm development along and south of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. However, downstream of the southern periphery of the digging mid-level troughing, weak destabilization rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may contribute to thunderstorm development within a narrow corridor above the frontal zone/well to the north of the surface front, mainly Saturday night. Given the generally weak forecast instability and cloud-bearing layer shear, the potential for severe hail in stronger storms seems low. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclogenesis appears underway near the Aleutians and, by early Saturday, models indicate that a broad, deep cyclone will become centered across the northeastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, to the east of the Aleutians. This is forecast to lead to amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of North America, including building mid-level ridging to the east of the Canadian Rockies and digging downstream mid-level troughing across the eastern Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. In lower latitudes, a modest mid-level trough likely will be forced inland across the Oregon/northern California coast, suppressing initial mid-level ridging across the Great Basin into southern Rockies. Downstream, in the wake of the weakening remnants of Milton, forecast to continue migrating east-northeastward through the subtropical Atlantic, a remnant weak frontal zone, initially near or just south of the Florida Keys, is forecast to weaken further. It appears that this will occur beneath generally steady or slowly rising mid-level heights, as a sheared mid-level perturbation shifts across and offshore of northern Florida. Seasonably moist air will generally remain confined to the south of the weakening frontal zone, but some low-level moistening is forecast along an initially quasi-stationary segment of a frontal zone, to the north of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by early Saturday. ...Portions of the Midwest into upper Ohio Valley... Models suggest that weak forcing for ascent and warm mid-levels will suppress thunderstorm development along and south of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. However, downstream of the southern periphery of the digging mid-level troughing, weak destabilization rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may contribute to thunderstorm development within a narrow corridor above the frontal zone/well to the north of the surface front, mainly Saturday night. Given the generally weak forecast instability and cloud-bearing layer shear, the potential for severe hail in stronger storms seems low. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclogenesis appears underway near the Aleutians and, by early Saturday, models indicate that a broad, deep cyclone will become centered across the northeastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, to the east of the Aleutians. This is forecast to lead to amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of North America, including building mid-level ridging to the east of the Canadian Rockies and digging downstream mid-level troughing across the eastern Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. In lower latitudes, a modest mid-level trough likely will be forced inland across the Oregon/northern California coast, suppressing initial mid-level ridging across the Great Basin into southern Rockies. Downstream, in the wake of the weakening remnants of Milton, forecast to continue migrating east-northeastward through the subtropical Atlantic, a remnant weak frontal zone, initially near or just south of the Florida Keys, is forecast to weaken further. It appears that this will occur beneath generally steady or slowly rising mid-level heights, as a sheared mid-level perturbation shifts across and offshore of northern Florida. Seasonably moist air will generally remain confined to the south of the weakening frontal zone, but some low-level moistening is forecast along an initially quasi-stationary segment of a frontal zone, to the north of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by early Saturday. ...Portions of the Midwest into upper Ohio Valley... Models suggest that weak forcing for ascent and warm mid-levels will suppress thunderstorm development along and south of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. However, downstream of the southern periphery of the digging mid-level troughing, weak destabilization rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may contribute to thunderstorm development within a narrow corridor above the frontal zone/well to the north of the surface front, mainly Saturday night. Given the generally weak forecast instability and cloud-bearing layer shear, the potential for severe hail in stronger storms seems low. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclogenesis appears underway near the Aleutians and, by early Saturday, models indicate that a broad, deep cyclone will become centered across the northeastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, to the east of the Aleutians. This is forecast to lead to amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of North America, including building mid-level ridging to the east of the Canadian Rockies and digging downstream mid-level troughing across the eastern Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. In lower latitudes, a modest mid-level trough likely will be forced inland across the Oregon/northern California coast, suppressing initial mid-level ridging across the Great Basin into southern Rockies. Downstream, in the wake of the weakening remnants of Milton, forecast to continue migrating east-northeastward through the subtropical Atlantic, a remnant weak frontal zone, initially near or just south of the Florida Keys, is forecast to weaken further. It appears that this will occur beneath generally steady or slowly rising mid-level heights, as a sheared mid-level perturbation shifts across and offshore of northern Florida. Seasonably moist air will generally remain confined to the south of the weakening frontal zone, but some low-level moistening is forecast along an initially quasi-stationary segment of a frontal zone, to the north of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by early Saturday. ...Portions of the Midwest into upper Ohio Valley... Models suggest that weak forcing for ascent and warm mid-levels will suppress thunderstorm development along and south of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. However, downstream of the southern periphery of the digging mid-level troughing, weak destabilization rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may contribute to thunderstorm development within a narrow corridor above the frontal zone/well to the north of the surface front, mainly Saturday night. Given the generally weak forecast instability and cloud-bearing layer shear, the potential for severe hail in stronger storms seems low. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis... Weak flow aloft will prevail today over the southern half of the U.S., while a belt of fast west-northwesterlies extends from the northern Intermountain region to the Northeast. Within this fast belt of flow, a short-wave trough moving quickly southeastward across central Canada will brush the Great Lakes region. Accompanying this feature, a surface cold front will move quickly across the Upper Great Lakes through the first half of the period, and then across the Lower Lakes and Northeast overnight. The trailing portion of this front will become oriented roughly west-to-east with time across the central Plains and Midwest, through Saturday morning. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible across the northern Lower Michigan vicinity near peak heating, along the fast-moving cold front, where steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to modest CAPE. The deep-layer wind field -- increasing in intensity and slightly veering with height -- would support organized/severe storms in a more favorable thermodynamic environment. However, given weak CAPE, and a dry -- and likely to be slightly stable -- boundary layer, any gusty outflow winds should remain very local, and likely to remain below severe levels. Convection should weaken quickly through sunset. ..Goss/Halbert.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis... Weak flow aloft will prevail today over the southern half of the U.S., while a belt of fast west-northwesterlies extends from the northern Intermountain region to the Northeast. Within this fast belt of flow, a short-wave trough moving quickly southeastward across central Canada will brush the Great Lakes region. Accompanying this feature, a surface cold front will move quickly across the Upper Great Lakes through the first half of the period, and then across the Lower Lakes and Northeast overnight. The trailing portion of this front will become oriented roughly west-to-east with time across the central Plains and Midwest, through Saturday morning. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible across the northern Lower Michigan vicinity near peak heating, along the fast-moving cold front, where steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to modest CAPE. The deep-layer wind field -- increasing in intensity and slightly veering with height -- would support organized/severe storms in a more favorable thermodynamic environment. However, given weak CAPE, and a dry -- and likely to be slightly stable -- boundary layer, any gusty outflow winds should remain very local, and likely to remain below severe levels. Convection should weaken quickly through sunset. ..Goss/Halbert.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis... Weak flow aloft will prevail today over the southern half of the U.S., while a belt of fast west-northwesterlies extends from the northern Intermountain region to the Northeast. Within this fast belt of flow, a short-wave trough moving quickly southeastward across central Canada will brush the Great Lakes region. Accompanying this feature, a surface cold front will move quickly across the Upper Great Lakes through the first half of the period, and then across the Lower Lakes and Northeast overnight. The trailing portion of this front will become oriented roughly west-to-east with time across the central Plains and Midwest, through Saturday morning. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible across the northern Lower Michigan vicinity near peak heating, along the fast-moving cold front, where steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to modest CAPE. The deep-layer wind field -- increasing in intensity and slightly veering with height -- would support organized/severe storms in a more favorable thermodynamic environment. However, given weak CAPE, and a dry -- and likely to be slightly stable -- boundary layer, any gusty outflow winds should remain very local, and likely to remain below severe levels. Convection should weaken quickly through sunset. ..Goss/Halbert.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis... Weak flow aloft will prevail today over the southern half of the U.S., while a belt of fast west-northwesterlies extends from the northern Intermountain region to the Northeast. Within this fast belt of flow, a short-wave trough moving quickly southeastward across central Canada will brush the Great Lakes region. Accompanying this feature, a surface cold front will move quickly across the Upper Great Lakes through the first half of the period, and then across the Lower Lakes and Northeast overnight. The trailing portion of this front will become oriented roughly west-to-east with time across the central Plains and Midwest, through Saturday morning. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible across the northern Lower Michigan vicinity near peak heating, along the fast-moving cold front, where steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to modest CAPE. The deep-layer wind field -- increasing in intensity and slightly veering with height -- would support organized/severe storms in a more favorable thermodynamic environment. However, given weak CAPE, and a dry -- and likely to be slightly stable -- boundary layer, any gusty outflow winds should remain very local, and likely to remain below severe levels. Convection should weaken quickly through sunset. ..Goss/Halbert.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis... Weak flow aloft will prevail today over the southern half of the U.S., while a belt of fast west-northwesterlies extends from the northern Intermountain region to the Northeast. Within this fast belt of flow, a short-wave trough moving quickly southeastward across central Canada will brush the Great Lakes region. Accompanying this feature, a surface cold front will move quickly across the Upper Great Lakes through the first half of the period, and then across the Lower Lakes and Northeast overnight. The trailing portion of this front will become oriented roughly west-to-east with time across the central Plains and Midwest, through Saturday morning. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible across the northern Lower Michigan vicinity near peak heating, along the fast-moving cold front, where steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to modest CAPE. The deep-layer wind field -- increasing in intensity and slightly veering with height -- would support organized/severe storms in a more favorable thermodynamic environment. However, given weak CAPE, and a dry -- and likely to be slightly stable -- boundary layer, any gusty outflow winds should remain very local, and likely to remain below severe levels. Convection should weaken quickly through sunset. ..Goss/Halbert.. 10/11/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110523
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and a few thunderstorms will persist this evening -- and possibly overnight -- across parts of Oklahoma and adjacent North Texas, as a weak mid-level disturbance drifts southeastward across this region. Elsewhere, earlier convection with occasional lighting flashes over eastern Arizona/western New Mexico will continue to dissipate, with little to no additional lightning expected. ..Goss.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and a few thunderstorms will persist this evening -- and possibly overnight -- across parts of Oklahoma and adjacent North Texas, as a weak mid-level disturbance drifts southeastward across this region. Elsewhere, earlier convection with occasional lighting flashes over eastern Arizona/western New Mexico will continue to dissipate, with little to no additional lightning expected. ..Goss.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and a few thunderstorms will persist this evening -- and possibly overnight -- across parts of Oklahoma and adjacent North Texas, as a weak mid-level disturbance drifts southeastward across this region. Elsewhere, earlier convection with occasional lighting flashes over eastern Arizona/western New Mexico will continue to dissipate, with little to no additional lightning expected. ..Goss.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and a few thunderstorms will persist this evening -- and possibly overnight -- across parts of Oklahoma and adjacent North Texas, as a weak mid-level disturbance drifts southeastward across this region. Elsewhere, earlier convection with occasional lighting flashes over eastern Arizona/western New Mexico will continue to dissipate, with little to no additional lightning expected. ..Goss.. 10/11/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102326
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 10 22:29:01 UTC 2024.