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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Saturday. ...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will begin to amplify across parts of the north-central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, as a shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A surface low is expected to develop during the day near the IA/MO/IL border region, along a quasi-stationary surface front. This low is forecast to move eastward along the front toward the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening, as a trailing cold front begins to move southeastward. While modest low-level moistening and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak to locally moderate destabilization along/south of the front, potential for warm-sector storm development still appears limited in the absence of more robust moisture return. However, low-level warm/moist advection will support potential for elevated convection to the north of the front, especially from late afternoon into the evening across northern IL/IN, northwest OH and far southern lower MI. Gradually deepening deep-layer flow/shear could support transient storm organization, though with only modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) currently expected north of the front, potential for severe hail is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Saturday. ...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will begin to amplify across parts of the north-central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, as a shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A surface low is expected to develop during the day near the IA/MO/IL border region, along a quasi-stationary surface front. This low is forecast to move eastward along the front toward the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening, as a trailing cold front begins to move southeastward. While modest low-level moistening and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak to locally moderate destabilization along/south of the front, potential for warm-sector storm development still appears limited in the absence of more robust moisture return. However, low-level warm/moist advection will support potential for elevated convection to the north of the front, especially from late afternoon into the evening across northern IL/IN, northwest OH and far southern lower MI. Gradually deepening deep-layer flow/shear could support transient storm organization, though with only modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) currently expected north of the front, potential for severe hail is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Saturday. ...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will begin to amplify across parts of the north-central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, as a shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A surface low is expected to develop during the day near the IA/MO/IL border region, along a quasi-stationary surface front. This low is forecast to move eastward along the front toward the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening, as a trailing cold front begins to move southeastward. While modest low-level moistening and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak to locally moderate destabilization along/south of the front, potential for warm-sector storm development still appears limited in the absence of more robust moisture return. However, low-level warm/moist advection will support potential for elevated convection to the north of the front, especially from late afternoon into the evening across northern IL/IN, northwest OH and far southern lower MI. Gradually deepening deep-layer flow/shear could support transient storm organization, though with only modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) currently expected north of the front, potential for severe hail is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Saturday. ...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will begin to amplify across parts of the north-central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, as a shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A surface low is expected to develop during the day near the IA/MO/IL border region, along a quasi-stationary surface front. This low is forecast to move eastward along the front toward the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening, as a trailing cold front begins to move southeastward. While modest low-level moistening and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak to locally moderate destabilization along/south of the front, potential for warm-sector storm development still appears limited in the absence of more robust moisture return. However, low-level warm/moist advection will support potential for elevated convection to the north of the front, especially from late afternoon into the evening across northern IL/IN, northwest OH and far southern lower MI. Gradually deepening deep-layer flow/shear could support transient storm organization, though with only modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) currently expected north of the front, potential for severe hail is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Saturday. ...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will begin to amplify across parts of the north-central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, as a shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A surface low is expected to develop during the day near the IA/MO/IL border region, along a quasi-stationary surface front. This low is forecast to move eastward along the front toward the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening, as a trailing cold front begins to move southeastward. While modest low-level moistening and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak to locally moderate destabilization along/south of the front, potential for warm-sector storm development still appears limited in the absence of more robust moisture return. However, low-level warm/moist advection will support potential for elevated convection to the north of the front, especially from late afternoon into the evening across northern IL/IN, northwest OH and far southern lower MI. Gradually deepening deep-layer flow/shear could support transient storm organization, though with only modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) currently expected north of the front, potential for severe hail is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Saturday. ...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will begin to amplify across parts of the north-central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, as a shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A surface low is expected to develop during the day near the IA/MO/IL border region, along a quasi-stationary surface front. This low is forecast to move eastward along the front toward the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening, as a trailing cold front begins to move southeastward. While modest low-level moistening and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak to locally moderate destabilization along/south of the front, potential for warm-sector storm development still appears limited in the absence of more robust moisture return. However, low-level warm/moist advection will support potential for elevated convection to the north of the front, especially from late afternoon into the evening across northern IL/IN, northwest OH and far southern lower MI. Gradually deepening deep-layer flow/shear could support transient storm organization, though with only modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) currently expected north of the front, potential for severe hail is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Saturday. ...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will begin to amplify across parts of the north-central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, as a shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A surface low is expected to develop during the day near the IA/MO/IL border region, along a quasi-stationary surface front. This low is forecast to move eastward along the front toward the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening, as a trailing cold front begins to move southeastward. While modest low-level moistening and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak to locally moderate destabilization along/south of the front, potential for warm-sector storm development still appears limited in the absence of more robust moisture return. However, low-level warm/moist advection will support potential for elevated convection to the north of the front, especially from late afternoon into the evening across northern IL/IN, northwest OH and far southern lower MI. Gradually deepening deep-layer flow/shear could support transient storm organization, though with only modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) currently expected north of the front, potential for severe hail is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

After a third wildfire was found in the Superior National Forest, a campfire ban was expanded to cover the entire forest. The Minnesota Star Tribune (Minneapolis), Oct 11, 2024

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17Z Update... No changes are needed for today's outlook. Sustained wind speeds are still expected to increase to around 15-20 mph from the south and southwest this afternoon across portions of eastern NV and southwestern UT. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17Z Update... No changes are needed for today's outlook. Sustained wind speeds are still expected to increase to around 15-20 mph from the south and southwest this afternoon across portions of eastern NV and southwestern UT. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17Z Update... No changes are needed for today's outlook. Sustained wind speeds are still expected to increase to around 15-20 mph from the south and southwest this afternoon across portions of eastern NV and southwestern UT. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17Z Update... No changes are needed for today's outlook. Sustained wind speeds are still expected to increase to around 15-20 mph from the south and southwest this afternoon across portions of eastern NV and southwestern UT. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17Z Update... No changes are needed for today's outlook. Sustained wind speeds are still expected to increase to around 15-20 mph from the south and southwest this afternoon across portions of eastern NV and southwestern UT. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more