Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Four Corners and the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an embedded mid-level impulse pivots around the trough over the MS Valley tomorrow (Monday). A mid-level cut-off low will also meander over the Four Corners region. As the aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreads the Great Lakes, cooler temperatures aloft atop warm waters will support near-dry adiabatic lapse rates, which may support deep-enough convection to foster a few lightning flashes (especially over water). Cooler temperatures aloft will also support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) over the higher terrain of the Four Corners region, with isolated lightning flashes possible when also considering orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Four Corners and the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an embedded mid-level impulse pivots around the trough over the MS Valley tomorrow (Monday). A mid-level cut-off low will also meander over the Four Corners region. As the aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreads the Great Lakes, cooler temperatures aloft atop warm waters will support near-dry adiabatic lapse rates, which may support deep-enough convection to foster a few lightning flashes (especially over water). Cooler temperatures aloft will also support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) over the higher terrain of the Four Corners region, with isolated lightning flashes possible when also considering orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Four Corners and the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an embedded mid-level impulse pivots around the trough over the MS Valley tomorrow (Monday). A mid-level cut-off low will also meander over the Four Corners region. As the aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreads the Great Lakes, cooler temperatures aloft atop warm waters will support near-dry adiabatic lapse rates, which may support deep-enough convection to foster a few lightning flashes (especially over water). Cooler temperatures aloft will also support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) over the higher terrain of the Four Corners region, with isolated lightning flashes possible when also considering orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Four Corners and the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an embedded mid-level impulse pivots around the trough over the MS Valley tomorrow (Monday). A mid-level cut-off low will also meander over the Four Corners region. As the aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreads the Great Lakes, cooler temperatures aloft atop warm waters will support near-dry adiabatic lapse rates, which may support deep-enough convection to foster a few lightning flashes (especially over water). Cooler temperatures aloft will also support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) over the higher terrain of the Four Corners region, with isolated lightning flashes possible when also considering orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Four Corners and the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an embedded mid-level impulse pivots around the trough over the MS Valley tomorrow (Monday). A mid-level cut-off low will also meander over the Four Corners region. As the aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreads the Great Lakes, cooler temperatures aloft atop warm waters will support near-dry adiabatic lapse rates, which may support deep-enough convection to foster a few lightning flashes (especially over water). Cooler temperatures aloft will also support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) over the higher terrain of the Four Corners region, with isolated lightning flashes possible when also considering orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Four Corners and the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an embedded mid-level impulse pivots around the trough over the MS Valley tomorrow (Monday). A mid-level cut-off low will also meander over the Four Corners region. As the aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreads the Great Lakes, cooler temperatures aloft atop warm waters will support near-dry adiabatic lapse rates, which may support deep-enough convection to foster a few lightning flashes (especially over water). Cooler temperatures aloft will also support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) over the higher terrain of the Four Corners region, with isolated lightning flashes possible when also considering orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Four Corners and the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an embedded mid-level impulse pivots around the trough over the MS Valley tomorrow (Monday). A mid-level cut-off low will also meander over the Four Corners region. As the aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreads the Great Lakes, cooler temperatures aloft atop warm waters will support near-dry adiabatic lapse rates, which may support deep-enough convection to foster a few lightning flashes (especially over water). Cooler temperatures aloft will also support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) over the higher terrain of the Four Corners region, with isolated lightning flashes possible when also considering orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Four Corners and the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an embedded mid-level impulse pivots around the trough over the MS Valley tomorrow (Monday). A mid-level cut-off low will also meander over the Four Corners region. As the aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreads the Great Lakes, cooler temperatures aloft atop warm waters will support near-dry adiabatic lapse rates, which may support deep-enough convection to foster a few lightning flashes (especially over water). Cooler temperatures aloft will also support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) over the higher terrain of the Four Corners region, with isolated lightning flashes possible when also considering orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...17Z Update... A minor areal extension was made to the Elevated area across OK to include portions of southern KS. Observational trends in relative humidity, along with the latest hires guidance, suggest a drop to near or just below 20 percent will occur by early this afternoon within this added region. Northerly wind speeds behind a cold front are also expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph later today. In addition, fuels are highly receptive to fire spread across the Plains. Please see the previous discussion for the Elevated area across AZ and UT, where the forecast has not been adjusted. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly surface winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy post-frontal flow in Oklahoma will also support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... The forecast has trended a little less dry, with relative humidity values between 15-20% and 15-20 MPH winds. The strongest winds (approaching 20 MPH sustained) will be confined to northwest Arizona, where ERC values are on the lower end at the 80th annual percentile and relative humidity is closer to 20%. Further north in Utah, fuels vary between the 90th and 95th annual percentiles and are colocated with <15% relative humidity values, but confidence in winds exceeding sustained 15 MPH is lower. Given the overall spread of moisture, wind speeds, and fuel percentiles over the area, Elevated highlights have been maintained with no introduction of Critical areas. ...Oklahoma... Forecast guidance has come into better agreement for 15-20% relative humidity and 15 MPH winds during the afternoon as a cold front moves southward across Oklahoma. Fuels guidance shows ERC values at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile, supporting both wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...17Z Update... A minor areal extension was made to the Elevated area across OK to include portions of southern KS. Observational trends in relative humidity, along with the latest hires guidance, suggest a drop to near or just below 20 percent will occur by early this afternoon within this added region. Northerly wind speeds behind a cold front are also expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph later today. In addition, fuels are highly receptive to fire spread across the Plains. Please see the previous discussion for the Elevated area across AZ and UT, where the forecast has not been adjusted. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly surface winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy post-frontal flow in Oklahoma will also support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... The forecast has trended a little less dry, with relative humidity values between 15-20% and 15-20 MPH winds. The strongest winds (approaching 20 MPH sustained) will be confined to northwest Arizona, where ERC values are on the lower end at the 80th annual percentile and relative humidity is closer to 20%. Further north in Utah, fuels vary between the 90th and 95th annual percentiles and are colocated with <15% relative humidity values, but confidence in winds exceeding sustained 15 MPH is lower. Given the overall spread of moisture, wind speeds, and fuel percentiles over the area, Elevated highlights have been maintained with no introduction of Critical areas. ...Oklahoma... Forecast guidance has come into better agreement for 15-20% relative humidity and 15 MPH winds during the afternoon as a cold front moves southward across Oklahoma. Fuels guidance shows ERC values at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile, supporting both wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...17Z Update... A minor areal extension was made to the Elevated area across OK to include portions of southern KS. Observational trends in relative humidity, along with the latest hires guidance, suggest a drop to near or just below 20 percent will occur by early this afternoon within this added region. Northerly wind speeds behind a cold front are also expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph later today. In addition, fuels are highly receptive to fire spread across the Plains. Please see the previous discussion for the Elevated area across AZ and UT, where the forecast has not been adjusted. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly surface winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy post-frontal flow in Oklahoma will also support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... The forecast has trended a little less dry, with relative humidity values between 15-20% and 15-20 MPH winds. The strongest winds (approaching 20 MPH sustained) will be confined to northwest Arizona, where ERC values are on the lower end at the 80th annual percentile and relative humidity is closer to 20%. Further north in Utah, fuels vary between the 90th and 95th annual percentiles and are colocated with <15% relative humidity values, but confidence in winds exceeding sustained 15 MPH is lower. Given the overall spread of moisture, wind speeds, and fuel percentiles over the area, Elevated highlights have been maintained with no introduction of Critical areas. ...Oklahoma... Forecast guidance has come into better agreement for 15-20% relative humidity and 15 MPH winds during the afternoon as a cold front moves southward across Oklahoma. Fuels guidance shows ERC values at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile, supporting both wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...17Z Update... A minor areal extension was made to the Elevated area across OK to include portions of southern KS. Observational trends in relative humidity, along with the latest hires guidance, suggest a drop to near or just below 20 percent will occur by early this afternoon within this added region. Northerly wind speeds behind a cold front are also expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph later today. In addition, fuels are highly receptive to fire spread across the Plains. Please see the previous discussion for the Elevated area across AZ and UT, where the forecast has not been adjusted. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly surface winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy post-frontal flow in Oklahoma will also support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... The forecast has trended a little less dry, with relative humidity values between 15-20% and 15-20 MPH winds. The strongest winds (approaching 20 MPH sustained) will be confined to northwest Arizona, where ERC values are on the lower end at the 80th annual percentile and relative humidity is closer to 20%. Further north in Utah, fuels vary between the 90th and 95th annual percentiles and are colocated with <15% relative humidity values, but confidence in winds exceeding sustained 15 MPH is lower. Given the overall spread of moisture, wind speeds, and fuel percentiles over the area, Elevated highlights have been maintained with no introduction of Critical areas. ...Oklahoma... Forecast guidance has come into better agreement for 15-20% relative humidity and 15 MPH winds during the afternoon as a cold front moves southward across Oklahoma. Fuels guidance shows ERC values at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile, supporting both wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...17Z Update... A minor areal extension was made to the Elevated area across OK to include portions of southern KS. Observational trends in relative humidity, along with the latest hires guidance, suggest a drop to near or just below 20 percent will occur by early this afternoon within this added region. Northerly wind speeds behind a cold front are also expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph later today. In addition, fuels are highly receptive to fire spread across the Plains. Please see the previous discussion for the Elevated area across AZ and UT, where the forecast has not been adjusted. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly surface winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy post-frontal flow in Oklahoma will also support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... The forecast has trended a little less dry, with relative humidity values between 15-20% and 15-20 MPH winds. The strongest winds (approaching 20 MPH sustained) will be confined to northwest Arizona, where ERC values are on the lower end at the 80th annual percentile and relative humidity is closer to 20%. Further north in Utah, fuels vary between the 90th and 95th annual percentiles and are colocated with <15% relative humidity values, but confidence in winds exceeding sustained 15 MPH is lower. Given the overall spread of moisture, wind speeds, and fuel percentiles over the area, Elevated highlights have been maintained with no introduction of Critical areas. ...Oklahoma... Forecast guidance has come into better agreement for 15-20% relative humidity and 15 MPH winds during the afternoon as a cold front moves southward across Oklahoma. Fuels guidance shows ERC values at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile, supporting both wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...17Z Update... A minor areal extension was made to the Elevated area across OK to include portions of southern KS. Observational trends in relative humidity, along with the latest hires guidance, suggest a drop to near or just below 20 percent will occur by early this afternoon within this added region. Northerly wind speeds behind a cold front are also expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph later today. In addition, fuels are highly receptive to fire spread across the Plains. Please see the previous discussion for the Elevated area across AZ and UT, where the forecast has not been adjusted. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly surface winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy post-frontal flow in Oklahoma will also support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... The forecast has trended a little less dry, with relative humidity values between 15-20% and 15-20 MPH winds. The strongest winds (approaching 20 MPH sustained) will be confined to northwest Arizona, where ERC values are on the lower end at the 80th annual percentile and relative humidity is closer to 20%. Further north in Utah, fuels vary between the 90th and 95th annual percentiles and are colocated with <15% relative humidity values, but confidence in winds exceeding sustained 15 MPH is lower. Given the overall spread of moisture, wind speeds, and fuel percentiles over the area, Elevated highlights have been maintained with no introduction of Critical areas. ...Oklahoma... Forecast guidance has come into better agreement for 15-20% relative humidity and 15 MPH winds during the afternoon as a cold front moves southward across Oklahoma. Fuels guidance shows ERC values at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile, supporting both wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...17Z Update... A minor areal extension was made to the Elevated area across OK to include portions of southern KS. Observational trends in relative humidity, along with the latest hires guidance, suggest a drop to near or just below 20 percent will occur by early this afternoon within this added region. Northerly wind speeds behind a cold front are also expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph later today. In addition, fuels are highly receptive to fire spread across the Plains. Please see the previous discussion for the Elevated area across AZ and UT, where the forecast has not been adjusted. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly surface winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy post-frontal flow in Oklahoma will also support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... The forecast has trended a little less dry, with relative humidity values between 15-20% and 15-20 MPH winds. The strongest winds (approaching 20 MPH sustained) will be confined to northwest Arizona, where ERC values are on the lower end at the 80th annual percentile and relative humidity is closer to 20%. Further north in Utah, fuels vary between the 90th and 95th annual percentiles and are colocated with <15% relative humidity values, but confidence in winds exceeding sustained 15 MPH is lower. Given the overall spread of moisture, wind speeds, and fuel percentiles over the area, Elevated highlights have been maintained with no introduction of Critical areas. ...Oklahoma... Forecast guidance has come into better agreement for 15-20% relative humidity and 15 MPH winds during the afternoon as a cold front moves southward across Oklahoma. Fuels guidance shows ERC values at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile, supporting both wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...17Z Update... A minor areal extension was made to the Elevated area across OK to include portions of southern KS. Observational trends in relative humidity, along with the latest hires guidance, suggest a drop to near or just below 20 percent will occur by early this afternoon within this added region. Northerly wind speeds behind a cold front are also expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph later today. In addition, fuels are highly receptive to fire spread across the Plains. Please see the previous discussion for the Elevated area across AZ and UT, where the forecast has not been adjusted. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly surface winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy post-frontal flow in Oklahoma will also support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... The forecast has trended a little less dry, with relative humidity values between 15-20% and 15-20 MPH winds. The strongest winds (approaching 20 MPH sustained) will be confined to northwest Arizona, where ERC values are on the lower end at the 80th annual percentile and relative humidity is closer to 20%. Further north in Utah, fuels vary between the 90th and 95th annual percentiles and are colocated with <15% relative humidity values, but confidence in winds exceeding sustained 15 MPH is lower. Given the overall spread of moisture, wind speeds, and fuel percentiles over the area, Elevated highlights have been maintained with no introduction of Critical areas. ...Oklahoma... Forecast guidance has come into better agreement for 15-20% relative humidity and 15 MPH winds during the afternoon as a cold front moves southward across Oklahoma. Fuels guidance shows ERC values at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile, supporting both wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/13/2024 Read more