Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears much better consensus between the ECENS/ECMWF and GEFS/GFS concerning the evolution of the mid/upper flow late this week into early next week. Within larger-scale mid-level troughing developing inland of the Pacific coast by mid week, one embedded short wave impulse progressing northeast of the Canadian Rockies at the outset of the period is forecast to pivot across the Canadian Prairies into the higher latitudes of interior Canada, accompanied by the consolidating primary surface cyclone. It now appears probable that the significant trailing short wave perturbation will undergo considerable amplification and split off the main belt of westerlies, while digging inland of the northern Pacific coast. It appears that this will include the evolution of a deepening mid-level low near/east of the Sierra Nevada into the Southwest, where it may linger into next weekend as low-amplitude ridging shifts inland within the westerlies across the Canadian Rockies/Prairies and adjacent international border vicinity. As westerly mean flow then strengthens downstream of digging large-scale troughing off the Pacific coast late this weekend into early next week, it appears that the low will transition to an open wave and accelerate across the Rockies through the central Great Plains, around the northern periphery of building ridging in the subtropical latitudes. Preceding the emergence of the perturbation from the Southwest, the models continue to indicate that the development of a moistening southerly return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will be impeded by the maintenance of surface ridging across much of the eastern U.S. through northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. While some strong thunderstorm development might not be entirely out of the question, particularly Friday with some modest initial moistening near lingering relatively deep surface troughing across the central high plains, the risk for severe weather appears generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears much better consensus between the ECENS/ECMWF and GEFS/GFS concerning the evolution of the mid/upper flow late this week into early next week. Within larger-scale mid-level troughing developing inland of the Pacific coast by mid week, one embedded short wave impulse progressing northeast of the Canadian Rockies at the outset of the period is forecast to pivot across the Canadian Prairies into the higher latitudes of interior Canada, accompanied by the consolidating primary surface cyclone. It now appears probable that the significant trailing short wave perturbation will undergo considerable amplification and split off the main belt of westerlies, while digging inland of the northern Pacific coast. It appears that this will include the evolution of a deepening mid-level low near/east of the Sierra Nevada into the Southwest, where it may linger into next weekend as low-amplitude ridging shifts inland within the westerlies across the Canadian Rockies/Prairies and adjacent international border vicinity. As westerly mean flow then strengthens downstream of digging large-scale troughing off the Pacific coast late this weekend into early next week, it appears that the low will transition to an open wave and accelerate across the Rockies through the central Great Plains, around the northern periphery of building ridging in the subtropical latitudes. Preceding the emergence of the perturbation from the Southwest, the models continue to indicate that the development of a moistening southerly return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will be impeded by the maintenance of surface ridging across much of the eastern U.S. through northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. While some strong thunderstorm development might not be entirely out of the question, particularly Friday with some modest initial moistening near lingering relatively deep surface troughing across the central high plains, the risk for severe weather appears generally low through this period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... It appears that thunderstorm development will remain limited, with negligible risk for severe weather across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will continue to develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains during this period. Within this regime, one short wave impulse emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a trailing perturbation digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region appears likely to accelerate northeastward into and across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, as it becomes absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow. In response to the upstream developments, and the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic, initially amplified mid-level troughing near the Atlantic Seaboard will tend to remain progressive, but undergo considerable deformation near and offshore of the coast through early Thursday. One remnant embedded perturbation may support a developing surface wave along an associated frontal zone well offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. While this migrates east-northeastward through the Atlantic, the trailing front may linger near or just south of the Florida Keys, while stalling/weakening across the south central Gulf of Mexico into lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwest Texas into New Mexico. Thus, despite the potential focus and forcing near the deepening surface troughing, from eastern Colorado/western Kansas through eastern Montana and the western Dakotas by late Wednesday night, the risk for thunderstorm development (and potential for severe weather) appears negligible. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... It appears that thunderstorm development will remain limited, with negligible risk for severe weather across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will continue to develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains during this period. Within this regime, one short wave impulse emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a trailing perturbation digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region appears likely to accelerate northeastward into and across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, as it becomes absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow. In response to the upstream developments, and the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic, initially amplified mid-level troughing near the Atlantic Seaboard will tend to remain progressive, but undergo considerable deformation near and offshore of the coast through early Thursday. One remnant embedded perturbation may support a developing surface wave along an associated frontal zone well offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. While this migrates east-northeastward through the Atlantic, the trailing front may linger near or just south of the Florida Keys, while stalling/weakening across the south central Gulf of Mexico into lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwest Texas into New Mexico. Thus, despite the potential focus and forcing near the deepening surface troughing, from eastern Colorado/western Kansas through eastern Montana and the western Dakotas by late Wednesday night, the risk for thunderstorm development (and potential for severe weather) appears negligible. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... It appears that thunderstorm development will remain limited, with negligible risk for severe weather across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will continue to develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains during this period. Within this regime, one short wave impulse emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a trailing perturbation digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region appears likely to accelerate northeastward into and across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, as it becomes absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow. In response to the upstream developments, and the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic, initially amplified mid-level troughing near the Atlantic Seaboard will tend to remain progressive, but undergo considerable deformation near and offshore of the coast through early Thursday. One remnant embedded perturbation may support a developing surface wave along an associated frontal zone well offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. While this migrates east-northeastward through the Atlantic, the trailing front may linger near or just south of the Florida Keys, while stalling/weakening across the south central Gulf of Mexico into lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwest Texas into New Mexico. Thus, despite the potential focus and forcing near the deepening surface troughing, from eastern Colorado/western Kansas through eastern Montana and the western Dakotas by late Wednesday night, the risk for thunderstorm development (and potential for severe weather) appears negligible. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... It appears that thunderstorm development will remain limited, with negligible risk for severe weather across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will continue to develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains during this period. Within this regime, one short wave impulse emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a trailing perturbation digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region appears likely to accelerate northeastward into and across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, as it becomes absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow. In response to the upstream developments, and the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic, initially amplified mid-level troughing near the Atlantic Seaboard will tend to remain progressive, but undergo considerable deformation near and offshore of the coast through early Thursday. One remnant embedded perturbation may support a developing surface wave along an associated frontal zone well offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. While this migrates east-northeastward through the Atlantic, the trailing front may linger near or just south of the Florida Keys, while stalling/weakening across the south central Gulf of Mexico into lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwest Texas into New Mexico. Thus, despite the potential focus and forcing near the deepening surface troughing, from eastern Colorado/western Kansas through eastern Montana and the western Dakotas by late Wednesday night, the risk for thunderstorm development (and potential for severe weather) appears negligible. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output is not much different from prior runs for this period. Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue to gradually amplify across the eastern U.S., as a significant embedded short wave perturbation digs southeast of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Peak amplitude may be reached along a positively tilted axis near the Atlantic Seaboard around or after 12Z Wednesday. In association with this regime, expanding cold surface ridging is forecast to encompass much of the interior U.S. into northern Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic seaboard, with its center shifting from the northern Great Plains Red River Valley through the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, in the wake of the short wave. To the west, a lead short wave impulse, within larger scale troughing on the leading edge of a somewhat more progressive regime emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, may reach the British Columbia coast and Pacific Northwest vicinity by late Tuesday night. With its approach, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence to the immediate lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Deep-layered moisture, characterized by high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches, is forecast to generally remain confined to portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near/south of the Florida Keys Tuesday through Tuesday night. While some elevated moisture return is possible across the northwestern Gulf coast into parts of the southern Great Plains, generally stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. One possible exception may persist beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures below -30C) shifting southeast of the upper Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley during the day. Beneath this regime, boundary-layer warming may contribute to diurnal convective development which might become capable of producing occasional lightning. While generally stable conditions persist across much of the West, modest moistening, beneath a remnant pocket of relatively cool air aloft and large-scale ascent across the Four Corners region, might also support scattered weak thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output is not much different from prior runs for this period. Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue to gradually amplify across the eastern U.S., as a significant embedded short wave perturbation digs southeast of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Peak amplitude may be reached along a positively tilted axis near the Atlantic Seaboard around or after 12Z Wednesday. In association with this regime, expanding cold surface ridging is forecast to encompass much of the interior U.S. into northern Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic seaboard, with its center shifting from the northern Great Plains Red River Valley through the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, in the wake of the short wave. To the west, a lead short wave impulse, within larger scale troughing on the leading edge of a somewhat more progressive regime emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, may reach the British Columbia coast and Pacific Northwest vicinity by late Tuesday night. With its approach, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence to the immediate lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Deep-layered moisture, characterized by high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches, is forecast to generally remain confined to portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near/south of the Florida Keys Tuesday through Tuesday night. While some elevated moisture return is possible across the northwestern Gulf coast into parts of the southern Great Plains, generally stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. One possible exception may persist beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures below -30C) shifting southeast of the upper Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley during the day. Beneath this regime, boundary-layer warming may contribute to diurnal convective development which might become capable of producing occasional lightning. While generally stable conditions persist across much of the West, modest moistening, beneath a remnant pocket of relatively cool air aloft and large-scale ascent across the Four Corners region, might also support scattered weak thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output is not much different from prior runs for this period. Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue to gradually amplify across the eastern U.S., as a significant embedded short wave perturbation digs southeast of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Peak amplitude may be reached along a positively tilted axis near the Atlantic Seaboard around or after 12Z Wednesday. In association with this regime, expanding cold surface ridging is forecast to encompass much of the interior U.S. into northern Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic seaboard, with its center shifting from the northern Great Plains Red River Valley through the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, in the wake of the short wave. To the west, a lead short wave impulse, within larger scale troughing on the leading edge of a somewhat more progressive regime emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, may reach the British Columbia coast and Pacific Northwest vicinity by late Tuesday night. With its approach, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence to the immediate lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Deep-layered moisture, characterized by high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches, is forecast to generally remain confined to portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near/south of the Florida Keys Tuesday through Tuesday night. While some elevated moisture return is possible across the northwestern Gulf coast into parts of the southern Great Plains, generally stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. One possible exception may persist beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures below -30C) shifting southeast of the upper Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley during the day. Beneath this regime, boundary-layer warming may contribute to diurnal convective development which might become capable of producing occasional lightning. While generally stable conditions persist across much of the West, modest moistening, beneath a remnant pocket of relatively cool air aloft and large-scale ascent across the Four Corners region, might also support scattered weak thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output is not much different from prior runs for this period. Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue to gradually amplify across the eastern U.S., as a significant embedded short wave perturbation digs southeast of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Peak amplitude may be reached along a positively tilted axis near the Atlantic Seaboard around or after 12Z Wednesday. In association with this regime, expanding cold surface ridging is forecast to encompass much of the interior U.S. into northern Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic seaboard, with its center shifting from the northern Great Plains Red River Valley through the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, in the wake of the short wave. To the west, a lead short wave impulse, within larger scale troughing on the leading edge of a somewhat more progressive regime emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, may reach the British Columbia coast and Pacific Northwest vicinity by late Tuesday night. With its approach, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence to the immediate lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Deep-layered moisture, characterized by high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches, is forecast to generally remain confined to portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near/south of the Florida Keys Tuesday through Tuesday night. While some elevated moisture return is possible across the northwestern Gulf coast into parts of the southern Great Plains, generally stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. One possible exception may persist beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures below -30C) shifting southeast of the upper Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley during the day. Beneath this regime, boundary-layer warming may contribute to diurnal convective development which might become capable of producing occasional lightning. While generally stable conditions persist across much of the West, modest moistening, beneath a remnant pocket of relatively cool air aloft and large-scale ascent across the Four Corners region, might also support scattered weak thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output is not much different from prior runs for this period. Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue to gradually amplify across the eastern U.S., as a significant embedded short wave perturbation digs southeast of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Peak amplitude may be reached along a positively tilted axis near the Atlantic Seaboard around or after 12Z Wednesday. In association with this regime, expanding cold surface ridging is forecast to encompass much of the interior U.S. into northern Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic seaboard, with its center shifting from the northern Great Plains Red River Valley through the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, in the wake of the short wave. To the west, a lead short wave impulse, within larger scale troughing on the leading edge of a somewhat more progressive regime emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, may reach the British Columbia coast and Pacific Northwest vicinity by late Tuesday night. With its approach, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence to the immediate lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Deep-layered moisture, characterized by high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches, is forecast to generally remain confined to portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near/south of the Florida Keys Tuesday through Tuesday night. While some elevated moisture return is possible across the northwestern Gulf coast into parts of the southern Great Plains, generally stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. One possible exception may persist beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures below -30C) shifting southeast of the upper Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley during the day. Beneath this regime, boundary-layer warming may contribute to diurnal convective development which might become capable of producing occasional lightning. While generally stable conditions persist across much of the West, modest moistening, beneath a remnant pocket of relatively cool air aloft and large-scale ascent across the Four Corners region, might also support scattered weak thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery this morning across the southern Great Lakes will strengthen as it accelerates toward the Northeast while the associated mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted. This will likely result in the surface low deepening as it moves up the northeast coast. Some elevated thunderstorms may develop along and behind the surface front/low as it moves northeast across eastern Maine and Cape Cod. Instability should be limited and thus, the severe weather threat should be minimal. Continued cold air advection across the Great Lakes will result in some lake effect convection. Some of this convection may deepen enough to produce lightning, especially during the evening. A few thunderstorms are possible in Utah, northern New Mexico, and western Colorado as an upper-low slowly drifts southeast today. Very weak instability should limit any severe weather potential with this activity. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery this morning across the southern Great Lakes will strengthen as it accelerates toward the Northeast while the associated mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted. This will likely result in the surface low deepening as it moves up the northeast coast. Some elevated thunderstorms may develop along and behind the surface front/low as it moves northeast across eastern Maine and Cape Cod. Instability should be limited and thus, the severe weather threat should be minimal. Continued cold air advection across the Great Lakes will result in some lake effect convection. Some of this convection may deepen enough to produce lightning, especially during the evening. A few thunderstorms are possible in Utah, northern New Mexico, and western Colorado as an upper-low slowly drifts southeast today. Very weak instability should limit any severe weather potential with this activity. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 Read more