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WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern portion of the eastern
Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system will be possible during the next several
days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 8 22:36:15 UTC 2024.

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0615 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 615 TORNADO DC MD NC VA WV CW 082235Z - 091100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Eastern North Carolina Central and eastern Virginia The eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 635 PM until 700 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Convective bands with embedded supercells and the potential for a few tornadoes will persist overnight and spread northward from North Carolina into Virginia/Maryland with the remnants of tropical cyclone Debby. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Martinsburg WV to 35 miles east of Goldsboro NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 614. Watch number 614 will not be in effect after 635 PM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 17035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level longwave trough is expected to amplify over the northwestern CONUS through the period. Various shortwave troughs around the periphery of this longwave trough may provide a focus for fire weather concerns over the weekend through early next week. ...D3/Saturday... A shortwave trough traversing the flow on Saturday may provide lift for thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern Rockies with precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range. Fuels in this region have received relatively little rain recently, and so should be receptive to new ignitions. Therefore, a 10% Isolated Dry Thunder area was added here to reflect the dry lightning risk. Farther west across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada, a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained with low RH and a corridor of strong surface winds. ...D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday... Another shortwave trough embedded in the flow may provide corridors for strong winds in the presence of generally low RH and receptive fuels across much of the Great Basin region Sunday through Tuesday. The highest confidence for this is on D5/Monday, and a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained across portions of eastern Nevada to reflect this. Additional highlights may need to be introduced for Sunday and/or Tuesday in subsequent outlooks if confidence in Elevated or Critical fire conditions increases. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level longwave trough is expected to amplify over the northwestern CONUS through the period. Various shortwave troughs around the periphery of this longwave trough may provide a focus for fire weather concerns over the weekend through early next week. ...D3/Saturday... A shortwave trough traversing the flow on Saturday may provide lift for thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern Rockies with precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range. Fuels in this region have received relatively little rain recently, and so should be receptive to new ignitions. Therefore, a 10% Isolated Dry Thunder area was added here to reflect the dry lightning risk. Farther west across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada, a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained with low RH and a corridor of strong surface winds. ...D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday... Another shortwave trough embedded in the flow may provide corridors for strong winds in the presence of generally low RH and receptive fuels across much of the Great Basin region Sunday through Tuesday. The highest confidence for this is on D5/Monday, and a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained across portions of eastern Nevada to reflect this. Additional highlights may need to be introduced for Sunday and/or Tuesday in subsequent outlooks if confidence in Elevated or Critical fire conditions increases. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level longwave trough is expected to amplify over the northwestern CONUS through the period. Various shortwave troughs around the periphery of this longwave trough may provide a focus for fire weather concerns over the weekend through early next week. ...D3/Saturday... A shortwave trough traversing the flow on Saturday may provide lift for thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern Rockies with precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range. Fuels in this region have received relatively little rain recently, and so should be receptive to new ignitions. Therefore, a 10% Isolated Dry Thunder area was added here to reflect the dry lightning risk. Farther west across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada, a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained with low RH and a corridor of strong surface winds. ...D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday... Another shortwave trough embedded in the flow may provide corridors for strong winds in the presence of generally low RH and receptive fuels across much of the Great Basin region Sunday through Tuesday. The highest confidence for this is on D5/Monday, and a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained across portions of eastern Nevada to reflect this. Additional highlights may need to be introduced for Sunday and/or Tuesday in subsequent outlooks if confidence in Elevated or Critical fire conditions increases. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level longwave trough is expected to amplify over the northwestern CONUS through the period. Various shortwave troughs around the periphery of this longwave trough may provide a focus for fire weather concerns over the weekend through early next week. ...D3/Saturday... A shortwave trough traversing the flow on Saturday may provide lift for thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern Rockies with precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range. Fuels in this region have received relatively little rain recently, and so should be receptive to new ignitions. Therefore, a 10% Isolated Dry Thunder area was added here to reflect the dry lightning risk. Farther west across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada, a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained with low RH and a corridor of strong surface winds. ...D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday... Another shortwave trough embedded in the flow may provide corridors for strong winds in the presence of generally low RH and receptive fuels across much of the Great Basin region Sunday through Tuesday. The highest confidence for this is on D5/Monday, and a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained across portions of eastern Nevada to reflect this. Additional highlights may need to be introduced for Sunday and/or Tuesday in subsequent outlooks if confidence in Elevated or Critical fire conditions increases. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level longwave trough is expected to amplify over the northwestern CONUS through the period. Various shortwave troughs around the periphery of this longwave trough may provide a focus for fire weather concerns over the weekend through early next week. ...D3/Saturday... A shortwave trough traversing the flow on Saturday may provide lift for thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern Rockies with precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range. Fuels in this region have received relatively little rain recently, and so should be receptive to new ignitions. Therefore, a 10% Isolated Dry Thunder area was added here to reflect the dry lightning risk. Farther west across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada, a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained with low RH and a corridor of strong surface winds. ...D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday... Another shortwave trough embedded in the flow may provide corridors for strong winds in the presence of generally low RH and receptive fuels across much of the Great Basin region Sunday through Tuesday. The highest confidence for this is on D5/Monday, and a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained across portions of eastern Nevada to reflect this. Additional highlights may need to be introduced for Sunday and/or Tuesday in subsequent outlooks if confidence in Elevated or Critical fire conditions increases. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more