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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS.... ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS.... ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models suggest that initially consolidated large-scale mid-level troughing, across the Pacific coast through the Rockies at the outset of the period, will become increasingly split while continuing inland. One notable embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue pivoting across and north/northeast of the Canadian Prairies, while a similar trailing perturbation amplifies southeastward, near/east of the Sierra Nevada through southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. It still appears that the primary and secondary surface cyclogenesis will accompany the lead impulse into the higher latitudes of interior Canada. The trailing cold front may surge east of the Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario by late Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great Lakes region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, and the higher terrain of southern Wyoming/northern Colorado into the southern Great Basin. Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians vicinity. This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northern Gulf of Mexico. ...Pacific coast into Great Plains... It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft and the lack of sufficient low-level moisture return will preclude an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into Front Range vicinity. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft probably will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered areas of weak thunderstorm activity from portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models suggest that initially consolidated large-scale mid-level troughing, across the Pacific coast through the Rockies at the outset of the period, will become increasingly split while continuing inland. One notable embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue pivoting across and north/northeast of the Canadian Prairies, while a similar trailing perturbation amplifies southeastward, near/east of the Sierra Nevada through southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. It still appears that the primary and secondary surface cyclogenesis will accompany the lead impulse into the higher latitudes of interior Canada. The trailing cold front may surge east of the Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario by late Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great Lakes region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, and the higher terrain of southern Wyoming/northern Colorado into the southern Great Basin. Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians vicinity. This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northern Gulf of Mexico. ...Pacific coast into Great Plains... It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft and the lack of sufficient low-level moisture return will preclude an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into Front Range vicinity. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft probably will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered areas of weak thunderstorm activity from portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models suggest that initially consolidated large-scale mid-level troughing, across the Pacific coast through the Rockies at the outset of the period, will become increasingly split while continuing inland. One notable embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue pivoting across and north/northeast of the Canadian Prairies, while a similar trailing perturbation amplifies southeastward, near/east of the Sierra Nevada through southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. It still appears that the primary and secondary surface cyclogenesis will accompany the lead impulse into the higher latitudes of interior Canada. The trailing cold front may surge east of the Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario by late Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great Lakes region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, and the higher terrain of southern Wyoming/northern Colorado into the southern Great Basin. Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians vicinity. This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northern Gulf of Mexico. ...Pacific coast into Great Plains... It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft and the lack of sufficient low-level moisture return will preclude an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into Front Range vicinity. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft probably will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered areas of weak thunderstorm activity from portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models suggest that initially consolidated large-scale mid-level troughing, across the Pacific coast through the Rockies at the outset of the period, will become increasingly split while continuing inland. One notable embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue pivoting across and north/northeast of the Canadian Prairies, while a similar trailing perturbation amplifies southeastward, near/east of the Sierra Nevada through southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. It still appears that the primary and secondary surface cyclogenesis will accompany the lead impulse into the higher latitudes of interior Canada. The trailing cold front may surge east of the Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario by late Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great Lakes region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, and the higher terrain of southern Wyoming/northern Colorado into the southern Great Basin. Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians vicinity. This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northern Gulf of Mexico. ...Pacific coast into Great Plains... It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft and the lack of sufficient low-level moisture return will preclude an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into Front Range vicinity. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft probably will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered areas of weak thunderstorm activity from portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

151
ABPZ20 KNHC 150501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

The open burning ban for 44 counties in Ohio was lifted after rainfall and cooler fall temperatures set in. The ban began on Sept. 6. Dayton Daily News (Ohio), Oct 12, 2024 Burn bans have been put in place in Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Fairfield, Fayette, Gallia, Guernsey, Harrison, Highland, Hocking, Jackson, Jefferson, Meigs, Monroe, Morgan, Muskingum, Perry, Pickaway, Pike, Ross, Scioto, Tuscarawas, Vinton and Washington counties in Ohio. 10TV (Columbus, Ohio), Sept. 6, 2024.

After two months of below normal rainfall, a Level 1-Mild Drought was declared in the Central and Northeast Regions of Massachusetts. Additionally, a localized Level 1-Mild Drought was declared in the Boston Harbor Basin (partially in the Northeast and Southeast Regions) and the Hudson Basin (in the northern part of the Western Region). Due to critically low flow conditions, a localized Level-1 Mild Drought declaration remains in the Parker River Basin. Mass.gov (Boston, Mass.), Oct 11, 2024 A localized Level-1 Mild Drought was declared in the Parker River Basin after a review of July conditions including data showing localized critically low flow conditions. All other areas in the Northeast region remain normal. A Level 1-Mild Drought, as outlined in the Massachusetts Drought Management Plan, requires detailed monitoring of drought conditions, close coordination among state and federal agencies, and technical outreach and assistance to the affected municipalities. Mass.gov Energy and Environmental Affairs (Boston), Aug 13, 2024

Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly approved updates to drought declarations for counties as drought persists in the Sunflower State. “While drought conditions have improved in some areas of the state, many counties continue to be negatively impacted by the decline in water supply or strains on water resources,” said Governor Laura Kelly. “I strongly encourage all Kansans to continue to conserve water over the summer months.” The drought declaration recognized four counties as being in emergency status, 35 in warning status, and 66 in watch status. The counties in a drought emergency are Hodgeman, Ness, Pawnee, and Rush. Those in a drought warning are Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Greeley, Hamilton, Harper, Harvey, Haskell, Kearny, Kingman, Kiowa, Lane, McPherson, Meade, Morton, Pratt, Reno, Rice, Russell, Scott, Sedgwick, Seward, Stafford, Stanton, Stevens, Sumner, and Wichita.

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible across the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional thunderstorm development is possible across Deep South Texas and near or south of the Florida Keys. ...Discussion... Models indicate that flow will remain generally progressive across the mid-latitude Pacific into western North America through this period, and large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue developing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains. Within this regime, one significant short wave impulse is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a similar trailing impulse digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region is forecast to become absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, after being forced northeastward. Downstream, developments remain somewhat more unclear near the Atlantic Seaboard, as a mid-level ridge becomes increasing prominent over the subtropical Atlantic. Initially amplified large-scale troughing along a positively tilted axis across the Atlantic Seaboard still appears likely to reach peak amplitude near or just before 12Z Wednesday, but guidance now appears to be trending a bit less progressive with a short wave perturbation emerging from the base of the troughing. It appears that this feature may contribute to the evolution of a modest mid-level low just offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast, while a trailing perturbation digs across the eastern Gulf Coast region. However, associated surface wave development is still forecast to remain along a frontal zone well east of the Mid Atlantic coast. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwestern Texas into New Mexico. ...Florida Keys and Deep South Texas vicinities... While the front over the western Atlantic tends to slowly advance away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, its trailing flank is forecast to stall near or southeast of the Florida Keys, and weaken across the south central Gulf of Mexico through lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along this zone could support moderately large CAPE and widely scattered thunderstorm activity. ...Pacific Northwest into eastern Great Basin/adjacent Rockies... Despite limited moisture availability, mid/upper forcing for ascent, cooling aloft and orography may contribute to scattered weak thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible across the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional thunderstorm development is possible across Deep South Texas and near or south of the Florida Keys. ...Discussion... Models indicate that flow will remain generally progressive across the mid-latitude Pacific into western North America through this period, and large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue developing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains. Within this regime, one significant short wave impulse is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a similar trailing impulse digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region is forecast to become absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, after being forced northeastward. Downstream, developments remain somewhat more unclear near the Atlantic Seaboard, as a mid-level ridge becomes increasing prominent over the subtropical Atlantic. Initially amplified large-scale troughing along a positively tilted axis across the Atlantic Seaboard still appears likely to reach peak amplitude near or just before 12Z Wednesday, but guidance now appears to be trending a bit less progressive with a short wave perturbation emerging from the base of the troughing. It appears that this feature may contribute to the evolution of a modest mid-level low just offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast, while a trailing perturbation digs across the eastern Gulf Coast region. However, associated surface wave development is still forecast to remain along a frontal zone well east of the Mid Atlantic coast. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwestern Texas into New Mexico. ...Florida Keys and Deep South Texas vicinities... While the front over the western Atlantic tends to slowly advance away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, its trailing flank is forecast to stall near or southeast of the Florida Keys, and weaken across the south central Gulf of Mexico through lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along this zone could support moderately large CAPE and widely scattered thunderstorm activity. ...Pacific Northwest into eastern Great Basin/adjacent Rockies... Despite limited moisture availability, mid/upper forcing for ascent, cooling aloft and orography may contribute to scattered weak thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible across the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional thunderstorm development is possible across Deep South Texas and near or south of the Florida Keys. ...Discussion... Models indicate that flow will remain generally progressive across the mid-latitude Pacific into western North America through this period, and large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue developing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains. Within this regime, one significant short wave impulse is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a similar trailing impulse digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region is forecast to become absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, after being forced northeastward. Downstream, developments remain somewhat more unclear near the Atlantic Seaboard, as a mid-level ridge becomes increasing prominent over the subtropical Atlantic. Initially amplified large-scale troughing along a positively tilted axis across the Atlantic Seaboard still appears likely to reach peak amplitude near or just before 12Z Wednesday, but guidance now appears to be trending a bit less progressive with a short wave perturbation emerging from the base of the troughing. It appears that this feature may contribute to the evolution of a modest mid-level low just offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast, while a trailing perturbation digs across the eastern Gulf Coast region. However, associated surface wave development is still forecast to remain along a frontal zone well east of the Mid Atlantic coast. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwestern Texas into New Mexico. ...Florida Keys and Deep South Texas vicinities... While the front over the western Atlantic tends to slowly advance away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, its trailing flank is forecast to stall near or southeast of the Florida Keys, and weaken across the south central Gulf of Mexico through lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along this zone could support moderately large CAPE and widely scattered thunderstorm activity. ...Pacific Northwest into eastern Great Basin/adjacent Rockies... Despite limited moisture availability, mid/upper forcing for ascent, cooling aloft and orography may contribute to scattered weak thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible across the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional thunderstorm development is possible across Deep South Texas and near or south of the Florida Keys. ...Discussion... Models indicate that flow will remain generally progressive across the mid-latitude Pacific into western North America through this period, and large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue developing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains. Within this regime, one significant short wave impulse is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a similar trailing impulse digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region is forecast to become absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, after being forced northeastward. Downstream, developments remain somewhat more unclear near the Atlantic Seaboard, as a mid-level ridge becomes increasing prominent over the subtropical Atlantic. Initially amplified large-scale troughing along a positively tilted axis across the Atlantic Seaboard still appears likely to reach peak amplitude near or just before 12Z Wednesday, but guidance now appears to be trending a bit less progressive with a short wave perturbation emerging from the base of the troughing. It appears that this feature may contribute to the evolution of a modest mid-level low just offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast, while a trailing perturbation digs across the eastern Gulf Coast region. However, associated surface wave development is still forecast to remain along a frontal zone well east of the Mid Atlantic coast. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwestern Texas into New Mexico. ...Florida Keys and Deep South Texas vicinities... While the front over the western Atlantic tends to slowly advance away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, its trailing flank is forecast to stall near or southeast of the Florida Keys, and weaken across the south central Gulf of Mexico through lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along this zone could support moderately large CAPE and widely scattered thunderstorm activity. ...Pacific Northwest into eastern Great Basin/adjacent Rockies... Despite limited moisture availability, mid/upper forcing for ascent, cooling aloft and orography may contribute to scattered weak thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible across the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional thunderstorm development is possible across Deep South Texas and near or south of the Florida Keys. ...Discussion... Models indicate that flow will remain generally progressive across the mid-latitude Pacific into western North America through this period, and large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue developing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains. Within this regime, one significant short wave impulse is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a similar trailing impulse digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region is forecast to become absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, after being forced northeastward. Downstream, developments remain somewhat more unclear near the Atlantic Seaboard, as a mid-level ridge becomes increasing prominent over the subtropical Atlantic. Initially amplified large-scale troughing along a positively tilted axis across the Atlantic Seaboard still appears likely to reach peak amplitude near or just before 12Z Wednesday, but guidance now appears to be trending a bit less progressive with a short wave perturbation emerging from the base of the troughing. It appears that this feature may contribute to the evolution of a modest mid-level low just offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast, while a trailing perturbation digs across the eastern Gulf Coast region. However, associated surface wave development is still forecast to remain along a frontal zone well east of the Mid Atlantic coast. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwestern Texas into New Mexico. ...Florida Keys and Deep South Texas vicinities... While the front over the western Atlantic tends to slowly advance away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, its trailing flank is forecast to stall near or southeast of the Florida Keys, and weaken across the south central Gulf of Mexico through lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along this zone could support moderately large CAPE and widely scattered thunderstorm activity. ...Pacific Northwest into eastern Great Basin/adjacent Rockies... Despite limited moisture availability, mid/upper forcing for ascent, cooling aloft and orography may contribute to scattered weak thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Four Corners States... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon, downstream of a weak mid-level low drifting southeast from the Lower CO Valley across AZ. Weak deep-layer shear will limit severe-storm potential. ...Southern Great Lakes to the central Appalachians... A broad and amplified mid-level trough will pivot southward across the East. A swath of cold 500-mb temperatures around -30 C will accompany this trough, supporting steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. With a shallow tropopause and meager surface-based buoyancy, low-topped showers will abound. The deepest of these should produce sporadic lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon. Weak lower-level winds will preclude organized cells. ...FL to far southeast LA... Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are most probable across the southern tip of the peninsula where low-level moisture will be sufficient for deep convection. Modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates should mitigate a severe risk. Farther north, pockets of low-level convergence along a quasi-stationary front over the northeast Gulf and across the north FL Peninsula may be sufficient for around a 10-percent thunderstorm probability during the late afternoon. This front will accelerate south tonight, but any convection along it should remain offshore. ..Grams/Bentley.. 10/15/2024 Read more