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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a vigorous short wave impulse splitting off the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will continue digging across the southern Great Basin into the Southwest during this period. This appears likely to be accompanied by notable lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/southwest of the Wasatch into the Colorado Plateau to the southwest of the Four Corners by late Friday night, as low-amplitude ridging within the stronger westerlies begins to shift inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained, with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low only slowly continuing to progress offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold surface ridging centered near the Appalachians will maintain a stabilizing influence as far south and west as the northwestern Gulf Coast region. Around the western periphery of this surface ridging, modest moisture return of Gulf origins will gradually return northward from northeastern Mexico into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains... It still appears that moisture return to the vicinity of weakening surface troughing, from the Front Range northeastward into the central Great Plains, may not support more than very weak boundary-layer destabilization with limited convective potential late Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, from the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area southward through the Texas/New Mexico border vicinity, warm layers aloft and weak boundary-destabilization may also tend to minimize the risk for severe storms. In response to modest surface pressure falls to the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains by early Friday evening, increasing low-level moisture return into the eastern slopes of the higher terrain is forecast to contribute to increasing boundary-layer destabilization. Coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft, the environment (including CAPE increasing up to 500 J/kg) may become increasingly conducive to intensifying thunderstorm development by late Friday evening. Shear profiles probably will become supportive of supercell structures with potential to produce marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. The 17/00Z NAM forecast soundings and hodographs around Las Vegas NM, in particular, appear potentially supportive of a tornado around 06Z Friday night. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a vigorous short wave impulse splitting off the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will continue digging across the southern Great Basin into the Southwest during this period. This appears likely to be accompanied by notable lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/southwest of the Wasatch into the Colorado Plateau to the southwest of the Four Corners by late Friday night, as low-amplitude ridging within the stronger westerlies begins to shift inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained, with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low only slowly continuing to progress offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold surface ridging centered near the Appalachians will maintain a stabilizing influence as far south and west as the northwestern Gulf Coast region. Around the western periphery of this surface ridging, modest moisture return of Gulf origins will gradually return northward from northeastern Mexico into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains... It still appears that moisture return to the vicinity of weakening surface troughing, from the Front Range northeastward into the central Great Plains, may not support more than very weak boundary-layer destabilization with limited convective potential late Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, from the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area southward through the Texas/New Mexico border vicinity, warm layers aloft and weak boundary-destabilization may also tend to minimize the risk for severe storms. In response to modest surface pressure falls to the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains by early Friday evening, increasing low-level moisture return into the eastern slopes of the higher terrain is forecast to contribute to increasing boundary-layer destabilization. Coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft, the environment (including CAPE increasing up to 500 J/kg) may become increasingly conducive to intensifying thunderstorm development by late Friday evening. Shear profiles probably will become supportive of supercell structures with potential to produce marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. The 17/00Z NAM forecast soundings and hodographs around Las Vegas NM, in particular, appear potentially supportive of a tornado around 06Z Friday night. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a vigorous short wave impulse splitting off the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will continue digging across the southern Great Basin into the Southwest during this period. This appears likely to be accompanied by notable lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/southwest of the Wasatch into the Colorado Plateau to the southwest of the Four Corners by late Friday night, as low-amplitude ridging within the stronger westerlies begins to shift inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained, with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low only slowly continuing to progress offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold surface ridging centered near the Appalachians will maintain a stabilizing influence as far south and west as the northwestern Gulf Coast region. Around the western periphery of this surface ridging, modest moisture return of Gulf origins will gradually return northward from northeastern Mexico into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains... It still appears that moisture return to the vicinity of weakening surface troughing, from the Front Range northeastward into the central Great Plains, may not support more than very weak boundary-layer destabilization with limited convective potential late Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, from the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area southward through the Texas/New Mexico border vicinity, warm layers aloft and weak boundary-destabilization may also tend to minimize the risk for severe storms. In response to modest surface pressure falls to the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains by early Friday evening, increasing low-level moisture return into the eastern slopes of the higher terrain is forecast to contribute to increasing boundary-layer destabilization. Coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft, the environment (including CAPE increasing up to 500 J/kg) may become increasingly conducive to intensifying thunderstorm development by late Friday evening. Shear profiles probably will become supportive of supercell structures with potential to produce marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. The 17/00Z NAM forecast soundings and hodographs around Las Vegas NM, in particular, appear potentially supportive of a tornado around 06Z Friday night. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a vigorous short wave impulse splitting off the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will continue digging across the southern Great Basin into the Southwest during this period. This appears likely to be accompanied by notable lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/southwest of the Wasatch into the Colorado Plateau to the southwest of the Four Corners by late Friday night, as low-amplitude ridging within the stronger westerlies begins to shift inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained, with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low only slowly continuing to progress offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold surface ridging centered near the Appalachians will maintain a stabilizing influence as far south and west as the northwestern Gulf Coast region. Around the western periphery of this surface ridging, modest moisture return of Gulf origins will gradually return northward from northeastern Mexico into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains... It still appears that moisture return to the vicinity of weakening surface troughing, from the Front Range northeastward into the central Great Plains, may not support more than very weak boundary-layer destabilization with limited convective potential late Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, from the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area southward through the Texas/New Mexico border vicinity, warm layers aloft and weak boundary-destabilization may also tend to minimize the risk for severe storms. In response to modest surface pressure falls to the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains by early Friday evening, increasing low-level moisture return into the eastern slopes of the higher terrain is forecast to contribute to increasing boundary-layer destabilization. Coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft, the environment (including CAPE increasing up to 500 J/kg) may become increasingly conducive to intensifying thunderstorm development by late Friday evening. Shear profiles probably will become supportive of supercell structures with potential to produce marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. The 17/00Z NAM forecast soundings and hodographs around Las Vegas NM, in particular, appear potentially supportive of a tornado around 06Z Friday night. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move eastward into the western Atlantic today, as an upper-level ridge moves across the lower to mid Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes region. An upper-level trough will move across the western U.S., as mid-level flow remains southwesterly over much of the western and central U.S. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West and Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move eastward into the western Atlantic today, as an upper-level ridge moves across the lower to mid Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes region. An upper-level trough will move across the western U.S., as mid-level flow remains southwesterly over much of the western and central U.S. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West and Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move eastward into the western Atlantic today, as an upper-level ridge moves across the lower to mid Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes region. An upper-level trough will move across the western U.S., as mid-level flow remains southwesterly over much of the western and central U.S. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West and Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move eastward into the western Atlantic today, as an upper-level ridge moves across the lower to mid Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes region. An upper-level trough will move across the western U.S., as mid-level flow remains southwesterly over much of the western and central U.S. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West and Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move eastward into the western Atlantic today, as an upper-level ridge moves across the lower to mid Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes region. An upper-level trough will move across the western U.S., as mid-level flow remains southwesterly over much of the western and central U.S. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West and Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 10/17/2024 Read more

774
ABPZ20 KNHC 170503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough near the eastern Seaboard will move slowly eastward tonight, as an upper-level ridge moves gradually eastward through the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight from near and ahead of the trough from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible near the trough in parts of the Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorm development will be likely this evening across far south Texas. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough near the eastern Seaboard will move slowly eastward tonight, as an upper-level ridge moves gradually eastward through the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight from near and ahead of the trough from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible near the trough in parts of the Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorm development will be likely this evening across far south Texas. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 10/17/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... An amplified large-scale trough over the West will evolve into a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region. On the backside of the trough, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA, as the surface pressure gradient tightens. This will result in strong northerly surface winds across portions of the Sacramento/San Joaquin Valleys into the Bay area -- where a relatively warm/dry air mass will be in place. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, the tightening offshore pressure gradient will also favor strong/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern CA. These winds will overlap low RH on for a few hours on Day 3/Friday morning, yielding elevated to locally critical conditions. Ahead of the large-scale trough, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will persist across much of the Great Plains on Day 3/Friday. While low-level moisture return and increasing RH cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat (with limited confidence in critical conditions), elevated conditions cannot be ruled out along the eastern edge of the returning moisture. ..Weinman.. 10/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... An amplified large-scale trough over the West will evolve into a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region. On the backside of the trough, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA, as the surface pressure gradient tightens. This will result in strong northerly surface winds across portions of the Sacramento/San Joaquin Valleys into the Bay area -- where a relatively warm/dry air mass will be in place. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, the tightening offshore pressure gradient will also favor strong/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern CA. These winds will overlap low RH on for a few hours on Day 3/Friday morning, yielding elevated to locally critical conditions. Ahead of the large-scale trough, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will persist across much of the Great Plains on Day 3/Friday. While low-level moisture return and increasing RH cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat (with limited confidence in critical conditions), elevated conditions cannot be ruled out along the eastern edge of the returning moisture. ..Weinman.. 10/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... An amplified large-scale trough over the West will evolve into a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region. On the backside of the trough, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA, as the surface pressure gradient tightens. This will result in strong northerly surface winds across portions of the Sacramento/San Joaquin Valleys into the Bay area -- where a relatively warm/dry air mass will be in place. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, the tightening offshore pressure gradient will also favor strong/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern CA. These winds will overlap low RH on for a few hours on Day 3/Friday morning, yielding elevated to locally critical conditions. Ahead of the large-scale trough, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will persist across much of the Great Plains on Day 3/Friday. While low-level moisture return and increasing RH cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat (with limited confidence in critical conditions), elevated conditions cannot be ruled out along the eastern edge of the returning moisture. ..Weinman.. 10/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... An amplified large-scale trough over the West will evolve into a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region. On the backside of the trough, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA, as the surface pressure gradient tightens. This will result in strong northerly surface winds across portions of the Sacramento/San Joaquin Valleys into the Bay area -- where a relatively warm/dry air mass will be in place. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, the tightening offshore pressure gradient will also favor strong/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern CA. These winds will overlap low RH on for a few hours on Day 3/Friday morning, yielding elevated to locally critical conditions. Ahead of the large-scale trough, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will persist across much of the Great Plains on Day 3/Friday. While low-level moisture return and increasing RH cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat (with limited confidence in critical conditions), elevated conditions cannot be ruled out along the eastern edge of the returning moisture. ..Weinman.. 10/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 16 22:05:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 16 22:05:02 UTC 2024.

Due to drought and little grass in their pastures, cattle producers in Palmyra opted to use stored feed and creep feed to sustain the cattle through the fall before weaning. They began feeding hay, hauling water and supplementing first-calf heifers in August, which was much earlier than usual. DTN – The Progressive Farmer (Minneapolis, Minn.), Oct 16, 2024