Aggregator

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified yet progressive pattern will persist through the period, as a strong, synoptic-scale ridge shifts eastward over the Great Lakes, and the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Upstream, a strong trough now near the coastal Pacific Northwest will dig southeastward across interior parts of the West Coast States today into this evening, and much of the western Great Basin/Intermountain regions overnight. By 12Z, a 500-mb low should form over eastern NV, along a trough extending from the northern Rockies to the lower Colorado River Valley. As that occurs, a weaker, shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery near the NV/UT and CA/AZ borders, should eject northeastward over the central Rockies and central/northern High Plains, while weakening. By the end of the period, broadly cyclonic flow will cover most of the western CONUS. Ahead of the strengthening main (Pacific Northwest) trough, height falls and areas of DCVA/cooling aloft are forecast. Those will overlie a southeastward-surging low-level cold front across the Intermountain region, and support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm potential over a vast swath of the West, either side of the front. Meager but sufficient low/midlevel moisture -- mostly with distant/indirect origins in the subtropical gulfs either side of northern Mexico -- will support this convection. Strong gusts may accompany some of the afternoon and early evening activity along/ahead of the cold front across northern parts of NV/UT, amidst strengthening deep shear. However, overall moisture/buoyancy appear too meager to outline an unconditional severe area at this time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified yet progressive pattern will persist through the period, as a strong, synoptic-scale ridge shifts eastward over the Great Lakes, and the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Upstream, a strong trough now near the coastal Pacific Northwest will dig southeastward across interior parts of the West Coast States today into this evening, and much of the western Great Basin/Intermountain regions overnight. By 12Z, a 500-mb low should form over eastern NV, along a trough extending from the northern Rockies to the lower Colorado River Valley. As that occurs, a weaker, shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery near the NV/UT and CA/AZ borders, should eject northeastward over the central Rockies and central/northern High Plains, while weakening. By the end of the period, broadly cyclonic flow will cover most of the western CONUS. Ahead of the strengthening main (Pacific Northwest) trough, height falls and areas of DCVA/cooling aloft are forecast. Those will overlie a southeastward-surging low-level cold front across the Intermountain region, and support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm potential over a vast swath of the West, either side of the front. Meager but sufficient low/midlevel moisture -- mostly with distant/indirect origins in the subtropical gulfs either side of northern Mexico -- will support this convection. Strong gusts may accompany some of the afternoon and early evening activity along/ahead of the cold front across northern parts of NV/UT, amidst strengthening deep shear. However, overall moisture/buoyancy appear too meager to outline an unconditional severe area at this time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/17/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form during the middle part of next
week well offshore of southwestern Mexico. Thereafter, gradual
development is possible as the system moves westward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An initially evolving mid-level low is still forecast to emerge from the Four Corners vicinity late this weekend, before accelerating east of the southern Rockies and across the remainder of the interior U.S., generally around the northern/northeastern periphery of ridging centered over the subtropics. As this occurs, models indicate similar pattern developments upstream, but over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, with another notable mid-level low evolving to the northwest of 30N/140W early next week, before accelerating toward the U.S. Pacific coast by the end of the period. While there appears at least some risk for a couple of strong storms across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into the lower central Great Plains Sunday into Monday, the lack of a substantive return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is still expected to minimize the overall convective potential. Models indicate that weak surface ridging may linger across the Gulf Coast vicinity through much of the period, impeding the development of a moistening southerly inland return flow and maintaining generally low risk for severe thunderstorm activity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An initially evolving mid-level low is still forecast to emerge from the Four Corners vicinity late this weekend, before accelerating east of the southern Rockies and across the remainder of the interior U.S., generally around the northern/northeastern periphery of ridging centered over the subtropics. As this occurs, models indicate similar pattern developments upstream, but over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, with another notable mid-level low evolving to the northwest of 30N/140W early next week, before accelerating toward the U.S. Pacific coast by the end of the period. While there appears at least some risk for a couple of strong storms across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into the lower central Great Plains Sunday into Monday, the lack of a substantive return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is still expected to minimize the overall convective potential. Models indicate that weak surface ridging may linger across the Gulf Coast vicinity through much of the period, impeding the development of a moistening southerly inland return flow and maintaining generally low risk for severe thunderstorm activity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An initially evolving mid-level low is still forecast to emerge from the Four Corners vicinity late this weekend, before accelerating east of the southern Rockies and across the remainder of the interior U.S., generally around the northern/northeastern periphery of ridging centered over the subtropics. As this occurs, models indicate similar pattern developments upstream, but over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, with another notable mid-level low evolving to the northwest of 30N/140W early next week, before accelerating toward the U.S. Pacific coast by the end of the period. While there appears at least some risk for a couple of strong storms across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into the lower central Great Plains Sunday into Monday, the lack of a substantive return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is still expected to minimize the overall convective potential. Models indicate that weak surface ridging may linger across the Gulf Coast vicinity through much of the period, impeding the development of a moistening southerly inland return flow and maintaining generally low risk for severe thunderstorm activity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An initially evolving mid-level low is still forecast to emerge from the Four Corners vicinity late this weekend, before accelerating east of the southern Rockies and across the remainder of the interior U.S., generally around the northern/northeastern periphery of ridging centered over the subtropics. As this occurs, models indicate similar pattern developments upstream, but over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, with another notable mid-level low evolving to the northwest of 30N/140W early next week, before accelerating toward the U.S. Pacific coast by the end of the period. While there appears at least some risk for a couple of strong storms across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into the lower central Great Plains Sunday into Monday, the lack of a substantive return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is still expected to minimize the overall convective potential. Models indicate that weak surface ridging may linger across the Gulf Coast vicinity through much of the period, impeding the development of a moistening southerly inland return flow and maintaining generally low risk for severe thunderstorm activity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An initially evolving mid-level low is still forecast to emerge from the Four Corners vicinity late this weekend, before accelerating east of the southern Rockies and across the remainder of the interior U.S., generally around the northern/northeastern periphery of ridging centered over the subtropics. As this occurs, models indicate similar pattern developments upstream, but over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, with another notable mid-level low evolving to the northwest of 30N/140W early next week, before accelerating toward the U.S. Pacific coast by the end of the period. While there appears at least some risk for a couple of strong storms across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into the lower central Great Plains Sunday into Monday, the lack of a substantive return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is still expected to minimize the overall convective potential. Models indicate that weak surface ridging may linger across the Gulf Coast vicinity through much of the period, impeding the development of a moistening southerly inland return flow and maintaining generally low risk for severe thunderstorm activity. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will prevail across much of Canada through this period. More amplified, but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes. The latter regime is likely to include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners. Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations pivoting around its periphery. Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle Mississippi Valley. In lower levels, cool surface ridging is forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf Coast. Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow. ...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico, may remain relatively weak on Saturday. This, coupled with further weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly conducive to severe storm development. However, with some additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000 J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing favorable shear profiles for supercells. One short wave perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly after peak destabilization. However, there remains sizable spread within the model output concerning this feature. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will prevail across much of Canada through this period. More amplified, but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes. The latter regime is likely to include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners. Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations pivoting around its periphery. Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle Mississippi Valley. In lower levels, cool surface ridging is forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf Coast. Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow. ...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico, may remain relatively weak on Saturday. This, coupled with further weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly conducive to severe storm development. However, with some additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000 J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing favorable shear profiles for supercells. One short wave perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly after peak destabilization. However, there remains sizable spread within the model output concerning this feature. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will prevail across much of Canada through this period. More amplified, but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes. The latter regime is likely to include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners. Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations pivoting around its periphery. Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle Mississippi Valley. In lower levels, cool surface ridging is forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf Coast. Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow. ...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico, may remain relatively weak on Saturday. This, coupled with further weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly conducive to severe storm development. However, with some additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000 J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing favorable shear profiles for supercells. One short wave perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly after peak destabilization. However, there remains sizable spread within the model output concerning this feature. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will prevail across much of Canada through this period. More amplified, but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes. The latter regime is likely to include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners. Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations pivoting around its periphery. Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle Mississippi Valley. In lower levels, cool surface ridging is forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf Coast. Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow. ...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico, may remain relatively weak on Saturday. This, coupled with further weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly conducive to severe storm development. However, with some additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000 J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing favorable shear profiles for supercells. One short wave perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly after peak destabilization. However, there remains sizable spread within the model output concerning this feature. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... As a surface low settles into the Southwest, strong southerly flow will continue across the Central and Southern Plains. This low-level flow will advect moisture northward which will eliminate most of the fire weather concern across the Plains. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest as a compact upper-level cyclone slides east-southeast. Sustained winds of 30+ mph are likely beneath the strongest mid-level flow. Fuels across Arizona and New Mexico are not critically dry and therefore, no fire weather concerns have been highlighted at this time. However, dry fuels are present across California where some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely within the Central Valley, Coastal Ranges of the central and northern portions of the state, and in terrain favored areas of southern California. In addition to the strong winds Friday afternoon, the Santa Ana winds will likely strengthen again 06-12Z Saturday. This will occur as the LAX-TPH gradient strengthens to near 10-12 mb as diurnal cooling, and high pressure in the Great Basin strengthens the pressure gradient across southern California. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... As a surface low settles into the Southwest, strong southerly flow will continue across the Central and Southern Plains. This low-level flow will advect moisture northward which will eliminate most of the fire weather concern across the Plains. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest as a compact upper-level cyclone slides east-southeast. Sustained winds of 30+ mph are likely beneath the strongest mid-level flow. Fuels across Arizona and New Mexico are not critically dry and therefore, no fire weather concerns have been highlighted at this time. However, dry fuels are present across California where some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely within the Central Valley, Coastal Ranges of the central and northern portions of the state, and in terrain favored areas of southern California. In addition to the strong winds Friday afternoon, the Santa Ana winds will likely strengthen again 06-12Z Saturday. This will occur as the LAX-TPH gradient strengthens to near 10-12 mb as diurnal cooling, and high pressure in the Great Basin strengthens the pressure gradient across southern California. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... As a surface low settles into the Southwest, strong southerly flow will continue across the Central and Southern Plains. This low-level flow will advect moisture northward which will eliminate most of the fire weather concern across the Plains. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest as a compact upper-level cyclone slides east-southeast. Sustained winds of 30+ mph are likely beneath the strongest mid-level flow. Fuels across Arizona and New Mexico are not critically dry and therefore, no fire weather concerns have been highlighted at this time. However, dry fuels are present across California where some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely within the Central Valley, Coastal Ranges of the central and northern portions of the state, and in terrain favored areas of southern California. In addition to the strong winds Friday afternoon, the Santa Ana winds will likely strengthen again 06-12Z Saturday. This will occur as the LAX-TPH gradient strengthens to near 10-12 mb as diurnal cooling, and high pressure in the Great Basin strengthens the pressure gradient across southern California. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... As a surface low settles into the Southwest, strong southerly flow will continue across the Central and Southern Plains. This low-level flow will advect moisture northward which will eliminate most of the fire weather concern across the Plains. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest as a compact upper-level cyclone slides east-southeast. Sustained winds of 30+ mph are likely beneath the strongest mid-level flow. Fuels across Arizona and New Mexico are not critically dry and therefore, no fire weather concerns have been highlighted at this time. However, dry fuels are present across California where some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely within the Central Valley, Coastal Ranges of the central and northern portions of the state, and in terrain favored areas of southern California. In addition to the strong winds Friday afternoon, the Santa Ana winds will likely strengthen again 06-12Z Saturday. This will occur as the LAX-TPH gradient strengthens to near 10-12 mb as diurnal cooling, and high pressure in the Great Basin strengthens the pressure gradient across southern California. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more