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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Southwest into the Southern High Plains... An upper low will develop within the base of a western trough on Friday. This system will progress across the Southwest toward the Four Corners/southern Rockies vicinity by Saturday morning. As this occurs, moderate mid/upper south/southwesterly flow (40-60 kt at 500 mb) will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, modest boundary layer moisture will spread across southern AZ on southerly low-level flow ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates within the developing mid/upper low may provide weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Further east, southeasterly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northwest across western Texas into eastern New Mexico along a surface trough/dryline. As the upper low/trough approaches during the afternoon into the evening, steepening midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the mid 50s F will support up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles with around 40 kt effective shear magnitudes suggest isolated supercells will be possible with initial convection during the evening. More linear development may occur with time (toward 06z) as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Strong gusts, marginal hail and a tornado or two will be possible with this activity. ..Leitman.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Southwest into the Southern High Plains... An upper low will develop within the base of a western trough on Friday. This system will progress across the Southwest toward the Four Corners/southern Rockies vicinity by Saturday morning. As this occurs, moderate mid/upper south/southwesterly flow (40-60 kt at 500 mb) will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, modest boundary layer moisture will spread across southern AZ on southerly low-level flow ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates within the developing mid/upper low may provide weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Further east, southeasterly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northwest across western Texas into eastern New Mexico along a surface trough/dryline. As the upper low/trough approaches during the afternoon into the evening, steepening midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the mid 50s F will support up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles with around 40 kt effective shear magnitudes suggest isolated supercells will be possible with initial convection during the evening. More linear development may occur with time (toward 06z) as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Strong gusts, marginal hail and a tornado or two will be possible with this activity. ..Leitman.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and eastward over northern KS, far northwest MO, and western IA. Morning surface observations already show RH falling into the middle/upper 20s over these areas, which combined with the strong sustained winds and dry fuels, will favor critical conditions through the afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and eastward over northern KS, far northwest MO, and western IA. Morning surface observations already show RH falling into the middle/upper 20s over these areas, which combined with the strong sustained winds and dry fuels, will favor critical conditions through the afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and eastward over northern KS, far northwest MO, and western IA. Morning surface observations already show RH falling into the middle/upper 20s over these areas, which combined with the strong sustained winds and dry fuels, will favor critical conditions through the afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and eastward over northern KS, far northwest MO, and western IA. Morning surface observations already show RH falling into the middle/upper 20s over these areas, which combined with the strong sustained winds and dry fuels, will favor critical conditions through the afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and eastward over northern KS, far northwest MO, and western IA. Morning surface observations already show RH falling into the middle/upper 20s over these areas, which combined with the strong sustained winds and dry fuels, will favor critical conditions through the afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and eastward over northern KS, far northwest MO, and western IA. Morning surface observations already show RH falling into the middle/upper 20s over these areas, which combined with the strong sustained winds and dry fuels, will favor critical conditions through the afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and eastward over northern KS, far northwest MO, and western IA. Morning surface observations already show RH falling into the middle/upper 20s over these areas, which combined with the strong sustained winds and dry fuels, will favor critical conditions through the afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Western States... A large upper trough will dig southeastward across the mountainous west today and tonight. This will provide increasing large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread high clouds over much of this area, which should limit daytime heating and destabilization. Strengthening winds aloft could pose a risk for gusty winds in the strongest cells this afternoon, but the risk of severe storms appears low. ..Hart/Grams.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Western States... A large upper trough will dig southeastward across the mountainous west today and tonight. This will provide increasing large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread high clouds over much of this area, which should limit daytime heating and destabilization. Strengthening winds aloft could pose a risk for gusty winds in the strongest cells this afternoon, but the risk of severe storms appears low. ..Hart/Grams.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Western States... A large upper trough will dig southeastward across the mountainous west today and tonight. This will provide increasing large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread high clouds over much of this area, which should limit daytime heating and destabilization. Strengthening winds aloft could pose a risk for gusty winds in the strongest cells this afternoon, but the risk of severe storms appears low. ..Hart/Grams.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Western States... A large upper trough will dig southeastward across the mountainous west today and tonight. This will provide increasing large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread high clouds over much of this area, which should limit daytime heating and destabilization. Strengthening winds aloft could pose a risk for gusty winds in the strongest cells this afternoon, but the risk of severe storms appears low. ..Hart/Grams.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Western States... A large upper trough will dig southeastward across the mountainous west today and tonight. This will provide increasing large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread high clouds over much of this area, which should limit daytime heating and destabilization. Strengthening winds aloft could pose a risk for gusty winds in the strongest cells this afternoon, but the risk of severe storms appears low. ..Hart/Grams.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Western States... A large upper trough will dig southeastward across the mountainous west today and tonight. This will provide increasing large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread high clouds over much of this area, which should limit daytime heating and destabilization. Strengthening winds aloft could pose a risk for gusty winds in the strongest cells this afternoon, but the risk of severe storms appears low. ..Hart/Grams.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Western States... A large upper trough will dig southeastward across the mountainous west today and tonight. This will provide increasing large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread high clouds over much of this area, which should limit daytime heating and destabilization. Strengthening winds aloft could pose a risk for gusty winds in the strongest cells this afternoon, but the risk of severe storms appears low. ..Hart/Grams.. 10/17/2024 Read more

Drought in Texas stressed the corn and sorghum, but allowed harvests to begin earlier than normal, which generally is not a good sign, according to an AgriLife Extension economist for grain marketing. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 1, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified yet progressive pattern will persist through the period, as a strong, synoptic-scale ridge shifts eastward over the Great Lakes, and the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Upstream, a strong trough now near the coastal Pacific Northwest will dig southeastward across interior parts of the West Coast States today into this evening, and much of the western Great Basin/Intermountain regions overnight. By 12Z, a 500-mb low should form over eastern NV, along a trough extending from the northern Rockies to the lower Colorado River Valley. As that occurs, a weaker, shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery near the NV/UT and CA/AZ borders, should eject northeastward over the central Rockies and central/northern High Plains, while weakening. By the end of the period, broadly cyclonic flow will cover most of the western CONUS. Ahead of the strengthening main (Pacific Northwest) trough, height falls and areas of DCVA/cooling aloft are forecast. Those will overlie a southeastward-surging low-level cold front across the Intermountain region, and support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm potential over a vast swath of the West, either side of the front. Meager but sufficient low/midlevel moisture -- mostly with distant/indirect origins in the subtropical gulfs either side of northern Mexico -- will support this convection. Strong gusts may accompany some of the afternoon and early evening activity along/ahead of the cold front across northern parts of NV/UT, amidst strengthening deep shear. However, overall moisture/buoyancy appear too meager to outline an unconditional severe area at this time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified yet progressive pattern will persist through the period, as a strong, synoptic-scale ridge shifts eastward over the Great Lakes, and the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Upstream, a strong trough now near the coastal Pacific Northwest will dig southeastward across interior parts of the West Coast States today into this evening, and much of the western Great Basin/Intermountain regions overnight. By 12Z, a 500-mb low should form over eastern NV, along a trough extending from the northern Rockies to the lower Colorado River Valley. As that occurs, a weaker, shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery near the NV/UT and CA/AZ borders, should eject northeastward over the central Rockies and central/northern High Plains, while weakening. By the end of the period, broadly cyclonic flow will cover most of the western CONUS. Ahead of the strengthening main (Pacific Northwest) trough, height falls and areas of DCVA/cooling aloft are forecast. Those will overlie a southeastward-surging low-level cold front across the Intermountain region, and support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm potential over a vast swath of the West, either side of the front. Meager but sufficient low/midlevel moisture -- mostly with distant/indirect origins in the subtropical gulfs either side of northern Mexico -- will support this convection. Strong gusts may accompany some of the afternoon and early evening activity along/ahead of the cold front across northern parts of NV/UT, amidst strengthening deep shear. However, overall moisture/buoyancy appear too meager to outline an unconditional severe area at this time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified yet progressive pattern will persist through the period, as a strong, synoptic-scale ridge shifts eastward over the Great Lakes, and the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Upstream, a strong trough now near the coastal Pacific Northwest will dig southeastward across interior parts of the West Coast States today into this evening, and much of the western Great Basin/Intermountain regions overnight. By 12Z, a 500-mb low should form over eastern NV, along a trough extending from the northern Rockies to the lower Colorado River Valley. As that occurs, a weaker, shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery near the NV/UT and CA/AZ borders, should eject northeastward over the central Rockies and central/northern High Plains, while weakening. By the end of the period, broadly cyclonic flow will cover most of the western CONUS. Ahead of the strengthening main (Pacific Northwest) trough, height falls and areas of DCVA/cooling aloft are forecast. Those will overlie a southeastward-surging low-level cold front across the Intermountain region, and support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm potential over a vast swath of the West, either side of the front. Meager but sufficient low/midlevel moisture -- mostly with distant/indirect origins in the subtropical gulfs either side of northern Mexico -- will support this convection. Strong gusts may accompany some of the afternoon and early evening activity along/ahead of the cold front across northern parts of NV/UT, amidst strengthening deep shear. However, overall moisture/buoyancy appear too meager to outline an unconditional severe area at this time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/17/2024 Read more