Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For this coming Monday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central Plains. Models indicate that a narrow, and increasingly limited, band of moisture will be present ahead of the trough and associated surface front. Though thunderstorms are possible in parts of eastern Kansas with this activity, severe weather potential appears low at this time. As the central Plains trough moves east, it is expected to lose amplitude and eventually phase with a stronger, broader upper trough moving through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley region around the middle of next week. While models begin to diverge on the upper-level pattern at that time, the general consensus is for a cold font to push into parts of the southern Plains as well as to near the Gulf Coast and off the Atlantic Coast. With moisture ahead of the front still looking limited, severe thunderstorms do not appear probable along the boundary. Thereafter, surface ridging in the eastern third of the CONUS, along with another upper ridge over the Divide, will keep severe weather potential low through at least the end of next week and possibly into next weekend. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A stronger storm or two is possible in parts of the southern High Plains, though severe weather potential continues to appear low. ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper low will be in the process of becoming an open wave Sunday morning. The trough will eventually accelerate eastward by Monday morning, but is not expected to eject into the southern High Plains until mid/late evening Sunday. Continued surface troughing into the southern High Plains will keep very modest moisture influx into the region around the Ohio Valley anticyclone. The Pacific front in New Mexico/Colorado will slowly move eastward along with the upper trough. ...Northeast New Mexico into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Vicinity... A narrow band of moisture will persist within the region on account of the southeasterly surface winds. Cloud cover and some potential for early-day precipitation is expected to keep temperatures rather cool. The strongest forcing for ascent is not likely to arrive until mid/late evening into the overnight. Temperatures aloft will be cold enough to promote 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and deep-layer shear could support some modest storm organization. Given the late timing of the mid-level height falls and the cold front, potential for severe weather appears low. Isolated strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail are possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A stronger storm or two is possible in parts of the southern High Plains, though severe weather potential continues to appear low. ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper low will be in the process of becoming an open wave Sunday morning. The trough will eventually accelerate eastward by Monday morning, but is not expected to eject into the southern High Plains until mid/late evening Sunday. Continued surface troughing into the southern High Plains will keep very modest moisture influx into the region around the Ohio Valley anticyclone. The Pacific front in New Mexico/Colorado will slowly move eastward along with the upper trough. ...Northeast New Mexico into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Vicinity... A narrow band of moisture will persist within the region on account of the southeasterly surface winds. Cloud cover and some potential for early-day precipitation is expected to keep temperatures rather cool. The strongest forcing for ascent is not likely to arrive until mid/late evening into the overnight. Temperatures aloft will be cold enough to promote 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and deep-layer shear could support some modest storm organization. Given the late timing of the mid-level height falls and the cold front, potential for severe weather appears low. Isolated strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail are possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A stronger storm or two is possible in parts of the southern High Plains, though severe weather potential continues to appear low. ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper low will be in the process of becoming an open wave Sunday morning. The trough will eventually accelerate eastward by Monday morning, but is not expected to eject into the southern High Plains until mid/late evening Sunday. Continued surface troughing into the southern High Plains will keep very modest moisture influx into the region around the Ohio Valley anticyclone. The Pacific front in New Mexico/Colorado will slowly move eastward along with the upper trough. ...Northeast New Mexico into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Vicinity... A narrow band of moisture will persist within the region on account of the southeasterly surface winds. Cloud cover and some potential for early-day precipitation is expected to keep temperatures rather cool. The strongest forcing for ascent is not likely to arrive until mid/late evening into the overnight. Temperatures aloft will be cold enough to promote 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and deep-layer shear could support some modest storm organization. Given the late timing of the mid-level height falls and the cold front, potential for severe weather appears low. Isolated strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail are possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A stronger storm or two is possible in parts of the southern High Plains, though severe weather potential continues to appear low. ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper low will be in the process of becoming an open wave Sunday morning. The trough will eventually accelerate eastward by Monday morning, but is not expected to eject into the southern High Plains until mid/late evening Sunday. Continued surface troughing into the southern High Plains will keep very modest moisture influx into the region around the Ohio Valley anticyclone. The Pacific front in New Mexico/Colorado will slowly move eastward along with the upper trough. ...Northeast New Mexico into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Vicinity... A narrow band of moisture will persist within the region on account of the southeasterly surface winds. Cloud cover and some potential for early-day precipitation is expected to keep temperatures rather cool. The strongest forcing for ascent is not likely to arrive until mid/late evening into the overnight. Temperatures aloft will be cold enough to promote 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and deep-layer shear could support some modest storm organization. Given the late timing of the mid-level height falls and the cold front, potential for severe weather appears low. Isolated strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail are possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ..Moore.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ..Moore.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ..Moore.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ..Moore.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the lower Colorado River Valley will become a closed low in the Southwest and become nearly stationary just south of the Four Corners on Saturday. Mid-level winds associated with this feature are expected to weaken some as compared to Friday, though some intensification may occur as the trough becomes more progressive by early Sunday morning. At the surface, modest return flow of generally poor-quality low-level moisture will continue into the southern High Plains as a surface trough is maintained from eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. Nebulous ascent from the upper-level low as well as low-level warm advection should promote some showers/thunderstorms early in the period, especially in New Mexico. ...Central/eastern New Mexico into western Texas... Southeasterly return flow around the surface high in the Ohio Valley will maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints in the southern High Plains. Forcing from the upper low and a Pacific cold front will promote late-afternoon thunderstorm development from central to eastern New Mexico. Ongoing precipitation early in the period gives some uncertainty as to how much surface-based destabilization will occur. MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg appears possible where greater heating occurs with closer to 500 J/kg elsewhere. However, there appears a slightly more favorable zone for heating from the Davis Mountains into east-central New Mexico. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells, and mid-level lapse rates will remain steep enough to support some threat for large hail even if some storms remain slightly elevated. Isolated strong to severe gusts could occur with the most organized supercells. Low-level shear will increase after 00Z, but a simultaneous increase in low-level stability is also expected. Even so, a narrow window exists for a tornado or two should a mature supercell persist into the early evening. Given a slightly slower eastward progression of the upper low in recent guidance, a small westward shift in severe probabilities was made. Some guidance shows convection developing within the Davis Mountains. Given the weak synoptic lift and potential for low-level clouds and stable conditions to the east, it is not clear if storms will develop or for how long they can persist eastward into marginally greater moisture. A conditional threat for severe hail would exist if a storm or two can develop and mature in the Trans-Pecos region. ..Wendt.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the lower Colorado River Valley will become a closed low in the Southwest and become nearly stationary just south of the Four Corners on Saturday. Mid-level winds associated with this feature are expected to weaken some as compared to Friday, though some intensification may occur as the trough becomes more progressive by early Sunday morning. At the surface, modest return flow of generally poor-quality low-level moisture will continue into the southern High Plains as a surface trough is maintained from eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. Nebulous ascent from the upper-level low as well as low-level warm advection should promote some showers/thunderstorms early in the period, especially in New Mexico. ...Central/eastern New Mexico into western Texas... Southeasterly return flow around the surface high in the Ohio Valley will maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints in the southern High Plains. Forcing from the upper low and a Pacific cold front will promote late-afternoon thunderstorm development from central to eastern New Mexico. Ongoing precipitation early in the period gives some uncertainty as to how much surface-based destabilization will occur. MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg appears possible where greater heating occurs with closer to 500 J/kg elsewhere. However, there appears a slightly more favorable zone for heating from the Davis Mountains into east-central New Mexico. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells, and mid-level lapse rates will remain steep enough to support some threat for large hail even if some storms remain slightly elevated. Isolated strong to severe gusts could occur with the most organized supercells. Low-level shear will increase after 00Z, but a simultaneous increase in low-level stability is also expected. Even so, a narrow window exists for a tornado or two should a mature supercell persist into the early evening. Given a slightly slower eastward progression of the upper low in recent guidance, a small westward shift in severe probabilities was made. Some guidance shows convection developing within the Davis Mountains. Given the weak synoptic lift and potential for low-level clouds and stable conditions to the east, it is not clear if storms will develop or for how long they can persist eastward into marginally greater moisture. A conditional threat for severe hail would exist if a storm or two can develop and mature in the Trans-Pecos region. ..Wendt.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the lower Colorado River Valley will become a closed low in the Southwest and become nearly stationary just south of the Four Corners on Saturday. Mid-level winds associated with this feature are expected to weaken some as compared to Friday, though some intensification may occur as the trough becomes more progressive by early Sunday morning. At the surface, modest return flow of generally poor-quality low-level moisture will continue into the southern High Plains as a surface trough is maintained from eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. Nebulous ascent from the upper-level low as well as low-level warm advection should promote some showers/thunderstorms early in the period, especially in New Mexico. ...Central/eastern New Mexico into western Texas... Southeasterly return flow around the surface high in the Ohio Valley will maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints in the southern High Plains. Forcing from the upper low and a Pacific cold front will promote late-afternoon thunderstorm development from central to eastern New Mexico. Ongoing precipitation early in the period gives some uncertainty as to how much surface-based destabilization will occur. MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg appears possible where greater heating occurs with closer to 500 J/kg elsewhere. However, there appears a slightly more favorable zone for heating from the Davis Mountains into east-central New Mexico. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells, and mid-level lapse rates will remain steep enough to support some threat for large hail even if some storms remain slightly elevated. Isolated strong to severe gusts could occur with the most organized supercells. Low-level shear will increase after 00Z, but a simultaneous increase in low-level stability is also expected. Even so, a narrow window exists for a tornado or two should a mature supercell persist into the early evening. Given a slightly slower eastward progression of the upper low in recent guidance, a small westward shift in severe probabilities was made. Some guidance shows convection developing within the Davis Mountains. Given the weak synoptic lift and potential for low-level clouds and stable conditions to the east, it is not clear if storms will develop or for how long they can persist eastward into marginally greater moisture. A conditional threat for severe hail would exist if a storm or two can develop and mature in the Trans-Pecos region. ..Wendt.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the lower Colorado River Valley will become a closed low in the Southwest and become nearly stationary just south of the Four Corners on Saturday. Mid-level winds associated with this feature are expected to weaken some as compared to Friday, though some intensification may occur as the trough becomes more progressive by early Sunday morning. At the surface, modest return flow of generally poor-quality low-level moisture will continue into the southern High Plains as a surface trough is maintained from eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. Nebulous ascent from the upper-level low as well as low-level warm advection should promote some showers/thunderstorms early in the period, especially in New Mexico. ...Central/eastern New Mexico into western Texas... Southeasterly return flow around the surface high in the Ohio Valley will maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints in the southern High Plains. Forcing from the upper low and a Pacific cold front will promote late-afternoon thunderstorm development from central to eastern New Mexico. Ongoing precipitation early in the period gives some uncertainty as to how much surface-based destabilization will occur. MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg appears possible where greater heating occurs with closer to 500 J/kg elsewhere. However, there appears a slightly more favorable zone for heating from the Davis Mountains into east-central New Mexico. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells, and mid-level lapse rates will remain steep enough to support some threat for large hail even if some storms remain slightly elevated. Isolated strong to severe gusts could occur with the most organized supercells. Low-level shear will increase after 00Z, but a simultaneous increase in low-level stability is also expected. Even so, a narrow window exists for a tornado or two should a mature supercell persist into the early evening. Given a slightly slower eastward progression of the upper low in recent guidance, a small westward shift in severe probabilities was made. Some guidance shows convection developing within the Davis Mountains. Given the weak synoptic lift and potential for low-level clouds and stable conditions to the east, it is not clear if storms will develop or for how long they can persist eastward into marginally greater moisture. A conditional threat for severe hail would exist if a storm or two can develop and mature in the Trans-Pecos region. ..Wendt.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the lower Colorado River Valley will become a closed low in the Southwest and become nearly stationary just south of the Four Corners on Saturday. Mid-level winds associated with this feature are expected to weaken some as compared to Friday, though some intensification may occur as the trough becomes more progressive by early Sunday morning. At the surface, modest return flow of generally poor-quality low-level moisture will continue into the southern High Plains as a surface trough is maintained from eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. Nebulous ascent from the upper-level low as well as low-level warm advection should promote some showers/thunderstorms early in the period, especially in New Mexico. ...Central/eastern New Mexico into western Texas... Southeasterly return flow around the surface high in the Ohio Valley will maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints in the southern High Plains. Forcing from the upper low and a Pacific cold front will promote late-afternoon thunderstorm development from central to eastern New Mexico. Ongoing precipitation early in the period gives some uncertainty as to how much surface-based destabilization will occur. MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg appears possible where greater heating occurs with closer to 500 J/kg elsewhere. However, there appears a slightly more favorable zone for heating from the Davis Mountains into east-central New Mexico. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells, and mid-level lapse rates will remain steep enough to support some threat for large hail even if some storms remain slightly elevated. Isolated strong to severe gusts could occur with the most organized supercells. Low-level shear will increase after 00Z, but a simultaneous increase in low-level stability is also expected. Even so, a narrow window exists for a tornado or two should a mature supercell persist into the early evening. Given a slightly slower eastward progression of the upper low in recent guidance, a small westward shift in severe probabilities was made. Some guidance shows convection developing within the Davis Mountains. Given the weak synoptic lift and potential for low-level clouds and stable conditions to the east, it is not clear if storms will develop or for how long they can persist eastward into marginally greater moisture. A conditional threat for severe hail would exist if a storm or two can develop and mature in the Trans-Pecos region. ..Wendt.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon into the overnight hours along portions of the southern California coast. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the western slopes of the Sacramento Valley in northern California. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southeast across the Great Basin and central/southern CA. Strong northerly low to mid-level winds are anticipated behind this front by mid-morning across the southern CA ranges, which should induce an offshore flow regime. An influx of drier air combined with downslope warming/drying will promote areas of RH reductions to 10-20% in the lee of the coastal ranges. Latest guidance suggests elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable in the lee of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino ranges with winds gusting up to 40-50 mph possible. These conditions are expected to linger into the overnight hours as a surface high builds to the north across the Great Basin and reinforces the offshore pressure-gradient flow. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated further east across the Mojave Desert into the Sonoran Desert in southwest AZ, but limited fuel availability and/or receptiveness should limit fire concerns. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, dewpoints have fallen by around 20 F over the past 12-18 hours in the wake of the surface front. This drier air, combined with diurnal heating/mixing, will promote 15-25% RH minimums this afternoon as breezy post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph persist through the day. ..Moore.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon into the overnight hours along portions of the southern California coast. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the western slopes of the Sacramento Valley in northern California. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southeast across the Great Basin and central/southern CA. Strong northerly low to mid-level winds are anticipated behind this front by mid-morning across the southern CA ranges, which should induce an offshore flow regime. An influx of drier air combined with downslope warming/drying will promote areas of RH reductions to 10-20% in the lee of the coastal ranges. Latest guidance suggests elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable in the lee of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino ranges with winds gusting up to 40-50 mph possible. These conditions are expected to linger into the overnight hours as a surface high builds to the north across the Great Basin and reinforces the offshore pressure-gradient flow. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated further east across the Mojave Desert into the Sonoran Desert in southwest AZ, but limited fuel availability and/or receptiveness should limit fire concerns. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, dewpoints have fallen by around 20 F over the past 12-18 hours in the wake of the surface front. This drier air, combined with diurnal heating/mixing, will promote 15-25% RH minimums this afternoon as breezy post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph persist through the day. ..Moore.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon into the overnight hours along portions of the southern California coast. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the western slopes of the Sacramento Valley in northern California. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southeast across the Great Basin and central/southern CA. Strong northerly low to mid-level winds are anticipated behind this front by mid-morning across the southern CA ranges, which should induce an offshore flow regime. An influx of drier air combined with downslope warming/drying will promote areas of RH reductions to 10-20% in the lee of the coastal ranges. Latest guidance suggests elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable in the lee of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino ranges with winds gusting up to 40-50 mph possible. These conditions are expected to linger into the overnight hours as a surface high builds to the north across the Great Basin and reinforces the offshore pressure-gradient flow. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated further east across the Mojave Desert into the Sonoran Desert in southwest AZ, but limited fuel availability and/or receptiveness should limit fire concerns. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, dewpoints have fallen by around 20 F over the past 12-18 hours in the wake of the surface front. This drier air, combined with diurnal heating/mixing, will promote 15-25% RH minimums this afternoon as breezy post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph persist through the day. ..Moore.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon into the overnight hours along portions of the southern California coast. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the western slopes of the Sacramento Valley in northern California. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southeast across the Great Basin and central/southern CA. Strong northerly low to mid-level winds are anticipated behind this front by mid-morning across the southern CA ranges, which should induce an offshore flow regime. An influx of drier air combined with downslope warming/drying will promote areas of RH reductions to 10-20% in the lee of the coastal ranges. Latest guidance suggests elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable in the lee of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino ranges with winds gusting up to 40-50 mph possible. These conditions are expected to linger into the overnight hours as a surface high builds to the north across the Great Basin and reinforces the offshore pressure-gradient flow. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated further east across the Mojave Desert into the Sonoran Desert in southwest AZ, but limited fuel availability and/or receptiveness should limit fire concerns. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, dewpoints have fallen by around 20 F over the past 12-18 hours in the wake of the surface front. This drier air, combined with diurnal heating/mixing, will promote 15-25% RH minimums this afternoon as breezy post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph persist through the day. ..Moore.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon into the overnight hours along portions of the southern California coast. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the western slopes of the Sacramento Valley in northern California. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southeast across the Great Basin and central/southern CA. Strong northerly low to mid-level winds are anticipated behind this front by mid-morning across the southern CA ranges, which should induce an offshore flow regime. An influx of drier air combined with downslope warming/drying will promote areas of RH reductions to 10-20% in the lee of the coastal ranges. Latest guidance suggests elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable in the lee of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino ranges with winds gusting up to 40-50 mph possible. These conditions are expected to linger into the overnight hours as a surface high builds to the north across the Great Basin and reinforces the offshore pressure-gradient flow. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated further east across the Mojave Desert into the Sonoran Desert in southwest AZ, but limited fuel availability and/or receptiveness should limit fire concerns. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, dewpoints have fallen by around 20 F over the past 12-18 hours in the wake of the surface front. This drier air, combined with diurnal heating/mixing, will promote 15-25% RH minimums this afternoon as breezy post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph persist through the day. ..Moore.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a threat for hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Rockies eastward into the southern High Plains. ...Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains... An upper-level low will move southeastward across the Desert Southwest today, as warm advection takes place ahead of the system over the southern Plains. Low-level moisture will increase across eastern New Mexico and west Texas as a low-level jet remains in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of instability will develop across eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Saturday have 0-6km shear in the 40 to 45 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail and a few severe gusts. RAP forecast soundings in northeastern New Mexico also have gradually veering winds with height below 700 mb and some speed shear in the lowest 1 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity from 250 to 300 m2/s2. This may be enough for one or two tornadoes with any discrete supercell that can persist into the early evening, when the low-level jet will be stronger. An isolated severe threat may also develop as a line of storms moves across parts of the southern High Plains during the mid to late evening. ..Broyles/Moore.. 10/18/2024 Read more