Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor modifications to the Thunder area over the West. Thunder chances should steadily decrease this afternoon/evening as a deep upper cyclone and a surface cold front translate southeast with the arrival of a colder and more stable air mass. ...Four Corners... Across portions of the Four Corners, a band of low-topped convection has shown occasional stronger embedded features across parts of northern AZ and far southwestern CO. A few of these storms could slowly intensify through the afternoon ahead of the upper low and cold front. While buoyancy is marginal (generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear could support a risk for transient rotating/organized storms capable of locally strong gusts or a brief tornado from northern AZ, into parts of northern NM and far southwest CO. The risk should begin to wane early this evening as the cold front shifts eastward and the already limited buoyancy is dissipated. ...Southern High Plains/Rockies... Initially isolated to widely scattered storms, including a few supercell structures, still appear likely this afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of the southern High Plains and Rockies. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado. The Marginal Risk area remains unchanged, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor modifications to the Thunder area over the West. Thunder chances should steadily decrease this afternoon/evening as a deep upper cyclone and a surface cold front translate southeast with the arrival of a colder and more stable air mass. ...Four Corners... Across portions of the Four Corners, a band of low-topped convection has shown occasional stronger embedded features across parts of northern AZ and far southwestern CO. A few of these storms could slowly intensify through the afternoon ahead of the upper low and cold front. While buoyancy is marginal (generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear could support a risk for transient rotating/organized storms capable of locally strong gusts or a brief tornado from northern AZ, into parts of northern NM and far southwest CO. The risk should begin to wane early this evening as the cold front shifts eastward and the already limited buoyancy is dissipated. ...Southern High Plains/Rockies... Initially isolated to widely scattered storms, including a few supercell structures, still appear likely this afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of the southern High Plains and Rockies. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado. The Marginal Risk area remains unchanged, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor modifications to the Thunder area over the West. Thunder chances should steadily decrease this afternoon/evening as a deep upper cyclone and a surface cold front translate southeast with the arrival of a colder and more stable air mass. ...Four Corners... Across portions of the Four Corners, a band of low-topped convection has shown occasional stronger embedded features across parts of northern AZ and far southwestern CO. A few of these storms could slowly intensify through the afternoon ahead of the upper low and cold front. While buoyancy is marginal (generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear could support a risk for transient rotating/organized storms capable of locally strong gusts or a brief tornado from northern AZ, into parts of northern NM and far southwest CO. The risk should begin to wane early this evening as the cold front shifts eastward and the already limited buoyancy is dissipated. ...Southern High Plains/Rockies... Initially isolated to widely scattered storms, including a few supercell structures, still appear likely this afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of the southern High Plains and Rockies. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado. The Marginal Risk area remains unchanged, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor modifications to the Thunder area over the West. Thunder chances should steadily decrease this afternoon/evening as a deep upper cyclone and a surface cold front translate southeast with the arrival of a colder and more stable air mass. ...Four Corners... Across portions of the Four Corners, a band of low-topped convection has shown occasional stronger embedded features across parts of northern AZ and far southwestern CO. A few of these storms could slowly intensify through the afternoon ahead of the upper low and cold front. While buoyancy is marginal (generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear could support a risk for transient rotating/organized storms capable of locally strong gusts or a brief tornado from northern AZ, into parts of northern NM and far southwest CO. The risk should begin to wane early this evening as the cold front shifts eastward and the already limited buoyancy is dissipated. ...Southern High Plains/Rockies... Initially isolated to widely scattered storms, including a few supercell structures, still appear likely this afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of the southern High Plains and Rockies. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado. The Marginal Risk area remains unchanged, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor modifications to the Thunder area over the West. Thunder chances should steadily decrease this afternoon/evening as a deep upper cyclone and a surface cold front translate southeast with the arrival of a colder and more stable air mass. ...Four Corners... Across portions of the Four Corners, a band of low-topped convection has shown occasional stronger embedded features across parts of northern AZ and far southwestern CO. A few of these storms could slowly intensify through the afternoon ahead of the upper low and cold front. While buoyancy is marginal (generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear could support a risk for transient rotating/organized storms capable of locally strong gusts or a brief tornado from northern AZ, into parts of northern NM and far southwest CO. The risk should begin to wane early this evening as the cold front shifts eastward and the already limited buoyancy is dissipated. ...Southern High Plains/Rockies... Initially isolated to widely scattered storms, including a few supercell structures, still appear likely this afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of the southern High Plains and Rockies. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado. The Marginal Risk area remains unchanged, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor modifications to the Thunder area over the West. Thunder chances should steadily decrease this afternoon/evening as a deep upper cyclone and a surface cold front translate southeast with the arrival of a colder and more stable air mass. ...Four Corners... Across portions of the Four Corners, a band of low-topped convection has shown occasional stronger embedded features across parts of northern AZ and far southwestern CO. A few of these storms could slowly intensify through the afternoon ahead of the upper low and cold front. While buoyancy is marginal (generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear could support a risk for transient rotating/organized storms capable of locally strong gusts or a brief tornado from northern AZ, into parts of northern NM and far southwest CO. The risk should begin to wane early this evening as the cold front shifts eastward and the already limited buoyancy is dissipated. ...Southern High Plains/Rockies... Initially isolated to widely scattered storms, including a few supercell structures, still appear likely this afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of the southern High Plains and Rockies. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado. The Marginal Risk area remains unchanged, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor modifications to the Thunder area over the West. Thunder chances should steadily decrease this afternoon/evening as a deep upper cyclone and a surface cold front translate southeast with the arrival of a colder and more stable air mass. ...Four Corners... Across portions of the Four Corners, a band of low-topped convection has shown occasional stronger embedded features across parts of northern AZ and far southwestern CO. A few of these storms could slowly intensify through the afternoon ahead of the upper low and cold front. While buoyancy is marginal (generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear could support a risk for transient rotating/organized storms capable of locally strong gusts or a brief tornado from northern AZ, into parts of northern NM and far southwest CO. The risk should begin to wane early this evening as the cold front shifts eastward and the already limited buoyancy is dissipated. ...Southern High Plains/Rockies... Initially isolated to widely scattered storms, including a few supercell structures, still appear likely this afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of the southern High Plains and Rockies. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado. The Marginal Risk area remains unchanged, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor modifications to the Thunder area over the West. Thunder chances should steadily decrease this afternoon/evening as a deep upper cyclone and a surface cold front translate southeast with the arrival of a colder and more stable air mass. ...Four Corners... Across portions of the Four Corners, a band of low-topped convection has shown occasional stronger embedded features across parts of northern AZ and far southwestern CO. A few of these storms could slowly intensify through the afternoon ahead of the upper low and cold front. While buoyancy is marginal (generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear could support a risk for transient rotating/organized storms capable of locally strong gusts or a brief tornado from northern AZ, into parts of northern NM and far southwest CO. The risk should begin to wane early this evening as the cold front shifts eastward and the already limited buoyancy is dissipated. ...Southern High Plains/Rockies... Initially isolated to widely scattered storms, including a few supercell structures, still appear likely this afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of the southern High Plains and Rockies. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado. The Marginal Risk area remains unchanged, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes are need to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes are need to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes are need to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes are need to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes are need to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes are need to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more