Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will be ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday/early Monday. This trough will move into the central Plains by early afternoon. Some precipitation can be expected early Monday in association with this trough. A Pacific front will continue eastward into the central/southern Plains. With dry air remaining east of the front, the band of moisture ahead of the front is expected to become increasingly narrow with time. With the stronger forcing for ascent in Kansas, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front in south-central Kansas. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy will also be limited as will the extent of the warm sector. There could be an isolated stronger storm or two, but severe coverage appears too limited and uncertain for unconditional probabilities at this time. Dewpoints in low 60s F are possible in western Oklahoma. However, convergence along the front appears weak and initiation is far from certain. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will be ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday/early Monday. This trough will move into the central Plains by early afternoon. Some precipitation can be expected early Monday in association with this trough. A Pacific front will continue eastward into the central/southern Plains. With dry air remaining east of the front, the band of moisture ahead of the front is expected to become increasingly narrow with time. With the stronger forcing for ascent in Kansas, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front in south-central Kansas. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy will also be limited as will the extent of the warm sector. There could be an isolated stronger storm or two, but severe coverage appears too limited and uncertain for unconditional probabilities at this time. Dewpoints in low 60s F are possible in western Oklahoma. However, convergence along the front appears weak and initiation is far from certain. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will be ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday/early Monday. This trough will move into the central Plains by early afternoon. Some precipitation can be expected early Monday in association with this trough. A Pacific front will continue eastward into the central/southern Plains. With dry air remaining east of the front, the band of moisture ahead of the front is expected to become increasingly narrow with time. With the stronger forcing for ascent in Kansas, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front in south-central Kansas. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy will also be limited as will the extent of the warm sector. There could be an isolated stronger storm or two, but severe coverage appears too limited and uncertain for unconditional probabilities at this time. Dewpoints in low 60s F are possible in western Oklahoma. However, convergence along the front appears weak and initiation is far from certain. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will be ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday/early Monday. This trough will move into the central Plains by early afternoon. Some precipitation can be expected early Monday in association with this trough. A Pacific front will continue eastward into the central/southern Plains. With dry air remaining east of the front, the band of moisture ahead of the front is expected to become increasingly narrow with time. With the stronger forcing for ascent in Kansas, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front in south-central Kansas. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy will also be limited as will the extent of the warm sector. There could be an isolated stronger storm or two, but severe coverage appears too limited and uncertain for unconditional probabilities at this time. Dewpoints in low 60s F are possible in western Oklahoma. However, convergence along the front appears weak and initiation is far from certain. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will be ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday/early Monday. This trough will move into the central Plains by early afternoon. Some precipitation can be expected early Monday in association with this trough. A Pacific front will continue eastward into the central/southern Plains. With dry air remaining east of the front, the band of moisture ahead of the front is expected to become increasingly narrow with time. With the stronger forcing for ascent in Kansas, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front in south-central Kansas. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy will also be limited as will the extent of the warm sector. There could be an isolated stronger storm or two, but severe coverage appears too limited and uncertain for unconditional probabilities at this time. Dewpoints in low 60s F are possible in western Oklahoma. However, convergence along the front appears weak and initiation is far from certain. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New Mexico on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the Four Corners region will initially be moving slowly eastward through the Southwest on Sunday. This feature will trend more progressive towards Sunday evening into Monday morning as it ejects into the parts of the central/southern High Plains. On the western periphery of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley anticyclone, modest surface moisture will be maintained as far north as the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Eastern New Mexico... Early precipitation/cloud cover is probable in the region, particularly across northeastern New Mexico. However, some mid-level dry air is expected to help promote some surface heating in parts of east-central into southeastern New Mexico during the afternoon. Mid-level ascent will not be overly strong, especially with southern extent, but forcing will increase during the evening/overnight. Terrain will likely be the main focus for initiation until this occurs. Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, though low 60s F are not out of the question in southeastern New Mexico. MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is possible where the strongest heating occurs. Long hodographs and 35-40 kts of effective shear will favor potential for supercells capable of large hail and isolated severe gusts. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for a risk of a tornado with the most organized supercells--a risk that will be maximized between 00-01Z. As forcing for ascent increases in northeast New Mexico, some linear structures may develop during mid/late evening. These storms could produce occasional, marginally severe hail and perhaps strong winds. The overall threat should be more marginal given limited buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New Mexico on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the Four Corners region will initially be moving slowly eastward through the Southwest on Sunday. This feature will trend more progressive towards Sunday evening into Monday morning as it ejects into the parts of the central/southern High Plains. On the western periphery of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley anticyclone, modest surface moisture will be maintained as far north as the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Eastern New Mexico... Early precipitation/cloud cover is probable in the region, particularly across northeastern New Mexico. However, some mid-level dry air is expected to help promote some surface heating in parts of east-central into southeastern New Mexico during the afternoon. Mid-level ascent will not be overly strong, especially with southern extent, but forcing will increase during the evening/overnight. Terrain will likely be the main focus for initiation until this occurs. Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, though low 60s F are not out of the question in southeastern New Mexico. MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is possible where the strongest heating occurs. Long hodographs and 35-40 kts of effective shear will favor potential for supercells capable of large hail and isolated severe gusts. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for a risk of a tornado with the most organized supercells--a risk that will be maximized between 00-01Z. As forcing for ascent increases in northeast New Mexico, some linear structures may develop during mid/late evening. These storms could produce occasional, marginally severe hail and perhaps strong winds. The overall threat should be more marginal given limited buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New Mexico on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the Four Corners region will initially be moving slowly eastward through the Southwest on Sunday. This feature will trend more progressive towards Sunday evening into Monday morning as it ejects into the parts of the central/southern High Plains. On the western periphery of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley anticyclone, modest surface moisture will be maintained as far north as the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Eastern New Mexico... Early precipitation/cloud cover is probable in the region, particularly across northeastern New Mexico. However, some mid-level dry air is expected to help promote some surface heating in parts of east-central into southeastern New Mexico during the afternoon. Mid-level ascent will not be overly strong, especially with southern extent, but forcing will increase during the evening/overnight. Terrain will likely be the main focus for initiation until this occurs. Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, though low 60s F are not out of the question in southeastern New Mexico. MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is possible where the strongest heating occurs. Long hodographs and 35-40 kts of effective shear will favor potential for supercells capable of large hail and isolated severe gusts. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for a risk of a tornado with the most organized supercells--a risk that will be maximized between 00-01Z. As forcing for ascent increases in northeast New Mexico, some linear structures may develop during mid/late evening. These storms could produce occasional, marginally severe hail and perhaps strong winds. The overall threat should be more marginal given limited buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2024 Read more