Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 19 22:27:01 UTC 2024.

MD 2150 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Areas affected...East-central New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192223Z - 200030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will likely be maximized across east-central New Mexico over the next 2-3 hours as supercells continue to mature within a supportive environment. Watch issuance is not expected given the relatively limited spatial/temporal extent of the threat. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, several supercells across east-central NM have become much more intense and well-organized, as evident by robust hail signatures in MRMS data and three-body scatter spikes evident in KFDX imagery. In particular, two cells between the Fort Sumner and Roswell areas are currently moving across the most favorable thermodynamic environment, which is characterized by MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg per recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates. With 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear already in place across the warm sector, these two storms will likely remain discrete/semi-discrete supercells for the next couple of hours. Increasing low-level helicity after 00 UTC associated with a strengthening nocturnal jet may support some increase in tornado potential, but this may be conditional on whether storms remain in the viable surface-based warm sector, which is currently limited in northern extent by a residual stationary boundary north of the I-40 corridor. Regardless, these cells will likely pose a severe hail (possibly up to 1.75 inches in diameter) and wind threat through at least 00-01 UTC. ..Moore/Guyer.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... LAT...LON 35300371 35010355 34840353 33540433 33480452 33470474 33680495 34980507 35260497 35450456 35440411 35300371 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 19 22:01:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2149 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191935Z - 192200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few severe storms are expected as convective coverage increases this afternoon and well into the evening. Sporadic large hail as well as a couple brief tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to increase across the region, east of the slow-moving upper low. A north-south oriented band of rain and storms has already formed near the 105.5 W meridian, with brief indications of small hail thus far. Continued heating will lead to further destabilization over the next few hours with upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing with 40-50 kt deep-layer shear. In addition, low-level southeasterlies are enhancing low-level shear with 0-1 KM SRH values around 100 m2/s2, sufficient for a brief tornado. As such, the risk of at least isolated severe storms will increase this afternoon, and a watch may at least be considered as trends dictate. ..Jewell/Mosier.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 32690596 33830563 34700546 35160534 35470521 35880451 35900380 35640353 35150342 34160363 32680429 32380476 32230550 32290579 32500593 32690596 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas through this evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Widespread convection is ongoing in multiple meridional bands east of a broad upper cyclone over the Southwest. Broken cloud cover extends well north into parts of central CO and UT. This should continue to limit diurnal heating and low-level lapse rates across the region. As a result, the thunder area has been trimmed on the northern end where limited buoyancy and weakening ascent should limit thunderstorm potential. Farther south and east, an isolated severe risk will remain possible with deeper convection ahead of the stalled front. Partial clearing and continued low-level upslope flow will support scattered to numerous storms this afternoon and evening. With buoyancy around 1000 J/kg and 40-50 kt of effective shear, a few supercell structures capable of hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible. See MCD #2149 for more detailed information. ..Lyons.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...NM into Far West TX... Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone centered over AZ, with at least one embedded vorticity maximum rotating through its base. Expectation is for this cyclone to remain largely in place throughout the period, with the amplified upper ridging downstream persisting and the stronger westerlies remaining displaced north along the international border. Strong mid-level flow rotates cyclonically around this upper low, with enhanced mid-level southerly flow expected to continue across NM throughout the day. The southeasterly low-level flow currently ongoing across the southern High Plains/southern Plains is expected to strengthen as the gradient between the large eastern CONUS high and the lower surface pressure in the vicinity of the AZ upper cyclone tightens. This will contribute to both low-level moisture advection and strengthening deep-layer vertical shear across the southern High Plains today. Thunderstorms are already ongoing from far eastern AZ into western NM, to the west of the stationary boundary that extends from far south-central NM/ELP vicinity into northeast NM. The deep-layer flow across much of this region predominantly southerly, and with the front-parallel orientation expected to keep these storms west of the front until later this afternoon. Some heating is still possible west of the boundary, which could result in enough buoyancy for a few strong to isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and hail. During the afternoon and evening, the potential for more warm-sector is expected to increase, as ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the upper low spreads across the diurnally destabilized airmass over eastern NM. The combination of low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating will result in moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to maximize around 1000-1500 J/kg across east-central/southeast NM. A few discrete storms appear possible across southeast/south-central NM from around 20Z through 00Z or so. Vertical shear supports supercells and all severe hazards are possible with these storms, including a tornado or two. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along the front as well as it begins to slowly move eastward. A more linear mode is anticipated with this activity, but a few stronger gusts and isolated hail are still possible within this band. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas through this evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Widespread convection is ongoing in multiple meridional bands east of a broad upper cyclone over the Southwest. Broken cloud cover extends well north into parts of central CO and UT. This should continue to limit diurnal heating and low-level lapse rates across the region. As a result, the thunder area has been trimmed on the northern end where limited buoyancy and weakening ascent should limit thunderstorm potential. Farther south and east, an isolated severe risk will remain possible with deeper convection ahead of the stalled front. Partial clearing and continued low-level upslope flow will support scattered to numerous storms this afternoon and evening. With buoyancy around 1000 J/kg and 40-50 kt of effective shear, a few supercell structures capable of hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible. See MCD #2149 for more detailed information. ..Lyons.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...NM into Far West TX... Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone centered over AZ, with at least one embedded vorticity maximum rotating through its base. Expectation is for this cyclone to remain largely in place throughout the period, with the amplified upper ridging downstream persisting and the stronger westerlies remaining displaced north along the international border. Strong mid-level flow rotates cyclonically around this upper low, with enhanced mid-level southerly flow expected to continue across NM throughout the day. The southeasterly low-level flow currently ongoing across the southern High Plains/southern Plains is expected to strengthen as the gradient between the large eastern CONUS high and the lower surface pressure in the vicinity of the AZ upper cyclone tightens. This will contribute to both low-level moisture advection and strengthening deep-layer vertical shear across the southern High Plains today. Thunderstorms are already ongoing from far eastern AZ into western NM, to the west of the stationary boundary that extends from far south-central NM/ELP vicinity into northeast NM. The deep-layer flow across much of this region predominantly southerly, and with the front-parallel orientation expected to keep these storms west of the front until later this afternoon. Some heating is still possible west of the boundary, which could result in enough buoyancy for a few strong to isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and hail. During the afternoon and evening, the potential for more warm-sector is expected to increase, as ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the upper low spreads across the diurnally destabilized airmass over eastern NM. The combination of low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating will result in moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to maximize around 1000-1500 J/kg across east-central/southeast NM. A few discrete storms appear possible across southeast/south-central NM from around 20Z through 00Z or so. Vertical shear supports supercells and all severe hazards are possible with these storms, including a tornado or two. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along the front as well as it begins to slowly move eastward. A more linear mode is anticipated with this activity, but a few stronger gusts and isolated hail are still possible within this band. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas through this evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Widespread convection is ongoing in multiple meridional bands east of a broad upper cyclone over the Southwest. Broken cloud cover extends well north into parts of central CO and UT. This should continue to limit diurnal heating and low-level lapse rates across the region. As a result, the thunder area has been trimmed on the northern end where limited buoyancy and weakening ascent should limit thunderstorm potential. Farther south and east, an isolated severe risk will remain possible with deeper convection ahead of the stalled front. Partial clearing and continued low-level upslope flow will support scattered to numerous storms this afternoon and evening. With buoyancy around 1000 J/kg and 40-50 kt of effective shear, a few supercell structures capable of hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible. See MCD #2149 for more detailed information. ..Lyons.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...NM into Far West TX... Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone centered over AZ, with at least one embedded vorticity maximum rotating through its base. Expectation is for this cyclone to remain largely in place throughout the period, with the amplified upper ridging downstream persisting and the stronger westerlies remaining displaced north along the international border. Strong mid-level flow rotates cyclonically around this upper low, with enhanced mid-level southerly flow expected to continue across NM throughout the day. The southeasterly low-level flow currently ongoing across the southern High Plains/southern Plains is expected to strengthen as the gradient between the large eastern CONUS high and the lower surface pressure in the vicinity of the AZ upper cyclone tightens. This will contribute to both low-level moisture advection and strengthening deep-layer vertical shear across the southern High Plains today. Thunderstorms are already ongoing from far eastern AZ into western NM, to the west of the stationary boundary that extends from far south-central NM/ELP vicinity into northeast NM. The deep-layer flow across much of this region predominantly southerly, and with the front-parallel orientation expected to keep these storms west of the front until later this afternoon. Some heating is still possible west of the boundary, which could result in enough buoyancy for a few strong to isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and hail. During the afternoon and evening, the potential for more warm-sector is expected to increase, as ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the upper low spreads across the diurnally destabilized airmass over eastern NM. The combination of low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating will result in moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to maximize around 1000-1500 J/kg across east-central/southeast NM. A few discrete storms appear possible across southeast/south-central NM from around 20Z through 00Z or so. Vertical shear supports supercells and all severe hazards are possible with these storms, including a tornado or two. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along the front as well as it begins to slowly move eastward. A more linear mode is anticipated with this activity, but a few stronger gusts and isolated hail are still possible within this band. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas through this evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Widespread convection is ongoing in multiple meridional bands east of a broad upper cyclone over the Southwest. Broken cloud cover extends well north into parts of central CO and UT. This should continue to limit diurnal heating and low-level lapse rates across the region. As a result, the thunder area has been trimmed on the northern end where limited buoyancy and weakening ascent should limit thunderstorm potential. Farther south and east, an isolated severe risk will remain possible with deeper convection ahead of the stalled front. Partial clearing and continued low-level upslope flow will support scattered to numerous storms this afternoon and evening. With buoyancy around 1000 J/kg and 40-50 kt of effective shear, a few supercell structures capable of hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible. See MCD #2149 for more detailed information. ..Lyons.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...NM into Far West TX... Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone centered over AZ, with at least one embedded vorticity maximum rotating through its base. Expectation is for this cyclone to remain largely in place throughout the period, with the amplified upper ridging downstream persisting and the stronger westerlies remaining displaced north along the international border. Strong mid-level flow rotates cyclonically around this upper low, with enhanced mid-level southerly flow expected to continue across NM throughout the day. The southeasterly low-level flow currently ongoing across the southern High Plains/southern Plains is expected to strengthen as the gradient between the large eastern CONUS high and the lower surface pressure in the vicinity of the AZ upper cyclone tightens. This will contribute to both low-level moisture advection and strengthening deep-layer vertical shear across the southern High Plains today. Thunderstorms are already ongoing from far eastern AZ into western NM, to the west of the stationary boundary that extends from far south-central NM/ELP vicinity into northeast NM. The deep-layer flow across much of this region predominantly southerly, and with the front-parallel orientation expected to keep these storms west of the front until later this afternoon. Some heating is still possible west of the boundary, which could result in enough buoyancy for a few strong to isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and hail. During the afternoon and evening, the potential for more warm-sector is expected to increase, as ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the upper low spreads across the diurnally destabilized airmass over eastern NM. The combination of low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating will result in moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to maximize around 1000-1500 J/kg across east-central/southeast NM. A few discrete storms appear possible across southeast/south-central NM from around 20Z through 00Z or so. Vertical shear supports supercells and all severe hazards are possible with these storms, including a tornado or two. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along the front as well as it begins to slowly move eastward. A more linear mode is anticipated with this activity, but a few stronger gusts and isolated hail are still possible within this band. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas through this evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Widespread convection is ongoing in multiple meridional bands east of a broad upper cyclone over the Southwest. Broken cloud cover extends well north into parts of central CO and UT. This should continue to limit diurnal heating and low-level lapse rates across the region. As a result, the thunder area has been trimmed on the northern end where limited buoyancy and weakening ascent should limit thunderstorm potential. Farther south and east, an isolated severe risk will remain possible with deeper convection ahead of the stalled front. Partial clearing and continued low-level upslope flow will support scattered to numerous storms this afternoon and evening. With buoyancy around 1000 J/kg and 40-50 kt of effective shear, a few supercell structures capable of hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible. See MCD #2149 for more detailed information. ..Lyons.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...NM into Far West TX... Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone centered over AZ, with at least one embedded vorticity maximum rotating through its base. Expectation is for this cyclone to remain largely in place throughout the period, with the amplified upper ridging downstream persisting and the stronger westerlies remaining displaced north along the international border. Strong mid-level flow rotates cyclonically around this upper low, with enhanced mid-level southerly flow expected to continue across NM throughout the day. The southeasterly low-level flow currently ongoing across the southern High Plains/southern Plains is expected to strengthen as the gradient between the large eastern CONUS high and the lower surface pressure in the vicinity of the AZ upper cyclone tightens. This will contribute to both low-level moisture advection and strengthening deep-layer vertical shear across the southern High Plains today. Thunderstorms are already ongoing from far eastern AZ into western NM, to the west of the stationary boundary that extends from far south-central NM/ELP vicinity into northeast NM. The deep-layer flow across much of this region predominantly southerly, and with the front-parallel orientation expected to keep these storms west of the front until later this afternoon. Some heating is still possible west of the boundary, which could result in enough buoyancy for a few strong to isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and hail. During the afternoon and evening, the potential for more warm-sector is expected to increase, as ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the upper low spreads across the diurnally destabilized airmass over eastern NM. The combination of low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating will result in moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to maximize around 1000-1500 J/kg across east-central/southeast NM. A few discrete storms appear possible across southeast/south-central NM from around 20Z through 00Z or so. Vertical shear supports supercells and all severe hazards are possible with these storms, including a tornado or two. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along the front as well as it begins to slowly move eastward. A more linear mode is anticipated with this activity, but a few stronger gusts and isolated hail are still possible within this band. Read more