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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph), and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern NM this afternoon/evening... In response to gradual upstream height falls over the Great Basin, a closed midlevel low now over northeast AZ will move east-northeastward to southern CO/northern NM by Monday morning. A narrow corridor of moisture return (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s) will be maintained across eastern NM, along and east of a diffuse lee trough/weak cold front. Pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks across southern/southeastern NM will boost buoyancy during the afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) when convective inhibition will be quite weak and thunderstorm coverage/intensity are both expected to increase across eastern NM. Midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, but relatively long hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), as well as isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph). Additionally, an increase in low-level hodograph curvature through the afternoon/evening in a sufficiently moist environment will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph), and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern NM this afternoon/evening... In response to gradual upstream height falls over the Great Basin, a closed midlevel low now over northeast AZ will move east-northeastward to southern CO/northern NM by Monday morning. A narrow corridor of moisture return (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s) will be maintained across eastern NM, along and east of a diffuse lee trough/weak cold front. Pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks across southern/southeastern NM will boost buoyancy during the afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) when convective inhibition will be quite weak and thunderstorm coverage/intensity are both expected to increase across eastern NM. Midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, but relatively long hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), as well as isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph). Additionally, an increase in low-level hodograph curvature through the afternoon/evening in a sufficiently moist environment will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph), and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern NM this afternoon/evening... In response to gradual upstream height falls over the Great Basin, a closed midlevel low now over northeast AZ will move east-northeastward to southern CO/northern NM by Monday morning. A narrow corridor of moisture return (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s) will be maintained across eastern NM, along and east of a diffuse lee trough/weak cold front. Pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks across southern/southeastern NM will boost buoyancy during the afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) when convective inhibition will be quite weak and thunderstorm coverage/intensity are both expected to increase across eastern NM. Midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, but relatively long hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), as well as isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph). Additionally, an increase in low-level hodograph curvature through the afternoon/evening in a sufficiently moist environment will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph), and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern NM this afternoon/evening... In response to gradual upstream height falls over the Great Basin, a closed midlevel low now over northeast AZ will move east-northeastward to southern CO/northern NM by Monday morning. A narrow corridor of moisture return (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s) will be maintained across eastern NM, along and east of a diffuse lee trough/weak cold front. Pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks across southern/southeastern NM will boost buoyancy during the afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) when convective inhibition will be quite weak and thunderstorm coverage/intensity are both expected to increase across eastern NM. Midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, but relatively long hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), as well as isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph). Additionally, an increase in low-level hodograph curvature through the afternoon/evening in a sufficiently moist environment will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph), and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern NM this afternoon/evening... In response to gradual upstream height falls over the Great Basin, a closed midlevel low now over northeast AZ will move east-northeastward to southern CO/northern NM by Monday morning. A narrow corridor of moisture return (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s) will be maintained across eastern NM, along and east of a diffuse lee trough/weak cold front. Pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks across southern/southeastern NM will boost buoyancy during the afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) when convective inhibition will be quite weak and thunderstorm coverage/intensity are both expected to increase across eastern NM. Midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, but relatively long hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), as well as isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph). Additionally, an increase in low-level hodograph curvature through the afternoon/evening in a sufficiently moist environment will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/20/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific by late today. The
combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the formation
of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern Mexico in a
day or so. Additional development is expected after that time, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle
part of this week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive mid-level pattern will be in place across the CONUS by the middle of this week and through the weekend. A cold front will move through the northeast CONUS on Wednesday with occasional lightning possible. High pressure will build in across the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cold front. This will result in fair weather and minimal severe weather concerns at the end of this week. Weak lee troughing will resume late Friday and into Saturday across the central CONUS. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible along a cold front that will develop and move south. However, moisture will be quite minimal and thus, the severe weather threat will be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive mid-level pattern will be in place across the CONUS by the middle of this week and through the weekend. A cold front will move through the northeast CONUS on Wednesday with occasional lightning possible. High pressure will build in across the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cold front. This will result in fair weather and minimal severe weather concerns at the end of this week. Weak lee troughing will resume late Friday and into Saturday across the central CONUS. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible along a cold front that will develop and move south. However, moisture will be quite minimal and thus, the severe weather threat will be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive mid-level pattern will be in place across the CONUS by the middle of this week and through the weekend. A cold front will move through the northeast CONUS on Wednesday with occasional lightning possible. High pressure will build in across the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cold front. This will result in fair weather and minimal severe weather concerns at the end of this week. Weak lee troughing will resume late Friday and into Saturday across the central CONUS. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible along a cold front that will develop and move south. However, moisture will be quite minimal and thus, the severe weather threat will be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive mid-level pattern will be in place across the CONUS by the middle of this week and through the weekend. A cold front will move through the northeast CONUS on Wednesday with occasional lightning possible. High pressure will build in across the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cold front. This will result in fair weather and minimal severe weather concerns at the end of this week. Weak lee troughing will resume late Friday and into Saturday across the central CONUS. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible along a cold front that will develop and move south. However, moisture will be quite minimal and thus, the severe weather threat will be low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Midwest and get absorbed into the westerlies. At the same time, a surface cold front will move across the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings show weak elevated instability along and in the wake of this surface front. This may permit a few lightning flashes across far northern Minnesota and parts of the Michigan Upper Peninsula. Elsewhere, thunderstorm chances will be limited on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Midwest and get absorbed into the westerlies. At the same time, a surface cold front will move across the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings show weak elevated instability along and in the wake of this surface front. This may permit a few lightning flashes across far northern Minnesota and parts of the Michigan Upper Peninsula. Elsewhere, thunderstorm chances will be limited on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Midwest and get absorbed into the westerlies. At the same time, a surface cold front will move across the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings show weak elevated instability along and in the wake of this surface front. This may permit a few lightning flashes across far northern Minnesota and parts of the Michigan Upper Peninsula. Elsewhere, thunderstorm chances will be limited on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Midwest and get absorbed into the westerlies. At the same time, a surface cold front will move across the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings show weak elevated instability along and in the wake of this surface front. This may permit a few lightning flashes across far northern Minnesota and parts of the Michigan Upper Peninsula. Elsewhere, thunderstorm chances will be limited on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... A cutoff low early Sunday morning across the Southwest will start to be picked up by the westerlies and eventually accelerate east-northeast across the central Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen across the central High Plains. This will draw some low-level moisture northward with mid-50s dewpoints expected into western Kansas by Monday afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along this surface trough with the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Kansas into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma... Mid-50s dewpoints along and ahead of a surface trough in the central Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will result in weak (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) instability. Forecast soundings show inhibition eroding between 20Z and 21Z. Around this time, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Mid level flow is forecast to strengthen somewhat during the day and overspread the narrow warm sector. This will result in a wind profile favorable for supercells. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from any supercells which develop. Significant directional shear in the lowest 500-1000m will support the potential for a tornado or two, but the weak instability should keep the threat somewhat limited. Any severe threat should wane by late evening as the boundary layer cools and inhibition increases. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... A cutoff low early Sunday morning across the Southwest will start to be picked up by the westerlies and eventually accelerate east-northeast across the central Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen across the central High Plains. This will draw some low-level moisture northward with mid-50s dewpoints expected into western Kansas by Monday afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along this surface trough with the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Kansas into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma... Mid-50s dewpoints along and ahead of a surface trough in the central Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will result in weak (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) instability. Forecast soundings show inhibition eroding between 20Z and 21Z. Around this time, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Mid level flow is forecast to strengthen somewhat during the day and overspread the narrow warm sector. This will result in a wind profile favorable for supercells. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from any supercells which develop. Significant directional shear in the lowest 500-1000m will support the potential for a tornado or two, but the weak instability should keep the threat somewhat limited. Any severe threat should wane by late evening as the boundary layer cools and inhibition increases. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... A cutoff low early Sunday morning across the Southwest will start to be picked up by the westerlies and eventually accelerate east-northeast across the central Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen across the central High Plains. This will draw some low-level moisture northward with mid-50s dewpoints expected into western Kansas by Monday afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along this surface trough with the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Kansas into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma... Mid-50s dewpoints along and ahead of a surface trough in the central Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will result in weak (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) instability. Forecast soundings show inhibition eroding between 20Z and 21Z. Around this time, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Mid level flow is forecast to strengthen somewhat during the day and overspread the narrow warm sector. This will result in a wind profile favorable for supercells. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from any supercells which develop. Significant directional shear in the lowest 500-1000m will support the potential for a tornado or two, but the weak instability should keep the threat somewhat limited. Any severe threat should wane by late evening as the boundary layer cools and inhibition increases. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... A cutoff low early Sunday morning across the Southwest will start to be picked up by the westerlies and eventually accelerate east-northeast across the central Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen across the central High Plains. This will draw some low-level moisture northward with mid-50s dewpoints expected into western Kansas by Monday afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along this surface trough with the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Kansas into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma... Mid-50s dewpoints along and ahead of a surface trough in the central Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will result in weak (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) instability. Forecast soundings show inhibition eroding between 20Z and 21Z. Around this time, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Mid level flow is forecast to strengthen somewhat during the day and overspread the narrow warm sector. This will result in a wind profile favorable for supercells. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from any supercells which develop. Significant directional shear in the lowest 500-1000m will support the potential for a tornado or two, but the weak instability should keep the threat somewhat limited. Any severe threat should wane by late evening as the boundary layer cools and inhibition increases. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... A cutoff low early Sunday morning across the Southwest will start to be picked up by the westerlies and eventually accelerate east-northeast across the central Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen across the central High Plains. This will draw some low-level moisture northward with mid-50s dewpoints expected into western Kansas by Monday afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along this surface trough with the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Kansas into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma... Mid-50s dewpoints along and ahead of a surface trough in the central Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will result in weak (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) instability. Forecast soundings show inhibition eroding between 20Z and 21Z. Around this time, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Mid level flow is forecast to strengthen somewhat during the day and overspread the narrow warm sector. This will result in a wind profile favorable for supercells. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from any supercells which develop. Significant directional shear in the lowest 500-1000m will support the potential for a tornado or two, but the weak instability should keep the threat somewhat limited. Any severe threat should wane by late evening as the boundary layer cools and inhibition increases. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A risk for hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two, is forecast across eastern New Mexico from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. ...Eastern New Mexico... 500mb speed max appears to be translating through the base of the trough into the downstream side of the upper low over western NM early this morning. This evolution will finally warrant an ejection of the low into southern CO by the end of the period. Large-scale surface pattern remains favorable for southeasterly boundary-layer flow across the southern High Plains as a dominant surface anticyclone persists downstream from eastern OK into the Middle Atlantic. Deep convection has been common ahead of the upper trough the last few days, especially across NM where longer-lived updrafts/supercells have been observed at times during the late afternoon/early evening. This is once again expected later today as the strongest low-level heating will extend from northern Mexico into the Colorado Plateau and western slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating will lead to weak inhibition across this region by 20z and thunderstorms should readily develop, subsequently spreading downstream into eastern NM where shear favors some longer-lived updrafts. While the magnitude of instability will not be that strong, lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for robust updrafts and supercells. Greatest risk for strong/severe convection will be from mid-afternoon through mid-evening. Some risk for all hazards is possible across portions of eastern NM. Eastern extent of this activity will drop off sharply due to the influence of drier/more stable low-level air mass over the southern Plains. ..Darrow/Moore.. 10/20/2024 Read more