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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure has developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
this morning, which is due in part to the remnants of Nadine.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days, while the system moves westward at around 15 mph away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper low centered over the Four Corners region early Sunday is expected to become more progressive by early Monday, tracking northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day. As it does, associated enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this system and cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the central Plains (and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle and OK). At the surface, a weak low attendant to the upper system will move across KS, just to the southeast of the upper low. Some modest low-level moisture will precede this system, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central Plains into eastern TX Panhandle and western OK... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle into far eastern CO/western KS early Monday morning, fostered by warm advection preceding the upper low mentioned in the synopsis. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue within the warm conveyor throughout the day amid the modest buoyancy fostered predominantly by increased mid-level moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support updraft organization/rotation, with a resultant risk for large hail. Even so, a predominantly linear and elevated storm mode suggest that the overall severe potential will be limited. A relatively greater severe risk is anticipated in the wake of this initial activity, as the surface low and attendant troughing progress through central KS and adjacent portions of south-central NE and northwest OK. Diurnal destabilization appears probable when the cloud cover associated with the leading showers and thunderstorms moves east and temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s. These temperatures amid low 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb) will help support 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level flow will remain strong, with some additional strengthening of the shear provided by backing of the low-level flow near the surface low. This backed low-level flow will also lengthen the low-level hodograph. Overall environment supports organized discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Current guidance suggest the most favorable time frame for severe is between 21Z and 03Z from central KS into south-central NE. However, uncertainty remains regarding both how much diurnal destabilization occurs and the overall storm coverage. As a result, will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook, but a higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper low centered over the Four Corners region early Sunday is expected to become more progressive by early Monday, tracking northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day. As it does, associated enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this system and cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the central Plains (and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle and OK). At the surface, a weak low attendant to the upper system will move across KS, just to the southeast of the upper low. Some modest low-level moisture will precede this system, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central Plains into eastern TX Panhandle and western OK... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle into far eastern CO/western KS early Monday morning, fostered by warm advection preceding the upper low mentioned in the synopsis. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue within the warm conveyor throughout the day amid the modest buoyancy fostered predominantly by increased mid-level moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support updraft organization/rotation, with a resultant risk for large hail. Even so, a predominantly linear and elevated storm mode suggest that the overall severe potential will be limited. A relatively greater severe risk is anticipated in the wake of this initial activity, as the surface low and attendant troughing progress through central KS and adjacent portions of south-central NE and northwest OK. Diurnal destabilization appears probable when the cloud cover associated with the leading showers and thunderstorms moves east and temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s. These temperatures amid low 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb) will help support 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level flow will remain strong, with some additional strengthening of the shear provided by backing of the low-level flow near the surface low. This backed low-level flow will also lengthen the low-level hodograph. Overall environment supports organized discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Current guidance suggest the most favorable time frame for severe is between 21Z and 03Z from central KS into south-central NE. However, uncertainty remains regarding both how much diurnal destabilization occurs and the overall storm coverage. As a result, will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook, but a higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper low centered over the Four Corners region early Sunday is expected to become more progressive by early Monday, tracking northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day. As it does, associated enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this system and cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the central Plains (and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle and OK). At the surface, a weak low attendant to the upper system will move across KS, just to the southeast of the upper low. Some modest low-level moisture will precede this system, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central Plains into eastern TX Panhandle and western OK... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle into far eastern CO/western KS early Monday morning, fostered by warm advection preceding the upper low mentioned in the synopsis. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue within the warm conveyor throughout the day amid the modest buoyancy fostered predominantly by increased mid-level moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support updraft organization/rotation, with a resultant risk for large hail. Even so, a predominantly linear and elevated storm mode suggest that the overall severe potential will be limited. A relatively greater severe risk is anticipated in the wake of this initial activity, as the surface low and attendant troughing progress through central KS and adjacent portions of south-central NE and northwest OK. Diurnal destabilization appears probable when the cloud cover associated with the leading showers and thunderstorms moves east and temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s. These temperatures amid low 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb) will help support 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level flow will remain strong, with some additional strengthening of the shear provided by backing of the low-level flow near the surface low. This backed low-level flow will also lengthen the low-level hodograph. Overall environment supports organized discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Current guidance suggest the most favorable time frame for severe is between 21Z and 03Z from central KS into south-central NE. However, uncertainty remains regarding both how much diurnal destabilization occurs and the overall storm coverage. As a result, will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook, but a higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper low centered over the Four Corners region early Sunday is expected to become more progressive by early Monday, tracking northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day. As it does, associated enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this system and cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the central Plains (and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle and OK). At the surface, a weak low attendant to the upper system will move across KS, just to the southeast of the upper low. Some modest low-level moisture will precede this system, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central Plains into eastern TX Panhandle and western OK... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle into far eastern CO/western KS early Monday morning, fostered by warm advection preceding the upper low mentioned in the synopsis. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue within the warm conveyor throughout the day amid the modest buoyancy fostered predominantly by increased mid-level moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support updraft organization/rotation, with a resultant risk for large hail. Even so, a predominantly linear and elevated storm mode suggest that the overall severe potential will be limited. A relatively greater severe risk is anticipated in the wake of this initial activity, as the surface low and attendant troughing progress through central KS and adjacent portions of south-central NE and northwest OK. Diurnal destabilization appears probable when the cloud cover associated with the leading showers and thunderstorms moves east and temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s. These temperatures amid low 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb) will help support 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level flow will remain strong, with some additional strengthening of the shear provided by backing of the low-level flow near the surface low. This backed low-level flow will also lengthen the low-level hodograph. Overall environment supports organized discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Current guidance suggest the most favorable time frame for severe is between 21Z and 03Z from central KS into south-central NE. However, uncertainty remains regarding both how much diurnal destabilization occurs and the overall storm coverage. As a result, will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook, but a higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper low centered over the Four Corners region early Sunday is expected to become more progressive by early Monday, tracking northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day. As it does, associated enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this system and cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the central Plains (and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle and OK). At the surface, a weak low attendant to the upper system will move across KS, just to the southeast of the upper low. Some modest low-level moisture will precede this system, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central Plains into eastern TX Panhandle and western OK... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle into far eastern CO/western KS early Monday morning, fostered by warm advection preceding the upper low mentioned in the synopsis. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue within the warm conveyor throughout the day amid the modest buoyancy fostered predominantly by increased mid-level moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support updraft organization/rotation, with a resultant risk for large hail. Even so, a predominantly linear and elevated storm mode suggest that the overall severe potential will be limited. A relatively greater severe risk is anticipated in the wake of this initial activity, as the surface low and attendant troughing progress through central KS and adjacent portions of south-central NE and northwest OK. Diurnal destabilization appears probable when the cloud cover associated with the leading showers and thunderstorms moves east and temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s. These temperatures amid low 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb) will help support 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level flow will remain strong, with some additional strengthening of the shear provided by backing of the low-level flow near the surface low. This backed low-level flow will also lengthen the low-level hodograph. Overall environment supports organized discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Current guidance suggest the most favorable time frame for severe is between 21Z and 03Z from central KS into south-central NE. However, uncertainty remains regarding both how much diurnal destabilization occurs and the overall storm coverage. As a result, will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook, but a higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper low centered over the Four Corners region early Sunday is expected to become more progressive by early Monday, tracking northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day. As it does, associated enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this system and cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the central Plains (and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle and OK). At the surface, a weak low attendant to the upper system will move across KS, just to the southeast of the upper low. Some modest low-level moisture will precede this system, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central Plains into eastern TX Panhandle and western OK... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle into far eastern CO/western KS early Monday morning, fostered by warm advection preceding the upper low mentioned in the synopsis. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue within the warm conveyor throughout the day amid the modest buoyancy fostered predominantly by increased mid-level moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support updraft organization/rotation, with a resultant risk for large hail. Even so, a predominantly linear and elevated storm mode suggest that the overall severe potential will be limited. A relatively greater severe risk is anticipated in the wake of this initial activity, as the surface low and attendant troughing progress through central KS and adjacent portions of south-central NE and northwest OK. Diurnal destabilization appears probable when the cloud cover associated with the leading showers and thunderstorms moves east and temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s. These temperatures amid low 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb) will help support 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level flow will remain strong, with some additional strengthening of the shear provided by backing of the low-level flow near the surface low. This backed low-level flow will also lengthen the low-level hodograph. Overall environment supports organized discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Current guidance suggest the most favorable time frame for severe is between 21Z and 03Z from central KS into south-central NE. However, uncertainty remains regarding both how much diurnal destabilization occurs and the overall storm coverage. As a result, will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook, but a higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper low centered over the Four Corners region early Sunday is expected to become more progressive by early Monday, tracking northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day. As it does, associated enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this system and cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the central Plains (and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle and OK). At the surface, a weak low attendant to the upper system will move across KS, just to the southeast of the upper low. Some modest low-level moisture will precede this system, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central Plains into eastern TX Panhandle and western OK... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle into far eastern CO/western KS early Monday morning, fostered by warm advection preceding the upper low mentioned in the synopsis. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue within the warm conveyor throughout the day amid the modest buoyancy fostered predominantly by increased mid-level moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support updraft organization/rotation, with a resultant risk for large hail. Even so, a predominantly linear and elevated storm mode suggest that the overall severe potential will be limited. A relatively greater severe risk is anticipated in the wake of this initial activity, as the surface low and attendant troughing progress through central KS and adjacent portions of south-central NE and northwest OK. Diurnal destabilization appears probable when the cloud cover associated with the leading showers and thunderstorms moves east and temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s. These temperatures amid low 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb) will help support 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level flow will remain strong, with some additional strengthening of the shear provided by backing of the low-level flow near the surface low. This backed low-level flow will also lengthen the low-level hodograph. Overall environment supports organized discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Current guidance suggest the most favorable time frame for severe is between 21Z and 03Z from central KS into south-central NE. However, uncertainty remains regarding both how much diurnal destabilization occurs and the overall storm coverage. As a result, will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook, but a higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper low centered over the Four Corners region early Sunday is expected to become more progressive by early Monday, tracking northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day. As it does, associated enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this system and cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the central Plains (and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle and OK). At the surface, a weak low attendant to the upper system will move across KS, just to the southeast of the upper low. Some modest low-level moisture will precede this system, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central Plains into eastern TX Panhandle and western OK... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle into far eastern CO/western KS early Monday morning, fostered by warm advection preceding the upper low mentioned in the synopsis. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue within the warm conveyor throughout the day amid the modest buoyancy fostered predominantly by increased mid-level moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support updraft organization/rotation, with a resultant risk for large hail. Even so, a predominantly linear and elevated storm mode suggest that the overall severe potential will be limited. A relatively greater severe risk is anticipated in the wake of this initial activity, as the surface low and attendant troughing progress through central KS and adjacent portions of south-central NE and northwest OK. Diurnal destabilization appears probable when the cloud cover associated with the leading showers and thunderstorms moves east and temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s. These temperatures amid low 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb) will help support 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level flow will remain strong, with some additional strengthening of the shear provided by backing of the low-level flow near the surface low. This backed low-level flow will also lengthen the low-level hodograph. Overall environment supports organized discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Current guidance suggest the most favorable time frame for severe is between 21Z and 03Z from central KS into south-central NE. However, uncertainty remains regarding both how much diurnal destabilization occurs and the overall storm coverage. As a result, will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook, but a higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more