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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this evening. ...01z Update... Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings. ..Darrow.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this evening. ...01z Update... Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings. ..Darrow.. 10/21/2024 Read more

WW 0691 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0691 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202342
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next couple of days, while the system
moves westward at around 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

MD 2152 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL NM
Mesoscale Discussion 2152 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Areas affected...Eastern to north-central NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202158Z - 210000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase into the early evening across parts of northern to eastern New Mexico. Large hail should be the main threat, but a tornado or two along with a localized severe gust is also possible. Uncertainty exists with the timing of greater than very isolated coverage, which impacts the expected peak intensity. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased across mainly the north-central to northeast portion of NM, with a more recent increase over the past 30 min just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Other CU/small CB towers are widely spaced south into southeast NM as well. The environment, especially with southern extent where boundary-layer heating has been more pronounced, is conditionally favorable for supercells with strong effective bulk shear and mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. Recent HRRR guidance suggests initial activity should mainly pose a rather isolated large hail threat, with magnitude of 1-1.5 inch along the northern periphery of weak surface-based buoyancy. A more robust severe threat could develop towards 00-02Z if discrete supercells can become sustained farther south as a low-level jet intensifies from the Permian Basin northward. This could support a greater large hail and tornado threat during the early to mid-evening. But this potential increase may be short-lived, given onset of nocturnal cooling amid limited spatial extent of stronger heating west of the persistent stratocu deck still present over far east-central to northeast NM. ..Grams/Hart.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... LAT...LON 36050643 36350448 36610385 36770365 36780306 36150324 35590349 34270375 33920381 33560418 33440462 33490494 34040518 34730551 34950583 35400636 35780670 36050643 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 20 22:31:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2151 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2151 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Areas affected...Northern New Mexico/south-central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201958Z - 202230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected through this afternoon and evening, with small to near-severe size hail as the primary hazard. A watch is not currently anticipated for these storms. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were increasing in coverage and intensity to the northeast of an upper low as of 1955z as ascent continues to overspread the discussion area. Generally weak buoyancy will limit the overall intensity of storms and severe risk as the upper low lifts northeast, however cool mid-level temperatures and supportive shear profiles will result in storms capable of producing copious amounts of small to possibly near-severe hail through early evening. A watch is not expected for storms in this area. Later this afternoon/evening, a more organized severe risk should develop over eastern NM in the vicinity of a diffuse surface trough and in an environment that will be supportive of supercells. Details regarding this severe threat will be addressed through subsequent mesoscale discussions. ..Bunting/Hart.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT... LAT...LON 36110664 36390709 37010734 37570705 37720637 37650479 37370412 37140382 36880368 36590384 36440427 36280553 36110664 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains on D3-Tuesday. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains, primarily on D6 - Friday. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains on D3-Tuesday. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains, primarily on D6 - Friday. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains on D3-Tuesday. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains, primarily on D6 - Friday. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains on D3-Tuesday. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains, primarily on D6 - Friday. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains on D3-Tuesday. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains, primarily on D6 - Friday. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains on D3-Tuesday. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains, primarily on D6 - Friday. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains on D3-Tuesday. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains, primarily on D6 - Friday. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains on D3-Tuesday. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains, primarily on D6 - Friday. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains on D3-Tuesday. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains, primarily on D6 - Friday. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains on D3-Tuesday. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains, primarily on D6 - Friday. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains on D3-Tuesday. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains, primarily on D6 - Friday. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN CO.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The previous outlook remains on track with minor adjustments based on the latest guidance/observations. Severe probabilities have been expanded slightly north and eastward into parts of southeastern CO ahead of strong to potentially severe storms developing over northeastern NM. Some clearing within weak upslope flow across southeast CO will support slightly greater buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) with modestly favorable deep-layer shear for supercell or organized multicells. The cool temperatures aloft and a favorable storm mode could support a risk for severe hail with the strongest storms through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. See forthcoming MCD #2151 for additional info. Farther south across parts of east-central and southeastern NM, additional supercells appear likely late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a weak lee trough and the upper cyclone. More persistent upslope and clearing should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with veering wind profiles. Supercells capable of hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN CO.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The previous outlook remains on track with minor adjustments based on the latest guidance/observations. Severe probabilities have been expanded slightly north and eastward into parts of southeastern CO ahead of strong to potentially severe storms developing over northeastern NM. Some clearing within weak upslope flow across southeast CO will support slightly greater buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) with modestly favorable deep-layer shear for supercell or organized multicells. The cool temperatures aloft and a favorable storm mode could support a risk for severe hail with the strongest storms through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. See forthcoming MCD #2151 for additional info. Farther south across parts of east-central and southeastern NM, additional supercells appear likely late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a weak lee trough and the upper cyclone. More persistent upslope and clearing should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with veering wind profiles. Supercells capable of hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. Read more