Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN CO.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The previous outlook remains on track with minor adjustments based on the latest guidance/observations. Severe probabilities have been expanded slightly north and eastward into parts of southeastern CO ahead of strong to potentially severe storms developing over northeastern NM. Some clearing within weak upslope flow across southeast CO will support slightly greater buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) with modestly favorable deep-layer shear for supercell or organized multicells. The cool temperatures aloft and a favorable storm mode could support a risk for severe hail with the strongest storms through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. See forthcoming MCD #2151 for additional info. Farther south across parts of east-central and southeastern NM, additional supercells appear likely late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a weak lee trough and the upper cyclone. More persistent upslope and clearing should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with veering wind profiles. Supercells capable of hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN CO.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The previous outlook remains on track with minor adjustments based on the latest guidance/observations. Severe probabilities have been expanded slightly north and eastward into parts of southeastern CO ahead of strong to potentially severe storms developing over northeastern NM. Some clearing within weak upslope flow across southeast CO will support slightly greater buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) with modestly favorable deep-layer shear for supercell or organized multicells. The cool temperatures aloft and a favorable storm mode could support a risk for severe hail with the strongest storms through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. See forthcoming MCD #2151 for additional info. Farther south across parts of east-central and southeastern NM, additional supercells appear likely late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a weak lee trough and the upper cyclone. More persistent upslope and clearing should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with veering wind profiles. Supercells capable of hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN CO.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The previous outlook remains on track with minor adjustments based on the latest guidance/observations. Severe probabilities have been expanded slightly north and eastward into parts of southeastern CO ahead of strong to potentially severe storms developing over northeastern NM. Some clearing within weak upslope flow across southeast CO will support slightly greater buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) with modestly favorable deep-layer shear for supercell or organized multicells. The cool temperatures aloft and a favorable storm mode could support a risk for severe hail with the strongest storms through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. See forthcoming MCD #2151 for additional info. Farther south across parts of east-central and southeastern NM, additional supercells appear likely late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a weak lee trough and the upper cyclone. More persistent upslope and clearing should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with veering wind profiles. Supercells capable of hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN CO.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The previous outlook remains on track with minor adjustments based on the latest guidance/observations. Severe probabilities have been expanded slightly north and eastward into parts of southeastern CO ahead of strong to potentially severe storms developing over northeastern NM. Some clearing within weak upslope flow across southeast CO will support slightly greater buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) with modestly favorable deep-layer shear for supercell or organized multicells. The cool temperatures aloft and a favorable storm mode could support a risk for severe hail with the strongest storms through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. See forthcoming MCD #2151 for additional info. Farther south across parts of east-central and southeastern NM, additional supercells appear likely late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a weak lee trough and the upper cyclone. More persistent upslope and clearing should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with veering wind profiles. Supercells capable of hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN CO.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The previous outlook remains on track with minor adjustments based on the latest guidance/observations. Severe probabilities have been expanded slightly north and eastward into parts of southeastern CO ahead of strong to potentially severe storms developing over northeastern NM. Some clearing within weak upslope flow across southeast CO will support slightly greater buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) with modestly favorable deep-layer shear for supercell or organized multicells. The cool temperatures aloft and a favorable storm mode could support a risk for severe hail with the strongest storms through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. See forthcoming MCD #2151 for additional info. Farther south across parts of east-central and southeastern NM, additional supercells appear likely late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a weak lee trough and the upper cyclone. More persistent upslope and clearing should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with veering wind profiles. Supercells capable of hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN CO.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The previous outlook remains on track with minor adjustments based on the latest guidance/observations. Severe probabilities have been expanded slightly north and eastward into parts of southeastern CO ahead of strong to potentially severe storms developing over northeastern NM. Some clearing within weak upslope flow across southeast CO will support slightly greater buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) with modestly favorable deep-layer shear for supercell or organized multicells. The cool temperatures aloft and a favorable storm mode could support a risk for severe hail with the strongest storms through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. See forthcoming MCD #2151 for additional info. Farther south across parts of east-central and southeastern NM, additional supercells appear likely late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a weak lee trough and the upper cyclone. More persistent upslope and clearing should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with veering wind profiles. Supercells capable of hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN CO.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this afternoon/evening. ...20z... The previous outlook remains on track with minor adjustments based on the latest guidance/observations. Severe probabilities have been expanded slightly north and eastward into parts of southeastern CO ahead of strong to potentially severe storms developing over northeastern NM. Some clearing within weak upslope flow across southeast CO will support slightly greater buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) with modestly favorable deep-layer shear for supercell or organized multicells. The cool temperatures aloft and a favorable storm mode could support a risk for severe hail with the strongest storms through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. See forthcoming MCD #2151 for additional info. Farther south across parts of east-central and southeastern NM, additional supercells appear likely late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a weak lee trough and the upper cyclone. More persistent upslope and clearing should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with veering wind profiles. Supercells capable of hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 20 19:46:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more