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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will cross the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday with a surface front advancing east through the period. Moisture will remain limited ahead of this front and thus, severe weather is not expected. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build into the Midwest on D6/Saturday and move into the Mid-Atlantic by D7/Sunday. This will result in tranquil weather through the weekend. Extended range guidance does suggest the potential for some return moisture flow by early next week, but there is considerable uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and any potential severe weather threat would likely be after Monday/D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will cross the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday with a surface front advancing east through the period. Moisture will remain limited ahead of this front and thus, severe weather is not expected. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build into the Midwest on D6/Saturday and move into the Mid-Atlantic by D7/Sunday. This will result in tranquil weather through the weekend. Extended range guidance does suggest the potential for some return moisture flow by early next week, but there is considerable uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and any potential severe weather threat would likely be after Monday/D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will cross the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday with a surface front advancing east through the period. Moisture will remain limited ahead of this front and thus, severe weather is not expected. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build into the Midwest on D6/Saturday and move into the Mid-Atlantic by D7/Sunday. This will result in tranquil weather through the weekend. Extended range guidance does suggest the potential for some return moisture flow by early next week, but there is considerable uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and any potential severe weather threat would likely be after Monday/D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will cross the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday with a surface front advancing east through the period. Moisture will remain limited ahead of this front and thus, severe weather is not expected. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build into the Midwest on D6/Saturday and move into the Mid-Atlantic by D7/Sunday. This will result in tranquil weather through the weekend. Extended range guidance does suggest the potential for some return moisture flow by early next week, but there is considerable uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and any potential severe weather threat would likely be after Monday/D8. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across parts of central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains through this evening... A midlevel low over CO this morning will continue to evolve into an open wave while progressing eastward over KS/NE today to IA/MO overnight. Largely elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a broken band from the TX Panhandle into western KS, in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be possible this morning with these storms, given MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. In the wake of the morning convection, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s) and surface heating will precede the midlevel trough and an associated lee surface trough from the eastern TX Panhandle into western and central KS/NE. A few thunderstorms will be possible along/immediately east of the lee trough by mid-late afternoon this afternoon as convective inhibition diminishes with at least weak ascent. Forecast profiles suggest the potential for isolated supercells capable of producing large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter), isolated strong outflow gusts of 50-60 mph, and potentially a tornado or two. The severe threat will peak late this afternoon before decreasing near/after sunset as the low levels begin to stabilize and the zone of ascent shifts east of the confined moist sector. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across parts of central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains through this evening... A midlevel low over CO this morning will continue to evolve into an open wave while progressing eastward over KS/NE today to IA/MO overnight. Largely elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a broken band from the TX Panhandle into western KS, in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be possible this morning with these storms, given MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. In the wake of the morning convection, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s) and surface heating will precede the midlevel trough and an associated lee surface trough from the eastern TX Panhandle into western and central KS/NE. A few thunderstorms will be possible along/immediately east of the lee trough by mid-late afternoon this afternoon as convective inhibition diminishes with at least weak ascent. Forecast profiles suggest the potential for isolated supercells capable of producing large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter), isolated strong outflow gusts of 50-60 mph, and potentially a tornado or two. The severe threat will peak late this afternoon before decreasing near/after sunset as the low levels begin to stabilize and the zone of ascent shifts east of the confined moist sector. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across parts of central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains through this evening... A midlevel low over CO this morning will continue to evolve into an open wave while progressing eastward over KS/NE today to IA/MO overnight. Largely elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a broken band from the TX Panhandle into western KS, in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be possible this morning with these storms, given MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. In the wake of the morning convection, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s) and surface heating will precede the midlevel trough and an associated lee surface trough from the eastern TX Panhandle into western and central KS/NE. A few thunderstorms will be possible along/immediately east of the lee trough by mid-late afternoon this afternoon as convective inhibition diminishes with at least weak ascent. Forecast profiles suggest the potential for isolated supercells capable of producing large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter), isolated strong outflow gusts of 50-60 mph, and potentially a tornado or two. The severe threat will peak late this afternoon before decreasing near/after sunset as the low levels begin to stabilize and the zone of ascent shifts east of the confined moist sector. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across parts of central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains through this evening... A midlevel low over CO this morning will continue to evolve into an open wave while progressing eastward over KS/NE today to IA/MO overnight. Largely elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a broken band from the TX Panhandle into western KS, in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be possible this morning with these storms, given MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. In the wake of the morning convection, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s) and surface heating will precede the midlevel trough and an associated lee surface trough from the eastern TX Panhandle into western and central KS/NE. A few thunderstorms will be possible along/immediately east of the lee trough by mid-late afternoon this afternoon as convective inhibition diminishes with at least weak ascent. Forecast profiles suggest the potential for isolated supercells capable of producing large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter), isolated strong outflow gusts of 50-60 mph, and potentially a tornado or two. The severe threat will peak late this afternoon before decreasing near/after sunset as the low levels begin to stabilize and the zone of ascent shifts east of the confined moist sector. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across parts of central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains through this evening... A midlevel low over CO this morning will continue to evolve into an open wave while progressing eastward over KS/NE today to IA/MO overnight. Largely elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a broken band from the TX Panhandle into western KS, in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be possible this morning with these storms, given MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. In the wake of the morning convection, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s) and surface heating will precede the midlevel trough and an associated lee surface trough from the eastern TX Panhandle into western and central KS/NE. A few thunderstorms will be possible along/immediately east of the lee trough by mid-late afternoon this afternoon as convective inhibition diminishes with at least weak ascent. Forecast profiles suggest the potential for isolated supercells capable of producing large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter), isolated strong outflow gusts of 50-60 mph, and potentially a tornado or two. The severe threat will peak late this afternoon before decreasing near/after sunset as the low levels begin to stabilize and the zone of ascent shifts east of the confined moist sector. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/21/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore
of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression or
storm is expected to form within the next day or so while the system
moves westward at around 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Papin/Delgado

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and surface cold front will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Wednesday. Weak instability is forecast to develop across western New York and vicinity during the afternoon. Shallow convection and a few lightning flashes will be possible along this cold front as it moves quickly across portions of the northeast Wednesday afternoon. A strong, mostly unidirectional wind profile will be present which could cause some gusty winds with these showers and thunderstorms. If greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. However, at this time, forecast instability is very weak and thus, no severe weather probabilities are justified. ..Bentley.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and surface cold front will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Wednesday. Weak instability is forecast to develop across western New York and vicinity during the afternoon. Shallow convection and a few lightning flashes will be possible along this cold front as it moves quickly across portions of the northeast Wednesday afternoon. A strong, mostly unidirectional wind profile will be present which could cause some gusty winds with these showers and thunderstorms. If greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. However, at this time, forecast instability is very weak and thus, no severe weather probabilities are justified. ..Bentley.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and surface cold front will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Wednesday. Weak instability is forecast to develop across western New York and vicinity during the afternoon. Shallow convection and a few lightning flashes will be possible along this cold front as it moves quickly across portions of the northeast Wednesday afternoon. A strong, mostly unidirectional wind profile will be present which could cause some gusty winds with these showers and thunderstorms. If greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. However, at this time, forecast instability is very weak and thus, no severe weather probabilities are justified. ..Bentley.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and surface cold front will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Wednesday. Weak instability is forecast to develop across western New York and vicinity during the afternoon. Shallow convection and a few lightning flashes will be possible along this cold front as it moves quickly across portions of the northeast Wednesday afternoon. A strong, mostly unidirectional wind profile will be present which could cause some gusty winds with these showers and thunderstorms. If greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. However, at this time, forecast instability is very weak and thus, no severe weather probabilities are justified. ..Bentley.. 10/21/2024 Read more

WW 0691 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TCC TO 55 WSW TCC TO 30 SSE LVS TO 40 ESE TAD. ..GOSS..10/21/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC007-009-019-021-033-037-047-059-210740- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX CURRY GUADALUPE HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 691 SEVERE TSTM NM 202355Z - 210700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico * Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 555 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to further develop through the early evening hours, mainly posing a large hail and severe wind gust risk through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of Raton NM to 20 miles southwest of Roswell NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will be absorbed into the broader westerlies on Tuesday as it traverses from the Midwest to the Upper Great Lakes. Some remnant convection is expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning in the vicinity of this trough across Missouri, but this convection should weaken by mid-day as it moves into drier air. Ridging will start to build in the western CONUS with an extended moderately strong jet-stream from the Oregon/California border to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will traverse the northern Plains during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected along this frontal boundary, as temperatures cool aloft and forcing increases ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough approaching the area from the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces. Instability will be limited, but may be sufficient for some lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will be absorbed into the broader westerlies on Tuesday as it traverses from the Midwest to the Upper Great Lakes. Some remnant convection is expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning in the vicinity of this trough across Missouri, but this convection should weaken by mid-day as it moves into drier air. Ridging will start to build in the western CONUS with an extended moderately strong jet-stream from the Oregon/California border to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will traverse the northern Plains during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected along this frontal boundary, as temperatures cool aloft and forcing increases ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough approaching the area from the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces. Instability will be limited, but may be sufficient for some lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 10/21/2024 Read more