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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Midwest throughout the day Tuesday. An associated cold front will accompany it, with breezy northwesterly surface winds moving down the northern and central Plains during the afternoon. A cooler post-frontal air mass will keep RH above critical thresholds for most locations. However, a narrow corridor of drier conditions/lower RH from northwestern NE into portions of SD may exist where rain did not fall from the previous day. Temporal confidence is not quite high enough to introduce a small Elevated area for this region, though subsequent forecasts may require it depending on the progression of the front and Monday's rainfall footprint. Overall, the fire weather threat should remain relatively low Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Midwest throughout the day Tuesday. An associated cold front will accompany it, with breezy northwesterly surface winds moving down the northern and central Plains during the afternoon. A cooler post-frontal air mass will keep RH above critical thresholds for most locations. However, a narrow corridor of drier conditions/lower RH from northwestern NE into portions of SD may exist where rain did not fall from the previous day. Temporal confidence is not quite high enough to introduce a small Elevated area for this region, though subsequent forecasts may require it depending on the progression of the front and Monday's rainfall footprint. Overall, the fire weather threat should remain relatively low Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Midwest throughout the day Tuesday. An associated cold front will accompany it, with breezy northwesterly surface winds moving down the northern and central Plains during the afternoon. A cooler post-frontal air mass will keep RH above critical thresholds for most locations. However, a narrow corridor of drier conditions/lower RH from northwestern NE into portions of SD may exist where rain did not fall from the previous day. Temporal confidence is not quite high enough to introduce a small Elevated area for this region, though subsequent forecasts may require it depending on the progression of the front and Monday's rainfall footprint. Overall, the fire weather threat should remain relatively low Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Midwest throughout the day Tuesday. An associated cold front will accompany it, with breezy northwesterly surface winds moving down the northern and central Plains during the afternoon. A cooler post-frontal air mass will keep RH above critical thresholds for most locations. However, a narrow corridor of drier conditions/lower RH from northwestern NE into portions of SD may exist where rain did not fall from the previous day. Temporal confidence is not quite high enough to introduce a small Elevated area for this region, though subsequent forecasts may require it depending on the progression of the front and Monday's rainfall footprint. Overall, the fire weather threat should remain relatively low Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Midwest throughout the day Tuesday. An associated cold front will accompany it, with breezy northwesterly surface winds moving down the northern and central Plains during the afternoon. A cooler post-frontal air mass will keep RH above critical thresholds for most locations. However, a narrow corridor of drier conditions/lower RH from northwestern NE into portions of SD may exist where rain did not fall from the previous day. Temporal confidence is not quite high enough to introduce a small Elevated area for this region, though subsequent forecasts may require it depending on the progression of the front and Monday's rainfall footprint. Overall, the fire weather threat should remain relatively low Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Midwest throughout the day Tuesday. An associated cold front will accompany it, with breezy northwesterly surface winds moving down the northern and central Plains during the afternoon. A cooler post-frontal air mass will keep RH above critical thresholds for most locations. However, a narrow corridor of drier conditions/lower RH from northwestern NE into portions of SD may exist where rain did not fall from the previous day. Temporal confidence is not quite high enough to introduce a small Elevated area for this region, though subsequent forecasts may require it depending on the progression of the front and Monday's rainfall footprint. Overall, the fire weather threat should remain relatively low Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Midwest throughout the day Tuesday. An associated cold front will accompany it, with breezy northwesterly surface winds moving down the northern and central Plains during the afternoon. A cooler post-frontal air mass will keep RH above critical thresholds for most locations. However, a narrow corridor of drier conditions/lower RH from northwestern NE into portions of SD may exist where rain did not fall from the previous day. Temporal confidence is not quite high enough to introduce a small Elevated area for this region, though subsequent forecasts may require it depending on the progression of the front and Monday's rainfall footprint. Overall, the fire weather threat should remain relatively low Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Midwest throughout the day Tuesday. An associated cold front will accompany it, with breezy northwesterly surface winds moving down the northern and central Plains during the afternoon. A cooler post-frontal air mass will keep RH above critical thresholds for most locations. However, a narrow corridor of drier conditions/lower RH from northwestern NE into portions of SD may exist where rain did not fall from the previous day. Temporal confidence is not quite high enough to introduce a small Elevated area for this region, though subsequent forecasts may require it depending on the progression of the front and Monday's rainfall footprint. Overall, the fire weather threat should remain relatively low Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Midwest throughout the day Tuesday. An associated cold front will accompany it, with breezy northwesterly surface winds moving down the northern and central Plains during the afternoon. A cooler post-frontal air mass will keep RH above critical thresholds for most locations. However, a narrow corridor of drier conditions/lower RH from northwestern NE into portions of SD may exist where rain did not fall from the previous day. Temporal confidence is not quite high enough to introduce a small Elevated area for this region, though subsequent forecasts may require it depending on the progression of the front and Monday's rainfall footprint. Overall, the fire weather threat should remain relatively low Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Midwest throughout the day Tuesday. An associated cold front will accompany it, with breezy northwesterly surface winds moving down the northern and central Plains during the afternoon. A cooler post-frontal air mass will keep RH above critical thresholds for most locations. However, a narrow corridor of drier conditions/lower RH from northwestern NE into portions of SD may exist where rain did not fall from the previous day. Temporal confidence is not quite high enough to introduce a small Elevated area for this region, though subsequent forecasts may require it depending on the progression of the front and Monday's rainfall footprint. Overall, the fire weather threat should remain relatively low Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more