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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Thursday ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough advances off the East Coast a more zonal pattern will develop across the CONUS. A weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within this zonal pattern will move from the Plains to the Midwest with a weak surface low associated with it. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this trough and with some elevated thunderstorms possible during the late evening and into the overnight hours as the low-level jet strengthens. Some hail may be possible with this activity, but relatively weak instability should preclude any significant severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Thursday ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough advances off the East Coast a more zonal pattern will develop across the CONUS. A weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within this zonal pattern will move from the Plains to the Midwest with a weak surface low associated with it. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this trough and with some elevated thunderstorms possible during the late evening and into the overnight hours as the low-level jet strengthens. Some hail may be possible with this activity, but relatively weak instability should preclude any significant severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. A very dry, continental airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central United States. As a surface ridge slides east toward the Great Lakes, a dry return flow pattern will develop across much of the Plains. At this point, critical fire weather conditions are not expected, but an increase in initial attack may occur. Areas across the Plains will be monitored for potential elevated highlights in later forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. A very dry, continental airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central United States. As a surface ridge slides east toward the Great Lakes, a dry return flow pattern will develop across much of the Plains. At this point, critical fire weather conditions are not expected, but an increase in initial attack may occur. Areas across the Plains will be monitored for potential elevated highlights in later forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. A very dry, continental airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central United States. As a surface ridge slides east toward the Great Lakes, a dry return flow pattern will develop across much of the Plains. At this point, critical fire weather conditions are not expected, but an increase in initial attack may occur. Areas across the Plains will be monitored for potential elevated highlights in later forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. A very dry, continental airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central United States. As a surface ridge slides east toward the Great Lakes, a dry return flow pattern will develop across much of the Plains. At this point, critical fire weather conditions are not expected, but an increase in initial attack may occur. Areas across the Plains will be monitored for potential elevated highlights in later forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. A very dry, continental airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central United States. As a surface ridge slides east toward the Great Lakes, a dry return flow pattern will develop across much of the Plains. At this point, critical fire weather conditions are not expected, but an increase in initial attack may occur. Areas across the Plains will be monitored for potential elevated highlights in later forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States today. A surface cold front will move southward across the Plains today in the wake of a mid-level short-wave trough moving northeast toward the Great Lakes. Winds will increase and become gusty behind the front, however, a cooler airmass should allow relative humidity to remain above critical thresholds. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States today. A surface cold front will move southward across the Plains today in the wake of a mid-level short-wave trough moving northeast toward the Great Lakes. Winds will increase and become gusty behind the front, however, a cooler airmass should allow relative humidity to remain above critical thresholds. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States today. A surface cold front will move southward across the Plains today in the wake of a mid-level short-wave trough moving northeast toward the Great Lakes. Winds will increase and become gusty behind the front, however, a cooler airmass should allow relative humidity to remain above critical thresholds. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States today. A surface cold front will move southward across the Plains today in the wake of a mid-level short-wave trough moving northeast toward the Great Lakes. Winds will increase and become gusty behind the front, however, a cooler airmass should allow relative humidity to remain above critical thresholds. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States today. A surface cold front will move southward across the Plains today in the wake of a mid-level short-wave trough moving northeast toward the Great Lakes. Winds will increase and become gusty behind the front, however, a cooler airmass should allow relative humidity to remain above critical thresholds. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Red River into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the tail end of the cold front will move into an airmass with weak to moderate instability during the afternoon/evening. However, a relatively thin instability profile and weak shear should mitigate any severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Red River into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the tail end of the cold front will move into an airmass with weak to moderate instability during the afternoon/evening. However, a relatively thin instability profile and weak shear should mitigate any severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Red River into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the tail end of the cold front will move into an airmass with weak to moderate instability during the afternoon/evening. However, a relatively thin instability profile and weak shear should mitigate any severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Red River into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the tail end of the cold front will move into an airmass with weak to moderate instability during the afternoon/evening. However, a relatively thin instability profile and weak shear should mitigate any severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Red River into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the tail end of the cold front will move into an airmass with weak to moderate instability during the afternoon/evening. However, a relatively thin instability profile and weak shear should mitigate any severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...North-central States... Primary thunder potential should occur through about midday in association with a shortwave trough progressing from the Mid-MO Valley to the central Great Lakes. Despite dampening of this wave, sufficient forcing for ascent amid weak elevated buoyancy should yield at least isolated storms centered on the Mid-MS Valley. Modest cloud-bearing shear within the high-based/low-topped convective profile should mitigate severe potential. Farther west-northwest, an upstream shortwave trough will amplify across the Prairie Provinces into the northern Upper Midwest. Sporadic lightning flashes may occur within the attendant warm conveyor ahead of this wave, during the morning into the afternoon. Scant elevated buoyancy will limit storm coverage. Surface-based thunderstorms are unlikely at peak heating along the cold front sweeping east, as boundary-layer moisture is expected to be inadequate for supporting lightning production. ...TX Trans-Pecos... Despite a very weak tropospheric flow regime, a plume of modestly enriched lower-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated, pulse thunderstorms during the late afternoon over the higher terrain near the Big Bend. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...North-central States... Primary thunder potential should occur through about midday in association with a shortwave trough progressing from the Mid-MO Valley to the central Great Lakes. Despite dampening of this wave, sufficient forcing for ascent amid weak elevated buoyancy should yield at least isolated storms centered on the Mid-MS Valley. Modest cloud-bearing shear within the high-based/low-topped convective profile should mitigate severe potential. Farther west-northwest, an upstream shortwave trough will amplify across the Prairie Provinces into the northern Upper Midwest. Sporadic lightning flashes may occur within the attendant warm conveyor ahead of this wave, during the morning into the afternoon. Scant elevated buoyancy will limit storm coverage. Surface-based thunderstorms are unlikely at peak heating along the cold front sweeping east, as boundary-layer moisture is expected to be inadequate for supporting lightning production. ...TX Trans-Pecos... Despite a very weak tropospheric flow regime, a plume of modestly enriched lower-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated, pulse thunderstorms during the late afternoon over the higher terrain near the Big Bend. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...North-central States... Primary thunder potential should occur through about midday in association with a shortwave trough progressing from the Mid-MO Valley to the central Great Lakes. Despite dampening of this wave, sufficient forcing for ascent amid weak elevated buoyancy should yield at least isolated storms centered on the Mid-MS Valley. Modest cloud-bearing shear within the high-based/low-topped convective profile should mitigate severe potential. Farther west-northwest, an upstream shortwave trough will amplify across the Prairie Provinces into the northern Upper Midwest. Sporadic lightning flashes may occur within the attendant warm conveyor ahead of this wave, during the morning into the afternoon. Scant elevated buoyancy will limit storm coverage. Surface-based thunderstorms are unlikely at peak heating along the cold front sweeping east, as boundary-layer moisture is expected to be inadequate for supporting lightning production. ...TX Trans-Pecos... Despite a very weak tropospheric flow regime, a plume of modestly enriched lower-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated, pulse thunderstorms during the late afternoon over the higher terrain near the Big Bend. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/22/2024 Read more