Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... A marginal threat for a tornado continues this evening across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...01z Update... Remnants of TS Debby are quickly lifting northeast into southern QC early this evening. While low-level shear remains strong ahead of the progressive short-wave trough, buoyancy is negligible across northern New England and very limited across southern portions. Over the last hour or so, lightning has diminished as cloud tops warm and convection is weakening. Will maintain a marginal risk for gusty winds and perhaps a brief, weak tornado this evening. Otherwise, severe threat appears to be diminishing. Upstream across the southern High Plains into WY, west-northwesterly flow is dominant along the northern periphery of the southern US anticyclone centered over TX. A few weak disturbances are progressing across the Great Basin before turning southeast toward the central High Plains. Each of these features appears to be influencing a couple of corridors of organized convection. The southern-most corridor extends from southwest KS into northeast NM. This activity should spread into the TX Panhandle later this evening and gusty winds could be noted at times. Even so, lapse rates are not especially steep at AMA this evening with roughly 300 J/kg MLCAPE. Warm advection profiles favor this activity persisting deep into the evening hours. Scattered convection is also somewhat organized across south-central WY, immediately ahead of a weak disturbance. RIW sounding exhibited weak buoyancy, and the air mass east of the Laramie Mountains is poor with surface temperatures only in the upper 50s. This activity could generate gusty winds for a few hours, but otherwise remain mostly below severe levels. ..Darrow.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... A marginal threat for a tornado continues this evening across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...01z Update... Remnants of TS Debby are quickly lifting northeast into southern QC early this evening. While low-level shear remains strong ahead of the progressive short-wave trough, buoyancy is negligible across northern New England and very limited across southern portions. Over the last hour or so, lightning has diminished as cloud tops warm and convection is weakening. Will maintain a marginal risk for gusty winds and perhaps a brief, weak tornado this evening. Otherwise, severe threat appears to be diminishing. Upstream across the southern High Plains into WY, west-northwesterly flow is dominant along the northern periphery of the southern US anticyclone centered over TX. A few weak disturbances are progressing across the Great Basin before turning southeast toward the central High Plains. Each of these features appears to be influencing a couple of corridors of organized convection. The southern-most corridor extends from southwest KS into northeast NM. This activity should spread into the TX Panhandle later this evening and gusty winds could be noted at times. Even so, lapse rates are not especially steep at AMA this evening with roughly 300 J/kg MLCAPE. Warm advection profiles favor this activity persisting deep into the evening hours. Scattered convection is also somewhat organized across south-central WY, immediately ahead of a weak disturbance. RIW sounding exhibited weak buoyancy, and the air mass east of the Laramie Mountains is poor with surface temperatures only in the upper 50s. This activity could generate gusty winds for a few hours, but otherwise remain mostly below severe levels. ..Darrow.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... A marginal threat for a tornado continues this evening across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...01z Update... Remnants of TS Debby are quickly lifting northeast into southern QC early this evening. While low-level shear remains strong ahead of the progressive short-wave trough, buoyancy is negligible across northern New England and very limited across southern portions. Over the last hour or so, lightning has diminished as cloud tops warm and convection is weakening. Will maintain a marginal risk for gusty winds and perhaps a brief, weak tornado this evening. Otherwise, severe threat appears to be diminishing. Upstream across the southern High Plains into WY, west-northwesterly flow is dominant along the northern periphery of the southern US anticyclone centered over TX. A few weak disturbances are progressing across the Great Basin before turning southeast toward the central High Plains. Each of these features appears to be influencing a couple of corridors of organized convection. The southern-most corridor extends from southwest KS into northeast NM. This activity should spread into the TX Panhandle later this evening and gusty winds could be noted at times. Even so, lapse rates are not especially steep at AMA this evening with roughly 300 J/kg MLCAPE. Warm advection profiles favor this activity persisting deep into the evening hours. Scattered convection is also somewhat organized across south-central WY, immediately ahead of a weak disturbance. RIW sounding exhibited weak buoyancy, and the air mass east of the Laramie Mountains is poor with surface temperatures only in the upper 50s. This activity could generate gusty winds for a few hours, but otherwise remain mostly below severe levels. ..Darrow.. 08/10/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a couple hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Some development of this system is
possible during the next several days while it moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. By early next week, the system is
forecast to move into a more stable environment, limiting additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 9 22:53:03 UTC 2024.

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE TTN TO 20 E ALB TO 15 WSW MPV. ..BROYLES..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...OKX...PHI...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-005-092340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MAC003-011-013-015-092340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE NJC003-013-031-039-092340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX PASSAIC UNION Read more

WW 617 TORNADO CT MA NJ NY PA VT 091725Z - 100200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of western Connecticut western Massachusetts parts of central and northern New Jersey eastern New York eastern Pennsylvania central and southern Vermont * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...As extra-tropical cyclone Debby continues moving northeastward across eastern New York this afternoon and into this evening, potential for a few tornadoes will accompany this system -- affecting areas as far east as western New England. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Rutland VT to 65 miles south of Monticello NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 616... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 18040. ...Goss Read more

MD 1875 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WY INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST UT/SOUTHEAST ID
Mesoscale Discussion 1875 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southern/central WY into extreme northeast UT/southeast ID Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092051Z - 092245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible from late afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of building cumulus are noted across parts of southern/central WY this afternoon, with a strong storm over far northern UT. While low-level moisture remains rather modest, a combination of diurnal heating and relatively steep lapse rates have resulted in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 500 J/kg across much of the region. Generally unidirectional wind profiles with moderate westerly midlevel flow are supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for modestly organized cells/clusters as storms mature. Initial storms could pose a nonzero hail threat, but one or more outflow-driven clusters may evolve with time, as storms move through a well-mixed environment. Steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for strong to locally severe gusts as convection spreads eastward from late afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Goss.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 41150838 41141054 41291092 41591169 42151169 42971069 43470985 43360752 43310709 42960589 42190559 41490554 41120557 41070616 41170738 41150838 Read more

MD 1876 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 617... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA
Mesoscale Discussion 1876 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern NY...southern VT...and western MA Concerning...Tornado Watch 617... Valid 092057Z - 092230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 617 continues. SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible across portions of Tornado Watch 617 in this evening. DISCUSSION...A band of low-topped thunderstorms is tracking eastward across portions of eastern NY this afternoon, though weak instability has generally limited updraft intensity thus far. However, very strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow/shear could still support locally damaging gusts if any updrafts within the line are able to mature. And, with around 400 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the convection, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ..Weinman.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 42307386 42597375 43197349 43647381 43747366 43797335 43607285 43327261 42627275 42147321 42107373 42307386 Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ABE TO 20 SSW GFL TO 35 SW SLK. ..BROYLES..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...OKX...PHI...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-005-092240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MAC003-011-013-015-092240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE NJC003-013-031-039-092240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX PASSAIC UNION Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions (notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions (notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions (notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions (notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions (notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions (notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions (notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions (notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions (notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more