Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more