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Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 230235 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 ...HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 110.1W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 110.1 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this westward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest and northwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected and Kristy could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 PM MST Tue Oct 22 the center of Kristy was located near 14.7, -110.1 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 230234 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.1W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.1W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.5N 112.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.2N 125.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 127.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.2N 131.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.6N 135.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms that occurred this afternoon near the TX Big Bend have waned and will further diminish shortly with acceleration of nocturnal cooling. Sporadic elevated thunderstorms associated with a dampening shortwave impulse moving into Lower MI appear to have finally ceased, with more rapid decaying of this impulse expected. A broader, upstream shortwave trough will further amplify into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This should strengthen forcing for ascent along and to the rearward side of a surface cold front sweeping east. Most models depict scant elevated buoyancy developing across parts of the U.P. of MI into northern WI/Lower MI. This may be adequate for very isolated thunderstorms as ascent strengthens later tonight, which appears to be supported by 23Z HRRR/RRFS runs. ..Grams.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms that occurred this afternoon near the TX Big Bend have waned and will further diminish shortly with acceleration of nocturnal cooling. Sporadic elevated thunderstorms associated with a dampening shortwave impulse moving into Lower MI appear to have finally ceased, with more rapid decaying of this impulse expected. A broader, upstream shortwave trough will further amplify into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This should strengthen forcing for ascent along and to the rearward side of a surface cold front sweeping east. Most models depict scant elevated buoyancy developing across parts of the U.P. of MI into northern WI/Lower MI. This may be adequate for very isolated thunderstorms as ascent strengthens later tonight, which appears to be supported by 23Z HRRR/RRFS runs. ..Grams.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms that occurred this afternoon near the TX Big Bend have waned and will further diminish shortly with acceleration of nocturnal cooling. Sporadic elevated thunderstorms associated with a dampening shortwave impulse moving into Lower MI appear to have finally ceased, with more rapid decaying of this impulse expected. A broader, upstream shortwave trough will further amplify into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This should strengthen forcing for ascent along and to the rearward side of a surface cold front sweeping east. Most models depict scant elevated buoyancy developing across parts of the U.P. of MI into northern WI/Lower MI. This may be adequate for very isolated thunderstorms as ascent strengthens later tonight, which appears to be supported by 23Z HRRR/RRFS runs. ..Grams.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms that occurred this afternoon near the TX Big Bend have waned and will further diminish shortly with acceleration of nocturnal cooling. Sporadic elevated thunderstorms associated with a dampening shortwave impulse moving into Lower MI appear to have finally ceased, with more rapid decaying of this impulse expected. A broader, upstream shortwave trough will further amplify into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This should strengthen forcing for ascent along and to the rearward side of a surface cold front sweeping east. Most models depict scant elevated buoyancy developing across parts of the U.P. of MI into northern WI/Lower MI. This may be adequate for very isolated thunderstorms as ascent strengthens later tonight, which appears to be supported by 23Z HRRR/RRFS runs. ..Grams.. 10/23/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Kristy, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

After three water main breaks within a week, and five since Oct. 9, Cape Girardeau’s old water system, drought and hydrant testing contributed to the breaks. Drought frequently causes stress on the water lines when it causes the soil to contract and shift. The hydrant testing may also be a stressor on the pipes. Some of the older cast iron pipes in Cape Girardeau date back to the 1890s. Southeast Missourian (Cape Girardeau, Mo.), Oct 22, 2024

Hopkinton water users were asked to refrain from any unnecessary water use. Groundwater levels were continuing to fall with the absence of rain, limiting pumping capacity. Water quality was also affected with some discoloration being observed. Newsweek (N.Y.), Oct 22, 2024

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 22 22:14:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 22 22:14:01 UTC 2024.

A sheep farmer in Augusta County spent from $150 to $200 weekly feeding her sheep when there were no second or third cuttings of hay. Dry weather in June, combined with high nighttime temperatures kept the corn from pollinating to produce an ear. Virginia Mercury (Richmond, Va.), Oct 21, 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 20:55:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 21:22:57 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 222053 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 Recent satellite and ASCAT data show Kristy has strengthened significantly over the last six hours. Satellite imagery shows persistent convection starting to wrap around a potential inner core, with high-level cirrus clouds beginning to clear out, revealing a developing eye. The ASCAT pass from 1618z showed a robust wind field, with a max wind retrieval of 53 kt. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates also concur with these observations, with T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB at 18 UTC. Given the improvement on satellite since that time, the initial intensity is now set at the upper-end of these estimates at 65 kt, making Kristy a hurricane. Kristy continues to move just north of due west this afternoon as it skirts along the periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge. Current motion is set at 275/16 kt and this westward motion should continue for the next couple of days. The cyclone will begin to track poleward starting this weekend around 60-72 hours as a mid-level trough impinges on the ridge. Uncertainty increases by that time given differences in the global models as to the evolution of the synoptic pattern. As such, the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the previous one over the next couple of days and is just a little to the south of the previous forecast track thereafter. The intensity forecast remains quite bullish, with rapid intensification expected within the next 12-24 hours as Kristy encounters a very favorable environment as indicated by the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS guidance. The latter aid also indicates a 40 percent chance of a 40 kt increase in intensity in 24 hours, nearly ten times the climatological average. The latest NHC forecast will explicitly show Kristy intensifying up to 100 kt major hurricane intensity in 24 h, with a peak intensity of 115 kt at 60 h. After 60-72 h, Kristy will encounter a more hostile environment, with increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures which will likely weaken the cyclone by the end of the forecast. Kristy is likely to become post-tropical in 120 h as it loses convective organization. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 14.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D3 - Thursday. A period of Elevated to Critical winds and relative humidity will be possible in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Recent rainfall has left fuels in this region less receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D6 - Sunday into D7 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Areas across southern Arizona will remain dry and may see a period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions on D7 - Monday. This area may need highlights as confidence increases in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D3 - Thursday. A period of Elevated to Critical winds and relative humidity will be possible in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Recent rainfall has left fuels in this region less receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D6 - Sunday into D7 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Areas across southern Arizona will remain dry and may see a period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions on D7 - Monday. This area may need highlights as confidence increases in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D3 - Thursday. A period of Elevated to Critical winds and relative humidity will be possible in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Recent rainfall has left fuels in this region less receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D6 - Sunday into D7 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Areas across southern Arizona will remain dry and may see a period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions on D7 - Monday. This area may need highlights as confidence increases in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D3 - Thursday. A period of Elevated to Critical winds and relative humidity will be possible in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Recent rainfall has left fuels in this region less receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D6 - Sunday into D7 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Areas across southern Arizona will remain dry and may see a period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions on D7 - Monday. This area may need highlights as confidence increases in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D3 - Thursday. A period of Elevated to Critical winds and relative humidity will be possible in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Recent rainfall has left fuels in this region less receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D6 - Sunday into D7 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Areas across southern Arizona will remain dry and may see a period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions on D7 - Monday. This area may need highlights as confidence increases in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more