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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across northern NV into adjacent portions of northwest UT and southern ID. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central ID as of 15 UTC. The dry boundary layer sampled by the 12 UTC BOI sounding should promote the potential for dry thunderstorms, though recent MRMS rain rate estimates and sparse rainfall measurements suggest a mixture of dry and wet thunderstorms is most likely ongoing, which should continue into the afternoon. Given a handful of fire reports and sporadic wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours, fuels should generally remain receptive to new dry-lightning fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across northern NV into adjacent portions of northwest UT and southern ID. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central ID as of 15 UTC. The dry boundary layer sampled by the 12 UTC BOI sounding should promote the potential for dry thunderstorms, though recent MRMS rain rate estimates and sparse rainfall measurements suggest a mixture of dry and wet thunderstorms is most likely ongoing, which should continue into the afternoon. Given a handful of fire reports and sporadic wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours, fuels should generally remain receptive to new dry-lightning fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across northern NV into adjacent portions of northwest UT and southern ID. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central ID as of 15 UTC. The dry boundary layer sampled by the 12 UTC BOI sounding should promote the potential for dry thunderstorms, though recent MRMS rain rate estimates and sparse rainfall measurements suggest a mixture of dry and wet thunderstorms is most likely ongoing, which should continue into the afternoon. Given a handful of fire reports and sporadic wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours, fuels should generally remain receptive to new dry-lightning fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across northern NV into adjacent portions of northwest UT and southern ID. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central ID as of 15 UTC. The dry boundary layer sampled by the 12 UTC BOI sounding should promote the potential for dry thunderstorms, though recent MRMS rain rate estimates and sparse rainfall measurements suggest a mixture of dry and wet thunderstorms is most likely ongoing, which should continue into the afternoon. Given a handful of fire reports and sporadic wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours, fuels should generally remain receptive to new dry-lightning fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across northern NV into adjacent portions of northwest UT and southern ID. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central ID as of 15 UTC. The dry boundary layer sampled by the 12 UTC BOI sounding should promote the potential for dry thunderstorms, though recent MRMS rain rate estimates and sparse rainfall measurements suggest a mixture of dry and wet thunderstorms is most likely ongoing, which should continue into the afternoon. Given a handful of fire reports and sporadic wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours, fuels should generally remain receptive to new dry-lightning fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across northern NV into adjacent portions of northwest UT and southern ID. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central ID as of 15 UTC. The dry boundary layer sampled by the 12 UTC BOI sounding should promote the potential for dry thunderstorms, though recent MRMS rain rate estimates and sparse rainfall measurements suggest a mixture of dry and wet thunderstorms is most likely ongoing, which should continue into the afternoon. Given a handful of fire reports and sporadic wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours, fuels should generally remain receptive to new dry-lightning fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across northern NV into adjacent portions of northwest UT and southern ID. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central ID as of 15 UTC. The dry boundary layer sampled by the 12 UTC BOI sounding should promote the potential for dry thunderstorms, though recent MRMS rain rate estimates and sparse rainfall measurements suggest a mixture of dry and wet thunderstorms is most likely ongoing, which should continue into the afternoon. Given a handful of fire reports and sporadic wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours, fuels should generally remain receptive to new dry-lightning fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains and extending into the eastern Great Basin. ...High Plains into the eastern Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a flattened mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S., with a belt of enhanced flow extending from northern CA east across the central Rockies and into the Lower Great Lakes. A 500-mb speed max will move across ID eastward into WY/northern CO during the period. In the low levels, a lee trough will act as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon across the High Plains. Showers/thunderstorms over the northern part of the southern High Plains will gradually push east into OK during the day. Relatively cool and a stable airmass sampled this morning over the central Great Plains [reference the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob (nearly nil buoyancy)] may serve as a relative minima in storm coverage/intensity later today. Yet, strong heating and the development of steep lapse rates are forecast to contribute to weak buoyancy later this afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) over the High Plains westward into parts of the eastern Great Basin. Inverted-V profiles over UT eastward into northern CO/southern WY will favor localized severe gusts with the widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings over the High Plains westward into the north-central Rockies indicate some storm organization may occur with the stronger updrafts (i.e., supercell structure). Marginally severe hail/gusts are the primary concerns with this activity. Tonight, the LLJ is forecast to intensify over the TX Panhandle into western OK. Scattered elevated storms will probably focus on the northern edge of greater instability within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes an eastward expansion of low-severe probabilities into OK at this time. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains and extending into the eastern Great Basin. ...High Plains into the eastern Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a flattened mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S., with a belt of enhanced flow extending from northern CA east across the central Rockies and into the Lower Great Lakes. A 500-mb speed max will move across ID eastward into WY/northern CO during the period. In the low levels, a lee trough will act as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon across the High Plains. Showers/thunderstorms over the northern part of the southern High Plains will gradually push east into OK during the day. Relatively cool and a stable airmass sampled this morning over the central Great Plains [reference the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob (nearly nil buoyancy)] may serve as a relative minima in storm coverage/intensity later today. Yet, strong heating and the development of steep lapse rates are forecast to contribute to weak buoyancy later this afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) over the High Plains westward into parts of the eastern Great Basin. Inverted-V profiles over UT eastward into northern CO/southern WY will favor localized severe gusts with the widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings over the High Plains westward into the north-central Rockies indicate some storm organization may occur with the stronger updrafts (i.e., supercell structure). Marginally severe hail/gusts are the primary concerns with this activity. Tonight, the LLJ is forecast to intensify over the TX Panhandle into western OK. Scattered elevated storms will probably focus on the northern edge of greater instability within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes an eastward expansion of low-severe probabilities into OK at this time. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains and extending into the eastern Great Basin. ...High Plains into the eastern Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a flattened mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S., with a belt of enhanced flow extending from northern CA east across the central Rockies and into the Lower Great Lakes. A 500-mb speed max will move across ID eastward into WY/northern CO during the period. In the low levels, a lee trough will act as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon across the High Plains. Showers/thunderstorms over the northern part of the southern High Plains will gradually push east into OK during the day. Relatively cool and a stable airmass sampled this morning over the central Great Plains [reference the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob (nearly nil buoyancy)] may serve as a relative minima in storm coverage/intensity later today. Yet, strong heating and the development of steep lapse rates are forecast to contribute to weak buoyancy later this afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) over the High Plains westward into parts of the eastern Great Basin. Inverted-V profiles over UT eastward into northern CO/southern WY will favor localized severe gusts with the widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings over the High Plains westward into the north-central Rockies indicate some storm organization may occur with the stronger updrafts (i.e., supercell structure). Marginally severe hail/gusts are the primary concerns with this activity. Tonight, the LLJ is forecast to intensify over the TX Panhandle into western OK. Scattered elevated storms will probably focus on the northern edge of greater instability within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes an eastward expansion of low-severe probabilities into OK at this time. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains and extending into the eastern Great Basin. ...High Plains into the eastern Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a flattened mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S., with a belt of enhanced flow extending from northern CA east across the central Rockies and into the Lower Great Lakes. A 500-mb speed max will move across ID eastward into WY/northern CO during the period. In the low levels, a lee trough will act as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon across the High Plains. Showers/thunderstorms over the northern part of the southern High Plains will gradually push east into OK during the day. Relatively cool and a stable airmass sampled this morning over the central Great Plains [reference the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob (nearly nil buoyancy)] may serve as a relative minima in storm coverage/intensity later today. Yet, strong heating and the development of steep lapse rates are forecast to contribute to weak buoyancy later this afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) over the High Plains westward into parts of the eastern Great Basin. Inverted-V profiles over UT eastward into northern CO/southern WY will favor localized severe gusts with the widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings over the High Plains westward into the north-central Rockies indicate some storm organization may occur with the stronger updrafts (i.e., supercell structure). Marginally severe hail/gusts are the primary concerns with this activity. Tonight, the LLJ is forecast to intensify over the TX Panhandle into western OK. Scattered elevated storms will probably focus on the northern edge of greater instability within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes an eastward expansion of low-severe probabilities into OK at this time. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains and extending into the eastern Great Basin. ...High Plains into the eastern Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a flattened mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S., with a belt of enhanced flow extending from northern CA east across the central Rockies and into the Lower Great Lakes. A 500-mb speed max will move across ID eastward into WY/northern CO during the period. In the low levels, a lee trough will act as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon across the High Plains. Showers/thunderstorms over the northern part of the southern High Plains will gradually push east into OK during the day. Relatively cool and a stable airmass sampled this morning over the central Great Plains [reference the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob (nearly nil buoyancy)] may serve as a relative minima in storm coverage/intensity later today. Yet, strong heating and the development of steep lapse rates are forecast to contribute to weak buoyancy later this afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) over the High Plains westward into parts of the eastern Great Basin. Inverted-V profiles over UT eastward into northern CO/southern WY will favor localized severe gusts with the widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings over the High Plains westward into the north-central Rockies indicate some storm organization may occur with the stronger updrafts (i.e., supercell structure). Marginally severe hail/gusts are the primary concerns with this activity. Tonight, the LLJ is forecast to intensify over the TX Panhandle into western OK. Scattered elevated storms will probably focus on the northern edge of greater instability within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes an eastward expansion of low-severe probabilities into OK at this time. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/10/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased but remain disorganized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 150
miles off the coast of southern Mexico. Some development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. By early next week, the system
is forecast to move into a more stable environment, limiting
additional development. Regardless of formation, this system
could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of coastal southern and
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging should generally prevail over parts of the Rockies into the Plains through much of the extended forecast period. Periodic suppression of the upper ridge should occur as multiple weak mid-level perturbations move eastward across the northern/central portions of the CONUS. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential may exist across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest with any of these low-amplitude shortwave troughs. For Day 4/Tuesday, the best severe potential may focus over the northern/central High Plains along/east of a weak surface trough. However, both instability and shear appear too limited to include a 15% severe area. Details on convective evolution become less clear from midweek onward. But, there are some indications that a shortwave trough may move across parts of the Plains into the Midwest/mid MS Valley. Even so, both predictability and forecast strength/amplitude of this feature remain far too low for any severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging should generally prevail over parts of the Rockies into the Plains through much of the extended forecast period. Periodic suppression of the upper ridge should occur as multiple weak mid-level perturbations move eastward across the northern/central portions of the CONUS. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential may exist across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest with any of these low-amplitude shortwave troughs. For Day 4/Tuesday, the best severe potential may focus over the northern/central High Plains along/east of a weak surface trough. However, both instability and shear appear too limited to include a 15% severe area. Details on convective evolution become less clear from midweek onward. But, there are some indications that a shortwave trough may move across parts of the Plains into the Midwest/mid MS Valley. Even so, both predictability and forecast strength/amplitude of this feature remain far too low for any severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging should generally prevail over parts of the Rockies into the Plains through much of the extended forecast period. Periodic suppression of the upper ridge should occur as multiple weak mid-level perturbations move eastward across the northern/central portions of the CONUS. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential may exist across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest with any of these low-amplitude shortwave troughs. For Day 4/Tuesday, the best severe potential may focus over the northern/central High Plains along/east of a weak surface trough. However, both instability and shear appear too limited to include a 15% severe area. Details on convective evolution become less clear from midweek onward. But, there are some indications that a shortwave trough may move across parts of the Plains into the Midwest/mid MS Valley. Even so, both predictability and forecast strength/amplitude of this feature remain far too low for any severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging should generally prevail over parts of the Rockies into the Plains through much of the extended forecast period. Periodic suppression of the upper ridge should occur as multiple weak mid-level perturbations move eastward across the northern/central portions of the CONUS. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential may exist across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest with any of these low-amplitude shortwave troughs. For Day 4/Tuesday, the best severe potential may focus over the northern/central High Plains along/east of a weak surface trough. However, both instability and shear appear too limited to include a 15% severe area. Details on convective evolution become less clear from midweek onward. But, there are some indications that a shortwave trough may move across parts of the Plains into the Midwest/mid MS Valley. Even so, both predictability and forecast strength/amplitude of this feature remain far too low for any severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging should generally prevail over parts of the Rockies into the Plains through much of the extended forecast period. Periodic suppression of the upper ridge should occur as multiple weak mid-level perturbations move eastward across the northern/central portions of the CONUS. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential may exist across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest with any of these low-amplitude shortwave troughs. For Day 4/Tuesday, the best severe potential may focus over the northern/central High Plains along/east of a weak surface trough. However, both instability and shear appear too limited to include a 15% severe area. Details on convective evolution become less clear from midweek onward. But, there are some indications that a shortwave trough may move across parts of the Plains into the Midwest/mid MS Valley. Even so, both predictability and forecast strength/amplitude of this feature remain far too low for any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should prevail over much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. Still, weak low-level convergence along a surface lee trough, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should encourage at least isolated convective development by late Monday afternoon across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Weak low-level flow should gradually veer to westerly and modestly strengthen with height though mid/upper levels across this region. Related deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, which should generally limit updraft organization. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with initially high-based cores, the potential for a more organized severe threat currently appears too low to include any severe probabilities. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Elevated thunderstorms associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough and attendant low-level warm advection may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe as it spreads eastward and slowly weakens through the day. In its wake, moderate to locally strong instability may develop along/near a front that should be draped east to west somewhere from the Ozarks into southern KS, OK, and the TX Panhandle. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain minimal across much of this region behind the departing shortwave trough. Still, if thunderstorms can form along the front, they could produce some hail and strong/gusty winds given ample instability and modest deep-layer shear. However, this potential remains too conditional to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2024 Read more