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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...North-central States... Primary thunder potential should occur through about midday in association with a shortwave trough progressing from the Mid-MO Valley to the central Great Lakes. Despite dampening of this wave, sufficient forcing for ascent amid weak elevated buoyancy should yield at least isolated storms centered on the Mid-MS Valley. Modest cloud-bearing shear within the high-based/low-topped convective profile should mitigate severe potential. Farther west-northwest, an upstream shortwave trough will amplify across the Prairie Provinces into the northern Upper Midwest. Sporadic lightning flashes may occur within the attendant warm conveyor ahead of this wave, during the morning into the afternoon. Scant elevated buoyancy will limit storm coverage. Surface-based thunderstorms are unlikely at peak heating along the cold front sweeping east, as boundary-layer moisture is expected to be inadequate for supporting lightning production. ...TX Trans-Pecos... Despite a very weak tropospheric flow regime, a plume of modestly enriched lower-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated, pulse thunderstorms during the late afternoon over the higher terrain near the Big Bend. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...North-central States... Primary thunder potential should occur through about midday in association with a shortwave trough progressing from the Mid-MO Valley to the central Great Lakes. Despite dampening of this wave, sufficient forcing for ascent amid weak elevated buoyancy should yield at least isolated storms centered on the Mid-MS Valley. Modest cloud-bearing shear within the high-based/low-topped convective profile should mitigate severe potential. Farther west-northwest, an upstream shortwave trough will amplify across the Prairie Provinces into the northern Upper Midwest. Sporadic lightning flashes may occur within the attendant warm conveyor ahead of this wave, during the morning into the afternoon. Scant elevated buoyancy will limit storm coverage. Surface-based thunderstorms are unlikely at peak heating along the cold front sweeping east, as boundary-layer moisture is expected to be inadequate for supporting lightning production. ...TX Trans-Pecos... Despite a very weak tropospheric flow regime, a plume of modestly enriched lower-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated, pulse thunderstorms during the late afternoon over the higher terrain near the Big Bend. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/22/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kristy, located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Murfreesboro has a mandatory ban on outdoor burning within city limits due to drought and the absence of rain in the forecast. The Murfreesboro Fire Rescue Department fire marshal issued the ban which will remain in effect until further notice and will not end apart from a significant amount of rainfall. Rutherford Source (Franklin, Tenn.), Oct 21, 2024

As drought worsened and forecasts called for continued dry conditions, more Oklahoma counties were adopting burn bans. On Oct. 21, Tulsa, Wagoner, Creek and Rogers counties enacted burn bans, bringing the total number of counties with burn bans to 30. The Tulsa burn ban took effect for seven days and could be extended. KRMG AM-740 & FM-102.3 (Tulsa, Okla.), Oct 21, 2024

MD 2157 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN OK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 2157 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0913 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Areas affected...Western OK into parts of central/eastern KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220213Z - 220345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms may persist through late evening. DISCUSSION...There has been some recent increase in storm coverage/intensity from western OK into central KS this evening, possibly in response to strengthening low-level warm advection (as inferred from the KVNX and KICT VWPs) to the south/east of a mid/upper-level cyclone near the NE/KS border. The window for surface-based development is likely limited due to increasing MLCINH with time and eastward extent, though a narrow zone of MUCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg could support a few stronger elevated storms through the late evening, in the presence of favorable deep-layer shear. Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Guyer.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 34829978 35019980 35329969 35949938 38149811 39689772 39769671 39119662 37659697 36889728 35859829 35039905 34659960 34829978 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 02:44:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 03:28:56 GMT

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220242 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 Kristy is becoming better organized this evening. Bursts of deep convection are wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation with upper-level outflow also present in this region. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range between 35 to 53 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is raised to 40 kt, closest to the UW-CIMSS DMINT objective Dvorak estimate. The tropical storm is heading westward at 270/14 kt. This general motion should continue through Thursday while Kristy moves along the southern side of a subtropical ridge. By Friday and Saturday, the storm will reach a weakness in the ridge caused by a cutoff low over the north Pacific and gradually turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The latest track forecast is quite similar to the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus aids. The fragmented convection seen on satellite infrared imagery seems to indicate that there is a dry air intrusion possibly slowing Kristy's present organization. However, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are quickly becoming more conducive for significant to rapid intensification. Statistical guidance from SHIPS-RII is showing a high chance (72 percent) of 25 kt of strengthening in 24 h. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast now explicitly forecasts this increase, making Kristy a hurricane on Tuesday and nudging up the peak to 100 kt in 60 h. On Friday and Saturday, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and induce a weakening trend. This intensity forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope, between the HCCA and the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.7N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220242 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 45 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 39(39) 50(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 42(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 76(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 5(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 82(86) 2(88) X(88) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 2(60) X(60) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 1(38) X(38) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 59(72) 1(73) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) X(41) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 50(55) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220241 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220241 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY HEADING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 103.3W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.3 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days and Kristy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY HEADING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 PM CST Mon Oct 21 the center of Kristy was located near 13.7, -103.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts may persist for a few more hours from parts of southern Nebraska to western Oklahoma. ...NE/KS/OK... Primary severe threat should remain in the form of marginal hail through about 03-04Z before further waning in the late evening. Low to mid-level wind fields surrounding a compact shortwave trough over south-central NE are expected to dampen somewhat as the wave tracks into IA overnight. More robust convection has been confined near the north-central KS/south-central NE border area. This activity will spread away from the nearly stationary surface-based instability plume, as it shifts eastward during the next couple hours. Convection farther south has struggled to greatly intensify ahead of the dryline, and the temporal window for more robust development to occur is closing. Overnight, an arc of decaying elevated convection is largely anticipated as activity spreads into parts of IA/MO. ..Grams.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts may persist for a few more hours from parts of southern Nebraska to western Oklahoma. ...NE/KS/OK... Primary severe threat should remain in the form of marginal hail through about 03-04Z before further waning in the late evening. Low to mid-level wind fields surrounding a compact shortwave trough over south-central NE are expected to dampen somewhat as the wave tracks into IA overnight. More robust convection has been confined near the north-central KS/south-central NE border area. This activity will spread away from the nearly stationary surface-based instability plume, as it shifts eastward during the next couple hours. Convection farther south has struggled to greatly intensify ahead of the dryline, and the temporal window for more robust development to occur is closing. Overnight, an arc of decaying elevated convection is largely anticipated as activity spreads into parts of IA/MO. ..Grams.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts may persist for a few more hours from parts of southern Nebraska to western Oklahoma. ...NE/KS/OK... Primary severe threat should remain in the form of marginal hail through about 03-04Z before further waning in the late evening. Low to mid-level wind fields surrounding a compact shortwave trough over south-central NE are expected to dampen somewhat as the wave tracks into IA overnight. More robust convection has been confined near the north-central KS/south-central NE border area. This activity will spread away from the nearly stationary surface-based instability plume, as it shifts eastward during the next couple hours. Convection farther south has struggled to greatly intensify ahead of the dryline, and the temporal window for more robust development to occur is closing. Overnight, an arc of decaying elevated convection is largely anticipated as activity spreads into parts of IA/MO. ..Grams.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts may persist for a few more hours from parts of southern Nebraska to western Oklahoma. ...NE/KS/OK... Primary severe threat should remain in the form of marginal hail through about 03-04Z before further waning in the late evening. Low to mid-level wind fields surrounding a compact shortwave trough over south-central NE are expected to dampen somewhat as the wave tracks into IA overnight. More robust convection has been confined near the north-central KS/south-central NE border area. This activity will spread away from the nearly stationary surface-based instability plume, as it shifts eastward during the next couple hours. Convection farther south has struggled to greatly intensify ahead of the dryline, and the temporal window for more robust development to occur is closing. Overnight, an arc of decaying elevated convection is largely anticipated as activity spreads into parts of IA/MO. ..Grams.. 10/22/2024 Read more

WW 0692 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 692 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DDC TO 40 SSW RSL TO 30 WNW RSL TO 40 NNE HLC TO 15 S LBF. ..DEAN..10/22/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 692 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-033-047-051-097-141-145-147-151-163-165-167-183-185- 220140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS KIOWA OSBORNE PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SMITH STAFFORD NEC061-065-073-083-137-220140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN PHELPS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 692 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 212010Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central and Northern Kansas Southern Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to redevelop across the region through late afternoon, initially across northwest/west-central Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Mccook NE to 30 miles southwest of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Guyer Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212326
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed
Tropical Storm Kristy, located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

MD 2156 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NE INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 2156 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southwest/south-central NE into west-central KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 692... Valid 212235Z - 220000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 692 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado will continue into early evening. DISCUSSION...Strong storms have developed from southwest/south-central NE into north-central KS, immediately to the east/northeast of a compact mid/upper-level cyclone. A narrow zone of modest instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) remains in place along/east of a dryline, with sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization. Cool temperatures aloft will continue to support a threat of sporadic hail with any marginal supercell structures, along with potential for isolated strong to severe gusts. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, both with any persistent supercells within the narrow warm sector, and also in closer proximity to a weak surface low from northwest KS into southwest NE, where there is some overlap between ambient surface vorticity and steeper low-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Farther south into south-central KS, deep convection has struggled to mature thus far. However, cumulus has increased over the last hour, and a narrow zone of near 60 F dewpoints is supporting locally greater buoyancy (with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg). A supercell or two could evolve within this region into early evening, with some threat for hail, localized severe gusts, and a tornado. Farther east, elevated convection continues to develop near the eastern edge of WW 692. Continued moistening above the surface will maintain MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and an isolated hail threat could eventually spread east of WW 692 with time, though it remains uncertain if any watch expansion to the east will be needed in the short term. ..Dean/Guyer.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40730009 40589942 40399862 40029808 39209786 37819801 37249834 37109876 37099921 37139960 37869929 38279932 39049996 39810067 40360084 40730009 Read more