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WW 0692 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 692 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N DDC TO 50 SW RSL TO 40 SSE HLC TO 5 ESE HLC TO 15 WNW HLC TO 50 E GLD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156 ..DEAN..10/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 692 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-033-039-047-051-065-097-137-141-145-147-151-153-163- 165-167-179-183-185-220040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS GRAHAM KIOWA NORTON OSBORNE PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT RAWLINS ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD NEC061-063-065-073-083-087-137-145-220040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN HITCHCOCK PHELPS RED WILLOW Read more

WW 692 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 212010Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central and Northern Kansas Southern Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to redevelop across the region through late afternoon, initially across northwest/west-central Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Mccook NE to 30 miles southwest of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Guyer Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 21 22:23:13 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D4 - Thursday. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D7 - Sunday into D8 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D4 - Thursday. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D7 - Sunday into D8 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D4 - Thursday. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D7 - Sunday into D8 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D4 - Thursday. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D7 - Sunday into D8 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D4 - Thursday. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D7 - Sunday into D8 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D4 - Thursday. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D7 - Sunday into D8 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D4 - Thursday. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D7 - Sunday into D8 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D4 - Thursday. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D7 - Sunday into D8 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D4 - Thursday. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D7 - Sunday into D8 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0692 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 692 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..10/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 692 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-033-039-047-051-063-065-097-135-137-141-145-147-151- 153-163-165-167-179-183-185-195-212240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS GOVE GRAHAM KIOWA NESS NORTON OSBORNE PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT RAWLINS ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD TREGO NEC061-063-065-073-083-087-137-145-212240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN HITCHCOCK PHELPS RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0692 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 692 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..10/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 692 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-033-039-047-051-063-065-097-135-137-141-145-147-151- 153-163-165-167-179-183-185-195-212240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS GOVE GRAHAM KIOWA NESS NORTON OSBORNE PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT RAWLINS ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD TREGO NEC061-063-065-073-083-087-137-145-212240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER HARLAN HITCHCOCK PHELPS RED WILLOW Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 20:47:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2024 21:29:05 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 212044 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 The low pressure system located offshore the southern coast of Mexico has quickly become better organized since last night based on available GOES-West imagery and wind-derived satellite data. An ASCAT wind pass from a few hours ago indicated that the surface circulation had become well-defined and sustained winds were already around 30-35 kt. Subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB and SAB at 18Z were T2.0 and T2.5, respectively. Based on these data, advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Kristy with an initial intensity of 35 kt. The initial motion of this tropical storm is westward at 270/15 kt. Kristy is expected to continue on this general motion during the next few days as is steered by broad subtropical ridge centered well west of Baja California. Late this week, Kristy will be approaching a weakness created by a large cutoff low over the North Pacific. This weakness should allow the tropical cyclone to turn to the northwest by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good agreement, especially early in the forecast period, and the initial forecast track follows the HCCA and TVCE models closely. Relatively low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures should allow Kristy to steadily gain strength over the next few days. The forecast calls for the tropical cyclone to become a hurricane on Wednesday. SHIPS guidance from both GFS and ECMWF suggest that the wind shear values will be less than 10 kt by midweek, while the sea-surface temperatures will be around 28-29 C. Such favorable conditions could favor significant strengthening once the inner-core becomes established. By Friday, Kristy will be crossing the 26 C isotherm and the global model guidance also indicates that the wind shear will also abruptly increase. Thus weakening is expected to begin between forecast days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 13.5N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 13.5N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 13.9N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 14.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 14.1N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 14.0N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 14.0N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Delgado/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 212043 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 57(58) 3(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 29(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 28(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 75(75) 4(79) X(79) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 3(47) X(47) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 69(72) 3(75) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 2(45) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/PAPIN

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 310 WTPZ32 KNHC 212043 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 102.0W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 102.0 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days and Kristy could become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Delgado/Papin

...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Mon Oct 21 the center of Kristy was located near 13.5, -102.0 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 212042 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.9N 107.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 113.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 55SE 45SW 65NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/PAPIN