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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 21 19:46:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211754
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates that a well-defined
surface circulation is forming with an area of low pressure located
a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system also
continues to become better organized. If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on this system as a tropical
depression or storm at 2 PM PDT. This system is forecast to move
westward at around 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. Additional
information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Delgado/Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more