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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024 Read more