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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REGION IN TEXT ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REGION IN TEXT ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REGION IN TEXT ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC REGION IN TEXT ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Ongoing drought and above-normal temperatures have depleted Lake Hefner, which is one of Oklahoma City’s main water sources. Consequently, the Army Corps of Engineers, with the Oklahoma City Water Utilities, approved the transfer of 16,000 acre-feet of water from Canton Lake to Lake Hefner that began Oct. 22. KOKH FOX 25 (Oklahoma City, Okla.), Oct 21, 2024

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and the Snake River Plains. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0691 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CVS TO 10 SW LVS TO 20 S TAD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154. ..GRAMS..10/21/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC007-009-019-021-033-037-047-059-210540- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX CURRY GUADALUPE HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0691 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW CVS TO 25 WSW LVS. ..GRAMS..10/21/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-210440- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2153 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691... FOR EASTERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 2153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NM Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691... Valid 210123Z - 210330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated large hail should persist for the next few hours across east-central to northeast New Mexico, with a brief tornado also possible in east-central New Mexico. DISCUSSION...Two primary corridors of thunderstorms are ongoing; one east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near the Raton Mesa, and the other south of the I-40 corridor in east-central NM. The northern storms should pose a continued threat of small to marginally severe hail of 0.75 to 1.25 inches, based on prior MRMS MESH signatures and presence of weak surface-based buoyancy plume. The discrete cells farther south have recently consolidated to two storms and these may gradually intensify over the next hour or so within a favorable supercell wind profile. FDX VWP data confirms an enlarged 0-1 km hodograph, beneath by strong southwesterly speed shear above 3 km. This could result in a sustained supercell being capable of a brief tornado, along with large hail from quarter to golf ball size through about 03-04Z. Thereafter, additional storms will probably increase in between the two separate regimes as low-level warm theta-e advection becomes maximized and a cluster mode dominates, while the boundary layer further cools. ..Grams.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37450359 37370295 34890284 34230293 33880371 33830426 33870470 34250495 35620520 36260486 36990419 37450359 Read more

WW 0691 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ROW TO 35 N 4CR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153. ..GRAMS..10/21/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-210340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0691 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE ROW TO 10 N 4CR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153. ..GRAMS..10/21/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-027-033-037-041-047-059-210240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING LINCOLN MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this evening. ...01z Update... Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings. ..Darrow.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this evening. ...01z Update... Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings. ..Darrow.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this evening. ...01z Update... Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings. ..Darrow.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this evening. ...01z Update... Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings. ..Darrow.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this evening. ...01z Update... Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings. ..Darrow.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this evening. ...01z Update... Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings. ..Darrow.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this evening. ...01z Update... Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings. ..Darrow.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this evening. ...01z Update... Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings. ..Darrow.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain capable of producing large hail and a couple of tornadoes across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this evening. ...01z Update... Upper low is finally ejecting northeast as strongest 500mb flow is now translating across northern NM. Weakening trough will advance into eastern CO/NM by 21/12z and this should maintain LLJ across the TX South Plains into western KS. While large-scale forcing will overspread much of the High Plains later tonight, robust updrafts should remain focused along an axis from near Roswell NM to southeast of Trinidad CO for the next several hours. This is due to the primary corridor of modest instability extending across eastern NM. While low-level moist/upslope flow continues across the southern High Plains, 00z soundings just downstream at MAF and AMA exhibit strong capping between 750-700mb. Current thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms, a few supercellular in nature, will persist across eastern NM this evening, then buoyancy will gradually wane and updrafts should slowly weaken. This activity will likely struggle to maintain significant intensity as it spreads toward the TX/OK Panhandle and southwest KS, per 00z soundings. ..Darrow.. 10/21/2024 Read more