Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should prevail over much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. Still, weak low-level convergence along a surface lee trough, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should encourage at least isolated convective development by late Monday afternoon across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Weak low-level flow should gradually veer to westerly and modestly strengthen with height though mid/upper levels across this region. Related deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, which should generally limit updraft organization. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with initially high-based cores, the potential for a more organized severe threat currently appears too low to include any severe probabilities. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Elevated thunderstorms associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough and attendant low-level warm advection may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe as it spreads eastward and slowly weakens through the day. In its wake, moderate to locally strong instability may develop along/near a front that should be draped east to west somewhere from the Ozarks into southern KS, OK, and the TX Panhandle. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain minimal across much of this region behind the departing shortwave trough. Still, if thunderstorms can form along the front, they could produce some hail and strong/gusty winds given ample instability and modest deep-layer shear. However, this potential remains too conditional to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should prevail over much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. Still, weak low-level convergence along a surface lee trough, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should encourage at least isolated convective development by late Monday afternoon across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Weak low-level flow should gradually veer to westerly and modestly strengthen with height though mid/upper levels across this region. Related deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, which should generally limit updraft organization. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with initially high-based cores, the potential for a more organized severe threat currently appears too low to include any severe probabilities. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Elevated thunderstorms associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough and attendant low-level warm advection may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe as it spreads eastward and slowly weakens through the day. In its wake, moderate to locally strong instability may develop along/near a front that should be draped east to west somewhere from the Ozarks into southern KS, OK, and the TX Panhandle. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain minimal across much of this region behind the departing shortwave trough. Still, if thunderstorms can form along the front, they could produce some hail and strong/gusty winds given ample instability and modest deep-layer shear. However, this potential remains too conditional to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should prevail over much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. Still, weak low-level convergence along a surface lee trough, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should encourage at least isolated convective development by late Monday afternoon across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Weak low-level flow should gradually veer to westerly and modestly strengthen with height though mid/upper levels across this region. Related deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, which should generally limit updraft organization. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with initially high-based cores, the potential for a more organized severe threat currently appears too low to include any severe probabilities. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Elevated thunderstorms associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough and attendant low-level warm advection may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe as it spreads eastward and slowly weakens through the day. In its wake, moderate to locally strong instability may develop along/near a front that should be draped east to west somewhere from the Ozarks into southern KS, OK, and the TX Panhandle. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain minimal across much of this region behind the departing shortwave trough. Still, if thunderstorms can form along the front, they could produce some hail and strong/gusty winds given ample instability and modest deep-layer shear. However, this potential remains too conditional to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Black Hills... Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing across parts of OK and southern KS at the start of the period Sunday morning, generally along and north of a surface front. This activity will likely be elevated and tied to warm/moist advection associated with a southerly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to diminish in coverage through the day as the low-level jet weakens. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development across this region in the vicinity of the front Sunday afternoon/evening remains unclear, as large-scale ascent will be nebulous/weak. While a conditional severe threat remains apparent, the lack of a convective signal in most guidance precludes introducing low severe probabilities across the southern Plains at this time. Farther north across the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along and east of a weak surface lee trough/front. This convection should also be aided by a modestly enhanced westerly mid-level jet moving eastward from the northern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains through Sunday evening. While low-level moisture should remain a bit more limited with northward extent across the central Plains, sufficient instability should be present as diurnal heating occurs and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support supercells with attendant threat for isolated large hail. But, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms could develop. Some chance for upscale growth into a bowing cluster appears possible Sunday evening/night across parts of the central Plains, mainly focused over southern SD into central NE. If this occurs, then severe wind gusts would become the primary severe threat. Given the potential severe hail/wind threat, a fairly broad Marginal Risk has been introduced across parts of the central Plains. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Black Hills... Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing across parts of OK and southern KS at the start of the period Sunday morning, generally along and north of a surface front. This activity will likely be elevated and tied to warm/moist advection associated with a southerly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to diminish in coverage through the day as the low-level jet weakens. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development across this region in the vicinity of the front Sunday afternoon/evening remains unclear, as large-scale ascent will be nebulous/weak. While a conditional severe threat remains apparent, the lack of a convective signal in most guidance precludes introducing low severe probabilities across the southern Plains at this time. Farther north across the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along and east of a weak surface lee trough/front. This convection should also be aided by a modestly enhanced westerly mid-level jet moving eastward from the northern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains through Sunday evening. While low-level moisture should remain a bit more limited with northward extent across the central Plains, sufficient instability should be present as diurnal heating occurs and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support supercells with attendant threat for isolated large hail. But, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms could develop. Some chance for upscale growth into a bowing cluster appears possible Sunday evening/night across parts of the central Plains, mainly focused over southern SD into central NE. If this occurs, then severe wind gusts would become the primary severe threat. Given the potential severe hail/wind threat, a fairly broad Marginal Risk has been introduced across parts of the central Plains. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Black Hills... Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing across parts of OK and southern KS at the start of the period Sunday morning, generally along and north of a surface front. This activity will likely be elevated and tied to warm/moist advection associated with a southerly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to diminish in coverage through the day as the low-level jet weakens. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development across this region in the vicinity of the front Sunday afternoon/evening remains unclear, as large-scale ascent will be nebulous/weak. While a conditional severe threat remains apparent, the lack of a convective signal in most guidance precludes introducing low severe probabilities across the southern Plains at this time. Farther north across the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along and east of a weak surface lee trough/front. This convection should also be aided by a modestly enhanced westerly mid-level jet moving eastward from the northern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains through Sunday evening. While low-level moisture should remain a bit more limited with northward extent across the central Plains, sufficient instability should be present as diurnal heating occurs and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support supercells with attendant threat for isolated large hail. But, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms could develop. Some chance for upscale growth into a bowing cluster appears possible Sunday evening/night across parts of the central Plains, mainly focused over southern SD into central NE. If this occurs, then severe wind gusts would become the primary severe threat. Given the potential severe hail/wind threat, a fairly broad Marginal Risk has been introduced across parts of the central Plains. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Black Hills... Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing across parts of OK and southern KS at the start of the period Sunday morning, generally along and north of a surface front. This activity will likely be elevated and tied to warm/moist advection associated with a southerly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to diminish in coverage through the day as the low-level jet weakens. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development across this region in the vicinity of the front Sunday afternoon/evening remains unclear, as large-scale ascent will be nebulous/weak. While a conditional severe threat remains apparent, the lack of a convective signal in most guidance precludes introducing low severe probabilities across the southern Plains at this time. Farther north across the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along and east of a weak surface lee trough/front. This convection should also be aided by a modestly enhanced westerly mid-level jet moving eastward from the northern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains through Sunday evening. While low-level moisture should remain a bit more limited with northward extent across the central Plains, sufficient instability should be present as diurnal heating occurs and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support supercells with attendant threat for isolated large hail. But, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms could develop. Some chance for upscale growth into a bowing cluster appears possible Sunday evening/night across parts of the central Plains, mainly focused over southern SD into central NE. If this occurs, then severe wind gusts would become the primary severe threat. Given the potential severe hail/wind threat, a fairly broad Marginal Risk has been introduced across parts of the central Plains. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains into southern Montana. ...High Plains into southern MT... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the next 36hr with a dominant upper anticyclone forecast to hold over southern NM/west TX region. The northern extent of this feature will be suppressed during the latter half of the period across the northern Rockies into western WY as a 500mb speed max increases/translates across ID into southwest WY. Even so, at the surface, lee trough is not forecast to be particularly strong but it will extend from southeast MT-eastern CO-TX Panhandle. Low-level trajectories east of this feature will be seasonally cool, originating from a continental high that will settle into/hold across KS. Net result should be limited surface heating across much of the central High Plains, and stronger heating/steeper low-level lapse rates will develop deeper into the high terrain. Latest model guidance does not permit strong buoyancy to develop as moisture will be somewhat limited across this region. Primary concern for robust convection will be with updrafts that evolve ahead of the aforementioned short-wave trough. This feature will encourage some organization, but the absence of stronger buoyancy should limit severe coverage. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the primary concerns. Late in the period, the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS. This may contribute to a more organized, marginally severe, cluster that will propagate into northern OK within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains into southern Montana. ...High Plains into southern MT... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the next 36hr with a dominant upper anticyclone forecast to hold over southern NM/west TX region. The northern extent of this feature will be suppressed during the latter half of the period across the northern Rockies into western WY as a 500mb speed max increases/translates across ID into southwest WY. Even so, at the surface, lee trough is not forecast to be particularly strong but it will extend from southeast MT-eastern CO-TX Panhandle. Low-level trajectories east of this feature will be seasonally cool, originating from a continental high that will settle into/hold across KS. Net result should be limited surface heating across much of the central High Plains, and stronger heating/steeper low-level lapse rates will develop deeper into the high terrain. Latest model guidance does not permit strong buoyancy to develop as moisture will be somewhat limited across this region. Primary concern for robust convection will be with updrafts that evolve ahead of the aforementioned short-wave trough. This feature will encourage some organization, but the absence of stronger buoyancy should limit severe coverage. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the primary concerns. Late in the period, the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS. This may contribute to a more organized, marginally severe, cluster that will propagate into northern OK within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains into southern Montana. ...High Plains into southern MT... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the next 36hr with a dominant upper anticyclone forecast to hold over southern NM/west TX region. The northern extent of this feature will be suppressed during the latter half of the period across the northern Rockies into western WY as a 500mb speed max increases/translates across ID into southwest WY. Even so, at the surface, lee trough is not forecast to be particularly strong but it will extend from southeast MT-eastern CO-TX Panhandle. Low-level trajectories east of this feature will be seasonally cool, originating from a continental high that will settle into/hold across KS. Net result should be limited surface heating across much of the central High Plains, and stronger heating/steeper low-level lapse rates will develop deeper into the high terrain. Latest model guidance does not permit strong buoyancy to develop as moisture will be somewhat limited across this region. Primary concern for robust convection will be with updrafts that evolve ahead of the aforementioned short-wave trough. This feature will encourage some organization, but the absence of stronger buoyancy should limit severe coverage. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the primary concerns. Late in the period, the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS. This may contribute to a more organized, marginally severe, cluster that will propagate into northern OK within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains into southern Montana. ...High Plains into southern MT... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the next 36hr with a dominant upper anticyclone forecast to hold over southern NM/west TX region. The northern extent of this feature will be suppressed during the latter half of the period across the northern Rockies into western WY as a 500mb speed max increases/translates across ID into southwest WY. Even so, at the surface, lee trough is not forecast to be particularly strong but it will extend from southeast MT-eastern CO-TX Panhandle. Low-level trajectories east of this feature will be seasonally cool, originating from a continental high that will settle into/hold across KS. Net result should be limited surface heating across much of the central High Plains, and stronger heating/steeper low-level lapse rates will develop deeper into the high terrain. Latest model guidance does not permit strong buoyancy to develop as moisture will be somewhat limited across this region. Primary concern for robust convection will be with updrafts that evolve ahead of the aforementioned short-wave trough. This feature will encourage some organization, but the absence of stronger buoyancy should limit severe coverage. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the primary concerns. Late in the period, the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS. This may contribute to a more organized, marginally severe, cluster that will propagate into northern OK within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/10/2024 Read more

161
ABPZ20 KNHC 100524
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of
the coast of southern Mexico. Some development of this system is
possible during the next several days while it moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. By early next week, the system is
forecast to move into a more stable environment, limiting additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin