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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over IA/MO will continue eastward toward Lower MI/IN/OH and lose amplitude, while phasing gradually with an upstream trough now over MT. Isolated, elevated thunderstorms will be possible this morning across the middle MS Valley in the zone of ascent. Weak buoyancy and ascent will come out of phase by later this afternoon into tonight, when the threat for thunderstorms will diminish. Farther north, weak convection and isolated lightning flashes may occur across northeast MN in a band of ascent and minimal buoyancy along a cold front this afternoon/evening. Elsewhere, lingering low-level moisture, a subtle midlevel trough, and surface heating over higher terrain could support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over IA/MO will continue eastward toward Lower MI/IN/OH and lose amplitude, while phasing gradually with an upstream trough now over MT. Isolated, elevated thunderstorms will be possible this morning across the middle MS Valley in the zone of ascent. Weak buoyancy and ascent will come out of phase by later this afternoon into tonight, when the threat for thunderstorms will diminish. Farther north, weak convection and isolated lightning flashes may occur across northeast MN in a band of ascent and minimal buoyancy along a cold front this afternoon/evening. Elsewhere, lingering low-level moisture, a subtle midlevel trough, and surface heating over higher terrain could support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over IA/MO will continue eastward toward Lower MI/IN/OH and lose amplitude, while phasing gradually with an upstream trough now over MT. Isolated, elevated thunderstorms will be possible this morning across the middle MS Valley in the zone of ascent. Weak buoyancy and ascent will come out of phase by later this afternoon into tonight, when the threat for thunderstorms will diminish. Farther north, weak convection and isolated lightning flashes may occur across northeast MN in a band of ascent and minimal buoyancy along a cold front this afternoon/evening. Elsewhere, lingering low-level moisture, a subtle midlevel trough, and surface heating over higher terrain could support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/22/2024 Read more

310
ABPZ20 KNHC 221120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kristy, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Friday to D7/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D8. This may result in limited inland moisture and instability Monday/D7 and Tuesday D8, particularly if the trough follows some of the more progressive guidance. However, if return flow continues for a longer period before the primary trough ejects, a greater severe weather threat is possible, but it would likely be beyond Tuesday/D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Friday to D7/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D8. This may result in limited inland moisture and instability Monday/D7 and Tuesday D8, particularly if the trough follows some of the more progressive guidance. However, if return flow continues for a longer period before the primary trough ejects, a greater severe weather threat is possible, but it would likely be beyond Tuesday/D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Friday to D7/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D8. This may result in limited inland moisture and instability Monday/D7 and Tuesday D8, particularly if the trough follows some of the more progressive guidance. However, if return flow continues for a longer period before the primary trough ejects, a greater severe weather threat is possible, but it would likely be beyond Tuesday/D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Friday to D7/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D8. This may result in limited inland moisture and instability Monday/D7 and Tuesday D8, particularly if the trough follows some of the more progressive guidance. However, if return flow continues for a longer period before the primary trough ejects, a greater severe weather threat is possible, but it would likely be beyond Tuesday/D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Friday to D7/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D8. This may result in limited inland moisture and instability Monday/D7 and Tuesday D8, particularly if the trough follows some of the more progressive guidance. However, if return flow continues for a longer period before the primary trough ejects, a greater severe weather threat is possible, but it would likely be beyond Tuesday/D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Friday to D7/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D8. This may result in limited inland moisture and instability Monday/D7 and Tuesday D8, particularly if the trough follows some of the more progressive guidance. However, if return flow continues for a longer period before the primary trough ejects, a greater severe weather threat is possible, but it would likely be beyond Tuesday/D8. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:37:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 09:28:54 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220835 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024 Satellite images indicate that Kristy has continued to gradually become better organized during the overnight hours. A convective burst has been occurring over the low-level center, an indication that a central core could be forming. The cyclone also has some impressive curved banding to the north and west, although these bands are a bit far from the center. A pair of ASCAT passes from 22/0346 UTC and 22/0441 UTC showed tropical storm force winds in the northern semi-circle, with vectors in the 35 to 38 kt range. Since the time of the ASCAT passes, Kristy's convection has become better organized, with latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at a consensus T-3.0/45 kt. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt for this advisory. Kristy is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone will steer it westward for the next 3 days or so. Friday into the weekend, a turn to the west-northwest or northwest is expected as Kristy rounds the western periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge, and a mid-latitude upper-level trough approaches from the west. The track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous official forecast and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance at days 4 and 5, so confidence in this part of the forecast is a bit below average. Environmental conditions are favorable for steady strengthening, and rapid intensification cannot be ruled out. For the next 72 h, Kristy will remain within an environment of warm ocean temperatures, relatively weak vertical wind shear, and a moist troposphere. Beyond 72 h, southerly or southwesterly vertical wind shear will begin to increase over the cyclone, becoming strong in 4 to 5 days. Kristy should also cross the 26C isotherm in about 4 days and move into a much more stable environment. Therefore, weakening should begin in 3 to 4 days, with the potential for rapid weakening in 4 to 5 days. The intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous prediction, which calls for Kristy to peak at 100 kt in a few days, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.2N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220834 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 62 X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 110W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 2 87(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 110W 50 X 48(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 110W 64 X 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 55(57) 32(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 17(17) 43(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 71(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 35(74) 1(75) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) X(43) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 1(25) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 42(57) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024 264 WTPZ32 KNHC 220834 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024 ...KRISTY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 104.8W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 104.8 West. Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Kristy is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...KRISTY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 3:00 AM CST Tue Oct 22 the center of Kristy was located near 14.2, -104.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220833 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 104.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Thursday ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough advances off the East Coast a more zonal pattern will develop across the CONUS. A weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within this zonal pattern will move from the Plains to the Midwest with a weak surface low associated with it. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this trough and with some elevated thunderstorms possible during the late evening and into the overnight hours as the low-level jet strengthens. Some hail may be possible with this activity, but relatively weak instability should preclude any significant severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Thursday ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough advances off the East Coast a more zonal pattern will develop across the CONUS. A weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within this zonal pattern will move from the Plains to the Midwest with a weak surface low associated with it. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this trough and with some elevated thunderstorms possible during the late evening and into the overnight hours as the low-level jet strengthens. Some hail may be possible with this activity, but relatively weak instability should preclude any significant severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Thursday ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough advances off the East Coast a more zonal pattern will develop across the CONUS. A weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within this zonal pattern will move from the Plains to the Midwest with a weak surface low associated with it. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this trough and with some elevated thunderstorms possible during the late evening and into the overnight hours as the low-level jet strengthens. Some hail may be possible with this activity, but relatively weak instability should preclude any significant severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Thursday ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough advances off the East Coast a more zonal pattern will develop across the CONUS. A weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within this zonal pattern will move from the Plains to the Midwest with a weak surface low associated with it. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this trough and with some elevated thunderstorms possible during the late evening and into the overnight hours as the low-level jet strengthens. Some hail may be possible with this activity, but relatively weak instability should preclude any significant severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more