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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Saturday to D6/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D7. Limited moisture may surge northward on Tuesday/D7 and Wednesday/D8 with some thunderstorms possible. However, there is no clear signal for severe weather at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Saturday to D6/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D7. Limited moisture may surge northward on Tuesday/D7 and Wednesday/D8 with some thunderstorms possible. However, there is no clear signal for severe weather at this time. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 08:42:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 09:24:08 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230840 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 Kristy is rapidly strengthening this morning, with the latest satellite imagery showing an eye developing in the central dense overcast and good cirrus outflow in the western semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 75-95 kt range, and the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt. Kristy is moving 265/17 kt on the south side of the subtropical ridge, and this general motion should continue for the next 36 h or so. From 36-72 h, Kristy should turn northwestward toward a break in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. After that, strong upper-level winds should cause the cyclone to shear apart, with the low-level circulation turning westward on the south side of a low-level ridge. The new forecast track is generally similar to the old track, but is has been nudged northward between 60-96 h in response to a northward shift in the guidance. The hurricane should remain in an environment of light shear over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36 h or so, and thus continued steady to rapid strengthening is expected during that time. The first 36-48 h of the intensity forecast is at or a little above the upper edge of the intensity guidance and calls for a peak intensity of 120 kt. However, given current trends, it would not be a surprise if Kristy got stronger than this. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should encounter strong southwesterly shear and move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this combination should cause steady to rapid weakening. This part of the new intensity forecast calls for the system to weaken to a tropical storm by 96 h and then quickly decay to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.5N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.3N 114.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 17.2N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 20.0N 131.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 21.1N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 Kristy is rapidly strengthening this morning, with the latest satellite imagery showing an eye developing in the central dense overcast and good cirrus outflow in the western semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 75-95 kt range, and the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt. Kristy is moving 265/17 kt on the south side of the subtropical ridge, and this general motion should continue for the next 36 h or so. From 36-72 h, Kristy should turn northwestward toward a break in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. After that, strong upper-level winds should cause the cyclone to shear apart, with the low-level circulation turning westward on the south side of a low-level ridge. The new forecast track is generally similar to the old track, but is has been nudged northward between 60-96 h in response to a northward shift in the guidance. The hurricane should remain in an environment of light shear over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36 h or so, and thus continued steady to rapid strengthening is expected during that time. The first 36-48 h of the intensity forecast is at or a little above the upper edge of the intensity guidance and calls for a peak intensity of 120 kt. However, given current trends, it would not be a surprise if Kristy got stronger than this. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should encounter strong southwesterly shear and move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this combination should cause steady to rapid weakening. This part of the new intensity forecast calls for the system to weaken to a tropical storm by 96 h and then quickly decay to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.5N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.3N 114.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 17.2N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 20.0N 131.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 21.1N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 230840 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 86 7(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 115W 50 26 17(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 115W 64 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 120W 34 X 11(11) 80(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 57(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 62(64) 28(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 42(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 34(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 49(65) 1(66) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 1(30) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 230840 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 ...HURRICANE KRISTY QUICKLY INTENSIFYING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 112.0W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 112.0 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Kristy is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...HURRICANE KRISTY QUICKLY INTENSIFYING... As of 2:00 AM MST Wed Oct 23 the center of Kristy was located near 14.5, -112.0 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 230839 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 112.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 112.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N 114.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.2N 128.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 131.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 112.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 86 7(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 115W 50 26 17(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 115W 64 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 120W 34 X 11(11) 80(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 57(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 62(64) 28(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 42(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 34(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 49(65) 1(66) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 1(30) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN

...HURRICANE KRISTY QUICKLY INTENSIFYING... As of 2:00 AM MST Wed Oct 23 the center of Kristy was located near 14.5, -112.0 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 ...HURRICANE KRISTY QUICKLY INTENSIFYING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 112.0W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 112.0 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Kristy is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. A cold front will weaken as it moves into the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through at least the morning before the low-level jet veers/weakens and storms move east of the better low-level moisture. A few pockets of instability may remain along the remnant frontal boundary, but the lack of larger scale forcing amid increasing heights should limit overall convective coverage in what will already be a weakly unstable environment. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. A cold front will weaken as it moves into the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through at least the morning before the low-level jet veers/weakens and storms move east of the better low-level moisture. A few pockets of instability may remain along the remnant frontal boundary, but the lack of larger scale forcing amid increasing heights should limit overall convective coverage in what will already be a weakly unstable environment. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. A cold front will weaken as it moves into the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through at least the morning before the low-level jet veers/weakens and storms move east of the better low-level moisture. A few pockets of instability may remain along the remnant frontal boundary, but the lack of larger scale forcing amid increasing heights should limit overall convective coverage in what will already be a weakly unstable environment. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. A cold front will weaken as it moves into the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through at least the morning before the low-level jet veers/weakens and storms move east of the better low-level moisture. A few pockets of instability may remain along the remnant frontal boundary, but the lack of larger scale forcing amid increasing heights should limit overall convective coverage in what will already be a weakly unstable environment. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND MUCH OF IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and dCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Bentley.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND MUCH OF IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and dCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Bentley.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND MUCH OF IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and dCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Bentley.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND MUCH OF IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and dCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Bentley.. 10/23/2024 Read more