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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Water-vapor imagery this morning depicts a flattened upper anticyclone centered over east TX/LA and a large-scale trough over the WA/OR/northern CA coast. A notable mid-level disturbance will move from the eastern Pacific east-northeastward into northern NV during the period. Mid-level flow ahead of the western U.S. troughing will not be strong, but a plume of seasonably moist air from the Four Corners northward into MT will favor scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon into the early evening. Heating will steepen 0-3 km lapse rates and promote severe gusts with the stronger outflow surges from UT northward along the ID/WY border. Recent model guidance also indicates widely scattered to scattered storms developing across northern MT and moving east as a small thunderstorm cluster. Localized severe gusts may accompany this activity before weakening by early to mid evening. Farther east over the central High Plains, the maintenance of moist/upslope flow into the High Plains and higher terrain (i.e., CO Front Range) will promote isolated to scattered storms developing around peak heating and moving into the adjacent High Plains. An isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. A cluster of storms will likely develop in response to a nocturnal intensification of a LLJ but waning instability by late evening will limit overall storm vigor. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will glance this region today as a belt of 20-30kt mid-level flow overspreads a very moisture-rich airmass (i.e., mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints) south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Water-vapor imagery this morning depicts a flattened upper anticyclone centered over east TX/LA and a large-scale trough over the WA/OR/northern CA coast. A notable mid-level disturbance will move from the eastern Pacific east-northeastward into northern NV during the period. Mid-level flow ahead of the western U.S. troughing will not be strong, but a plume of seasonably moist air from the Four Corners northward into MT will favor scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon into the early evening. Heating will steepen 0-3 km lapse rates and promote severe gusts with the stronger outflow surges from UT northward along the ID/WY border. Recent model guidance also indicates widely scattered to scattered storms developing across northern MT and moving east as a small thunderstorm cluster. Localized severe gusts may accompany this activity before weakening by early to mid evening. Farther east over the central High Plains, the maintenance of moist/upslope flow into the High Plains and higher terrain (i.e., CO Front Range) will promote isolated to scattered storms developing around peak heating and moving into the adjacent High Plains. An isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. A cluster of storms will likely develop in response to a nocturnal intensification of a LLJ but waning instability by late evening will limit overall storm vigor. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will glance this region today as a belt of 20-30kt mid-level flow overspreads a very moisture-rich airmass (i.e., mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints) south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Water-vapor imagery this morning depicts a flattened upper anticyclone centered over east TX/LA and a large-scale trough over the WA/OR/northern CA coast. A notable mid-level disturbance will move from the eastern Pacific east-northeastward into northern NV during the period. Mid-level flow ahead of the western U.S. troughing will not be strong, but a plume of seasonably moist air from the Four Corners northward into MT will favor scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon into the early evening. Heating will steepen 0-3 km lapse rates and promote severe gusts with the stronger outflow surges from UT northward along the ID/WY border. Recent model guidance also indicates widely scattered to scattered storms developing across northern MT and moving east as a small thunderstorm cluster. Localized severe gusts may accompany this activity before weakening by early to mid evening. Farther east over the central High Plains, the maintenance of moist/upslope flow into the High Plains and higher terrain (i.e., CO Front Range) will promote isolated to scattered storms developing around peak heating and moving into the adjacent High Plains. An isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. A cluster of storms will likely develop in response to a nocturnal intensification of a LLJ but waning instability by late evening will limit overall storm vigor. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will glance this region today as a belt of 20-30kt mid-level flow overspreads a very moisture-rich airmass (i.e., mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints) south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Water-vapor imagery this morning depicts a flattened upper anticyclone centered over east TX/LA and a large-scale trough over the WA/OR/northern CA coast. A notable mid-level disturbance will move from the eastern Pacific east-northeastward into northern NV during the period. Mid-level flow ahead of the western U.S. troughing will not be strong, but a plume of seasonably moist air from the Four Corners northward into MT will favor scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon into the early evening. Heating will steepen 0-3 km lapse rates and promote severe gusts with the stronger outflow surges from UT northward along the ID/WY border. Recent model guidance also indicates widely scattered to scattered storms developing across northern MT and moving east as a small thunderstorm cluster. Localized severe gusts may accompany this activity before weakening by early to mid evening. Farther east over the central High Plains, the maintenance of moist/upslope flow into the High Plains and higher terrain (i.e., CO Front Range) will promote isolated to scattered storms developing around peak heating and moving into the adjacent High Plains. An isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. A cluster of storms will likely develop in response to a nocturnal intensification of a LLJ but waning instability by late evening will limit overall storm vigor. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will glance this region today as a belt of 20-30kt mid-level flow overspreads a very moisture-rich airmass (i.e., mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints) south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Water-vapor imagery this morning depicts a flattened upper anticyclone centered over east TX/LA and a large-scale trough over the WA/OR/northern CA coast. A notable mid-level disturbance will move from the eastern Pacific east-northeastward into northern NV during the period. Mid-level flow ahead of the western U.S. troughing will not be strong, but a plume of seasonably moist air from the Four Corners northward into MT will favor scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon into the early evening. Heating will steepen 0-3 km lapse rates and promote severe gusts with the stronger outflow surges from UT northward along the ID/WY border. Recent model guidance also indicates widely scattered to scattered storms developing across northern MT and moving east as a small thunderstorm cluster. Localized severe gusts may accompany this activity before weakening by early to mid evening. Farther east over the central High Plains, the maintenance of moist/upslope flow into the High Plains and higher terrain (i.e., CO Front Range) will promote isolated to scattered storms developing around peak heating and moving into the adjacent High Plains. An isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. A cluster of storms will likely develop in response to a nocturnal intensification of a LLJ but waning instability by late evening will limit overall storm vigor. ...Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will glance this region today as a belt of 20-30kt mid-level flow overspreads a very moisture-rich airmass (i.e., mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints) south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/12/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121111
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions, so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific, ridging building over much of the western states into the Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough. However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater severe potential remain low at this extended time frame. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2024 Read more