Aggregator

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 241432 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 34 3 93(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 125W 50 X 73(73) 6(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 125W 64 X 38(38) 9(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 40(83) X(83) X(83) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 37(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/B.ADAMS

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 241431 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 105SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/B.ADAMS

...MAJOR HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 the center of Kristy was located near 14.1, -120.3 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 933 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 241431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 120.3W ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 120.3 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest then north-northwest, with a slower forward speed, is expected Friday through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Kristy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected through tonight, with rapid weakening expected to begin Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/B.Adams

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN MO AND IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and much of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO/IA this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over western WY this morning will progress to the central Plains this evening and the mid MS Valley by early Friday. Downstream from this midlevel trough, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the central High Plains this afternoon, which will aid in northward advection of a partially modified Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F). Strong surface heating/mixing across KS/OK will result in a narrow surface warm sector with moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg) by mid-late afternoon across eastern KS. The eastern extent of the surface warm sector will be demarcated by a warm front into western MO. Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible by roughly 22-00z along a surface trough/cold front across eastern KS, with subsequent expansion of elevated convection farther northeast across northern MO/southern IA through early tonight in a zone of strengthening low-level warm advection. Isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible with the initial storms across eastern KS this evening in the zone of steeper low-level lapse rates. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support some potential for embedded supercells capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) into early tonight. The area from eastern KS to northwest MO was considered for a SLGT risk upgrade, and this area will be monitored closely in later outlook updates. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN MO AND IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and much of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO/IA this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over western WY this morning will progress to the central Plains this evening and the mid MS Valley by early Friday. Downstream from this midlevel trough, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the central High Plains this afternoon, which will aid in northward advection of a partially modified Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F). Strong surface heating/mixing across KS/OK will result in a narrow surface warm sector with moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg) by mid-late afternoon across eastern KS. The eastern extent of the surface warm sector will be demarcated by a warm front into western MO. Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible by roughly 22-00z along a surface trough/cold front across eastern KS, with subsequent expansion of elevated convection farther northeast across northern MO/southern IA through early tonight in a zone of strengthening low-level warm advection. Isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible with the initial storms across eastern KS this evening in the zone of steeper low-level lapse rates. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support some potential for embedded supercells capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) into early tonight. The area from eastern KS to northwest MO was considered for a SLGT risk upgrade, and this area will be monitored closely in later outlook updates. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN MO AND IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and much of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO/IA this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over western WY this morning will progress to the central Plains this evening and the mid MS Valley by early Friday. Downstream from this midlevel trough, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the central High Plains this afternoon, which will aid in northward advection of a partially modified Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F). Strong surface heating/mixing across KS/OK will result in a narrow surface warm sector with moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg) by mid-late afternoon across eastern KS. The eastern extent of the surface warm sector will be demarcated by a warm front into western MO. Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible by roughly 22-00z along a surface trough/cold front across eastern KS, with subsequent expansion of elevated convection farther northeast across northern MO/southern IA through early tonight in a zone of strengthening low-level warm advection. Isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible with the initial storms across eastern KS this evening in the zone of steeper low-level lapse rates. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support some potential for embedded supercells capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) into early tonight. The area from eastern KS to northwest MO was considered for a SLGT risk upgrade, and this area will be monitored closely in later outlook updates. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN MO AND IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and much of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern KS/northern MO/IA this evening into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over western WY this morning will progress to the central Plains this evening and the mid MS Valley by early Friday. Downstream from this midlevel trough, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the central High Plains this afternoon, which will aid in northward advection of a partially modified Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints of 55-60 F). Strong surface heating/mixing across KS/OK will result in a narrow surface warm sector with moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg) by mid-late afternoon across eastern KS. The eastern extent of the surface warm sector will be demarcated by a warm front into western MO. Surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible by roughly 22-00z along a surface trough/cold front across eastern KS, with subsequent expansion of elevated convection farther northeast across northern MO/southern IA through early tonight in a zone of strengthening low-level warm advection. Isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible with the initial storms across eastern KS this evening in the zone of steeper low-level lapse rates. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support some potential for embedded supercells capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) into early tonight. The area from eastern KS to northwest MO was considered for a SLGT risk upgrade, and this area will be monitored closely in later outlook updates. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/24/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal or no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Saturday. High pressure will dominate the pattern across the country on Saturday. A diffuse remnant front is expected from the Ozarks to the Carolinas during the day with some weak instability possible to its south where mid to upper 50s dewpoints are possible. However, forcing for ascent will be quite weak and therefore, minimal or no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal or no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Saturday. High pressure will dominate the pattern across the country on Saturday. A diffuse remnant front is expected from the Ozarks to the Carolinas during the day with some weak instability possible to its south where mid to upper 50s dewpoints are possible. However, forcing for ascent will be quite weak and therefore, minimal or no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal or no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Saturday. High pressure will dominate the pattern across the country on Saturday. A diffuse remnant front is expected from the Ozarks to the Carolinas during the day with some weak instability possible to its south where mid to upper 50s dewpoints are possible. However, forcing for ascent will be quite weak and therefore, minimal or no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal or no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Saturday. High pressure will dominate the pattern across the country on Saturday. A diffuse remnant front is expected from the Ozarks to the Carolinas during the day with some weak instability possible to its south where mid to upper 50s dewpoints are possible. However, forcing for ascent will be quite weak and therefore, minimal or no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather concerns a not anticipated across the contiguous United States. A surface cold front will continue to push east through the central United States and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. In the wake of this front, gusty northerly winds will reinforce a dry airmass in place across the Plains. Cooler conditions behind the front will result in slightly higher relative humidity values than the day before, which should somewhat constrain the overall large-scale fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather concerns a not anticipated across the contiguous United States. A surface cold front will continue to push east through the central United States and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. In the wake of this front, gusty northerly winds will reinforce a dry airmass in place across the Plains. Cooler conditions behind the front will result in slightly higher relative humidity values than the day before, which should somewhat constrain the overall large-scale fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more