Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kristy, located over the central portion of the eastern Pacific
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The stronger flow aloft will remain over the northern half of the CONUS and into CN with a flattening ridge over the western CONUS and a high over Baja CA. Cold air aloft beneath strong cyclonic flow will spread across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as a large upper cyclone situates over Hudson Bay. At the surface, high pressure will exist across the Plains and over the East, providing generally dry and stable conditions. The exception will be a narrow/in between zone from the OH Valley into northern TX near a cold front. This zone will be characterized by 50s F dewpoints and generally weak instability. Ascent looks to be most favorable early in the day from southern MO into IL, IN, and western OH, and scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible. ..Jewell.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The stronger flow aloft will remain over the northern half of the CONUS and into CN with a flattening ridge over the western CONUS and a high over Baja CA. Cold air aloft beneath strong cyclonic flow will spread across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as a large upper cyclone situates over Hudson Bay. At the surface, high pressure will exist across the Plains and over the East, providing generally dry and stable conditions. The exception will be a narrow/in between zone from the OH Valley into northern TX near a cold front. This zone will be characterized by 50s F dewpoints and generally weak instability. Ascent looks to be most favorable early in the day from southern MO into IL, IN, and western OH, and scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible. ..Jewell.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The stronger flow aloft will remain over the northern half of the CONUS and into CN with a flattening ridge over the western CONUS and a high over Baja CA. Cold air aloft beneath strong cyclonic flow will spread across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as a large upper cyclone situates over Hudson Bay. At the surface, high pressure will exist across the Plains and over the East, providing generally dry and stable conditions. The exception will be a narrow/in between zone from the OH Valley into northern TX near a cold front. This zone will be characterized by 50s F dewpoints and generally weak instability. Ascent looks to be most favorable early in the day from southern MO into IL, IN, and western OH, and scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible. ..Jewell.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The stronger flow aloft will remain over the northern half of the CONUS and into CN with a flattening ridge over the western CONUS and a high over Baja CA. Cold air aloft beneath strong cyclonic flow will spread across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as a large upper cyclone situates over Hudson Bay. At the surface, high pressure will exist across the Plains and over the East, providing generally dry and stable conditions. The exception will be a narrow/in between zone from the OH Valley into northern TX near a cold front. This zone will be characterized by 50s F dewpoints and generally weak instability. Ascent looks to be most favorable early in the day from southern MO into IL, IN, and western OH, and scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible. ..Jewell.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The stronger flow aloft will remain over the northern half of the CONUS and into CN with a flattening ridge over the western CONUS and a high over Baja CA. Cold air aloft beneath strong cyclonic flow will spread across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as a large upper cyclone situates over Hudson Bay. At the surface, high pressure will exist across the Plains and over the East, providing generally dry and stable conditions. The exception will be a narrow/in between zone from the OH Valley into northern TX near a cold front. This zone will be characterized by 50s F dewpoints and generally weak instability. Ascent looks to be most favorable early in the day from southern MO into IL, IN, and western OH, and scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible. ..Jewell.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The stronger flow aloft will remain over the northern half of the CONUS and into CN with a flattening ridge over the western CONUS and a high over Baja CA. Cold air aloft beneath strong cyclonic flow will spread across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as a large upper cyclone situates over Hudson Bay. At the surface, high pressure will exist across the Plains and over the East, providing generally dry and stable conditions. The exception will be a narrow/in between zone from the OH Valley into northern TX near a cold front. This zone will be characterized by 50s F dewpoints and generally weak instability. Ascent looks to be most favorable early in the day from southern MO into IL, IN, and western OH, and scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible. ..Jewell.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The stronger flow aloft will remain over the northern half of the CONUS and into CN with a flattening ridge over the western CONUS and a high over Baja CA. Cold air aloft beneath strong cyclonic flow will spread across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as a large upper cyclone situates over Hudson Bay. At the surface, high pressure will exist across the Plains and over the East, providing generally dry and stable conditions. The exception will be a narrow/in between zone from the OH Valley into northern TX near a cold front. This zone will be characterized by 50s F dewpoints and generally weak instability. Ascent looks to be most favorable early in the day from southern MO into IL, IN, and western OH, and scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible. ..Jewell.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The stronger flow aloft will remain over the northern half of the CONUS and into CN with a flattening ridge over the western CONUS and a high over Baja CA. Cold air aloft beneath strong cyclonic flow will spread across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as a large upper cyclone situates over Hudson Bay. At the surface, high pressure will exist across the Plains and over the East, providing generally dry and stable conditions. The exception will be a narrow/in between zone from the OH Valley into northern TX near a cold front. This zone will be characterized by 50s F dewpoints and generally weak instability. Ascent looks to be most favorable early in the day from southern MO into IL, IN, and western OH, and scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible. ..Jewell.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The stronger flow aloft will remain over the northern half of the CONUS and into CN with a flattening ridge over the western CONUS and a high over Baja CA. Cold air aloft beneath strong cyclonic flow will spread across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as a large upper cyclone situates over Hudson Bay. At the surface, high pressure will exist across the Plains and over the East, providing generally dry and stable conditions. The exception will be a narrow/in between zone from the OH Valley into northern TX near a cold front. This zone will be characterized by 50s F dewpoints and generally weak instability. Ascent looks to be most favorable early in the day from southern MO into IL, IN, and western OH, and scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible. ..Jewell.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail (up to 1-1.75 inch diameter) and strong wind gusts (around 50-60 mph) will be possible from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and parts of Iowa this evening into early tonight. ...Eastern Kansas into Missouri and Iowa... A shortwave trough over WY/CO will continue eastward across the central Plains through this evening, eventually reaching the mid MS Valley by early Friday morning. Related cyclogenesis across the central High Plains will lead to a consolidated surface low over the mid MO Valley this evening, with a cold front extending southwestward from the low across KS. A warm front should also be located over northern MO. Shallow low-level moisture, characterized by generally upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints, will be present across the warm sector from eastern KS into MO by late this afternoon. With the late arrival of large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, most guidance continues to show convective initiation occurring around 00Z, beginning in eastern KS and vicinity. Up to 750-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should be present across this area, with robust daytime heating aiding in the development of steep low-level lapse rates. Initial development may be briefly supercellular, as 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear supports updraft organization. Severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible with this initial activity, before a quick mode transition to more linear structures occurs along the cold front through the evening. Isolated strong to severe gusts (around 50-60 mph) may occur so long as thunderstorms remain surface based, before convection tends to become elevated with eastward extent into MO later this evening. Isolated hail may also occur this evening into the early overnight hours across parts of IA and northern MO, along/north of the warm front in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear should be present for robust updrafts, although it remains unclear whether supercells will be able to maintained for more than an hour or two. Given continued uncertainty in the number and longevity of surface-based supercells across eastern KS into northwest MO this evening, have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northeast Colorado. RH values are already around or below 20% in this area with wind gusts of 15-40 mph. Showers are developing over the northern Front Range along the CO/WY border but the Elevated area is south of these showers where the greatest overlap of strong west-northwest winds, low RH, and dry fuels should materialize. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northeast Colorado. RH values are already around or below 20% in this area with wind gusts of 15-40 mph. Showers are developing over the northern Front Range along the CO/WY border but the Elevated area is south of these showers where the greatest overlap of strong west-northwest winds, low RH, and dry fuels should materialize. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northeast Colorado. RH values are already around or below 20% in this area with wind gusts of 15-40 mph. Showers are developing over the northern Front Range along the CO/WY border but the Elevated area is south of these showers where the greatest overlap of strong west-northwest winds, low RH, and dry fuels should materialize. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 10/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more