Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley, with greater potential for large hail and damaging winds across parts of northeast Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms that should be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of the mid MO Valley should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity through the early afternoon as a southwesterly low-level jet and related warm advection slowly weakens. Upper ridging is forecast to remain prominent through the period across the lower MS Valley/Southeast into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Upstream, weak upper troughing is expected to become established over the northern/central Plains, with multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations forecast to move eastward across these regions. At the surface, a broad warm sector should be in place along/ahead of a weak front/lee trough. Most guidance suggests that multiple weak surface lows should generally consolidate over parts of central/eastern NE/KS by early Wednesday evening. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place across parts of the central Plains into the mid MO Valley. This moisture is forecast to advect northward in tandem with a sharpening warm front through the day, although considerable uncertainty still exists with how far north into IA the warm sector will be able to develop. Robust thunderstorms should develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS in the vicinity of a weak surface low and triple point. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place due to ample daytime heating of the rather moist airmass, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Even though mid/upper-level flow is forecast to be only modestly enhanced, veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with height should support enough deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells initially. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds appear possible. A low-level jet is also forecast to strengthen Wednesday evening across eastern NE/KS into IA. Any supercell that can remain at surface based could also pose some threat for a tornado across this area given strengthening low-level shear Wednesday evening. Otherwise, a bowing cluster may eventually develop and pose more of a damaging wind threat as it spreads east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley Wednesday evening and overnight. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across a broader portion of the northern/central Plains, although instability is forecast to generally become weaker with northward and westward extent. Still, weak to locally moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for modestly organized updrafts should exist across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon and evening. An isolated threat for both hail and strong to severe wind gusts remains apparent, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded in multiple areas to account for latest guidance trends in where strong to severe convection may develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more