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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN TEXT ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery. Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster. ...Central Plains/lower MO Valley... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN TEXT ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery. Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster. ...Central Plains/lower MO Valley... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN TEXT ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery. Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster. ...Central Plains/lower MO Valley... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024 Read more

Residents in the vicinity of Newton were asked to be very careful with outdoor burning, due to the low humidity and dry conditions. There was not a burn ban in effect yet. KJAS.com (Jasper, Texas), Aug 12, 2024

Fire activity was rising in southwest Mississippi as the fire season neared and the weather stayed hot and dry. Since August 1, the Mississippi Forestry Commission has responded to 37 wildfires that burned 695 acres. The MFC began wildfire detection flights due to the intense heat and dry conditions, stated the MFC fire chief. Wildfire activity usually begins to increase in August through November. Normally, Mississippi’s fire season is from October to April. The Daily Leader (Brookhaven, Miss.), Aug 12, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery. Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster. ...Central Plains/lower MO Valley... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (XXX lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery. Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster. ...Central Plains/lower MO Valley... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (XXX lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend well offshore of
southern Mexico. Some slow development is possible by early next
week as the low moves west-northwestward, remaining offshore of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more