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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is fairly low tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude, positive-tilt short-wave trough is progressing across the Appalachians early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms developed ahead of this feature earlier today, but nocturnal cooling and weak buoyancy are now inhibiting deeper updrafts, as is the passage of the short wave. Even so, surface front trails across southeast MO-northern AR-southeast OK-north TX, and this may provide sufficient convergence for weak convection. Weak instability continues along this portion of the front and a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out with deeper updrafts, primarily for the next few hours. Otherwise, the probability for thunderstorms is generally less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is fairly low tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude, positive-tilt short-wave trough is progressing across the Appalachians early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms developed ahead of this feature earlier today, but nocturnal cooling and weak buoyancy are now inhibiting deeper updrafts, as is the passage of the short wave. Even so, surface front trails across southeast MO-northern AR-southeast OK-north TX, and this may provide sufficient convergence for weak convection. Weak instability continues along this portion of the front and a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out with deeper updrafts, primarily for the next few hours. Otherwise, the probability for thunderstorms is generally less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 10/26/2024 Read more

Gov. Lamont declared a state of emergency for Connecticut due to drought, increased fire risk and fire activity. Connecticut residents were urged to avoid outdoor burning amid the critical fire weather. WTNH (New Haven, Ct.), Oct 25, 2024

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 25 22:19:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 25 22:19:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations and recent model guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations and recent model guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations and recent model guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations and recent model guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations and recent model guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations and recent model guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations and recent model guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations and recent model guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across parts of the Pacific Northwest coastal vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will develop into the western CONUS on Sunday, shunting an upper ridge quickly across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. Substantial cooling aloft will result in weak destabilization across parts of the Pacific Northwest with 500 mb temperatures to about -25 C. Forecast soundings depict perhaps 100 J/kg SBCAPE across coastal counties of WA and OR where EL temperatures will likely be cold enough to support lightning. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2024 Read more