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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE AND FAR NORTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...Central High Plains into the Central Plains... Low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through the Four Corners vicinity is expected to continue northeastward, helping to support afternoon thunderstorms across the central Rockies. Favorable low-level moisture will exist within the airmass downstream across the central High Plains, characterized by late afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Ongoing cloud covered may delay heating a bit, but temperatures are still expected to reach the mid 80s by the late afternoon. These low-level thermodynamic conditions will help remove convective inhibition while also supporting moderate buoyancy. The westerly/southwesterly flow aloft should remain relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 30 kt at 500 mb), but the veering wind profiles expected to be in place will still result in moderate vertical shear. Current expectation is for 0-6 km bulk shear to range from 25 to 35 kt, with the highest values located over northeast CO into western NE. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with isolated large hail and a damaging gusts possible. The stronger shear over northeast CO suggests a more organized mode is possible here, with the development of a forward-propagating convective line anticipated. Strong gusts will be possible within this line. This line may continue eastward into the central Plains overnight, supported by a moderate low-level jet. ...Lower MO Valley into southeast NE... Ongoing convective complex moving through southwest MO is expected to continue southeastward while gradually weakening. Some re-development is possible during the evening, beginning across southwest MO, as warm-air advection occurs along the remnant outflow. Thunderstorm development should then expand northwestward into northeast KS, northwest MO, and southeast NE as the low-level jet continues to strengthen. Some isolated hail is possible within the strongest storms. Additionally, despite their elevated character, downdrafts could become strong enough to penetrate any low-level stability, with some damaging gusts possible. ...Intermountain West into the northern High Plains... Early-day satellite imagery shows upper ridging centered over the southern Plains and upper troughing from Pacific Northwest into central CA. Moderately enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is in place between these two features, from the Great Basin across much of the Intermountain West and into the northern High Plains. A shortwave trough currently moving through the western Great Basin is expected to progress through this southwesterly flow, reaching the northern High Plains by early Wednesday morning. Favorable moisture is in place ahead of this wave, as evidence by PWATs around 1" sampled by the 12Z soundings at SLC and GJT, with near 0.9" at BOI as well. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region, as northeastward-progressing shortwave trough interacts with this favorable moisture. Ongoing cloud cover and filtered daytime heating is expected to keep temperatures in the upper 70s across much of the region, with slightly warmer temperatures possible across eastern ID and northeastern UT. These temperatures combined with the mid-level moisture already in place will support moderate buoyancy, with the enhanced mid-level flow supporting moderate vertical shear as well. As a result, a largely multicellular mode is anticipated, but a few more organized storms are possible, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing strong gusts. The only exception is across the eastern ID/northeast UT vicinity, where slightly better buoyancy and shear could result in a few supercells. Anticipated isolated coverage currently precludes the need for higher severe probabilities. ...South Carolina... A weak surface low is near the southern SC coast this morning. Modest low-level convergence from this low northwestward into western SC/northeast GA is helping support showers and occasional thunderstorms. This convergence will likely persist throughout the day, with the showers and thunderstorms progressing gradually eastward. A very moist airmass is in place, as evidenced by 16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio on the 12Z CHS sounding, and will diurnally destabilize today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE AND FAR NORTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...Central High Plains into the Central Plains... Low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through the Four Corners vicinity is expected to continue northeastward, helping to support afternoon thunderstorms across the central Rockies. Favorable low-level moisture will exist within the airmass downstream across the central High Plains, characterized by late afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Ongoing cloud covered may delay heating a bit, but temperatures are still expected to reach the mid 80s by the late afternoon. These low-level thermodynamic conditions will help remove convective inhibition while also supporting moderate buoyancy. The westerly/southwesterly flow aloft should remain relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 30 kt at 500 mb), but the veering wind profiles expected to be in place will still result in moderate vertical shear. Current expectation is for 0-6 km bulk shear to range from 25 to 35 kt, with the highest values located over northeast CO into western NE. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with isolated large hail and a damaging gusts possible. The stronger shear over northeast CO suggests a more organized mode is possible here, with the development of a forward-propagating convective line anticipated. Strong gusts will be possible within this line. This line may continue eastward into the central Plains overnight, supported by a moderate low-level jet. ...Lower MO Valley into southeast NE... Ongoing convective complex moving through southwest MO is expected to continue southeastward while gradually weakening. Some re-development is possible during the evening, beginning across southwest MO, as warm-air advection occurs along the remnant outflow. Thunderstorm development should then expand northwestward into northeast KS, northwest MO, and southeast NE as the low-level jet continues to strengthen. Some isolated hail is possible within the strongest storms. Additionally, despite their elevated character, downdrafts could become strong enough to penetrate any low-level stability, with some damaging gusts possible. ...Intermountain West into the northern High Plains... Early-day satellite imagery shows upper ridging centered over the southern Plains and upper troughing from Pacific Northwest into central CA. Moderately enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is in place between these two features, from the Great Basin across much of the Intermountain West and into the northern High Plains. A shortwave trough currently moving through the western Great Basin is expected to progress through this southwesterly flow, reaching the northern High Plains by early Wednesday morning. Favorable moisture is in place ahead of this wave, as evidence by PWATs around 1" sampled by the 12Z soundings at SLC and GJT, with near 0.9" at BOI as well. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region, as northeastward-progressing shortwave trough interacts with this favorable moisture. Ongoing cloud cover and filtered daytime heating is expected to keep temperatures in the upper 70s across much of the region, with slightly warmer temperatures possible across eastern ID and northeastern UT. These temperatures combined with the mid-level moisture already in place will support moderate buoyancy, with the enhanced mid-level flow supporting moderate vertical shear as well. As a result, a largely multicellular mode is anticipated, but a few more organized storms are possible, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing strong gusts. The only exception is across the eastern ID/northeast UT vicinity, where slightly better buoyancy and shear could result in a few supercells. Anticipated isolated coverage currently precludes the need for higher severe probabilities. ...South Carolina... A weak surface low is near the southern SC coast this morning. Modest low-level convergence from this low northwestward into western SC/northeast GA is helping support showers and occasional thunderstorms. This convergence will likely persist throughout the day, with the showers and thunderstorms progressing gradually eastward. A very moist airmass is in place, as evidenced by 16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio on the 12Z CHS sounding, and will diurnally destabilize today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE AND FAR NORTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...Central High Plains into the Central Plains... Low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through the Four Corners vicinity is expected to continue northeastward, helping to support afternoon thunderstorms across the central Rockies. Favorable low-level moisture will exist within the airmass downstream across the central High Plains, characterized by late afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Ongoing cloud covered may delay heating a bit, but temperatures are still expected to reach the mid 80s by the late afternoon. These low-level thermodynamic conditions will help remove convective inhibition while also supporting moderate buoyancy. The westerly/southwesterly flow aloft should remain relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 30 kt at 500 mb), but the veering wind profiles expected to be in place will still result in moderate vertical shear. Current expectation is for 0-6 km bulk shear to range from 25 to 35 kt, with the highest values located over northeast CO into western NE. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with isolated large hail and a damaging gusts possible. The stronger shear over northeast CO suggests a more organized mode is possible here, with the development of a forward-propagating convective line anticipated. Strong gusts will be possible within this line. This line may continue eastward into the central Plains overnight, supported by a moderate low-level jet. ...Lower MO Valley into southeast NE... Ongoing convective complex moving through southwest MO is expected to continue southeastward while gradually weakening. Some re-development is possible during the evening, beginning across southwest MO, as warm-air advection occurs along the remnant outflow. Thunderstorm development should then expand northwestward into northeast KS, northwest MO, and southeast NE as the low-level jet continues to strengthen. Some isolated hail is possible within the strongest storms. Additionally, despite their elevated character, downdrafts could become strong enough to penetrate any low-level stability, with some damaging gusts possible. ...Intermountain West into the northern High Plains... Early-day satellite imagery shows upper ridging centered over the southern Plains and upper troughing from Pacific Northwest into central CA. Moderately enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is in place between these two features, from the Great Basin across much of the Intermountain West and into the northern High Plains. A shortwave trough currently moving through the western Great Basin is expected to progress through this southwesterly flow, reaching the northern High Plains by early Wednesday morning. Favorable moisture is in place ahead of this wave, as evidence by PWATs around 1" sampled by the 12Z soundings at SLC and GJT, with near 0.9" at BOI as well. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region, as northeastward-progressing shortwave trough interacts with this favorable moisture. Ongoing cloud cover and filtered daytime heating is expected to keep temperatures in the upper 70s across much of the region, with slightly warmer temperatures possible across eastern ID and northeastern UT. These temperatures combined with the mid-level moisture already in place will support moderate buoyancy, with the enhanced mid-level flow supporting moderate vertical shear as well. As a result, a largely multicellular mode is anticipated, but a few more organized storms are possible, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing strong gusts. The only exception is across the eastern ID/northeast UT vicinity, where slightly better buoyancy and shear could result in a few supercells. Anticipated isolated coverage currently precludes the need for higher severe probabilities. ...South Carolina... A weak surface low is near the southern SC coast this morning. Modest low-level convergence from this low northwestward into western SC/northeast GA is helping support showers and occasional thunderstorms. This convergence will likely persist throughout the day, with the showers and thunderstorms progressing gradually eastward. A very moist airmass is in place, as evidenced by 16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio on the 12Z CHS sounding, and will diurnally destabilize today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE AND FAR NORTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...Central High Plains into the Central Plains... Low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through the Four Corners vicinity is expected to continue northeastward, helping to support afternoon thunderstorms across the central Rockies. Favorable low-level moisture will exist within the airmass downstream across the central High Plains, characterized by late afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Ongoing cloud covered may delay heating a bit, but temperatures are still expected to reach the mid 80s by the late afternoon. These low-level thermodynamic conditions will help remove convective inhibition while also supporting moderate buoyancy. The westerly/southwesterly flow aloft should remain relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 30 kt at 500 mb), but the veering wind profiles expected to be in place will still result in moderate vertical shear. Current expectation is for 0-6 km bulk shear to range from 25 to 35 kt, with the highest values located over northeast CO into western NE. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with isolated large hail and a damaging gusts possible. The stronger shear over northeast CO suggests a more organized mode is possible here, with the development of a forward-propagating convective line anticipated. Strong gusts will be possible within this line. This line may continue eastward into the central Plains overnight, supported by a moderate low-level jet. ...Lower MO Valley into southeast NE... Ongoing convective complex moving through southwest MO is expected to continue southeastward while gradually weakening. Some re-development is possible during the evening, beginning across southwest MO, as warm-air advection occurs along the remnant outflow. Thunderstorm development should then expand northwestward into northeast KS, northwest MO, and southeast NE as the low-level jet continues to strengthen. Some isolated hail is possible within the strongest storms. Additionally, despite their elevated character, downdrafts could become strong enough to penetrate any low-level stability, with some damaging gusts possible. ...Intermountain West into the northern High Plains... Early-day satellite imagery shows upper ridging centered over the southern Plains and upper troughing from Pacific Northwest into central CA. Moderately enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is in place between these two features, from the Great Basin across much of the Intermountain West and into the northern High Plains. A shortwave trough currently moving through the western Great Basin is expected to progress through this southwesterly flow, reaching the northern High Plains by early Wednesday morning. Favorable moisture is in place ahead of this wave, as evidence by PWATs around 1" sampled by the 12Z soundings at SLC and GJT, with near 0.9" at BOI as well. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region, as northeastward-progressing shortwave trough interacts with this favorable moisture. Ongoing cloud cover and filtered daytime heating is expected to keep temperatures in the upper 70s across much of the region, with slightly warmer temperatures possible across eastern ID and northeastern UT. These temperatures combined with the mid-level moisture already in place will support moderate buoyancy, with the enhanced mid-level flow supporting moderate vertical shear as well. As a result, a largely multicellular mode is anticipated, but a few more organized storms are possible, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing strong gusts. The only exception is across the eastern ID/northeast UT vicinity, where slightly better buoyancy and shear could result in a few supercells. Anticipated isolated coverage currently precludes the need for higher severe probabilities. ...South Carolina... A weak surface low is near the southern SC coast this morning. Modest low-level convergence from this low northwestward into western SC/northeast GA is helping support showers and occasional thunderstorms. This convergence will likely persist throughout the day, with the showers and thunderstorms progressing gradually eastward. A very moist airmass is in place, as evidenced by 16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio on the 12Z CHS sounding, and will diurnally destabilize today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE AND FAR NORTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...Central High Plains into the Central Plains... Low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through the Four Corners vicinity is expected to continue northeastward, helping to support afternoon thunderstorms across the central Rockies. Favorable low-level moisture will exist within the airmass downstream across the central High Plains, characterized by late afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Ongoing cloud covered may delay heating a bit, but temperatures are still expected to reach the mid 80s by the late afternoon. These low-level thermodynamic conditions will help remove convective inhibition while also supporting moderate buoyancy. The westerly/southwesterly flow aloft should remain relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 30 kt at 500 mb), but the veering wind profiles expected to be in place will still result in moderate vertical shear. Current expectation is for 0-6 km bulk shear to range from 25 to 35 kt, with the highest values located over northeast CO into western NE. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with isolated large hail and a damaging gusts possible. The stronger shear over northeast CO suggests a more organized mode is possible here, with the development of a forward-propagating convective line anticipated. Strong gusts will be possible within this line. This line may continue eastward into the central Plains overnight, supported by a moderate low-level jet. ...Lower MO Valley into southeast NE... Ongoing convective complex moving through southwest MO is expected to continue southeastward while gradually weakening. Some re-development is possible during the evening, beginning across southwest MO, as warm-air advection occurs along the remnant outflow. Thunderstorm development should then expand northwestward into northeast KS, northwest MO, and southeast NE as the low-level jet continues to strengthen. Some isolated hail is possible within the strongest storms. Additionally, despite their elevated character, downdrafts could become strong enough to penetrate any low-level stability, with some damaging gusts possible. ...Intermountain West into the northern High Plains... Early-day satellite imagery shows upper ridging centered over the southern Plains and upper troughing from Pacific Northwest into central CA. Moderately enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is in place between these two features, from the Great Basin across much of the Intermountain West and into the northern High Plains. A shortwave trough currently moving through the western Great Basin is expected to progress through this southwesterly flow, reaching the northern High Plains by early Wednesday morning. Favorable moisture is in place ahead of this wave, as evidence by PWATs around 1" sampled by the 12Z soundings at SLC and GJT, with near 0.9" at BOI as well. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region, as northeastward-progressing shortwave trough interacts with this favorable moisture. Ongoing cloud cover and filtered daytime heating is expected to keep temperatures in the upper 70s across much of the region, with slightly warmer temperatures possible across eastern ID and northeastern UT. These temperatures combined with the mid-level moisture already in place will support moderate buoyancy, with the enhanced mid-level flow supporting moderate vertical shear as well. As a result, a largely multicellular mode is anticipated, but a few more organized storms are possible, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing strong gusts. The only exception is across the eastern ID/northeast UT vicinity, where slightly better buoyancy and shear could result in a few supercells. Anticipated isolated coverage currently precludes the need for higher severe probabilities. ...South Carolina... A weak surface low is near the southern SC coast this morning. Modest low-level convergence from this low northwestward into western SC/northeast GA is helping support showers and occasional thunderstorms. This convergence will likely persist throughout the day, with the showers and thunderstorms progressing gradually eastward. A very moist airmass is in place, as evidenced by 16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio on the 12Z CHS sounding, and will diurnally destabilize today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE AND FAR NORTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska and far northwest Kansas. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...Central High Plains into the Central Plains... Low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through the Four Corners vicinity is expected to continue northeastward, helping to support afternoon thunderstorms across the central Rockies. Favorable low-level moisture will exist within the airmass downstream across the central High Plains, characterized by late afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Ongoing cloud covered may delay heating a bit, but temperatures are still expected to reach the mid 80s by the late afternoon. These low-level thermodynamic conditions will help remove convective inhibition while also supporting moderate buoyancy. The westerly/southwesterly flow aloft should remain relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 30 kt at 500 mb), but the veering wind profiles expected to be in place will still result in moderate vertical shear. Current expectation is for 0-6 km bulk shear to range from 25 to 35 kt, with the highest values located over northeast CO into western NE. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with isolated large hail and a damaging gusts possible. The stronger shear over northeast CO suggests a more organized mode is possible here, with the development of a forward-propagating convective line anticipated. Strong gusts will be possible within this line. This line may continue eastward into the central Plains overnight, supported by a moderate low-level jet. ...Lower MO Valley into southeast NE... Ongoing convective complex moving through southwest MO is expected to continue southeastward while gradually weakening. Some re-development is possible during the evening, beginning across southwest MO, as warm-air advection occurs along the remnant outflow. Thunderstorm development should then expand northwestward into northeast KS, northwest MO, and southeast NE as the low-level jet continues to strengthen. Some isolated hail is possible within the strongest storms. Additionally, despite their elevated character, downdrafts could become strong enough to penetrate any low-level stability, with some damaging gusts possible. ...Intermountain West into the northern High Plains... Early-day satellite imagery shows upper ridging centered over the southern Plains and upper troughing from Pacific Northwest into central CA. Moderately enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is in place between these two features, from the Great Basin across much of the Intermountain West and into the northern High Plains. A shortwave trough currently moving through the western Great Basin is expected to progress through this southwesterly flow, reaching the northern High Plains by early Wednesday morning. Favorable moisture is in place ahead of this wave, as evidence by PWATs around 1" sampled by the 12Z soundings at SLC and GJT, with near 0.9" at BOI as well. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region, as northeastward-progressing shortwave trough interacts with this favorable moisture. Ongoing cloud cover and filtered daytime heating is expected to keep temperatures in the upper 70s across much of the region, with slightly warmer temperatures possible across eastern ID and northeastern UT. These temperatures combined with the mid-level moisture already in place will support moderate buoyancy, with the enhanced mid-level flow supporting moderate vertical shear as well. As a result, a largely multicellular mode is anticipated, but a few more organized storms are possible, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing strong gusts. The only exception is across the eastern ID/northeast UT vicinity, where slightly better buoyancy and shear could result in a few supercells. Anticipated isolated coverage currently precludes the need for higher severe probabilities. ...South Carolina... A weak surface low is near the southern SC coast this morning. Modest low-level convergence from this low northwestward into western SC/northeast GA is helping support showers and occasional thunderstorms. This convergence will likely persist throughout the day, with the showers and thunderstorms progressing gradually eastward. A very moist airmass is in place, as evidenced by 16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio on the 12Z CHS sounding, and will diurnally destabilize today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some adjustments made to the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area. This was done primarily to account for the cessation of thunderstorm potential across parts of northeast OR/far southwest WA as the first round of convection exits the region and is followed by areas of wetting rainfall (per MRMS estimates). A second round of isolated dry thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon across parts of eastern OR into west/southwest ID. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some adjustments made to the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area. This was done primarily to account for the cessation of thunderstorm potential across parts of northeast OR/far southwest WA as the first round of convection exits the region and is followed by areas of wetting rainfall (per MRMS estimates). A second round of isolated dry thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon across parts of eastern OR into west/southwest ID. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some adjustments made to the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area. This was done primarily to account for the cessation of thunderstorm potential across parts of northeast OR/far southwest WA as the first round of convection exits the region and is followed by areas of wetting rainfall (per MRMS estimates). A second round of isolated dry thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon across parts of eastern OR into west/southwest ID. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some adjustments made to the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area. This was done primarily to account for the cessation of thunderstorm potential across parts of northeast OR/far southwest WA as the first round of convection exits the region and is followed by areas of wetting rainfall (per MRMS estimates). A second round of isolated dry thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon across parts of eastern OR into west/southwest ID. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some adjustments made to the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area. This was done primarily to account for the cessation of thunderstorm potential across parts of northeast OR/far southwest WA as the first round of convection exits the region and is followed by areas of wetting rainfall (per MRMS estimates). A second round of isolated dry thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon across parts of eastern OR into west/southwest ID. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some adjustments made to the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area. This was done primarily to account for the cessation of thunderstorm potential across parts of northeast OR/far southwest WA as the first round of convection exits the region and is followed by areas of wetting rainfall (per MRMS estimates). A second round of isolated dry thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon across parts of eastern OR into west/southwest ID. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some adjustments made to the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area. This was done primarily to account for the cessation of thunderstorm potential across parts of northeast OR/far southwest WA as the first round of convection exits the region and is followed by areas of wetting rainfall (per MRMS estimates). A second round of isolated dry thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon across parts of eastern OR into west/southwest ID. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some adjustments made to the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area. This was done primarily to account for the cessation of thunderstorm potential across parts of northeast OR/far southwest WA as the first round of convection exits the region and is followed by areas of wetting rainfall (per MRMS estimates). A second round of isolated dry thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon across parts of eastern OR into west/southwest ID. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some adjustments made to the isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area. This was done primarily to account for the cessation of thunderstorm potential across parts of northeast OR/far southwest WA as the first round of convection exits the region and is followed by areas of wetting rainfall (per MRMS estimates). A second round of isolated dry thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon across parts of eastern OR into west/southwest ID. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated vorticity maximum will move northeastward from California into eastern Oregon and Washington. In response to the approaching trough, southerly low-level flow will transport modified monsoonal moisture northward into portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.8 will support the occurrence of dry thunderstorms. Some locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin, particularly in northeastern Nevada. However, in the absence of any large-scale pressure gradients, any stronger winds will be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Two rounds of dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Oregon and into Idaho, where some dry thunder will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and another round should develop around 21Z. Current forecast guidance places more confidence in the later-period thunder, rather than the early-period thunder. However, with modest PWAT values and storm motions of about 25-30 kts, wetting rainfall will be limited over fuels that are receptive to new ignitions. ...Dry/Windy... Some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across northeastern Nevada. While fuels guidance suggests some receptiveness to new ignitions, and relative humidity values will fall to 15-20%, sustained winds reaching elevated criteria will be localized to terrain features. This will preclude any highlight areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN TEXT ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery. Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster. ...Central Plains/lower MO Valley... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN TEXT ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery. Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster. ...Central Plains/lower MO Valley... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN TEXT ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery. Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster. ...Central Plains/lower MO Valley... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN TEXT ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery. Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster. ...Central Plains/lower MO Valley... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024 Read more