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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 084 WTPZ42 KNHC 261434 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy is rapidly weakening. Satellite images show the center of the hurricane on the southern edge of the central dense overcast, with the southern part of the circulation exposed due to strong shear. The current intensity is set to 65 kt, consistent with the latest estimates. Further rapid weakening is anticipated due to a continuation of strong shear and Kristy moving over cooler waters. The new intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, similar to the intensity consensus aids. Kristy should become post-tropical without any organized convection in about 24 h. The hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt this morning. This general motion is expected until late today when the mid-level circulation of the cyclone becomes decoupled with the low-level center. Kristy should then turn westward on Sunday and southwestward late that day as a remnant low. Very little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains steady in showing this course. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.7N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake