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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South... As upper ridging remains suppressed across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains, an upper trough should continue to progress slowly eastward over portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present over parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak/occluded surface low beneath the upper cyclone should likewise develop slowly eastward over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. An ill-defined front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Friday morning over parts of the OH Valley. This activity is generally expected to remain sub-severe and further weaken through the morning/early afternoon as it moves eastward into a less unstable airmass. Some recovery is expected to the west of the early-day convection and ahead of the weak front, with a rather moist low-level airmass forecast to be in place from portions of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Mid-South vicinity. While deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually weaken with southward extent, a broad area of at least moderate instability should develop in tandem with daytime heating along and east/southeast of the front. Any thunderstorms that do develop could become strong to severe with mainly a hail/wind threat given the forecast environment, but considerable uncertainty remains concerning details of convective initiation and development. Only weak low-level convergence along the surface front also lends uncertainty in where greater severe thunderstorm coverage may occur. Therefore, for now have included a broad Marginal Risk for Friday. But, higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in an MCS/cluster occurring. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South... As upper ridging remains suppressed across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains, an upper trough should continue to progress slowly eastward over portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present over parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, and related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak/occluded surface low beneath the upper cyclone should likewise develop slowly eastward over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. An ill-defined front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Friday morning over parts of the OH Valley. This activity is generally expected to remain sub-severe and further weaken through the morning/early afternoon as it moves eastward into a less unstable airmass. Some recovery is expected to the west of the early-day convection and ahead of the weak front, with a rather moist low-level airmass forecast to be in place from portions of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Mid-South vicinity. While deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually weaken with southward extent, a broad area of at least moderate instability should develop in tandem with daytime heating along and east/southeast of the front. Any thunderstorms that do develop could become strong to severe with mainly a hail/wind threat given the forecast environment, but considerable uncertainty remains concerning details of convective initiation and development. Only weak low-level convergence along the surface front also lends uncertainty in where greater severe thunderstorm coverage may occur. Therefore, for now have included a broad Marginal Risk for Friday. But, higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in an MCS/cluster occurring. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast early Thursday morning and deepen over western Oregon during the afternoon hours, bringing with it multiple rounds of isolated dry thunderstorms across central and eastern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period Thursday morning. However, the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours, where a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Oregon. Even though fuels are near or at the 90th annual percentile over much of Oregon, the mix of wet/dry thunderstorms and relatively slow storm motions should result in at least some wetting rainfall limiting the overall threat despite scattered storm coverage. ...Dry/Windy... Surface winds are expected to remain below Elevated fire-weather criteria, except for where diurnally and terrain-driven winds are locally maximized. Given the localized nature of the better surface winds, no highlights are expected at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1898 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1898 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...south-central into southeast NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 621... Valid 140605Z - 140700Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 621 continues. SUMMARY...A focused corridor for strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) will extend through the eastern part of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #621 and perhaps a few counties farther east. A local watch extension-in-area could be utilized if observational trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a mature bowing segment with an implied Rear Inflow Jet moving quickly east across southern NE at 50 mph. Strong low-level warm-air advection indicative in the KUEX VAD data (45 kt southerly flow at 1.5 km AGL) will continue to sustain a background environment favorable for a continuation of the bowing segment into eastern portions of NE through the early overnight. Surface analysis shows temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s with mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the squall line. Appreciable convective inhibition and a gradual lessening of buoyancy (per objective analysis data and 00 UTC area raob data) will likely limit and constrict the corridor for strong to severe gusts to the apex of the bow and immediate adjacent areas before this potential diminishes in eastern NE. ..Smith.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40849907 41049833 41079758 40899731 40639727 40429742 40329828 40409902 40849907 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, bringing with it forcing for ascent supportive of isolated dry thunderstorms. The greatest chances for dry thunderstorms will be across portions of northern California and southern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast sounding profiles still suggest the most unstable/buoyant parcels will originate at temperatures near or colder than 0 C, leaving some uncertainty in charge separation/lightning potential across the Northwest. However, forcing from the shortwave trough should be sufficient enough for at least some thunderstorm development overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning over receptive fuels. ...Dry/Windy... The strongest surface winds supportive of Elevated fire-weather conditions across the Western U.S. will be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors that are too localized for highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, bringing with it forcing for ascent supportive of isolated dry thunderstorms. The greatest chances for dry thunderstorms will be across portions of northern California and southern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast sounding profiles still suggest the most unstable/buoyant parcels will originate at temperatures near or colder than 0 C, leaving some uncertainty in charge separation/lightning potential across the Northwest. However, forcing from the shortwave trough should be sufficient enough for at least some thunderstorm development overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning over receptive fuels. ...Dry/Windy... The strongest surface winds supportive of Elevated fire-weather conditions across the Western U.S. will be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors that are too localized for highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, bringing with it forcing for ascent supportive of isolated dry thunderstorms. The greatest chances for dry thunderstorms will be across portions of northern California and southern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast sounding profiles still suggest the most unstable/buoyant parcels will originate at temperatures near or colder than 0 C, leaving some uncertainty in charge separation/lightning potential across the Northwest. However, forcing from the shortwave trough should be sufficient enough for at least some thunderstorm development overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning over receptive fuels. ...Dry/Windy... The strongest surface winds supportive of Elevated fire-weather conditions across the Western U.S. will be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors that are too localized for highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, bringing with it forcing for ascent supportive of isolated dry thunderstorms. The greatest chances for dry thunderstorms will be across portions of northern California and southern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast sounding profiles still suggest the most unstable/buoyant parcels will originate at temperatures near or colder than 0 C, leaving some uncertainty in charge separation/lightning potential across the Northwest. However, forcing from the shortwave trough should be sufficient enough for at least some thunderstorm development overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning over receptive fuels. ...Dry/Windy... The strongest surface winds supportive of Elevated fire-weather conditions across the Western U.S. will be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors that are too localized for highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, bringing with it forcing for ascent supportive of isolated dry thunderstorms. The greatest chances for dry thunderstorms will be across portions of northern California and southern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast sounding profiles still suggest the most unstable/buoyant parcels will originate at temperatures near or colder than 0 C, leaving some uncertainty in charge separation/lightning potential across the Northwest. However, forcing from the shortwave trough should be sufficient enough for at least some thunderstorm development overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning over receptive fuels. ...Dry/Windy... The strongest surface winds supportive of Elevated fire-weather conditions across the Western U.S. will be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors that are too localized for highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, bringing with it forcing for ascent supportive of isolated dry thunderstorms. The greatest chances for dry thunderstorms will be across portions of northern California and southern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast sounding profiles still suggest the most unstable/buoyant parcels will originate at temperatures near or colder than 0 C, leaving some uncertainty in charge separation/lightning potential across the Northwest. However, forcing from the shortwave trough should be sufficient enough for at least some thunderstorm development overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning over receptive fuels. ...Dry/Windy... The strongest surface winds supportive of Elevated fire-weather conditions across the Western U.S. will be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors that are too localized for highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to cross the northern California coast Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, bringing with it forcing for ascent supportive of isolated dry thunderstorms. The greatest chances for dry thunderstorms will be across portions of northern California and southern Oregon. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forecast sounding profiles still suggest the most unstable/buoyant parcels will originate at temperatures near or colder than 0 C, leaving some uncertainty in charge separation/lightning potential across the Northwest. However, forcing from the shortwave trough should be sufficient enough for at least some thunderstorm development overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning over receptive fuels. ...Dry/Windy... The strongest surface winds supportive of Elevated fire-weather conditions across the Western U.S. will be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors that are too localized for highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains. In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail, localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains. In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail, localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains. In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail, localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid/upper-level trough should gradually amplify and deepen over the Upper Midwest on Thursday, eventually transitioning to a closed upper low. A gradual intensification of mid-level westerly flow is forecast across parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley vicinity through the day. At the surface, a weak low may gradually occlude beneath the upper cyclone through the period, with a trailing front extending southwestward from this low across parts of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains. In the wake of mainly elevated thunderstorms that should be ongoing Thursday morning, low-level southwesterly flow should support airmass recovery and robust destabilization Thursday afternoon from parts of the east-central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates overlying rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints) will likely foster strong to locally extreme instability, with MLCAPE potentially in the 2500-4000+ J/kg range across the warm sector by late Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid-level flow will support effective bulk shear values around 30-45 kt, resulting in a conditionally rather favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The details of convective initiation and evolution still remain rather uncertain due to weak low-level convergence along the synoptic front. Regardless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late Thursday afternoon along this boundary, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Supercells with a threat of large hail, localized damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible initially, with some upscale growth potentially leading to an increase in severe/damaging wind potential by Thursday evening, as thunderstorms move into parts of southern MO/IL and vicinity. ...Southern/Central Plains... With robust daytime heating, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to occur along/south of the front across parts of southern KS into OK. While deep-layer shear should remain weak across most of this region, moderate to strong instability and steepened low to mid-level lapse rates should support mainly an isolated severe wind threat with high-based thunderstorms that can develop. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason.. 08/14/2024 Read more