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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Monday across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, in the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the lower Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Monday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Intermountain West. In the wake of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible near the coast in the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop near the Four Corners as a large-scale ascent increases ahead of the trough, and as surface temperatures warm during the day. Additional thunderstorms may form across the Great Lakes Monday night as warm advection, associated with a broad low-level jet, increases across the region. No severe threat is expected to develop across the continental United States Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Monday across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, in the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the lower Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Monday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Intermountain West. In the wake of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible near the coast in the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop near the Four Corners as a large-scale ascent increases ahead of the trough, and as surface temperatures warm during the day. Additional thunderstorms may form across the Great Lakes Monday night as warm advection, associated with a broad low-level jet, increases across the region. No severe threat is expected to develop across the continental United States Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Monday across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, in the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the lower Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Monday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Intermountain West. In the wake of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible near the coast in the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop near the Four Corners as a large-scale ascent increases ahead of the trough, and as surface temperatures warm during the day. Additional thunderstorms may form across the Great Lakes Monday night as warm advection, associated with a broad low-level jet, increases across the region. No severe threat is expected to develop across the continental United States Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Monday across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, in the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the lower Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Monday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Intermountain West. In the wake of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible near the coast in the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop near the Four Corners as a large-scale ascent increases ahead of the trough, and as surface temperatures warm during the day. Additional thunderstorms may form across the Great Lakes Monday night as warm advection, associated with a broad low-level jet, increases across the region. No severe threat is expected to develop across the continental United States Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Monday across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, in the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the lower Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Monday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Intermountain West. In the wake of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible near the coast in the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop near the Four Corners as a large-scale ascent increases ahead of the trough, and as surface temperatures warm during the day. Additional thunderstorms may form across the Great Lakes Monday night as warm advection, associated with a broad low-level jet, increases across the region. No severe threat is expected to develop across the continental United States Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more