Aggregator

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CNK TO 40 NNE CNK TO 35 WSW LNK TO 15 SW OLU. ..GOSS..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-009-029-049-071-077-085-121-129-137-145-155-159-165- 173-175-150240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON CASS DALLAS FREMONT GUTHRIE HARRISON MADISON MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION KSC005-013-017-027-029-041-043-045-053-059-061-085-087-091-103- 111-113-115-117-127-131-139-143-149-157-159-161-169-177-197-201- 209-150240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CNK TO 40 NNE CNK TO 35 WSW LNK TO 15 SW OLU. ..GOSS..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-009-029-049-071-077-085-121-129-137-145-155-159-165- 173-175-150240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON CASS DALLAS FREMONT GUTHRIE HARRISON MADISON MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION KSC005-013-017-027-029-041-043-045-053-059-061-085-087-091-103- 111-113-115-117-127-131-139-143-149-157-159-161-169-177-197-201- 209-150240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON Read more

MD 1903 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1903 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska...and into southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622... Valid 150009Z - 150145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 continues. SUMMARY...A few severe storms -- including a persistent supercell -- are now ongoing across portions of WW 622 near the northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska border. Large hail remains the primary threat, though a damaging outflow gust and/or brief tornado are also possible. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop across the Mid-MO Valley area shows several vigorous updrafts, a couple of which have exhibited transient rotational signatures per area WSR-88D data. The most organized/long-lived cell is moving northeastward across Gage County, though this storm too now appears to be weakening. Overall, the environment supports strong/rotating storms; the combination of a moist (70s dewpoints) and very unstable (3000-plus J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) environment, combined with the presence of a northwest-to-southeast remnant outflow providing focused low-level ascent, suggests additional strong/severe storm development over the next couple of hours. In addition, recent CAM output continues to hint at potential for storm development near/ahead of a surface cold front slowly advancing across central Nebraska, which would be expected to move into/across northwestern portions of WW 622 later this evening. Given a similarly sheared/unstable environment ahead of the front, potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts would likely accompany these storms, presuming development as anticipated. ..Goss.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38889796 39529703 40229695 40769638 40979568 40249512 39359533 38699641 38639754 38889796 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0622 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142342
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure will likely form during the next couple
of days well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next
week while the system moves westward. Information on this system
can also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure will likely form this weekend well offshore
of southwestern Mexico. Some subsequent slow development is
possible, and a tropical depression could form early next week as
the low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 14 23:30:26 UTC 2024.

MD 1902 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST NE...FAR NORTHWEST MO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1902 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS...southeast NE...far northwest MO...and far southwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142057Z - 142330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe potential this afternoon into the evening. Timing of thunderstorm development is uncertain, though an eventual watch issuance appears likely for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a warm front/modifying outflow boundary extending east-southeastward across northeast KS -- from a weak frontal-wave low over north-central KS. North of the boundary, billow clouds continue to erode from south to north as the antecedent outflow continues to destabilize amid strong diurnal heating. Here, steep mid-level lapse rates atop rich/sheltered boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) will result in strong surface-based instability. However, additional heating will be needed (especially with northward extent) to erode lingering inhibition (see OAX 19Z special sounding). Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the frontal-wave low, near the warm front, and possibly to the north along a differential heating boundary, possibly aided by an approaching midlevel trough. Storms will spread eastward into the increasingly favorable environment -- characterized by 30-40 kt of effective shear, strong instability, and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH). This will favor organized storms, including the potential for supercells and organized clusters, capable of damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. Timing of thunderstorm development and intensification is still uncertain, though an eventual watch issuance is likely for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38899778 39289797 39729796 40439769 41109738 41429716 41479676 41429591 41109560 40169532 39629532 39279555 38769605 38569643 38499682 38659739 38899778 Read more

MD 1901 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1901 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142053Z - 142300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to slowly evolve to the west and northwest of the Pierre vicinity through 5-7 PM CDT, accompanied by occasional small to marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. It is possible that the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts could increase later this evening. However, at least until then, it appears unlikely that a severe weather watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Within lee surface troughing, inhibition is eroding with continuing insolation, for a destabilizing boundary layer near a modest low centered near Pierre. This is being aided by mid-level cooling overspreading the high plains, associated with the leading edge of troughing crossing the northern Rockies, which appears to be providing support for an evolving line of convection to the west of Mobridge into the Philip vicinity. A gradual further upscale growth appears possible during the next few hours, as convection acquires increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air becoming characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg. In the presence of south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 10-15 kt, storm motions will remain slow initially. However, modest shear, aided by veering of wind fields with height, might slowly contribute to increasing organization into early evening, particularly as convective outflow supports an increasingly prominent surface cold pool. Once this occurs, the risk for strong to severe surface gusts may begin to increase. Until then, though, more localized strong surface gusts and occasional small to marginal severe hail appear the primary potential severe hazards. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45990078 45659962 43939945 43900110 45490153 45990078 Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0622 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0622 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 622 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 142230Z - 150600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwestern Iowa Central to northeastern Kansas Northwestern Missouri East-central and southeastern Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the western end of the watch and move roughly eastward while increasing in coverage through the evening. Large to isolated very large hail is possible early, while the severe-gust threat increases into evening. A tornado or two also is possible -- mainly over a part of the watch across northeastern KS, near an outflow boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southeast of Manhattan KS to 35 miles north northeast of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Edwards Read more