Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Northwest, bringing two different rounds of a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms to portions of Oregon and Idaho. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Overnight elevated convection is expected to persist into beginning of the forecast period over Oregon. However, the greatest chance for thunderstorm development will be later in the afternoon (20-21Z), when a mix of scattered wet/dry thunderstorms is forecast to develop over south-central Oregon and progress northeastward into western Idaho. Fuels guidance shows ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile, so even though PWAT values of 0.6-0.9 inches and relatively slow storm motions of 20 kts will support at least some wetting rainfall, lightning-based ignitions will still be possible. ...Dry/Windy... Localized elevated conditions are possible across eastern Nevada and western Utah, but will mostly be confined to diurnally/terrain-driven corridors. These conditions also overlap with recent wetting rainfall and fuels that are only modestly dry. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central/southern Plains. Damaging winds and occasional large hail should be the main threats. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South... A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. Extensive convection will probably be ongoing Friday morning across the OH Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms may occur through the day, though the primary severe threat is expected with separate thunderstorms that will develop in the wake of early-day convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating of a rather moist low-level airmass across a broad area will support pockets of moderate to locally strong instability by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys. Moderate mid-level flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment should eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. However, details of thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain rather unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak low-level convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader Marginal Risk area. ...Ozarks into the Central/Southern Plains... The trailing portion of the cold front should extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development may occur in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Other isolated activity may develop across the central High Plains in eastern CO into western KS. Moderate to strong buoyancy and supportive deep-layer shear across these areas should foster a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and large hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon through the evening. ...Northern High Plains... High-based convection may develop over the northern Rockies in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough, and subsequently move across the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture and instability are forecast to remain limited, but steepened low-level lapse rates could allow for isolated strong/gusty winds as this activity moves east-northeastward through the early evening. At this point, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe wind probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central/southern Plains. Damaging winds and occasional large hail should be the main threats. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South... A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. Extensive convection will probably be ongoing Friday morning across the OH Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms may occur through the day, though the primary severe threat is expected with separate thunderstorms that will develop in the wake of early-day convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating of a rather moist low-level airmass across a broad area will support pockets of moderate to locally strong instability by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys. Moderate mid-level flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment should eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. However, details of thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain rather unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak low-level convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader Marginal Risk area. ...Ozarks into the Central/Southern Plains... The trailing portion of the cold front should extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development may occur in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Other isolated activity may develop across the central High Plains in eastern CO into western KS. Moderate to strong buoyancy and supportive deep-layer shear across these areas should foster a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and large hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon through the evening. ...Northern High Plains... High-based convection may develop over the northern Rockies in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough, and subsequently move across the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture and instability are forecast to remain limited, but steepened low-level lapse rates could allow for isolated strong/gusty winds as this activity moves east-northeastward through the early evening. At this point, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe wind probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central/southern Plains. Damaging winds and occasional large hail should be the main threats. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South... A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. Extensive convection will probably be ongoing Friday morning across the OH Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms may occur through the day, though the primary severe threat is expected with separate thunderstorms that will develop in the wake of early-day convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating of a rather moist low-level airmass across a broad area will support pockets of moderate to locally strong instability by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys. Moderate mid-level flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment should eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. However, details of thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain rather unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak low-level convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader Marginal Risk area. ...Ozarks into the Central/Southern Plains... The trailing portion of the cold front should extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development may occur in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Other isolated activity may develop across the central High Plains in eastern CO into western KS. Moderate to strong buoyancy and supportive deep-layer shear across these areas should foster a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and large hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon through the evening. ...Northern High Plains... High-based convection may develop over the northern Rockies in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough, and subsequently move across the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture and instability are forecast to remain limited, but steepened low-level lapse rates could allow for isolated strong/gusty winds as this activity moves east-northeastward through the early evening. At this point, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe wind probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday over portions of the Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and potentially across parts of the Ozarks into the central/southern Plains. Damaging winds and occasional large hail should be the main threats. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South... A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and OH Valley on Friday. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow should be present from the east-central Plains to parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Related deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization with thunderstorms that can develop through the period. A weak surface low should likewise move slowly eastward over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. A weak front/wind shift is forecast to extend south-southwestward from this surface low. Extensive convection will probably be ongoing Friday morning across the OH Valley vicinity. Some intensification of morning storms may occur through the day, though the primary severe threat is expected with separate thunderstorms that will develop in the wake of early-day convection during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating of a rather moist low-level airmass across a broad area will support pockets of moderate to locally strong instability by late afternoon across parts of the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys. Moderate mid-level flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization, and a conditionally favorable severe environment should eventually develop over a broad region near/ahead of the front. However, details of thunderstorm initiation and evolution remain rather unclear, due to the influence of morning convection and generally weak low-level convergence near the surface front. However, a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve during the afternoon and evening, posing a threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in the location of one or more favored corridors of severe potential within the broader Marginal Risk area. ...Ozarks into the Central/Southern Plains... The trailing portion of the cold front should extend from southern MO into southern KS/northern OK by late Friday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development may occur in the vicinity of the front, with some signal for convection to persist into Friday night as it moves east-southeastward. Other isolated activity may develop across the central High Plains in eastern CO into western KS. Moderate to strong buoyancy and supportive deep-layer shear across these areas should foster a threat of isolated strong/damaging gusts and large hail with the more robust storms from late Friday afternoon through the evening. ...Northern High Plains... High-based convection may develop over the northern Rockies in advance of a mid-level shortwave trough, and subsequently move across the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture and instability are forecast to remain limited, but steepened low-level lapse rates could allow for isolated strong/gusty winds as this activity moves east-northeastward through the early evening. At this point, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe wind probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/15/2024 Read more

MD 1905 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1905 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Kansas into west-central and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622... Valid 150432Z - 150600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 continues. SUMMARY...Local risk for damaging wind gusts continues from northwestern Missouri into eastern Kansas. Risk should begin to gradually diminish in the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a fairly well-developed line of storms -- with some embedded bowing -- moving eastward across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Less-organized convection -- where local risk for gusty winds is ongoing -- extends southwestward to near the ICT (Wichita, KS) area. The greatest short-term threat is expected in/around the Kansas City metro area, where the most unstable airmass (around 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per RAP-based objective analysis) is indicated. Here, local gusts in excess of 60 to 65 MPH will be possible in the next hour or so. With time, the cooling/stabilizing boundary layer along with lesser instability with eastward extent suggests that storms will begin to gradually diminish in intensity, and thus severe potential. As such, the current 15/06Z expiration of WW 622 seems appropriate, though a local extension in time could be implemented for a few counties south/east of the existing watch if trends warrant. ..Goss.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37999576 37809684 38449677 39939454 40309418 40659348 40499272 39469270 38389418 37999576 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley today ahead of a short-wave trough that will approach western IA/northwest MO by early evening. Early in the period, a weak short-wave trough will be responsible for inducing multiple thunderstorm clusters across the Midwest, aided by LLJ that will translate into Lower MI by late afternoon. This early-day convection will be an extension of ongoing thunderstorm clusters that currently extend from central IA into eastern KS. This activity will propagate downstream as the LLJ shifts into the Great Lakes ahead of the weak disturbance. While locally severe gusts and hail could accompany this activity, considerable amount of precip and modest lapse rates do not favor widespread severe. Of more concern, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Latest model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will materialize by mid afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southeast IA. High-level diffluent flow will favor storm-top venting and scattered robust thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the short wave. Thunderstorms should concentrate along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. Dry adiabatic 0-3km lapse rates favor strong downdrafts as PW values will be seasonally high (1.5-1.75 inches). ...New England region... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley today ahead of a short-wave trough that will approach western IA/northwest MO by early evening. Early in the period, a weak short-wave trough will be responsible for inducing multiple thunderstorm clusters across the Midwest, aided by LLJ that will translate into Lower MI by late afternoon. This early-day convection will be an extension of ongoing thunderstorm clusters that currently extend from central IA into eastern KS. This activity will propagate downstream as the LLJ shifts into the Great Lakes ahead of the weak disturbance. While locally severe gusts and hail could accompany this activity, considerable amount of precip and modest lapse rates do not favor widespread severe. Of more concern, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Latest model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will materialize by mid afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southeast IA. High-level diffluent flow will favor storm-top venting and scattered robust thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the short wave. Thunderstorms should concentrate along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. Dry adiabatic 0-3km lapse rates favor strong downdrafts as PW values will be seasonally high (1.5-1.75 inches). ...New England region... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley today ahead of a short-wave trough that will approach western IA/northwest MO by early evening. Early in the period, a weak short-wave trough will be responsible for inducing multiple thunderstorm clusters across the Midwest, aided by LLJ that will translate into Lower MI by late afternoon. This early-day convection will be an extension of ongoing thunderstorm clusters that currently extend from central IA into eastern KS. This activity will propagate downstream as the LLJ shifts into the Great Lakes ahead of the weak disturbance. While locally severe gusts and hail could accompany this activity, considerable amount of precip and modest lapse rates do not favor widespread severe. Of more concern, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Latest model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will materialize by mid afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southeast IA. High-level diffluent flow will favor storm-top venting and scattered robust thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the short wave. Thunderstorms should concentrate along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. Dry adiabatic 0-3km lapse rates favor strong downdrafts as PW values will be seasonally high (1.5-1.75 inches). ...New England region... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley today ahead of a short-wave trough that will approach western IA/northwest MO by early evening. Early in the period, a weak short-wave trough will be responsible for inducing multiple thunderstorm clusters across the Midwest, aided by LLJ that will translate into Lower MI by late afternoon. This early-day convection will be an extension of ongoing thunderstorm clusters that currently extend from central IA into eastern KS. This activity will propagate downstream as the LLJ shifts into the Great Lakes ahead of the weak disturbance. While locally severe gusts and hail could accompany this activity, considerable amount of precip and modest lapse rates do not favor widespread severe. Of more concern, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Latest model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will materialize by mid afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southeast IA. High-level diffluent flow will favor storm-top venting and scattered robust thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the short wave. Thunderstorms should concentrate along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. Dry adiabatic 0-3km lapse rates favor strong downdrafts as PW values will be seasonally high (1.5-1.75 inches). ...New England region... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest, mid Mississippi Valley, and central Plains on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats, but a couple tornadoes may also occur. A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Northeast. ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Weak mid-level height falls will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley today ahead of a short-wave trough that will approach western IA/northwest MO by early evening. Early in the period, a weak short-wave trough will be responsible for inducing multiple thunderstorm clusters across the Midwest, aided by LLJ that will translate into Lower MI by late afternoon. This early-day convection will be an extension of ongoing thunderstorm clusters that currently extend from central IA into eastern KS. This activity will propagate downstream as the LLJ shifts into the Great Lakes ahead of the weak disturbance. While locally severe gusts and hail could accompany this activity, considerable amount of precip and modest lapse rates do not favor widespread severe. Of more concern, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across much of the Plains into portions of the mid MS Valley. As a result, strong buoyancy will develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Latest model guidance suggests very strong instability (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg) will materialize by mid afternoon from portions of eastern KS/MO into southeast IA. High-level diffluent flow will favor storm-top venting and scattered robust thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the short wave. Thunderstorms should concentrate along a synoptic front that will arc from southeast MN-eastern IA-northern MO-southeast KS-northern OK by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be adequate for supercells and wind/hail can be expected with the most robust updrafts. High-based thunderstorms are also expected to develop along the trailing boundary into the southern Plains where surface temperatures will easily rise through the upper 90s to near 100F. Dry adiabatic 0-3km lapse rates favor strong downdrafts as PW values will be seasonally high (1.5-1.75 inches). ...New England region... Upper troughing will hold across New England today with cool mid-level temperatures and modest northerly flow at 500mb. Strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19z and scattered convection is expected to develop within a sheared environment that favors robust multi-cell updrafts. Some of this activity could generate strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Convection will be diurnally driven and should weaken with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 08/15/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150519
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure will likely form during the next couple
of days well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week
while the system moves westward. Information on this system can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure will likely form this weekend well offshore
of southwestern Mexico. Some subsequent slow development is
possible, and a tropical depression could form early next week as
the low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Kelly

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N EMP TO 40 NE STJ. ..GOSS..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC017-045-059-087-091-103-111-139-177-209-150540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON OSAGE SHAWNEE WYANDOTTE MOC021-025-033-047-049-061-063-079-081-095-107-117-129-165-177- 150540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB GRUNDY HARRISON JACKSON LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON MERCER PLATTE RAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N EMP TO 40 NE STJ. ..GOSS..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC017-045-059-087-091-103-111-139-177-209-150540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON OSAGE SHAWNEE WYANDOTTE MOC021-025-033-047-049-061-063-079-081-095-107-117-129-165-177- 150540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB GRUNDY HARRISON JACKSON LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON MERCER PLATTE RAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 622 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 142230Z - 150600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwestern Iowa Central to northeastern Kansas Northwestern Missouri East-central and southeastern Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the western end of the watch and move roughly eastward while increasing in coverage through the evening. Large to isolated very large hail is possible early, while the severe-gust threat increases into evening. A tornado or two also is possible -- mainly over a part of the watch across northeastern KS, near an outflow boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southeast of Manhattan KS to 35 miles north northeast of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1904 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1904 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0920 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska...northeastern Kansas...southwestern Iowa...and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622... Valid 150220Z - 150415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 continues. SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues across the Middle Missouri Valley area. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows strong/locally severe storms ongoing within WW 622, though gradually growing upscale into a more linear configuration as compared to earlier. This has lessened the tornado threat that existed near the remnant outflow in northeastern Kansas, with risk now primarily in the form of hail, and locally strong/gusty winds. As the boundary layer gradually stabilizes, risk for severe-caliber wind gusts should slowly lessen. Still, some eventual expansion of the watch eastward may be needed a bit later this evening, as storms near the eastern edge of the WW. ..Goss.. 08/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38879796 39679714 40259657 40629654 40919709 41289698 41919562 41819344 41649267 40779281 38829479 38879796 Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N EMP TO 40 WSW LWD TO 10 WNW DSM. ..GOSS..08/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC121-159-175-150440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON RINGGOLD UNION KSC005-017-043-045-059-085-087-091-103-111-115-139-177-209- 150440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON CHASE DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MARION OSAGE SHAWNEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-095-107-117-129- 165-177-227-150440- MO Read more