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A sheep and lamb producer near Bentonville has drying ponds, drying trees that frequently offer shade for the livestock, and dry pastures earlier than anticipated. The farmer had to begin feeding hay in August rather than November like last year. It costs roughly $50 daily to feed the sheep hay. The early expense led to livestock sales to lower his inventory. Raising the price of the lamb meat is another option if drought persists. Cattle farmers were also opting to sell livestock early rather than feed them hay longer than normal. KFSM-TV CBS 5 Fort Smith (Ark.), Oct 28, 2024

A countywide burn ban was in effect for Chester County for the next month due to historic drought and the rising fire danger. Precipitation has been less than half of normal and parts of the area were enduring what may be their driest October on record, according to the National Weather Service. The burn ban will remain in effect through Monday, Nov. 25. Delaware County has a similar burn ban. West Chester, PA Patch, Oct 28, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Western CONUS upper trough is shifting east early this evening, and significant mid-level height falls are now spreading across the lower CO River Valley into the Great Basin. Leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be partly responsible for weak frontal convection that currently extends across eastern NV-northern UT-central WY. Occasional flashes of lightning may persist with this frontal activity as the main wind shift sags southeast. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to increase and focus across the upper Great Lakes later this evening. Both GRB and MPX soundings exhibited modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, but profiles have yet to moisten sufficiently and buoyancy remains negligible. With time, elevated profiles should become more unstable, and lightning is expected with deeper convection. ..Darrow.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Western CONUS upper trough is shifting east early this evening, and significant mid-level height falls are now spreading across the lower CO River Valley into the Great Basin. Leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be partly responsible for weak frontal convection that currently extends across eastern NV-northern UT-central WY. Occasional flashes of lightning may persist with this frontal activity as the main wind shift sags southeast. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to increase and focus across the upper Great Lakes later this evening. Both GRB and MPX soundings exhibited modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, but profiles have yet to moisten sufficiently and buoyancy remains negligible. With time, elevated profiles should become more unstable, and lightning is expected with deeper convection. ..Darrow.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Western CONUS upper trough is shifting east early this evening, and significant mid-level height falls are now spreading across the lower CO River Valley into the Great Basin. Leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be partly responsible for weak frontal convection that currently extends across eastern NV-northern UT-central WY. Occasional flashes of lightning may persist with this frontal activity as the main wind shift sags southeast. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to increase and focus across the upper Great Lakes later this evening. Both GRB and MPX soundings exhibited modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, but profiles have yet to moisten sufficiently and buoyancy remains negligible. With time, elevated profiles should become more unstable, and lightning is expected with deeper convection. ..Darrow.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Western CONUS upper trough is shifting east early this evening, and significant mid-level height falls are now spreading across the lower CO River Valley into the Great Basin. Leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be partly responsible for weak frontal convection that currently extends across eastern NV-northern UT-central WY. Occasional flashes of lightning may persist with this frontal activity as the main wind shift sags southeast. Downstream, low-level warm advection is expected to increase and focus across the upper Great Lakes later this evening. Both GRB and MPX soundings exhibited modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, but profiles have yet to moisten sufficiently and buoyancy remains negligible. With time, elevated profiles should become more unstable, and lightning is expected with deeper convection. ..Darrow.. 10/29/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Although the chances of development
appear to be decreasing, a tropical depression could still form in a
few days while the system moves westward at about 15 mph. This
system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Basin by the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central East Pacific:
A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is
possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly to
the west-northwest. By the end of the week, however, upper-level
winds should become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 28 21:55:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 28 21:55:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through the remainder of the week. An upper-level trough will eject into the Plains late this week and continue on into the Northeast. Farther west, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and gradually shift eastward this weekend into next week. Fire weather concerns will be focused on Wednesday. Thereafter, cool/wet conditions across much of the CONUS are expected to mitigate larger-scale fire weather concerns. Coincidentally, ensemble forecasts show low probability of critical fire weather through early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected as westerly downslope winds increase behind a Pacific front on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds and a surface low in the southern Plains will drive around 20 mph winds with near 15% RH. The duration of these conditions is the main uncertainty that precludes an increase in critical probabilities. Depending on the evolution of the upper-level pattern over the weekend into early next week, some increase in dry/windy conditions is possible. However, given expected precipitation in the region as well as uncertainty in the overall pattern, confidence in critical fire weather is low. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. While some locally elevated conditions could develop, potential for critical fire weather appears low given the precipitation that may accompany the upper-level trough. Models suggest another period of offshore winds may develop early next week. However, the degree of upper-level support differs quite markedly. Furthermore, additional precipitation is possible as the large-scale trough moves over the region during the weekend. Trends will be monitored, but critical fire weather potential also appears low early next week as well. ..Wendt.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through the remainder of the week. An upper-level trough will eject into the Plains late this week and continue on into the Northeast. Farther west, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and gradually shift eastward this weekend into next week. Fire weather concerns will be focused on Wednesday. Thereafter, cool/wet conditions across much of the CONUS are expected to mitigate larger-scale fire weather concerns. Coincidentally, ensemble forecasts show low probability of critical fire weather through early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected as westerly downslope winds increase behind a Pacific front on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds and a surface low in the southern Plains will drive around 20 mph winds with near 15% RH. The duration of these conditions is the main uncertainty that precludes an increase in critical probabilities. Depending on the evolution of the upper-level pattern over the weekend into early next week, some increase in dry/windy conditions is possible. However, given expected precipitation in the region as well as uncertainty in the overall pattern, confidence in critical fire weather is low. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. While some locally elevated conditions could develop, potential for critical fire weather appears low given the precipitation that may accompany the upper-level trough. Models suggest another period of offshore winds may develop early next week. However, the degree of upper-level support differs quite markedly. Furthermore, additional precipitation is possible as the large-scale trough moves over the region during the weekend. Trends will be monitored, but critical fire weather potential also appears low early next week as well. ..Wendt.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through the remainder of the week. An upper-level trough will eject into the Plains late this week and continue on into the Northeast. Farther west, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and gradually shift eastward this weekend into next week. Fire weather concerns will be focused on Wednesday. Thereafter, cool/wet conditions across much of the CONUS are expected to mitigate larger-scale fire weather concerns. Coincidentally, ensemble forecasts show low probability of critical fire weather through early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected as westerly downslope winds increase behind a Pacific front on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds and a surface low in the southern Plains will drive around 20 mph winds with near 15% RH. The duration of these conditions is the main uncertainty that precludes an increase in critical probabilities. Depending on the evolution of the upper-level pattern over the weekend into early next week, some increase in dry/windy conditions is possible. However, given expected precipitation in the region as well as uncertainty in the overall pattern, confidence in critical fire weather is low. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. While some locally elevated conditions could develop, potential for critical fire weather appears low given the precipitation that may accompany the upper-level trough. Models suggest another period of offshore winds may develop early next week. However, the degree of upper-level support differs quite markedly. Furthermore, additional precipitation is possible as the large-scale trough moves over the region during the weekend. Trends will be monitored, but critical fire weather potential also appears low early next week as well. ..Wendt.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through the remainder of the week. An upper-level trough will eject into the Plains late this week and continue on into the Northeast. Farther west, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and gradually shift eastward this weekend into next week. Fire weather concerns will be focused on Wednesday. Thereafter, cool/wet conditions across much of the CONUS are expected to mitigate larger-scale fire weather concerns. Coincidentally, ensemble forecasts show low probability of critical fire weather through early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected as westerly downslope winds increase behind a Pacific front on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds and a surface low in the southern Plains will drive around 20 mph winds with near 15% RH. The duration of these conditions is the main uncertainty that precludes an increase in critical probabilities. Depending on the evolution of the upper-level pattern over the weekend into early next week, some increase in dry/windy conditions is possible. However, given expected precipitation in the region as well as uncertainty in the overall pattern, confidence in critical fire weather is low. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. While some locally elevated conditions could develop, potential for critical fire weather appears low given the precipitation that may accompany the upper-level trough. Models suggest another period of offshore winds may develop early next week. However, the degree of upper-level support differs quite markedly. Furthermore, additional precipitation is possible as the large-scale trough moves over the region during the weekend. Trends will be monitored, but critical fire weather potential also appears low early next week as well. ..Wendt.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through the remainder of the week. An upper-level trough will eject into the Plains late this week and continue on into the Northeast. Farther west, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and gradually shift eastward this weekend into next week. Fire weather concerns will be focused on Wednesday. Thereafter, cool/wet conditions across much of the CONUS are expected to mitigate larger-scale fire weather concerns. Coincidentally, ensemble forecasts show low probability of critical fire weather through early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected as westerly downslope winds increase behind a Pacific front on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds and a surface low in the southern Plains will drive around 20 mph winds with near 15% RH. The duration of these conditions is the main uncertainty that precludes an increase in critical probabilities. Depending on the evolution of the upper-level pattern over the weekend into early next week, some increase in dry/windy conditions is possible. However, given expected precipitation in the region as well as uncertainty in the overall pattern, confidence in critical fire weather is low. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. While some locally elevated conditions could develop, potential for critical fire weather appears low given the precipitation that may accompany the upper-level trough. Models suggest another period of offshore winds may develop early next week. However, the degree of upper-level support differs quite markedly. Furthermore, additional precipitation is possible as the large-scale trough moves over the region during the weekend. Trends will be monitored, but critical fire weather potential also appears low early next week as well. ..Wendt.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through the remainder of the week. An upper-level trough will eject into the Plains late this week and continue on into the Northeast. Farther west, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and gradually shift eastward this weekend into next week. Fire weather concerns will be focused on Wednesday. Thereafter, cool/wet conditions across much of the CONUS are expected to mitigate larger-scale fire weather concerns. Coincidentally, ensemble forecasts show low probability of critical fire weather through early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected as westerly downslope winds increase behind a Pacific front on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds and a surface low in the southern Plains will drive around 20 mph winds with near 15% RH. The duration of these conditions is the main uncertainty that precludes an increase in critical probabilities. Depending on the evolution of the upper-level pattern over the weekend into early next week, some increase in dry/windy conditions is possible. However, given expected precipitation in the region as well as uncertainty in the overall pattern, confidence in critical fire weather is low. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. While some locally elevated conditions could develop, potential for critical fire weather appears low given the precipitation that may accompany the upper-level trough. Models suggest another period of offshore winds may develop early next week. However, the degree of upper-level support differs quite markedly. Furthermore, additional precipitation is possible as the large-scale trough moves over the region during the weekend. Trends will be monitored, but critical fire weather potential also appears low early next week as well. ..Wendt.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through the remainder of the week. An upper-level trough will eject into the Plains late this week and continue on into the Northeast. Farther west, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and gradually shift eastward this weekend into next week. Fire weather concerns will be focused on Wednesday. Thereafter, cool/wet conditions across much of the CONUS are expected to mitigate larger-scale fire weather concerns. Coincidentally, ensemble forecasts show low probability of critical fire weather through early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected as westerly downslope winds increase behind a Pacific front on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds and a surface low in the southern Plains will drive around 20 mph winds with near 15% RH. The duration of these conditions is the main uncertainty that precludes an increase in critical probabilities. Depending on the evolution of the upper-level pattern over the weekend into early next week, some increase in dry/windy conditions is possible. However, given expected precipitation in the region as well as uncertainty in the overall pattern, confidence in critical fire weather is low. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. While some locally elevated conditions could develop, potential for critical fire weather appears low given the precipitation that may accompany the upper-level trough. Models suggest another period of offshore winds may develop early next week. However, the degree of upper-level support differs quite markedly. Furthermore, additional precipitation is possible as the large-scale trough moves over the region during the weekend. Trends will be monitored, but critical fire weather potential also appears low early next week as well. ..Wendt.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEYS TO KANSAS/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER AREA REMOVAL IN THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may begin late in the period from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level 1/MRGL risk for Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified flow field aloft will reside across the U.S. Tuesday, as a deep trough slowly crosses the Intermountain West through the period. By Wednesday morning, the trough should extend from the northern High Plains to the Four Corners area. Meanwhile, ridging will amplify in the eastern U.S., in response to the advance of the western trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Four Corners states through the first half of the period, ahead of the progressing upper system. A frontal wave should evolve over the central High Plains, and is expected to then shift north-northeastward across Nebraska, reaching the southern Minnesota vicinity by 12Z Tuesday morning. This will allow continued eastward advance of the trailing front, which should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley (western Iowa) vicinity south-southwestward to southern New Mexico/far West Texas by the end of the period. ...Upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward to the northwestern Oklahoma vicinity... Ahead of the sharpening cold front becoming established across the Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night, a warm/modestly moist pre-frontal boundary layer is expected to evolve, beneath a fairly pronounced warm/capping layer aloft. Much of the large-scale ascent associated with the advancing upper system should remain to the cool side of the front, and thus expect the capping layer to be very slow to weaken/erode. Low-level warm advection ahead of the track of the surface low may support some primarily elevated convective development overnight, where modest elevated CAPE may be sufficient to permit a few stronger updrafts. Limited potential for hail nearing severe levels could accompany one or two of the strongest storms. A strong gust cannot be ruled out, should a less-elevated storm nearer the surface boundary evolve. Farther southwestward into the Plains, any potential storm development should be limited to the last 3 or 4 hours of the period, at the earliest -- due to the persistent capping. With that said, given gradually steepening lapse rates/increasing CAPE, and the presence of strong southwesterly flow aloft atop the frontal zone, low/conditional risk for a couple of storms capable of producing marginal hail/wind cannot be ruled out. A such, will retain an elongated Level 1/MRGL risk area across central portions of the country to reflect these potential convective scenarios that may evolve prior to the end of the period. ..Goss.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEYS TO KANSAS/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER AREA REMOVAL IN THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may begin late in the period from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level 1/MRGL risk for Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified flow field aloft will reside across the U.S. Tuesday, as a deep trough slowly crosses the Intermountain West through the period. By Wednesday morning, the trough should extend from the northern High Plains to the Four Corners area. Meanwhile, ridging will amplify in the eastern U.S., in response to the advance of the western trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Four Corners states through the first half of the period, ahead of the progressing upper system. A frontal wave should evolve over the central High Plains, and is expected to then shift north-northeastward across Nebraska, reaching the southern Minnesota vicinity by 12Z Tuesday morning. This will allow continued eastward advance of the trailing front, which should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley (western Iowa) vicinity south-southwestward to southern New Mexico/far West Texas by the end of the period. ...Upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward to the northwestern Oklahoma vicinity... Ahead of the sharpening cold front becoming established across the Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night, a warm/modestly moist pre-frontal boundary layer is expected to evolve, beneath a fairly pronounced warm/capping layer aloft. Much of the large-scale ascent associated with the advancing upper system should remain to the cool side of the front, and thus expect the capping layer to be very slow to weaken/erode. Low-level warm advection ahead of the track of the surface low may support some primarily elevated convective development overnight, where modest elevated CAPE may be sufficient to permit a few stronger updrafts. Limited potential for hail nearing severe levels could accompany one or two of the strongest storms. A strong gust cannot be ruled out, should a less-elevated storm nearer the surface boundary evolve. Farther southwestward into the Plains, any potential storm development should be limited to the last 3 or 4 hours of the period, at the earliest -- due to the persistent capping. With that said, given gradually steepening lapse rates/increasing CAPE, and the presence of strong southwesterly flow aloft atop the frontal zone, low/conditional risk for a couple of storms capable of producing marginal hail/wind cannot be ruled out. A such, will retain an elongated Level 1/MRGL risk area across central portions of the country to reflect these potential convective scenarios that may evolve prior to the end of the period. ..Goss.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEYS TO KANSAS/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER AREA REMOVAL IN THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may begin late in the period from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level 1/MRGL risk for Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified flow field aloft will reside across the U.S. Tuesday, as a deep trough slowly crosses the Intermountain West through the period. By Wednesday morning, the trough should extend from the northern High Plains to the Four Corners area. Meanwhile, ridging will amplify in the eastern U.S., in response to the advance of the western trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Four Corners states through the first half of the period, ahead of the progressing upper system. A frontal wave should evolve over the central High Plains, and is expected to then shift north-northeastward across Nebraska, reaching the southern Minnesota vicinity by 12Z Tuesday morning. This will allow continued eastward advance of the trailing front, which should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley (western Iowa) vicinity south-southwestward to southern New Mexico/far West Texas by the end of the period. ...Upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward to the northwestern Oklahoma vicinity... Ahead of the sharpening cold front becoming established across the Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night, a warm/modestly moist pre-frontal boundary layer is expected to evolve, beneath a fairly pronounced warm/capping layer aloft. Much of the large-scale ascent associated with the advancing upper system should remain to the cool side of the front, and thus expect the capping layer to be very slow to weaken/erode. Low-level warm advection ahead of the track of the surface low may support some primarily elevated convective development overnight, where modest elevated CAPE may be sufficient to permit a few stronger updrafts. Limited potential for hail nearing severe levels could accompany one or two of the strongest storms. A strong gust cannot be ruled out, should a less-elevated storm nearer the surface boundary evolve. Farther southwestward into the Plains, any potential storm development should be limited to the last 3 or 4 hours of the period, at the earliest -- due to the persistent capping. With that said, given gradually steepening lapse rates/increasing CAPE, and the presence of strong southwesterly flow aloft atop the frontal zone, low/conditional risk for a couple of storms capable of producing marginal hail/wind cannot be ruled out. A such, will retain an elongated Level 1/MRGL risk area across central portions of the country to reflect these potential convective scenarios that may evolve prior to the end of the period. ..Goss.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEYS TO KANSAS/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER AREA REMOVAL IN THE NORTHEAST ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may begin late in the period from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level 1/MRGL risk for Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified flow field aloft will reside across the U.S. Tuesday, as a deep trough slowly crosses the Intermountain West through the period. By Wednesday morning, the trough should extend from the northern High Plains to the Four Corners area. Meanwhile, ridging will amplify in the eastern U.S., in response to the advance of the western trough. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Four Corners states through the first half of the period, ahead of the progressing upper system. A frontal wave should evolve over the central High Plains, and is expected to then shift north-northeastward across Nebraska, reaching the southern Minnesota vicinity by 12Z Tuesday morning. This will allow continued eastward advance of the trailing front, which should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley (western Iowa) vicinity south-southwestward to southern New Mexico/far West Texas by the end of the period. ...Upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward to the northwestern Oklahoma vicinity... Ahead of the sharpening cold front becoming established across the Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night, a warm/modestly moist pre-frontal boundary layer is expected to evolve, beneath a fairly pronounced warm/capping layer aloft. Much of the large-scale ascent associated with the advancing upper system should remain to the cool side of the front, and thus expect the capping layer to be very slow to weaken/erode. Low-level warm advection ahead of the track of the surface low may support some primarily elevated convective development overnight, where modest elevated CAPE may be sufficient to permit a few stronger updrafts. Limited potential for hail nearing severe levels could accompany one or two of the strongest storms. A strong gust cannot be ruled out, should a less-elevated storm nearer the surface boundary evolve. Farther southwestward into the Plains, any potential storm development should be limited to the last 3 or 4 hours of the period, at the earliest -- due to the persistent capping. With that said, given gradually steepening lapse rates/increasing CAPE, and the presence of strong southwesterly flow aloft atop the frontal zone, low/conditional risk for a couple of storms capable of producing marginal hail/wind cannot be ruled out. A such, will retain an elongated Level 1/MRGL risk area across central portions of the country to reflect these potential convective scenarios that may evolve prior to the end of the period. ..Goss.. 10/28/2024 Read more